Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market remains robust, with stabilization expected in core cities [1] - The industry rating is maintained at "Buy" [2] Policy Overview - The central bank has kept the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged, while local governments are optimizing housing fund policies, including subsidies for home purchases in cities like Shaoxing [6][17] - Local policies include increased housing fund withdrawal limits and adjustments to down payment ratios for commercial properties [19][21] Transaction Performance - New home transaction volume in 49 cities reached 350.85 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 20.2%, but a year-on-year decrease of 14.1% [22][23] - Second-hand home transactions have shown a week-on-week increase of 2.3%, marking five consecutive weeks of growth [22] Market Sentiment - The new home supply has decreased by 22% week-on-week, while the transaction volume has exceeded the new supply, indicating improved absorption rates [6] - The average price of second-hand homes is stable at 10,176 yuan per square meter, with expectations for positive price trends in the coming month [6] Land Market Performance - Land supply has increased, with transaction revenue from residential land in 300 cities reaching 21.5 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 2.0% [6] - The land transaction area was 7.2 million square meters, with a weekly transaction conversion rate of 64% [6] Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - Major companies in the sector, such as Vanke A and China Overseas Development, maintain a "Buy" rating with reasonable values set at 7.64 yuan and 16.02 yuan per share, respectively [7] - The report highlights the financial metrics of various companies, including EPS and PE ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities [7] C-REITs Market Overview - The C-REITs sector saw a slight decline in the comprehensive return index by 0.06%, with 39 out of 78 REITs experiencing gains [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - New home transaction area increased by 33.2% week-on-week, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 15.4%, a reduction of 14.5 percentage points compared to the previous week [5] - Second-hand home transaction area rose by 13.9% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 25.1%, narrowing by 7.0 percentage points from the previous week [5] - New home inventory area decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the absorption cycle increased month-on-month [5] - The land market saw a decline in both volume and price month-on-month, but an increase in volume year-on-year [5] - The total issuance of domestic bonds in the real estate sector decreased by 19.0% week-on-week but increased by 77.9% year-on-year [5] - The report suggests that the real estate sector may see opportunities for returns in 2026, with a focus on key cities and companies that have stable fundamentals [5] Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the 11th week, the new home transaction area in 40 cities was 211.9 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 33.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.4% [16] - Transaction areas in first, second, and third-fourth tier cities showed respective week-on-week growth rates of 56.5%, 20.4%, and 41.6% [16] 2. Second-hand Home Market Tracking - The second-hand home transaction area in 18 cities was 174.4 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 13.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 25.1% [5] 3. Inventory Situation - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 11,223 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.1% [44] - The absorption cycle for new home inventory was 23.1 months, increasing by 1.0 month month-on-month and 8.5 months year-on-year [44] 4. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area in 100 cities was 1,387.4 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 7.9% and a year-on-year increase of 216.7% [12] - The average land price was 1,670 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month decrease of 17.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.8% [12] 5. Bond Issuance - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 134.8 billion yuan, with a week-on-week decrease of 19.0% and a year-on-year increase of 77.9% [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - New and second-hand housing transactions have increased on a month-on-month basis, with new housing transactions up by 42% and second-hand housing transactions up by 25% in the latest week [5][19] - The report highlights ongoing challenges in the real estate market, including a decline in new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [5][19] Industry Data - The total number of listed companies in the real estate sector is 107, with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,216.63 billion and a circulating market capitalization of about 1,165.62 billion [2] - The real estate index fell by 0.5% in the latest week, ranking 14th among 31 primary industry sectors [8][10] Sales Performance - In the latest week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 monitored cities was 24.5 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 172 million square meters, reflecting a 42% increase month-on-month but a 13% decrease year-on-year [19][21] - For second-hand homes, the average daily transaction area in 11 monitored cities was 30.3 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 212 million square meters, showing a 25% increase month-on-month but an 18% decrease year-on-year [24][27] Policy Developments - Recent policy adjustments include changes to housing provident fund policies in Fuzhou and Chengdu, aimed at encouraging home purchases and increasing loan limits for homebuyers [13][15] Company Dynamics - Poly Developments acquired a residential land parcel in Hangzhou for 1.586 billion, with a floor price of 38,084 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 16.1% [16] - Greentown China successfully acquired residential land in Ningbo for 467 million, with a premium of 5.89% [16] - China Resources Land reported a total contract sales amount of approximately 10.05 billion for February 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.6% [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Insights - New and second-hand housing transactions have increased on a month-on-month basis, with new housing transactions up by 42% and second-hand housing transactions up by 25% in the latest week [5][19] - The report highlights ongoing challenges in the real estate market, including a decline in new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [5][19] Industry Data - The total number of listed companies in the real estate sector is 107, with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,216.63 billion and a circulating market capitalization of about 1,165.62 billion [2] - The real estate index fell by 0.5% in the latest week, ranking 14th among 31 primary industry sectors [8][10] Sales Performance - In the latest week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 monitored cities was 24.5 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 172 million square meters, reflecting a 42% increase month-on-month but a 13% decrease year-on-year [19][21] - For second-hand homes, the average daily transaction area in 11 monitored cities was 30.3 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 212 million square meters, showing a 25% increase month-on-month but an 18% decrease year-on-year [24][27] Policy Developments - Recent policy adjustments in Fuzhou and Chengdu aim to enhance housing fund policies, including encouraging "selling old for new" and increasing loan limits for housing funds [13][15] Company Dynamics - Poly Developments acquired a residential land plot in Hangzhou for 1.586 billion, with a floor price of 38,084 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 16.1% [16] - Greentown China successfully acquired residential land in Ningbo for 467 million, with a premium of 5.89% [16] - China Resources Land reported a total contract sales amount of approximately 10.05 billion for February 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.6% [17]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry has officially entered a new development stage of "stabilization and quality upgrade" in 2025, with significant improvements in delivery capabilities and buyer confidence [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The central government continues to deepen the real estate financing whitelist system, with over 7.5 million historically delayed housing units completed and the pilot of selling completed homes expanding [1] - The asset-liability structure of companies has substantially improved, with a stable delivery pattern characterized by quality upgrades and steady volume [1] - Leading real estate companies have stabilized their delivery scales, and the ability of distressed companies to fulfill commitments has significantly recovered [1] Group 2: Delivery Capability Assessment - The "2025 China Real Estate Enterprise Delivery Capability TOP 50" evaluates companies based on total delivery scale, timeliness, satisfaction, and completeness of delivery systems [13] - The top 50 companies have become the main force in ensuring delivery, with an increasing proportion of high-quality improvement projects [16] Group 3: Policy and Mechanisms - The central government has established a long-term policy mechanism for the real estate market, focusing on ensuring delivery, preventing risks, and stabilizing expectations [15] - Key measures include the normalization of the real estate financing whitelist, full-cycle supervision of pre-sale funds, and the expansion of the completed home sales pilot [15] Group 4: Delivery Quality and Experience - Delivery capability has evolved from merely "on-time delivery" to a comprehensive ability encompassing full-process systems, precision craftsmanship, and full-cycle services [19] - The delivery process now integrates design and operation, creating a complete loop that enhances the value from "building good homes" to "living well" [19] Group 5: Notable Delivery Projects - The top delivery projects of 2025 include high-end, light luxury, and quality works, showcasing the industry's focus on quality and customer experience [6][9][11] - Notable projects include "Poly Tianrui" in Guangzhou and "Beijing Yuefu," reflecting the industry's commitment to high standards [6][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The report highlights three major trends expected in 2026: 1) The adjustment in the real estate market is likely nearing its end, with current price adjustments being relatively sufficient compared to global averages [4] 2) There are structural opportunities for "good housing" as the market enters a phase of differentiation, with a focus on high-quality residential developments [4] 3) The recovery of the Hong Kong property market is anticipated to continue, driven by multiple favorable factors [4] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.8%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 2.5% [5] - The real estate sector (Shenwan) saw a decline of 0.5% [5] - Notable stock performances included: - Top gainers: Jingtou Development (+25.0%), Tibet City Investment (+13.4%), *ST Sunshine (+9.3%) [5] - Top losers: Caixin Development (-8.6%), *ST Rong Control (-8.2%), Tefa Service (-6.5%) [5] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of March 7-13, 2026, 42 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction of 1.89 million square meters, a 28.6% increase from the previous week [14] - Year-to-date, new housing transactions have decreased by 32.2% compared to the same period last year [19] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the same week, 21 key cities recorded a total second-hand housing transaction of 2.20 million square meters, a 19.2% increase from the previous week [30] - Year-to-date, second-hand housing transactions have decreased by 8.7% compared to the same period last year [34] Industry News - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the National Forestry and Grassland Administration issued a notice requiring the establishment of a mechanism linking new land use with the revitalization of existing land [45] - In Shanghai, the personal housing property tax threshold was adjusted to 92,536 yuan per square meter, marking the first decrease since 2018 [45] - Various cities are implementing policies to optimize housing conditions for talent and adjust housing fund policies [45] Company Announcements - Zhangjiang Hi-Tech reported a revenue of 4.19 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 111.2% [49] - China Resources Land achieved a sales amount of 10.05 billion yuan in February 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 25.6% [49] - New City Holdings issued bonds totaling 355 million USD with an interest rate of 11.8%, maturing in 2029 [49]

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) experienced a decline of -0.2% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices increased by 0.2% and decreased by -0.5%, respectively, resulting in excess returns of -0.4% and 0.3%[46] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 14th in performance[46] New Housing Market - In the week from March 7 to March 13, 2026, the new housing transaction area in 36 cities was 1.637 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 24.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%[8] - Cumulative new housing transactions from March 1 to March 13, 2026, totaled 2.646 million square meters, down 22.6% year-on-year[8] - Year-to-date cumulative transactions as of March 13, 2026, reached 11.962 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.0%[8] Second-Hand Housing Market - For the same week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 15 cities was 1.623 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 12.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%[15] - Cumulative second-hand housing transactions from March 1 to March 13, 2026, amounted to 2.857 million square meters, down 15.3% year-on-year[15] - Year-to-date cumulative transactions as of March 13, 2026, reached 13.544 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.7%[15] Inventory and Depletion - The cumulative inventory of new housing in 13 cities was 76.659 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%[21] - The new housing depletion cycle in these cities was 25.5 months, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3 months and a year-on-year increase of 9.3 months[21] Land Market - From March 9 to March 15, 2026, the land transaction area in 100 cities was 1.1901 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 55.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.9%[38] - The average land price was 941 yuan per square meter, down 16.4% month-on-month and 12.8% year-on-year[38] - Year-to-date cumulative land transaction area as of March 15, 2026, was 20.2622 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 5.5%[38] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include A-shares: Binhai Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, and Jianfa International Group[7] - Suggested light-asset operation companies include property management: Greentown Service; commercial management: China Resources Vientiane Life; leading intermediary platform: Beike-W[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [4][30]. Core Insights - The investment side remains weak, with a significant decline in new starts and completions, indicating a challenging environment for the real estate sector [4][20]. - Sales metrics show a contraction, but the decline is narrowing, suggesting a potential bottoming out phase for the market [21][30]. - Funding sources are under pressure, with a notable decrease in domestic loans and personal mortgage loans, although there are signs of gradual improvement expected due to policy support [33]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - In January-February 2026, real estate development investment totaled 961.2 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with new starts down 23.1% and completions down 27.9% [4][20]. - The report forecasts a continued weak investment environment, with predictions of a 7.7% decline in new starts, a 13.1% decline in completions, and a 9.1% decline in overall investment for 2026 [4][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for January-February 2026 was 0.9 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, while sales revenue fell by 20.2% to 818.6 billion yuan [21][30]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pricing pressure in the market [29][30]. - The report anticipates that sales will remain below demand levels in the short term, with a forecast of a 7.6% decline in sales area, a 9.4% decline in sales revenue, and a 2.0% decline in prices for 2026 [32][30]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in January-February 2026 were 1.3 trillion yuan, down 16.5% year-on-year, with domestic loans decreasing by 13.9% [33]. - The report highlights a tightening in funding conditions, particularly in personal mortgage loans, which saw a 41.9% year-on-year decline [33]. - Despite the current funding pressures, the report suggests that ongoing policy support may lead to gradual improvements in funding availability [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical tensions persist, and concerns about inflation have led to a decline in US Treasuries. The yields of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries have risen significantly, with the 2 - year yield rising more, reflecting concerns about limited Fed rate - cut space due to rising inflation expectations. The situation's uncertainty remains high, and the duration of the Holmuiz Strait's navigation restrictions is crucial [1][2]. - Affected by the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have declined for two consecutive weeks, with the Bloomberg Barclays Chinese - funded US dollar bond total return index falling 0.5% last week [1][3]. - In the on - shore market, the yields of 3 - year and 10 - year government bonds have risen. Factors such as improved inflation expectations, good industrial production and export performance, improved fixed investment data, and reduced expectations of future monetary policy easing have jointly promoted the rise in government bond yields. However, overall, monetary policy will remain supportive, and there is no basis for a continuous rise in interest - rate bond yields [1][4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Off - shore Market - There were 3 new issuances of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds exceeding $100 million last week, totaling $1.45 billion, mainly financial bonds; about 17.5 billion RMB of off - shore RMB bonds were newly issued, also mainly financial bonds [2]. - The yields of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries rose 14 and 16 basis points respectively to 4.28% and 3.72% last week, mainly due to market concerns about potential inflation problems caused by the continuous high oil price [1][2]. - Key - term US Treasuries have fully reversed all their gains this year. The yields of 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasuries have risen 11 and 24 basis points respectively compared to the end of 2025 [1][2]. - Affected by the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, Chinese - funded US dollar bonds have declined for two consecutive weeks. The Bloomberg Barclays Chinese - funded US dollar bond total return index fell 0.5% last week, and the spread narrowed by 2 basis points. Among them, the high - rating index fell 0.5%, and the spread narrowed by 3 basis points; the high - yield index fell 0.4%, and the spread widened by 3 basis points [1][3]. On - shore Market - The People's Bank of China net - withdrew 10.11 billion RMB of short - term liquidity through reverse repurchase operations last week, and inter - bank funding rates rebounded. The weighted average interest rates of 7 - day deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase and 7 - day inter - bank pledged repurchase rose 5 and 1 basis points respectively to 1.46% and 1.50% [4]. - The yields of 3 - year and 10 - year government bonds rose 1 and 3 basis points respectively to 1.37% and 1.81% last week [4]. - February's inflation data showed improved price pressure, and the continuous geopolitical tensions pushed up oil prices, improving market expectations of subsequent inflation. The macro data from January to February showed good industrial production and export performance, improved fixed investment data, and although retail data was still weak, it was better than market expectations. Coupled with the guidance of the People's Bank of China, market expectations of future monetary policy easing have weakened, jointly promoting the rise in government bond yields. However, overall, monetary policy will remain supportive, and there is no basis for a continuous rise in interest - rate bond yields [4]. Recent Newly Issued Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - Beijing Construction Engineering (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. issued bonds with a coupon rate of 4.10%, an issue amount of $300 million, and a maturity date of March 19, 2029 [5]. Appendix: List of Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - The appendix provides a detailed list of various Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, including information such as the issuer, guarantor, coupon rate, issue amount, maturity date, and ratings from Moody's, S&P, and Fitch [17][19][21].

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Land reported its unaudited operational data for February 2026, indicating a significant decline in contract sales while showing growth in recurring income [1] Group 1: Contract Sales Performance - In February, the total contract sales amounted to approximately RMB 100.5 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 25.6% [1] - The total contracted sales area for February was about 287,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 50.9% [1] - For the cumulative period of January to February, the total contract sales reached approximately RMB 217.0 billion, down 13.5% year-on-year [1] - The cumulative contracted sales area for the same period was around 655,000 square meters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 38.9% [1] Group 2: Recurring Income Performance - In February, the group's recurring income was approximately RMB 45.4 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [1] - The rental income from operational real estate business for February was about RMB 31.9 billion, which is a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [1] - For the cumulative recurring income from January to February, the total was approximately RMB 90.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The rental income from operational real estate business for the cumulative period was around RMB 63.0 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [1]