Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is projected to reach 100,000 points by January 2029, as stated by Trump, with the index recently surpassing 50,000 points for the first time [1] - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded significantly, closing up 1.76%, while the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI indices rose by 3.89% and 4.10%, respectively [1] - The Japanese ruling coalition secured a majority in the recent elections, with promises to stimulate the economy, leading to a surge in the Japanese stock market [1] Gold and Mining Stocks - Gold stocks continued to rebound, with the WanGuo Gold Group rising over 8% [2] - Zijin Mining announced a three-year production plan aiming to rank among the top three globally in copper and gold production by 2028, resulting in a stock increase of over 5% [2] AI and Technology Sector - Major tech companies including Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are expected to have a combined capital expenditure of $660 billion this year [3] - Nvidia is anticipated to report strong earnings, with Goldman Sachs raising its price target to $250, indicating a potential 35% upside from last week's closing price [2][3] Renewable Energy and Power Generation - North America is shifting investments in electricity generation from gas turbines to gas internal combustion engines and SOFCs, with stocks like Eagle Precision and Dongfang Electric seeing significant gains [4] - Dongfang Electric announced the commissioning of Ethiopia's largest wind power project, contributing to a stock increase of over 14% [4] AI Applications and Content Creation - ByteDance launched the Seedance 2.0 video generation model, which can create high-quality videos in 60 seconds, positively impacting related stocks like IP reserve holder Yuedong Group, which rose nearly 10% [5] - The copyright technology service provider for short dramas, Fubo Group, also saw a stock increase of over 7% [5] Real Estate Sector - Major real estate companies are undergoing organizational restructuring to adapt to market conditions, with firms like China Overseas Development and China Resources Land implementing significant changes [8] - These strategic adjustments are expected to enhance performance and improve valuations in the sector [8] Entertainment Sector - Cat's Eye Entertainment reported that the pre-sale box office for the 2026 Spring Festival exceeded 60 million yuan, with expectations for strong performance in upcoming films [9] - The company is heavily involved in the production and promotion of major films, which is likely to boost its revenue [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector, specifically highlighting the promotion of "good housing" construction in Fujian [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates a seasonal decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction area in 20 cities decreasing by 9% week-on-week but increasing by 147% year-on-year. The total transaction area for new housing was 170 million square meters [22][21]. - The second-hand housing market showed a similar trend, with a 7% week-on-week decrease but a 174% year-on-year increase in transaction area, totaling 199 million square meters [27][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing three key issues in the real estate market: declining new housing demand, unresolved inventory, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [6]. Industry Data - The real estate sector consists of 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,270.7 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 1,217.1 billion yuan [2]. - The sector's performance in the past month shows an absolute increase of 2.3%, a 6-month increase of 7.4%, and a 12-month increase of 12.8% [3]. Policy Developments - Fujian province has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on promoting housing consumption and inventory reduction, including optimizing shared ownership policies and encouraging the purchase of existing homes [15][18]. - Gansu province has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, increasing the maximum loan amounts for single and married contributors [15][18]. Sales Performance - In the first week of February, the average daily transaction area for new housing in 20 cities was 24.3 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction area of 838 million square meters year-to-date, reflecting a 28% year-on-year decrease [22][21]. - The report notes that the average transaction area for second-hand housing in 11 cities was 28.5 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 1,067 million square meters year-to-date, indicating a 23% year-on-year increase [27][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate sector: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable income assets such as leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies that enhance transaction efficiency [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector, specifically highlighting the promotion of "good housing" construction in Fujian [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates a seasonal decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction volume in 20 cities decreasing by 9% week-on-week but increasing by 147% year-on-year. Second-hand housing transactions in 11 cities also saw a week-on-week decrease of 7% but a year-on-year increase of 174% [6][21][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing three key issues in the real estate market: the decline in new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,270.717 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1,217.136 billion yuan [2]. Sales Performance - In the sixth week, the average daily transaction area for new housing in 20 cities was 24.3 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 170 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 147% [22][21]. - The average daily transaction area for second-hand housing in 11 cities was 28.5 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 199 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 174% [27][30]. Policy News - Fujian Province has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on promoting housing consumption and inventory reduction, including optimizing shared ownership policies and encouraging the purchase of existing homes [15][18]. - Gansu Province has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, increasing the maximum loan amounts for single and married contributors [15][18]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate sector: precision in land acquisition for developers, investment in leading shopping centers, and monitoring leading real estate agencies for efficiency improvements [6].

2月6日上午9时30分，由山西晚报社主办的"一马当先看楼市"——太原楼市新春直播季第四场活动在山 西晚报社新闻会客厅圆满举行。作为系列直播活动的收官之作，本场活动特邀山西财经大学管理科学与 工程学院房地产开发与管理专业负责人、副教授王秀燕，以及2025年太原楼市单盘销售冠军华润置地太 原瑞府销售负责人王少雄、亚军中铁屿逸书院项目营销负责人马瑞共聚一堂，围绕"淡市之中卓越楼盘 何以穿越周期"主题，展开深度对话。 直播通过山河+APP、山河视频（抖音、快手）、山西晚报视频号、戎姐看房微信公众号等多平台同步 推送，为观众呈现了一场兼具理论高度与实践洞察的市场剖析。 1 硬实力、好产品 构筑傲人销售成绩 活动伊始，新闻会客厅内外的嘉宾、粉丝及网友们便将焦点投向2025年太原楼市的"明星项目"。在全国 楼市继续盘整、量价回落的2025年，华润置地太原瑞府、中铁屿逸书院凭借卓越市场表现脱颖而出，分 别以太原市单盘销售冠军、单盘销售亚军成为全城的明星楼盘。同时，太原瑞府还是全城单价超17000 元项目的销售冠军；屿逸书院则是全城单价不足17000元项目的销售冠军，并获得西中环板块及煤气化 板块的两大区域销售冠军。两大项目的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the significance of Shanghai's new policy to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental housing, indicating a strong signal in a declining market. The policy aims to link demand for affordable housing with improvement needs, potentially activating the market by directing purchasing power to higher-priced new and second-hand homes [11][12] - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate is akin to investing in economic trends. The competitive landscape is expected to improve, benefiting leading state-owned enterprises and quality developers [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier cities and select second- and third-tier cities, as this combination has shown better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections 1. Shanghai's Housing Acquisition Policy - Shanghai has initiated a program to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental purposes, with pilot areas including Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui, each having distinct acquisition criteria and models [11] - The policy aims to match housing types with talent needs, focusing on low-priced, small-sized properties to stimulate market activity [12] 2. Market Review - The report notes that the real estate index has shown minimal change, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.34 percentage points. A total of 73 stocks in the real estate sector increased in value, while 40 stocks decreased [15] - The top-performing stocks included Jinglan Technology and Qianjing Garden, with significant weekly gains [21] 3. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week leading up to February 6, new housing transactions in 30 cities totaled 131.2 million square meters, a 5.2% decrease from the previous week but a 138.2% increase year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a 4.0% increase week-on-week [26] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities totaled 204.5 million square meters, reflecting a 3.5% decrease week-on-week but a 717.5% increase year-on-year [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the recovery potential of quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [2][31]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, with recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market. The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies, predicting that their profit recovery will occur sooner and be more resilient [2][31]. - The report recommends several quality real estate companies and commercial real estate firms, including Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, China Jinmao, and Poly Development, as well as commercial real estate firms like New City Holdings and China Resources Land [2][31]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.974 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities decreased by 3.1%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant drop of 39.4% [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in February increased by 327.2%, with first and second-tier cities up by 347.8% and third and fourth-tier cities up by 168.9% [4][10]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.198 million square meters, also down by 6.9% week-on-week. However, year-to-date transactions showed a 27.4% increase compared to the previous year [10][31]. Inventory and Supply - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 290,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.62 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.525 million square meters, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.52% [21][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights significant policy developments, including the acceleration of commercial real estate REITs applications, with over 10 applications submitted to exchanges as of February 6, 2026. Additionally, Shanghai is advancing the acquisition of second-hand homes for rental housing, with pilot areas identified [31][32]. - Various regions, including Tianjin, Sichuan, and Hainan, have adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30% [31][32].

Core Insights - The top three companies by stockholding ratio in the Hong Kong Stock Connect are China Telecom (71.39%), Gree Power Environmental (68.80%), and Haotian International Construction Investment (67.58%) [1] - Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group-W, and Pop Mart have seen the largest increases in stockholding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +36.02 billion, +22.89 billion, and +13.06 billion respectively [1] - Conversely, SMIC, Alibaba-W, and Zijin Mining International experienced the largest decreases in stockholding amounts, with reductions of -18.54 billion, -15.48 billion, and -11.14 billion respectively [2] Stockholding Ratios - The latest stockholding ratios for the top 20 companies in the Hong Kong Stock Connect are as follows: - China Telecom (00728): 99.09 million shares, 71.39% - Gree Power Environmental (01330): 2.78 million shares, 68.80% - Haotian International Construction Investment (01341): 75.00 million shares, 67.58% - Other notable companies include: - Kaisa New Energy (01108): 67.54% - Tianjin Chuangye Environmental Protection (01065): 66.84% [1] Recent Stock Increases - The top 10 companies with the largest stockholding increases in the last five trading days are: - Tencent Holdings (00700): +36.02 billion, +6.44 million shares - Xiaomi Group-W (01810): +22.89 billion, +6.55 million shares - Pop Mart (09992): +13.06 billion, +5.39 million shares - Other significant increases include: - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398): +11.23 billion - China Merchants Bank (03968): +11.16 billion [1] Recent Stock Decreases - The top 10 companies with the largest stockholding decreases in the last five trading days are: - SMIC (00981): -18.54 billion, -2.75 million shares - Alibaba-W (09988): -15.48 billion, -0.97 million shares - Zijin Mining International (02259): -11.14 billion, -0.54 million shares - Other notable decreases include: - Zijin Mining (02899): -10.96 billion - Jiangxi Copper (00358): -6.97 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - The luxury real estate market in Shanghai is experiencing a significant divergence, with high-end properties showing strong sales despite an overall market slowdown, indicating a trend towards the prioritization of secure, scarce, and cyclical assets [1][3][29] Market Dynamics - In early 2026, the Shanghai land market displayed cautious signals, with all five residential land plots sold at base prices, reflecting a decline in developer enthusiasm [1][27] - The total area of newly built commercial housing in Shanghai fell to 257,100 square meters, indicating a slowdown in supply during the traditional sales off-season [1][27] - Despite the overall market cooling, luxury properties like those developed by China Resources Land, including Shilin Runyuan, Luanqi Binjiang, and Waitan Ruifu, have shown remarkable sales performance, becoming resilient leaders in the off-season market [1][3][29] Prime Locations - The success of luxury properties is rooted in their irreplaceable core urban locations, which are considered the ultimate currency in real estate [1][29] - Shilin Runyuan is located in the Huangpu Old Town, a historical area with over 730 years of continuous urban history, making it a cultural "living fossil" [1][4][31] - Luanqi Binjiang is positioned in the Central Activity Zone (CAZ) along the Huangpu River, representing a prime residential site with significant future development potential [1][34] - Waitan Ruifu is strategically located in the "Golden Triangle" of Shanghai, which is designated as a global city core functional area in the Shanghai 2035 master plan [1][34] Product Differentiation - China Resources Land is not just building homes but is redefining living paradigms through innovative product offerings [1][29] - Shilin Runyuan has introduced the world's first non-heritage customized courtyard villa, allowing deep customization for homeowners [1][10][35] - Luanqi Binjiang incorporates advanced technology and aesthetics, utilizing AI algorithms for optimal design and ensuring panoramic views for residents [1][11][36] - Waitan Ruifu emphasizes contemporary avant-garde aesthetics while maintaining historical significance, featuring near-zero energy consumption buildings and advanced health-oriented amenities [1][41][42] Asset Security - In uncertain economic times, the long-term security and potential of assets are crucial for high-net-worth individuals, with China Resources Land providing a strong safety net as a state-owned enterprise [1][21][46] - The company promotes a "walkable neighborhood" lifestyle, integrating cultural and artistic elements into its developments to enhance community engagement [1][47] - The projects are designed to be "collectible assets," embodying both physical and spiritual coordinates of the city, and are positioned as financial core assets with high liquidity and strong resistance to market fluctuations [1][48] Business Model - China Resources Land's unique "3+1" integrated business model combines development, operational real estate, light asset management, and ecosystem elements, creating strong synergies [1][24][49]

报告指，虽然整体化妆品行业因线上获客成本持续上升、渠道转型红利减弱以及税负增加，盈利能力可 能面临挑战，但预期毛戈平能够持续跑赢大市，预计2025至2027年期间销售额与净利润复合年增长率分 别达到23%和22%。 高盛发布研报称，列出最新亚太区"确信买入"(精选版)(Directors' Cut)名单，新纳入毛戈平(01318)。移除 DISCO (6146.JP) 、华润置地(01109) 、Reliance Industries (RELIANCE.US)。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai has recently implemented a pilot policy for the acquisition of second-hand housing, with the Bank of China Shanghai Branch indicating it will provide full-cycle financial support for these acquisitions aimed at affordable rental housing projects. Morgan Stanley views this as a symbolic gesture, suggesting that its impact on housing sales in mainland China may be limited, and it does not address the funding source and scale bottlenecks of the repurchase plan [1]. Group 1 - The pilot policy for second-hand housing acquisition in Shanghai aims to support affordable rental housing projects [1] - Morgan Stanley believes the policy may not significantly reduce overall housing supply and could even lead to an increase in supply in the long term [1] - The requirement for homeowners to purchase new properties to qualify for the program may pose challenges, as the value of new homes in core urban areas is significantly higher than that of old homes, potentially leading to increased leverage for homeowners [1] Group 2 - Recent investment sentiment has driven the performance of the mainland property sector, but this outperformance may not be sustainable [1] - The recent rebound in second-hand market sales is viewed as temporary, according to Morgan Stanley [1] - The company maintains a positive outlook on quality developers with reliable self-rescue capabilities, such as China Resources Land and New World Development, as well as on Jianfa International, anticipating that its quality land reserves will drive profit recovery [1]