Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6]. Core Insights - AIA Group achieved a strong performance in 2024 with a New Business Value (NBV) of USD 4.712 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 18%. The annualized new premiums reached USD 8.606 billion, up 14% year-on-year, with an NBV margin improvement of 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [1]. - The growth in NBV was driven by significant contributions from both the agency force and partner distribution channels, which recorded NBV of USD 3.707 billion and USD 1.301 billion, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 16% and 28% [1]. - All regions reported double-digit growth in new business value, with notable increases in Mainland China and Hong Kong, achieving growth rates of 20% and 23%, respectively [1][2]. Summary by Sections Group Performance - AIA Group's 2024 NBV reached USD 4.712 billion, up 18% year-on-year, with annualized new premiums of USD 8.606 billion, reflecting a 14% increase. The NBV margin improved to 54.5% [1]. Mainland China - In Mainland China, the 2024 NBV recorded a 20% year-on-year increase to USD 1.217 billion, with new subsidiaries contributing 27% to the growth. The NBV margin increased by 4.9 percentage points to 56.1% [2]. Hong Kong - Hong Kong's 2024 NBV rose by 23% to USD 1.764 billion, the highest proportion within the group. The demand for flagship savings products remained strong, and the company expects continued robust growth in 2025 [3]. ASEAN and Other Markets - AIA successfully capitalized on wealth growth opportunities in Singapore, achieving a 15% year-on-year increase in NBV to USD 0.454 billion. Thailand and Malaysia also reported NBV growth of 15% and 10%, respectively [4]. OPAT and Share Buyback - The 2024 Operating Profit After Tax (OPAT) was USD 6.605 billion, up 7% year-on-year, with a per-share increase of 12%. A new share buyback plan of USD 1.6 billion has been approved, expected to yield approximately 6% total return for shareholders [4][5]. Investment Outlook - The outlook for 2025 remains positive, with expectations of continued high growth driven by market expansion in Mainland China and strong demand for savings products in Hong Kong. The projected net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards to USD 7.55 billion, USD 7.94 billion, and USD 8.39 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.4%, 5.2%, and 5.6%, respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Insights - In 2024, AIA Group reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of $6.836 billion, an increase of 84% year-on-year at constant exchange rates. The after-tax operating profit was $6.605 billion, and the new business value (NBV) reached $4.712 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7% and 18% respectively. The embedded value (EV) stood at $69.035 billion, up 4% from the beginning of the year. The final dividend was HK$1.31 per share, a 10% increase year-on-year, with the total annual dividend rising by 9%, aligning with expectations [1][4][6]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - AIA Group's total investment scale reached $288.621 billion by the end of 2024, marking a 7.5% increase from the beginning of the year. The net and total investment yield for non-participating and surplus assets remained stable at 4.3% and 4.8% respectively, with net investment performance increasing by 133.4% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced financial expenses related to insurance contracts [4][6]. Liability Side - The NBV growth rate for 2024 was 18%, a decrease of 7 percentage points compared to the first half of 2024, but still indicating robust growth. The main driver was the new annualized premium income, which reached $8.606 billion, up 14% year-on-year. The new business profitability also improved, with the value rate increasing by 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [2][3]. Regional Performance - In 2024, the NBV growth rates for various regions were as follows: Hong Kong +23%, Mainland China +20%, Thailand +15%, Singapore +15%, Malaysia +10%, and other regions +18%. Hong Kong led with an NBV of $1.764 billion, benefiting from strong growth in local and visitor business [3]. Shareholder Returns - AIA Group announced a new share buyback program of $1.6 billion, slightly increasing its shareholder return strategy. The expected completion of this buyback is within 2025, and the total shareholder return, including dividends and buybacks, is estimated to yield a dividend yield of approximately 6% based on the company's market capitalization at the end of the previous year [5][6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Given the strong growth momentum in diverse business markets and the expected opening of new branches, the profit forecast for AIA Group has been revised upward. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to grow by 2.2%, 25.0%, and 10.4% respectively. The target price is set at HK$83.3, corresponding to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) of 1.5 times for 2025, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6][13].

证券研究报告 友邦保险 (1299 HK) 版 服 酒 2024: NBV 稳健增长,回购小幅延续 | 华泰研究 | | --- | | 2025 年 3 月 14 日 中国香港 | 友邦保险 2024年EPS USD0.62，高于我们的预测 USD0.56, 主要因投资 收益超预期:24年友邦新业务价值同比提升 18%(不变汇率),表现稳定; 每股营运利润同比提升 12%（不变汇率），表现较好。维持"买入"。 假设调整影响大陆市场 NBV 增速 2024 年友邦新业务价值(NBV)同比提升 18%(不变汇率,下同),主要 由大中华市场的高速增长带动。2024年中国香港市场 NBV 同比增长 23%， 其中内地访客和本地居民分别+22%/24%,在高基数下展现出增长韧性。中 国大陆市场 NBV 同比增长 20%,公司下调了大陆市场长期利率假设,在不 调整基数的情况下 4Q24 大陆市场 NBV 下滑 9%。考虑到友邦经营地域持 续扩张,我们看好友邦中国未来的增长潜力。此外,东南亚市场也保持稳健 增长,2024 年友邦泰国/新加坡/马来西亚 NBV 分别同比增长 15%/15%/10%。我们预计 2025年 N ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (01299.HK) [8] Core Insights - AIA Group reported a strong performance with a 18% year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) and announced a new share buyback plan of $1.6 billion [8] - The company achieved a net profit of $6.84 billion, reflecting an 84% year-on-year growth, with a significant increase of 133% in the second half of the year [8] - The embedded value reached $69 billion, up 4% year-on-year, with an operating return on embedded value increasing by 2.0 percentage points to 14.9% [8] - The expected final dividend per share is 130.98 Hong Kong cents, a 10% increase compared to the previous year [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total insurance revenue for 2023 was $17.514 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.32% [8] - After-tax operating profit for 2023 was $6.213 billion, showing a decline of 3.24% year-on-year [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was $0.35, with projections for 2024 at $0.64 [8] New Business Value (NBV) - The annualized new premium (ANP) for 2023 was $8.61 billion, up 14% year-on-year [8] - The total NBV for the year was $4.71 billion, reflecting an 18% increase [8] - The NBV margin improved by 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [8] Regional Performance - NBV in Hong Kong increased by 23% to $1.76 billion, accounting for 34.8% of the total [8] - NBV in mainland China reached $1.22 billion, up 20% year-on-year [8] - The "New Malaysia Thailand" region also showed positive growth in NBV, with increases of 15%, 10%, and 15% respectively [8] Investment Strategy - The company has shifted its investment strategy, reducing fixed income allocation to 71.1% while increasing equity allocation to 22.3% [8] - The net investment yield for the year was 4.0%, with a total investment return of 4.9% [8] Capital Management - AIA Group has completed its previous $12 billion share buyback program and plans to implement a new $1.6 billion buyback plan within 2025 [8] - The current stock price corresponds to 1.12 times the estimated price-to-embedded value (PEV) for 2025, indicating a low valuation with a high margin of safety [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (01299.HK) [8] Core Insights - AIA Group reported a strong performance with a 18% year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) and announced a new share buyback plan of $1.6 billion [8] - The company achieved a net profit of $6.84 billion, reflecting an 84% year-on-year growth, with a significant increase of 133% in the second half of the year [8] - The embedded value reached $69 billion, up 4% year-on-year, with an operating return on embedded value increasing by 2.0 percentage points to 14.9% [8] - The expected final dividend per share is 130.98 Hong Kong cents, a 10% increase compared to the previous year [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total insurance revenue for 2023 was $17.514 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.32% [8] - After-tax operating profit for 2023 was $6.213 billion, showing a decline of 3.24% year-on-year [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was $0.35, with projections for 2024 at $0.64 [8] New Business Value (NBV) - The annualized new premium (ANP) for 2023 was $8.61 billion, reflecting a 14% increase year-on-year [8] - The total NBV for the year was $4.71 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 18% [8] - The NBV margin improved by 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [8] Regional Performance - NBV in Hong Kong increased by 23% to $1.76 billion, accounting for 34.8% of the total [8] - NBV in mainland China reached $1.22 billion, up 20% year-on-year [8] - The "New Malaysia Thailand" region also showed positive growth in NBV, with increases of 15%, 10%, and 15% respectively [8] Investment Strategy - The company has shifted its investment strategy, reducing fixed income allocation and increasing equity exposure [8] - The net investment yield for the year was 4.0%, with a total investment return of 4.9% [8] Capital Management - AIA Group has completed its previous $12 billion share buyback program and plans to implement a new $1.6 billion buyback plan within 2025 [8] Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to 1.12 times the estimated 2025 PEV, indicating a low valuation with a high margin of safety [8] - The report estimates a fair value range for the company between HKD 75.53 and HKD 82.65, based on absolute valuation methods and comparable company valuations [8]

Core Insights - AIA Group reported a strong performance for the fiscal year 2024, with new business value increasing by 18% to $4.712 billion and annualized new premiums rising by 14% to $860.6 million [1][2] - The company achieved a new business value profit margin of 54.5%, up by 1.9 percentage points from the previous year [1][2] - AIA's operating profit after tax was $6.605 billion, reflecting a 7% increase year-on-year, with earnings per share rising by 12% [1][2] Financial Performance - New business value reached $4.712 billion, up from $4.034 billion, marking an 18% increase [2] - Annualized new premiums increased to $860.6 million from $765 million, a 14% rise [2] - Operating profit after tax rose to $6.605 billion from $6.213 billion, a 7% increase [2] Regional Performance - AIA's Hong Kong business contributed significantly to new business performance, with new business value growing by 23% to $1.764 billion [3][4] - The Chinese mainland business saw a 20% increase in new business value, reaching $1.217 billion [3][4] - Thailand and Singapore also showed strong growth, with new business values increasing by 15% and 15% respectively [4] Strategic Initiatives - AIA is actively expanding its operations in mainland China, with new branches approved in Anhui, Shandong, Chongqing, and Zhejiang [4] - The company holds a 24.99% stake in China Post Life Insurance, enhancing its growth opportunities in mainland China [5] - AIA's CEO highlighted the diversified growth across all reporting segments, with a focus on profitability and cash flow [6] Shareholder Returns - AIA announced a new share buyback program of $1.6 billion, expected to be completed by 2025 [1] - The final dividend per share increased by 10% to 130.98 Hong Kong cents [1][2] - The company's basic earnings per share rose by 10%, reflecting strong financial health [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 81.10 based on a reasonable valuation of 1.5X PEV [3]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience in new business value (NBV) and is expected to return to double-digit growth in 2023-2024, with a projected NBV margin stabilization [1][2]. - The operational profit has shown steady growth, with a 3.5% year-on-year increase in tax-adjusted operational profit for the first half of 2024 [1]. - The company's embedded value (EV) growth is credible and reflects timely adjustments to investment return assumptions and discount rates [1][29]. - The capital management policy has been optimized, enhancing predictability and stability in shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio expected to be over 35% [1][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in 18 markets across the Asia-Pacific region, with a strong historical presence and a focus on sustainable growth [16]. - It has a diversified ownership structure, with major shareholders being institutional investors, which supports management's decision-making flexibility [19][20]. Financial Performance - The company has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.6% in operational profit from 2010 to 2022, despite recent challenges [22]. - The insurance revenue is projected to grow from USD 163.19 billion in 2022 to USD 208.10 billion by 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [6]. Core Advantages - The company benefits from superior corporate governance, a strong agent network, and a focus on high-potential markets in the Asia-Pacific region [2][41]. - It has a lower cost of liabilities and a more favorable interest margin dependency compared to peers, which enhances its competitive position [2]. Profitability Forecast - The NBV growth rates are expected to be 17%, 9%, and 10% for 2024-2026, with operational profit growth rates of 9% for both 2024 and 2025 [3]. - The embedded value (EV) growth is projected at 3%, 5%, and 7% for the same period, indicating a stable outlook [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company has committed to returning 75% of its annual free surplus to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with expected shareholder return rates of 7.4%, 6.5%, and 5.8% for 2024-2026 [34].

Financial Performance Highlights - The company achieved a record value of new business (VOMB) growth of 18%, reaching $4,700,000,000, driven by strong performance across all segments [2][28] - Embedded value (EV) equity increased by 9% per share to $71,600,000,000 after returning $6,500,000,000 to shareholders [3][52] - Operating profit after tax rose by 12% per share, with underlying free surplus generation (UFSG) growing by 10% per share [3][29] - The final dividend per share was increased by 10%, and a new share buyback of $1,600,000,000 was announced [3][29] Business Line Performance - The Premier Agency contributed 74% of the VOMB, with a growth of 16% driven by increased activity and productivity [4][5] - Partnerships saw a significant increase in VOMB, up 28% to $1,300,000,000, with bank assurance growing by 39% [6][8] - AIA Hong Kong delivered a record VOMB of $1,800,000,000, up 23%, supported by strong sales from both domestic and mainland Chinese visitor segments [8][10] Market Performance - AIA China achieved 20% growth in VOMB to over $1,200,000,000, demonstrating resilience in a challenging environment [10][12] - ASEAN markets collectively generated over $1,700,000,000 in VOMB, reflecting a 15% increase, with strong performances from Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia [17][18] - The joint venture in India, Tata AIA Life, reported over 20% growth in VOMB, maintaining its position as a market leader [19][20] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company focuses on a premier agency strategy to enhance customer satisfaction and agent performance, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of growth [5][6] - AIA's technology investments, particularly in AI and advanced analytics, are aimed at improving operational efficiency and customer engagement [22][24] - The company is well-positioned to capture growth opportunities in Asia's dynamic insurance market, driven by rising populations and increasing wealth [20][21] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth potential in China, highlighting the robust demand for products and services [60][66] - The company is optimistic about sustaining growth momentum, particularly in the agency and bank assurance channels [63][66] - The strategic focus on technology and digital capabilities is expected to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience [22][24] Other Important Information - The company has established branches in five additional regions in China, significantly expanding its addressable market [15][17] - AIA's investment in technology has resulted in annual benefits of approximately $180,000,000 in claims and operational efficiencies [24][74] - The company has returned over $18,000,000,000 to shareholders since 2022 through dividends and share buybacks [77][50] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on China’s growth sustainability and licensing - Management indicated that the growth rate in China is expected to be significantly higher than the reported 20%, with a strong recruitment momentum in the agency channel [57][62] - The company anticipates maintaining a pace of one to two new provincial licenses per year moving forward [68] Question: Technology investment and ROI - The company has invested close to $1,000,000,000 in technology over the past few years, with plans to focus on embedding generative AI across all business aspects [69][75] - Significant operational efficiencies have been realized, with a reduction in unit costs by 43% over four years [74] Question: Shareholder capital ratio and free surplus - The decrease in shareholder capital ratio was primarily due to the buyback program, with required capital increasing due to new business growth [78][79] - Management emphasized the attractiveness of investing in new business, which continues to yield returns over 20% [79]

Financial Performance - New business value increased by 18% to $4.712 billion, with all reporting segments achieving double-digit growth[4] - Annualized new premiums rose by 14% to $8.606 billion, indicating strong market demand[4] - After-tax operating profit amounted to $6.605 billion, reflecting a 12% increase per share[4] - The generated basic free surplus was $6.327 billion, with a 10% increase per share[4] - Operating profit based on embedded value reached $10,025 million, a 14% increase from $8,890 million in 2023[10] - The operating return on embedded value improved to 14.9%, up from 12.9% in the prior year, representing a 2.0 percentage point increase[10] - The total weighted premium income grew to $41,398 million, marking a 10% increase from $37,939 million in 2023[10] - Net operating profit after tax reached a new high of $6.605 billion, with earnings per share increasing by 12%[40] - The basic contract service margin grew by 9.1%, contributing to the increase in after-tax operating profit and indicating strong recurring earnings from quality new business[65] Shareholder Returns - A new round of share buyback worth $1.6 billion was announced, alongside a 10% increase in the final dividend to HKD 1.3098 per share[5] - The total capital returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks is projected to be $6.5 billion in 2024[5] - The company returned $6.478 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks during the year[34] - The board proposed a final dividend increase of 10% to HKD 1.3098 per share, resulting in a total annual dividend of HKD 1.7548 per share, up 9%[35] - The company aims to return 75% of annual generated free surplus through dividends and share buybacks, with a new share buyback plan of $1.6 billion approved[35] - The company has returned $18.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks from 2022 to 2024[69] Capital Management - After returning capital to shareholders, the embedded value equity reached $71.6 billion, representing a 9% increase per share[4] - The shareholder capital ratio as of December 31, 2024, stands at 236%[4] - AIA Group's capital management policy was optimized in April 2024, increasing the total share buyback program to $12 billion, with 1.409 billion shares repurchased, representing 11.7% of the total shares issued at the time of the announcement[26] - The eligible group capital resources increased from $73.156 billion to $77.650 billion, mainly due to effective business generation and issuance of eligible subordinated securities[169] - The local capital adequacy ratio under the insurance group regulatory framework is 257% as of December 31, 2024, down from 275% in 2023[169] Business Growth - New business value in mainland China increased by 20% to $1,217 million, with annualized new premiums rising to $2,168 million[12] - New business value in Hong Kong grew by 23% to $1.764 billion, driven by an increase in active agents and productivity[42] - New business value in Thailand reached a record high of $816 million, up 15%, supported by strong growth in the agency distribution channel[43] - New business value in Singapore grew by 15% to $454 million, with all distribution channels performing strongly[44] - The overall new business value in other markets increased by 18% to $467 million, with growth recorded across all markets[45] Digital Transformation - The digital submission rate for new business reached 99%, with 82% of all policies completed through automated underwriting[47] - AIA Co. is leveraging advanced digital technology to support its unique agency force, enabling them to provide comprehensive advice on a wide range of protection and wealth propositions[200] Sustainability and Social Impact - The company is committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, integrating climate factors into its strategy and operations[53] - The company has positively impacted 496 million people through various initiatives aimed at promoting health and financial inclusion, aligning with its goal to help one billion people by 2030[27] Market Position and Strategy - AIA Group achieved a new business value growth of 18% to a record high of $4.712 billion in 2024, reflecting strong demand for its quality products and services across all reporting markets and distribution channels[23] - The company set a compound annual growth rate target of 9% to 11% for after-tax operating profit per share from 2023 to 2026, demonstrating confidence in its recovery post-pandemic[21] - The company is focused on enhancing its "Best Agency" strategy, which emphasizes quality recruitment, extensive training, and systematic career development[200] Financial Health - The total assets increased by 7% to $305.454 billion, driven by a 9% rise in financial investments to $272.151 billion[127] - The company reported a significant increase in the fair value of assets, with a 1,013% rise in fair value reserves to $5.744 billion[127] - The company’s total liabilities increased by 8% to $264.641 billion, with insurance and reinsurance contract liabilities rising by 9% to $221.667 billion[127]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for AIA Group Ltd. with a target price of HK$94.0, implying a potential upside of 62.1% from the current price of HK$58.0 [1][7]. Core Insights - AIA's share price fell 17.3% in FY24, underperforming key benchmarks despite resilient Value of New Business (VNB) growth and a solid financial position [1]. - The report anticipates a 20% increase in full-year VNB on a Constant Exchange Rate (CER) basis, with Group Operating Profit After Tax (OPAT) expected to grow 7% YoY in FY24 [1][7]. - Total shareholder return is projected to rise to approximately 8% in FY24, driven by a 3% dividend yield and around 5% return from buybacks [1][7]. Financial Performance - AIA's VNB is expected to reach US$4.77 billion in FY24, reflecting a 20% increase on a CER basis, with a slowdown in growth anticipated in the second half of the year [7]. - Group OPAT is projected to increase to US$6.639 billion in FY24, with a corresponding Operating EPS of US$0.59 [8]. - The report highlights a significant buyback program completion of US$12 billion, with expectations for a new buyback announcement in mid-March 2025 [1][7]. Market Position - AIA's share price performance has lagged behind major indices, with the stock trading at 1.0x FY25E Price to Embedded Value (P/EV), near historical lows [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sustained long-term value growth to enhance investor confidence and facilitate further buybacks [7]. Shareholder Returns - The report indicates that AIA's management remains focused on shareholder returns, with an estimated US$3.5 billion allocated for buybacks in FY24 [7]. - The underlying free surplus generation is projected to be US$6.7 billion, up 11% YoY, which could strengthen the Group's capital position for additional shareholder paybacks [7].