5 September 2025 | 4:52PM CST China Resources Land (1109.HK): Asia Leaders Conference 2025 — Key Takeaways: unlocking value from strategic transformation Bottom line: We hosted CRL's management at our GS Asia Leaders Conference on Sep 5. Key takeaways include: 1) the operating environment is still challenging for both DP/IP segments, and management plan to navigate this via disciplined investments in core locations within core cities, and utilizing its diversified mall positioning and brand incubation capab ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in Henan Province is experiencing a downturn in August, traditionally a slow season, but high-quality projects are still achieving good sales performance. The State Council has reiterated the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a potential mild recovery [1][4]. Sales Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the top 20 real estate companies in Henan achieved the following sales figures: - Jianye Real Estate: 53.42 billion CNY, 82.25 million m² sold - Zhonghai Real Estate: 28.37 billion CNY, 31.89 million m² sold - Zhengshang Group: 28.25 billion CNY, 19.62 million m² sold - China Jinmao: 27.61 billion CNY, 19.04 million m² sold - China Merchants Shekou: 25.70 billion CNY, 17.90 million m² sold [1][2]. Land Market Overview - In the first eight months of 2025, Henan Province launched 1,798 land plots with a planned construction area of 86.53 million m², of which 65.83 million m² were successfully sold. Specifically, 382 residential land plots were launched, with a total planned area of 20.64 million m², and 14.49 million m² sold [4]. - In August, 14 cities in Henan had residential land transactions, with Xuchang City leading with 14 plots and a total planned area of 1.28 million m². Zhoukou City followed with 8 plots and 0.22 million m², while Zhengzhou City ranked third with 3 plots and 0.22 million m² [4]. Price Trends - The average floor price for land transactions in Zhengzhou was the highest in the province at 3,098 CNY/m², followed by Jiyuan City at 2,025 CNY/m² and Luoyang City at 1,686 CNY/m² [4].

Core Insights - The performance of major state-owned real estate companies in the first half of 2025 shows significant differentiation, with China Resources Land emerging as the "profit king" while Poly Developments experiences a decline in revenue for the first time in five years [1][2][3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - China Resources Land achieved a revenue of 949.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.96%, and a net profit of 118.8 billion yuan, up 15.87% [2][5] - Poly Developments reported a revenue of 1168.57 billion yuan, down 16.08% year-on-year, and a net profit of 27.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 63.46% [2][3] - China Overseas Development's revenue was 832.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.27%, with a net profit of 85.99 billion yuan, down 16.63% [2][3] Business Segment Performance - China Resources Land's growth is attributed to its operational real estate business, which generated 121.1 billion yuan in revenue, a 5.5% increase [5][6] - In contrast, China Overseas and Poly Developments lag in this segment, with China Overseas earning 35.4 billion yuan and Poly Developments only 25.4 billion yuan from operational real estate [6][7] Land Acquisition Trends - All three companies increased their land acquisition efforts, focusing on first-tier cities, with Poly Developments leading with 509 billion yuan in land purchases [8][9] - China Overseas acquired land worth 403.7 billion yuan, while China Resources Land's acquisitions totaled 447.3 billion yuan [9] Market Outlook and Strategy - The companies are optimistic about the market's stabilization, with a focus on core first and second-tier cities to enhance their development capabilities [9][10] - The emphasis on operational real estate as a secondary revenue source is seen as a strategic move to balance traditional development income [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - Shenzhen has followed Beijing and Shanghai in relaxing purchase restrictions, with a more significant impact expected compared to the latter cities [11]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector has lagged behind the broader market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index down 1.5% this week, ranking 24th among 31 sectors [12]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 1.488 million square meters this week, reflecting a 17.9% decrease month-on-month and an 11.2% decrease year-on-year [23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven changes in the real estate market, suggesting that the current policy environment is more robust than in previous cycles [4]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Development - Shenzhen's new policy has narrowed the scope of purchase restrictions, with only specific areas remaining under strict limits [11]. - The report anticipates that the marginal effects of Shenzhen's new policy will be more pronounced than those in Beijing and Shanghai [11]. Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index has decreased by 1.5%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.67 percentage points [12]. - A total of 49 stocks in the real estate sector increased in value this week, while 62 stocks declined [12]. New Home and Second-Hand Home Transactions - New home sales in first-tier cities increased by 4.4% month-on-month, while second-tier cities saw a 23.3% decrease [23]. - Second-hand home transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 1.719 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 13.0% [34]. Credit Bonds - Eight credit bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, totaling 8.69 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of -1.24 billion yuan [42]. - The majority of bonds issued were rated AAA, indicating a strong credit quality among issuers [42]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks due to the expected policy-driven recovery and the early-cycle nature of the real estate market [4]. - Recommended companies include major players in both A-shares and H-shares, as well as local state-owned enterprises and property management firms [4].

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, the performance of three leading state-owned real estate companies, Poly Developments, China Overseas Development (CO), and China Resources Land, showed significant differentiation, with China Resources Land emerging as the strongest performer, achieving revenue growth and surpassing CO in net profit [1][4][5]. Revenue and Profit Performance - China Resources Land reported revenue of 949.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.96%, and a net profit of 118.8 billion yuan, up 15.87%, marking two consecutive years of growth [4][5]. - CO's revenue decreased by 4.27% to 832.19 billion yuan, with a net profit decline of 16.63% to 85.99 billion yuan [4][5]. - Poly Developments, despite leading in revenue at 1168.57 billion yuan, experienced a 16.08% decline in revenue and a 63.46% drop in net profit to 27.11 billion yuan, marking its first revenue decline in five years [5][10]. Growth in Operational Real Estate - China Resources Land's operational real estate revenue reached 121.1 billion yuan, growing by 5.5%, contributing significantly to its profit performance [7]. - CO's operational real estate revenue was 35.4 billion yuan, accounting for less than 5% of total revenue, while Poly Developments reported only 25.4 billion yuan in operational real estate revenue, indicating a clear gap compared to China Resources Land [8][10]. Land Acquisition and Market Confidence - All three companies increased their land acquisition efforts, focusing on first-tier cities, with Poly Developments leading with 509 billion yuan in land costs for 26 new projects [11][12]. - CO and China Resources Land also significantly increased their land acquisition, indicating strong confidence in the market's recovery [11][12]. - The strategy of focusing on core first and second-tier cities is seen as a way to leverage traditional advantages in development and ensure quicker capital turnover [12][13]. Strategic Recommendations - To balance core development and new growth points, companies are advised to adopt four core principles: match investment with sales, align production with sales capacity, adjust marketing strategies based on market demand, and respect market and policy dynamics [13].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in China is transitioning from a high-debt, high-leverage model to a new phase focused on "survival quality" and "new model exploration," indicating a shift from mere scale expansion to quality and service enhancement [1] Group 1: Market Consensus and Divergence - There is a consensus that the market has largely bottomed out, with limited room for further decline due to supportive policies like "guaranteeing delivery" and reduced down payments [2] - Divergence is evident among cities, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities showing resilient demand, while third and fourth-tier cities face high inventory and weak demand [2] - Financially stable state-owned and quality private enterprises are gaining market share, while heavily indebted firms struggle for survival, leading to increased industry consolidation [2] Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The execution of supportive policies faces delays, with local fiscal pressures hindering timely implementation of incentives, and buyer confidence remains low, complicating inventory reduction efforts [3] - Inventory clearance is a significant challenge, especially in third and fourth-tier cities where the clearance cycle exceeds 24 months, necessitating innovative approaches from local governments [3] Group 3: Strategic Transformation - Real estate companies are restructuring strategies around reducing debt, ensuring cash flow, improving efficiency, and enhancing product quality, transitioning from developers to operators and service providers [4] - Companies like Longfor and China Jinmao are focusing on financial stability and optimizing land reserves in core cities to mitigate market risks [4] - Enhancing operational efficiency through asset divestment, light asset operations, and digital optimization is a priority for firms aiming to improve overall effectiveness [4] Group 4: Product Quality as a Competitive Focus - The industry is entering a phase where product quality becomes the ultimate competitive focus, with various companies establishing robust product systems to enhance living quality and sustainability [5] - The collaboration between policy and market dynamics is expected to strengthen, leading to a healthier and more sustainable real estate model that prioritizes quality over rapid growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of community operations in the real estate sector, highlighting how companies are leveraging community engagement to enhance brand value and customer experience [3][4][27]. Group 1: Community Engagement Trends - Real estate companies are intensifying their community operations, moving beyond traditional community engagement to create commercial value through resource collaboration [3][4]. - A market survey indicates that "community service experience" has risen to 47% in the decision-making factors for homebuyers in 2024, up from 18% in 2019, reflecting a shift in value assessment from location to quality of life [4]. - Community engagement has become a standard feature for many real estate companies, evolving into a critical component of residential products [4]. Group 2: Innovative Community Activities - Companies like Greentown China are launching themed community events, such as the "Dolphin Plan," which includes a comprehensive ecosystem for youth swimming talent development [6][9]. - China Merchants Shekou initiated the "Deck Life Festival," integrating community activities across over 30 cities, emphasizing a holistic approach to community engagement [7][20]. - China Electric Power Real Estate introduced the "Little Wave Camping Season Community Carnival," focusing on sports and outdoor activities to enhance community interaction [7][12]. Group 3: Community as a Value Driver - The article discusses how community initiatives are evolving to create unique emotional value and differentiation in a highly competitive market [11][19]. - Companies like China Resources Land are innovating by integrating pet-friendly spaces within residential areas, fostering community engagement through pet-related activities [19][21]. - The article highlights the emergence of community leaders who are driving the co-creation of community experiences, moving towards a model of shared governance and collaboration [18][27]. Group 4: Commercial Value Creation - Real estate companies are exploring new commercial opportunities through community engagement, aiming for sustainable development by building trust and effective communication with residents [19][20]. - The article notes that successful community initiatives can lead to significant brand value and customer loyalty, as seen in the case of China Railway Construction's diverse community events [26][27]. - The integration of community activities with commercial partnerships is becoming a key strategy for enhancing the overall value proposition of real estate offerings [20][27].

Core Insights - The article highlights the dual nature of the real estate market in August, showcasing both rational performance reports and vibrant community engagement activities [1] - It emphasizes the importance of brand communication in the current market, where companies are not only focusing on survival but also on thriving through emotional connections with consumers [2] Group 1: Industry Performance - The real estate sector is experiencing a weak recovery with significant differentiation among companies, as evidenced by the contrasting strategies of leading firms like China Overseas, China Resources, and Poly [1] - Vanke's major organizational restructuring in August, including headquarters downsizing and executive changes, reflects the industry's need for adaptation to survive [2] - The delisting of China Evergrande from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange marks a significant event, symbolizing the challenges faced by high-debt companies in the current market [2] Group 2: Brand Communication - The brand communication power rankings for August show that Greentown China, China Resources, and Poly Development are leading, with a focus on performance stability, ESG initiatives, and customer satisfaction [2] - Companies are leveraging cultural IP and community activities to enhance emotional connections with users, thereby differentiating themselves in a challenging market [2] - The ongoing popularity of community activities among real estate firms indicates a trend towards broader coverage and increased promotional efforts [5]

Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 2070.4 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.6%. The year-on-year decline narrowed by 6.7 percentage points compared to July, maintaining a historically low monthly performance level. Cumulatively, the top 100 companies achieved a sales turnover of 20708.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%, with the decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points [2][12]. Group 1: Contract Sales - The top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 2070 billion yuan in August [3]. - The sales threshold for each tier of companies has further decreased compared to the same period last year, reaching the lowest level in recent years. The sales threshold for the top 10 companies decreased by 4.3% year-on-year to 56.06 billion yuan [5]. Group 2: Land Acquisition - The land acquisition amount for typical companies in August halved month-on-month, reaching a new low in nearly a year. The total investment amount for 30 monitored companies was approximately 25 billion yuan, a decrease of 57% month-on-month, but a year-on-year increase of 41% due to a low base last August [12][13]. - In August, 18 companies did not record any new land acquisitions, with only a few companies exceeding 8 billion yuan in land acquisition amounts [12][13]. Group 3: Financing - The total financing amount for 65 typical real estate companies in August was 37.139 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 23.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.2%. Cumulatively, from January to August, the financing amount was 278.518 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.3% [17]. - The financing cost for newly issued bonds from January to August 2025 was 3%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points compared to 2024. The average financing cost for the top 10 companies was the lowest at 2.62% [17][19]. Group 4: Organizational Dynamics - In August 2025, the real estate industry continued to undergo deep adjustments, with head companies becoming the core subjects of organizational changes and personnel shifts. The trend showed a reduction in management layers and optimization of talent allocation to enhance decision-making efficiency and control operational costs [22][27]. - Vanke completed a major organizational restructuring, dissolving its previous structure and establishing 16 regional companies to enhance operational efficiency and responsiveness in key cities [20][24].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is under pressure but is transitioning towards a new growth model, focusing on quality properties and diversified business operations to enhance resilience and navigate upcoming debt peaks [1][2][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, 286 listed real estate companies reported a total revenue of 1.85 trillion yuan and a net profit of 851.77 billion yuan, with 89 companies incurring losses totaling 191.2 billion yuan [1][2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a significant drop in project settlement scale and low gross margins, alongside asset impairment provisions to mitigate long-term inventory risks [2]. Strategic Focus on Quality Properties - Companies are adopting a "good house" strategy to drive future growth, with a focus on high-quality projects in core urban areas [2][3]. - For instance, Yuexiu Property's average selling price rose to 42,100 yuan per square meter, significantly above the industry average, demonstrating a successful sales strategy during the adjustment period [2]. Diversification into Operational Businesses - Many leading companies are developing operational businesses as a second growth curve, with examples like China Resources Land achieving 21.7% of total revenue from operational income [4][5]. - Dragon Lake Group reported record revenue from its operational services, indicating a successful dual-driven model of development and operations [5]. Debt Management and Financial Resilience - The industry is facing a debt peak in the second half of 2025, with a total debt maturity of 530.1 billion yuan, necessitating proactive debt management strategies [7][8]. - Companies like Greentown China have improved their cash-to-short-term debt ratio to 2.9 times, enhancing financial safety, while also reducing financing costs significantly [8][9]. Market Adaptation and Future Outlook - The financing environment is improving, particularly for quality companies, which are expected to stabilize through a combination of steady development, strong operations, and controlled debt [10].