Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has included Gu Ming (01364) in its Asia-Pacific "Conviction Buy" list, expecting the company's adjusted net profit to grow over 20% year-on-year in the next two years, supported by increasing penetration of ready-to-drink beverages and market share expansion, leading to outperformance in the consumer sector with a target price of HKD 32 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Analysts predict that Gu Ming's adjusted net profit will exceed 20% growth year-on-year over the next two years [1] - The total gross merchandise value (GMV) per store has increased by over 20% year-to-date, significantly outperforming other mid-tier ready-to-drink beverage brands [1] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The company's growth is attributed not only to takeaway subsidies but also to successful new product launches and category expansions, such as coffee, along with strong execution capabilities [1] - Concerns regarding same-store sales growth after the normalization of takeaway subsidies have led to a 23% decline in stock price from its June peak [1] - The company is expected to maintain growth through steady store expansion and increased product categories and consumption scenarios [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Meishan Bonded Port Area Meixing Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. has reduced its stake in Gu Ming (01364) by selling 23,781,859 shares at an average price of HKD 22.54 per share, totaling approximately HKD 536 million [1] Group 1 - The reduction in shareholding results in a new total of approximately 150 million shares held, representing a 6.31% ownership stake [1] - The transaction involved an associated party, Zhu Yonghua [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Meishan Bonded Port Area Meixing Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. has reduced its stake in Gu Ming (01364) by approximately 23.78 million shares at an average price of HKD 22.54 per share, totaling around HKD 536 million [1] Summary by Category - **Share Reduction Details** - The company sold 23,781,859 shares of Gu Ming at an average price of HKD 22.54 per share [1] - The total amount from the sale is approximately HKD 536 million [1] - **Post-Transaction Holdings** - After the reduction, the latest number of shares held is approximately 150 million [1] - The new holding percentage is 6.31% [1] - **Related Party Involvement** - The transaction involves a related party: Zhu Yonghua [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry rating but highlights the performance of various sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry [7] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is currently under pressure, with the SW food and beverage index declining by 1.02%, ranking 30th among 31 sub-industries [12] - The white liquor sector is in a "supply clearing" phase, with expectations of increased pressure in the upcoming quarterly reports, indicating a potential acceleration in industry clearing [16] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the new leadership strategies at Kweichow Moutai following a significant personnel change [16] - The beverage sector shows promising growth, particularly with Eastroc Beverage's strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a revenue of 16.844 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.13% [17] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Performance - The SW food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.02%, with notable drops in the white liquor, beer, and snack sub-sectors [12] - The top-performing sub-sectors included pre-processed foods, other alcoholic beverages, and meat products, with increases of 1.10%, 0.35%, and 0.33% respectively [12] 2. White Liquor Sector - The SW white liquor index fell by 1.12%, indicating a bottom adjustment phase [16] - The current price for Feitian Moutai is 1,720 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous week, while the price for Pu'er Moutai is 8,155 yuan, down 5 yuan [16] - Recommended companies in this sector include Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are expected to perform relatively well during the adjustment period [16] 3. Beverage Sector - Eastroc Beverage reported a revenue of 16.844 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.13% [17] - The company also saw a net profit of 3.761 billion yuan, up 38.91% year-on-year [17] - Other companies like Jinzai Foods and Qiaqia Foods are facing challenges, with Jinzai reporting a revenue of 1.81 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2.1% year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 19.5% [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guming, is experiencing significant growth in the Chinese ready-to-drink tea market, with a market share of approximately 9.1%, making it the second-largest player after Mixue Ice City and the leading brand in the 10-20 yuan price segment [1] Group 1: Market Position and Performance - As of the end of H1 2025, Guming operates 11,179 stores across over 200 cities, with 81% of its stores located in second-tier and lower cities [1] - The company is projected to achieve revenue of 8.791 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 14.5% increase, with a corresponding GMV of 22.4 billion yuan, up 16.57% [1] - Guming's revenue is primarily derived from the sale of raw materials and equipment to franchise stores, accounting for 80% of total revenue [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China is characterized by a rising per capita consumption potential, with low-tier markets being the main source of growth [1] - In the milk tea segment, the chain rate is expected to reach 49% in 2024, with supply chain capabilities becoming a critical competitive factor due to product homogeneity and low replication barriers [1] - The coffee segment faces less intense competition compared to milk tea, with leading brands leveraging scale advantages to combat rising coffee bean costs and price wars [1] Group 3: Store Performance and Expansion Strategy - Guming's single-store model shows resilience, with an average monthly GMV of 197,000 yuan, despite a 4% decline, and approximately 40% of sales coming from third-party platforms [2] - The company maintains a focus on store quality and franchisee health, with a strategy of expanding in existing stronghold provinces while also entering neighboring regions [2] - The new franchise policy for 2025 emphasizes the importance of franchisee management and lowers the entry threshold to 230,000 yuan to encourage expansion [2] Group 4: Logistics and Supply Chain - Guming leads the industry in cold chain and warehousing logistics, ensuring fresher products compared to competitors, with most fresh ingredients transported to stores within 1-3 days [3] - The company owns 362 transportation vehicles, with 75% of its stores located within a 150-kilometer radius of its warehouses, allowing for efficient cold chain service [3] Group 5: Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Guming are set at 11.98 billion yuan, 15.18 billion yuan, and 18.34 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 36%, 27%, and 21% respectively [3] - The projected net profit for the parent company is 2.6 billion yuan for 2025, remaining stable at 2.6 billion yuan in 2026, and increasing to 3.2 billion yuan in 2027 [3] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 2.12 billion yuan, 2.71 billion yuan, and 3.29 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 37%, 28%, and 21% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [5] Core Insights - The company, Guming, is a leading player in the ready-to-drink beverage market, with a strong cold chain logistics system serving as its competitive moat [4][14] - Guming has a significant market share in the Chinese ready-to-drink tea market, with approximately 9.1%, ranking second after Mixue Ice City, and holds the largest market share in the 10-20 RMB price range [4][14] - The company has shown robust revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase from 11.79 billion RMB in 2024 to 18.34 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% [5][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guming was founded in 2010 in Zhejiang and has expanded to over 11,179 stores across more than 200 cities, with 81% of its stores located in second-tier and lower cities [4][14] - The company primarily generates revenue from selling raw materials and equipment to franchisees, accounting for 80% of its income [17] Financial Analysis - In 2024, Guming achieved a revenue of 8.791 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.5%, with a GMV of 22.4 billion RMB, up 16.57% [4][27] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is projected to be 1.542 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 17.5% [30] - The company has a strong cash flow position, with operating cash flow of 1.34 billion RMB and cash equivalents of 3.26 billion RMB as of the first half of 2025 [35] Industry Insights - The ready-to-drink beverage market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to reach 1.1634 trillion RMB by 2028 [42] - The competition in the tea beverage sector is intense, particularly in the mid-range price segment, while the coffee market is experiencing a more moderate competitive landscape [48] - The report highlights the potential for growth in lower-tier cities, where the per capita consumption of ready-to-drink beverages is still low compared to higher-tier cities [43][44] Store Performance and Expansion Strategy - Guming's single-store model shows resilience, with an average monthly GMV of 197,000 RMB in 2024, despite a slight decline in cup sales [69] - The company is focusing on maintaining the health of its franchisees and expanding its presence in neighboring provinces, with a new franchise policy that lowers the entry barrier to 230,000 RMB [4][5][68]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Gu Ming, is the largest mid-priced tea beverage brand in China, focusing on fresh and high-quality products to attract and retain consumers, supported by a robust supply chain and extensive store network [1][2][3] Company Overview - Gu Ming has established itself as a leading brand in the mid-priced tea beverage sector, with a slogan that emphasizes daily consumption without fatigue, offering a diverse range of fresh and delicious products at affordable prices [1] - The company has a significant presence in second-tier and lower cities, with a leading number of stores and the largest cold chain logistics system in the industry [1] Product Strategy - The product logic is defined by "fresh and high quality," with a focus on consistent product offerings and competitive pricing to drive consumer repurchase [2] - Gu Ming employs a strategy of large-scale procurement of fresh fruits and self-built cold chain logistics to enhance cost control and quality assurance, supporting store expansion [2] Market Potential - The mid-priced tea beverage segment is expected to grow rapidly, with the market size projected to exceed 500 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 15% [3] - There is significant room for market share consolidation in the mid-priced tea segment, with Gu Ming positioned to increase its market share due to its strong supply chain and store management [3] Financial Projections - Gu Ming is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of 2.19 billion, 2.50 billion, and 2.88 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 44%, 14%, and 15% respectively [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24, 21, and 18 times for the same period [3]

Group 1 - The new consumption concept in the Hong Kong stock market weakened in the afternoon session on October 24 [2] - Gu Ming (01364.HK) experienced a decline of over 2% [2] - Other companies such as Blu-ray (00325.HK) and Cha Bai Dao (02555.HK) also followed the downward trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Guming (01364) and keeps previous profit forecasts, expecting adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.19, 2.50, and 2.88 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 44%, 14%, and 15%, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 21, and 18 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Guming is positioned as a leading player in the mid-priced tea beverage market, with high quality-price ratio and stable quality control enhancing sales momentum [1] - The company is expected to achieve a store count of 35,000 to 40,000 in the future, supported by systematic advantages in operational efficiency and store layout [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The domestic ready-to-drink tea market is projected to exceed 500 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 15% [1] - There is significant room for market share consolidation in the mid-priced tea segment compared to coffee and affordable tea markets, indicating potential for Guming's market share to increase [1] - Consumer repurchase rates are critical for market share competition, with Guming expected to maintain strong repurchase performance due to solid supply chain construction and store management [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Gu Ming (01364) and keeps previous profit forecasts, expecting adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 to be 2.19 billion, 2.50 billion, and 2.88 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 44%, 14%, and 15% respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 21, and 18 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Gu Ming is recognized as a leading player in the mid-priced tea beverage market, benefiting from high quality-price ratio and stable quality control, which continuously strengthens sales momentum [1] - The company is expected to achieve a store count of 35,000 to 40,000 in the future, supported by systematic advantages in operational efficiency and store layout [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The domestic ready-to-drink tea market is projected to exceed 500 billion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 15% [1] - There is significant room for market share consolidation in the mid-priced tea segment compared to coffee and affordable tea markets, indicating potential for Gu Ming's market share to increase [1] - Consumer repurchase rates are critical for market share competition; Gu Ming's robust supply chain and store management contribute to stronger repurchase performance, making it less likely for new brands to rapidly gain market share in a weakening demand environment [1]