GUMING(01364)

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高盛:升古茗(01364)目标价至32港元 维持“买入”评级
智通财经网· 2025-08-28 08:00
Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Gu Ming (01364) has been opening stores at a pace exceeding expectations, driven by delivery subsidies and new product offerings, with GMV growth exceeding 20% in July and August [1] Group 1: Store Expansion and Performance - Gu Ming's store opening speed has consistently surpassed expectations [1] - The company has experienced strong GMV growth, with over 20% increase in July and August [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs has raised Gu Ming's profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 9% to 14% [1] - The adjusted core net profit forecast for this year has been increased from 2.2 billion RMB to 2.4 billion RMB [1] Group 3: Target Price and Rating - The target price for Gu Ming has been raised from 30 HKD to 32 HKD [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]
古茗(01364):2025年半年报点评:收入利润好于预期,开店速度加快
EBSCN· 2025-08-28 04:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.663 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, and a net profit of 1.625 billion CNY, up 121.5% year-on-year [5] - The company has accelerated its store opening pace, with a total of 11,179 stores as of the end of the first half of 2025, netting an increase of 1,265 stores [6] - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) reached 14.094 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, with a cup sales volume of 817 million cups, up 30.1% year-on-year [5][6] Revenue Performance - The company’s revenue from sales of goods and equipment, franchise management services, and direct store sales for the first half of 2025 were 4.496 billion CNY, 1.159 billion CNY, and 0.08 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.8%, 39.2%, and 14.0% [5] Store Expansion - The company opened 1,570 new stores and closed 305, resulting in a net increase of 1,265 stores in the first half of 2025, with a faster expansion rate compared to the first half of 2024 [6] Profitability Improvement - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 31.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating profit margin increased by 1.6 percentage points to 23.7% [7] - The net profit margin increased by 10.4 percentage points year-on-year to 28.7% [7] Market Trends - The company benefited from a surge in demand in the tea beverage industry due to promotional activities from major e-commerce platforms, which significantly boosted order volumes [8] - The company is actively expanding its coffee product line, leveraging its supply chain and operational capabilities to introduce high-value coffee products [8] Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.660 billion CNY, 2.588 billion CNY, and 3.067 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.12 CNY, 1.09 CNY, and 1.29 CNY [9][10]
古茗(01364):1H25新开门店和同店收入均超预期
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-28 03:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5][12] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 5.7 billion for 1H25, representing a year-on-year growth of 41%, and an adjusted core profit of RMB 1.1 billion, up 49% year-on-year, with an improved adjusted core profit margin of 20.1% [5][8] - The target price has been raised from HK$ 21.2 to HK$ 28, indicating a potential upside of 24% [5][8] - The company has seen significant growth in store numbers and same-store sales, with a net addition of 1,265 stores in 1H25, bringing the total to 11,179, and a same-store sales growth exceeding 20% in July and August [7][9][10] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the next few years are as follows: - 2023: RMB 7,676 million - 2024: RMB 8,791 million - 2025E: RMB 12,152 million - 2026E: RMB 13,527 million - 2027E: RMB 15,725 million - Adjusted core profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 1,459 million - 2024: RMB 1,542 million - 2025E: RMB 2,232 million - 2026E: RMB 2,450 million - 2027E: RMB 2,854 million - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been adjusted upward for the coming years [6][15] Store Expansion and Performance - The company has focused on expanding its presence in lower-tier cities, with 81% of stores located in tier-2 and below cities, and 43% in townships [7][9] - The average daily GMV per store increased by 21% year-on-year to approximately RMB 7,600 [10] - The coffee business has also progressed, with over 8,000 stores equipped with coffee machines and new coffee products launched [11] Conclusion - The report expresses confidence in the company's supply chain efficiency, product innovation capabilities, and strong potential for store openings, maintaining a positive outlook on its growth trajectory [12]
国信证券晨会纪要-20250828
Guoxin Securities· 2025-08-28 02:57
Group 1: Automotive Industry Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant shift towards intelligent driving technologies, with companies like HUAWEI and Horizon leading the way in advanced driver assistance systems [13][14]. - The penetration rate of L2 and above autonomous driving features in passenger vehicles reached 29.7% as of June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13 percentage points [14]. - Investment recommendations include companies such as Xpeng Motors, Leap Motor, and Geely for complete vehicles, and suppliers like Suoteng Technology and Hesai Technology for components [15]. Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - The pharmaceutical sector showed weaker performance compared to the overall market, with the biopharmaceutical segment rising only 1.05% [16]. - The World Lung Cancer Conference (WCLC) in September 2025 will showcase innovative research from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, highlighting the growing competitiveness of domestic products [16][17]. - Investment focus is recommended on companies presenting at major conferences like ESMO and WCLC, particularly those with promising clinical data [17]. Group 3: Mining and Metals Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit for H1 2025 increased by 60% to CNY 8.67 billion, driven by rising copper and cobalt prices alongside increased production [18][19]. - Zijin Mining reported a 54.41% year-on-year increase in net profit for H1 2025, attributed to a significant rise in gold production and prices [22][23]. - Cloud Aluminum's net profit for H1 2025 grew by 10%, with a strong performance in aluminum production and a proposed cash dividend of CNY 3.2 per share [20][21]. Group 4: Real Estate and Property Management - Poly Property's revenue for H1 2025 reached CNY 8.4 billion, with a net profit increase of 5%, indicating steady growth in property management services [31][32]. - Greentown China reported a significant decline in net profit by 89.7% for H1 2025, primarily due to uneven revenue recognition and asset impairment provisions [33][34]. - The company maintained a strong sales performance, with total sales area down only 10% compared to the industry average, reflecting resilience in a challenging market [34].
古茗CEO:外卖补贴大战对于加盟门店经营并非好事
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 02:24
Core Viewpoint - The impact of the recent food delivery competition initiated by major internet platforms on the new tea beverage brand, Gu Ming, is a focal point of investor interest [2] Company Summary - Gu Ming's CEO, Wang Yunan, stated that the long-term effects of the delivery subsidy war are detrimental to franchise operations and the industry's sustainable development [2] - The "zero purchase" activity launched by delivery platforms in July had a limited impact on Gu Ming, with each order affected by approximately 4-5 yuan [2] - Gu Ming reported that the competition from delivery platforms began in the second quarter, with minimal effects on the first quarter's performance [2] - Since August, the intensity of subsidy activities from delivery platforms has decreased [2] Industry Summary - The ongoing competition among food delivery platforms is expected to lead to a return to normal operational rhythms for brands once subsidies taper off [2] - Brands with lower average order values benefited more from the recent promotional activities [2]
古茗CEO王云安:长期来看,外卖补贴大战对于加盟门店经营并非好事
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 02:05
8月27日晚间,古茗(01364.HK)召开2025年上半年业绩说明会。今年夏季由淘宝、美团、京东三家互 联网巨头掀起的外卖大战对新茶饮品牌的影响,成为投资者关注的焦点。 古茗披露,外卖平台的竞争主要从第二季度开始,第一季度没有受到影响;7月开始活动力度加大,总 体来说对上半年的业绩影响有限。8月以来,外卖平台的活动补贴力度已有所下降。(智通财经记者 卢 奕贝) 古茗创始人兼首席执行官王云安在业绩会上表示,长期来看,外卖补贴大战对于加盟门店经营并非好 事,也不利于行业长期发展,补贴退潮后,品牌仍需要回归正常的经营节奏当中。 今年7月,外卖平台们开展"零元购"活动,由于该活动仅每周六进行,对古茗而言每单的影响约4—5 元。王云安表示,客单价更低的品牌,在此活动中收益更多。 ...
古茗半年利润16.26亿超2024年全年 门店增至1.12万家单店GMV涨20.6%
Chang Jiang Shang Bao· 2025-08-27 23:47
Core Insights - Gu Ming (01364.HK) reported impressive financial results for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 5.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, and a profit of 1.626 billion yuan, up 119.8% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company's profit for the entire year of 2024 was 1.493 billion yuan, while the profit for the first half of 2025 has already exceeded the total for 2024 [1][3] - The adjusted profit for the first half of 2025, excluding a one-time financial gain, was 1.086 billion yuan, reflecting a 42.4% year-on-year growth [3] - Gross profit for the first half of 2025 increased by 41.0% to 1.786 billion yuan, with a stable gross margin of 31.5% [3] Revenue Structure - The primary revenue source for the first half of 2025 was from the sale of goods and equipment, contributing 4.496 billion yuan, a 41.8% increase, accounting for 79.4% of total revenue [3] - Franchise management service revenue reached 1.159 billion yuan, growing by 39.0% [3] Store Expansion and Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Gu Ming had a total of 11,179 stores, a 17.48% increase from 9,516 stores in 2024 [1][6] - The average GMV per store for the first half of 2025 was 1.3705 million yuan, a 20.6% increase, with daily average GMV rising from 6,200 yuan to 7,600 yuan [6] - The number of daily cups sold per store increased from 374 to 439, indicating strong consumer demand [6] Market Strategy - The company has focused on expanding its presence in lower-tier cities, with 81% of its stores located in second-tier and below cities, and 43% in townships [6] - Gu Ming's membership base has grown to 178 million registered users, with approximately 50 million active members quarterly, enhancing its private traffic pool [7] Future Outlook - The company plans to utilize the remaining 1.777 billion yuan from its global offering for digital upgrades, supply chain optimization, and brand building [7] - Gu Ming aims to continue its four core strategies: expanding the store network, enhancing technology for operational efficiency, increasing product development, and strengthening brand connections with consumers [7]
古茗(01364):1H业绩表现亮眼,未来增长仍具内外动能
Haitong Securities International· 2025-08-27 23:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Guming Holdings [2][12] Core Views - Guming Holdings reported outstanding performance in 1H, with revenue reaching RMB 5.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41% [3][11] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by store expansion and product innovation, with projected revenues of RMB 12.4 billion, RMB 15.2 billion, and RMB 18.8 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][12] Financial Performance - In 1H, Guming's adjusted net profit was RMB 1.09 billion, up 42% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2% [3][11] - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 31.5%, remaining stable compared to previous periods [5][11] - The number of stores increased by 1,265 in 1H, bringing the total to 11,179, with a significant presence in lower-tier cities [4][11] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue sources included sales of goods and equipment (RMB 4.5 billion), franchise management services (RMB 1.16 billion), and direct store sales (RMB 0.01 billion), with respective year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 39%, and 14% [4][11] - The average daily sales per store reached approximately RMB 7,600, a 23% increase year-on-year, with an average of 439 cups sold per store daily [4][11] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the second half of the year, driven by the expansion of delivery services and the introduction of new products, particularly in the coffee segment [5][12] - The adjusted net profit is projected to grow to RMB 2.30 billion, RMB 2.79 billion, and RMB 3.49 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a robust growth outlook [6][12]
东吴证券晨会纪要-20250828
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-27 23:30
Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint highlights the unprecedented removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for more "Trump-aligned" appointees, which could lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in the future [1] - Following the removal announcement, market reactions included rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices, while the U.S. dollar index declined, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards risk assets [1] Fixed Income - The report indicates a cautious approach in the convertible bond market, suggesting a reduction in exposure to high-priced targets while increasing allocations to ETFs to balance risks [2][3] - The 10-year government bond yield increased from 1.745% to 1.785%, reflecting market adjustments to macroeconomic conditions [2] Industry Insights - New Lai Ying Material (300260) reported improved Q2 performance, benefiting from growth in the semiconductor and liquid cooling sectors, with a focus on domestic substitution and an optimized customer structure [5][6] - Li Yuan Heng (688499) achieved profitability with a robust order backlog in solid-state battery equipment, indicating a strong operational cash flow and successful delivery to major clients [7] - Jin Zai Food (003000) is experiencing a Q2 adjustment period, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a mismatch between internal expansion strategies and external market conditions [8][9] - Anpei Long (301413) reported steady growth in its temperature and pressure sensor business while investing in humanoid robotics, adjusting profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [10] - Xinde New Materials (301349) is seeing significant growth in fast-charging products, with profit forecasts adjusted upwards due to improved margins [11] - The report on China National Railway (601766) indicates strong growth in H1 2025, driven by recovery in railway fixed asset investments [18] - The report on China Duty Free Group (601888) highlights a narrowing revenue decline in Q2 2025, with a focus on expanding city store operations to boost sales [31] - Yun Aluminum (000807) reported a 17.98% increase in revenue for H1 2025, with a focus on maintaining high profit margins amid fluctuating aluminum prices [32][33]
规模效应开始显现,古茗半年净利润超去年全年:三条业绩“驱动链”能否抵御下半年行业风险?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-27 15:25
每经记者|王紫薇 每经编辑|董兴生 8月26日,新茶饮品牌古茗(01364.HK)交出了上市后的首份中期成绩单。财报显示,2025年上半年,公司收入达56.63亿元,同比增长41.2%;净利润为 16.25亿元,同比大增121.5%,甚至超过去年全年水平(14.79亿元);基本每股净收益为0.72元,同比提升84.6%。 《每日经济新闻》记者发现,古茗的这份"炸裂"成绩单得益于三条"增长链":一是大举扩张门店网络,二是单店效率提升,三是供应链与数字化沉淀。 而行业人士向记者分析,这三条互相驱动的"增长链"是古茗实现增长的主要原因。另一方面,今年下半年的行业竞争加剧,外卖平台补贴战升级、加盟商回 报周期拉长等风险因素,可能对古茗的增长节奏构成挑战。 图片来源:每经记者 孔泽思 摄 半年净利润超去年全年,古茗也有了规模效应 在瑞幸门店达到1万家时,其品牌规模效应开始显现。在此次报告期内,古茗门店数量也超过了1万家,并且同样展现出规模效应的威力。 所谓规模效应,是指品牌在门店数量达到一定程度后,品牌逐渐积累了更强的获客优势,从而可以提高营收;而广泛密集的门店形成的门店网络,还将不断 摊薄供应链的运营成本,让企业进入 ...