Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The tea beverage sector has garnered significant attention this year, with low penetration rates indicating high growth potential. The report highlights the disparity between market expectations and the actual performance of the company, Gu Ming, particularly in the Beijing and Shanghai regions, suggesting it as a core target for deeper analysis [3] - The report utilizes the narrative logic of the popular film "The Longan Lychee" to analyze Gu Ming's supply chain barriers and predict the drivers and extent of future profit margin improvements [3] Summary by Sections Selection - Gu Ming has established a scientific and standardized process across all stages of product selection, from planting to procurement and research and development, achieving a 95% success rate in product quality [4] - The company has built its own tea blending factory with over 40 R&D personnel, half of whom hold master's degrees or higher. This has led to significant sales success, with the "Cloud Mist Ziziphus Tea" selling over 2 million cups weekly for eight consecutive weeks [4][8] Transportation - Gu Ming has customized its transportation process, achieving a product loss rate of approximately 10%, significantly lower than the industry average of 20%. The average delivery cost from warehouse to store is only 1% of GMV, compared to the industry average of 2% [5][14] Upgrading - The company has demonstrated strong product innovation capabilities, with 2 to 3 new products appearing in the top 10 bestsellers each year from 2021 to 2023. The average quarterly repurchase rate for Gu Ming reached 53% in 2023, far exceeding the industry average of below 30% [21][22] - Gu Ming's market share, measured by the number of stores, increased from 1.9% in 2022 to 2.5% in 2024, reflecting the company's growth and competitive positioning [22] Profitability - The report anticipates that Gu Ming's gross profit margin will continue to improve, with an expected optimization of approximately 1 percentage point in the sales product gross margin over the next three years. The gross profit margin for sales products increased by about 2 percentage points from 2021 to 2023 [29][30] - The average delivery cost from warehouse to store is projected to further optimize by approximately 0.35 percentage points, while administrative and R&D expenses are expected to improve by nearly 1 percentage point over the same period [36][40]

Group 1 - Company Overview: Founded in 2010 by Wang Yunan in Zhejiang, Guming specializes in fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee, targeting the "small town youth" demographic with affordable pricing between 10-20 RMB [1][3] - Ownership Structure: Wang Yunan holds 43.21% of shares, making him the largest shareholder, while co-founders Qi Xia and Ruan Xiudi hold 19.78% and 13.74% respectively [1] - Funding History: Prior to its IPO, Guming secured two rounds of financing from notable investors including Sequoia China, Meituan, Tencent, and others [1] Group 2 - Revenue Growth: In 2024, Guming reported revenue of 8.79 billion RMB, reflecting a 14.5% year-on-year increase, but a significant decline from the previous year's 38.1% growth [4][6] - Profitability Concerns: The adjusted net profit grew only 5.7% to 1.54 billion RMB, indicating a decline in core business profitability despite a nominal increase in net profit [5][6] Group 3 - Market Saturation: The tea beverage market is experiencing high saturation, with over 410,000 milk tea shops nationwide and a closure rate of 60% in lower-tier cities, leading to reduced customer acquisition and retention for Guming [7][9] - Competitive Landscape: Guming faces intense competition from both high-end brands like Heytea and Nayuki, which have entered the lower price segments, and low-cost competitors like Mixue Ice City [9][12] Group 4 - Innovation Challenges: Guming launched 85 new products in 2024, but none became a hit, leading to a decline in customer loyalty and increased competition in a market characterized by product homogeneity [11][12] - Strategic Dilemmas: The company is caught in a strategic bind due to price wars and a lack of unique selling propositions, making it difficult to attract new customers and retain existing ones [12][13] Group 5 - Franchise Expansion Issues: Guming's franchise growth has slowed, with new store openings dropping from 2,597 in 2023 to 1,587 in 2024, while closures increased significantly [17][23] - Store Performance Metrics: Single-store GMV decreased from 2.47 million RMB in 2023 to 2.36 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a decline in sales efficiency [19][21] Group 6 - Shift to Coffee: Guming is pivoting towards the coffee market as a second growth curve, recognizing the trend of coffee becoming a mainstream beverage and leveraging its existing infrastructure [25][28] - Operational Strengths: The company has a robust supply chain and a high "second store rate" among franchisees, indicating confidence in the brand and providing a buffer for operational adjustments [24][29] Group 7 - Market Positioning: Guming aims to integrate coffee and tea offerings, creating a "tea-coffee integrated" experience to meet diverse consumer demands and enhance brand loyalty [34][35] - Future Growth Strategy: The company is focused on breaking category boundaries and embracing market trends to navigate the challenges of a saturated market and achieve sustainable growth [35]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the competitive landscape of the tea beverage industry, focusing on four major players: Gu Ming, Cha Bai Dao, Hu Shang A Yi, and Mi Xue Bing Cheng, particularly examining their business models and supply chain strategies to identify potential winners in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Business Model Analysis - Gu Ming, Cha Bai Dao, and Hu Shang A Yi were initially regional brands that expanded nationally through a franchise model, with nearly 10,000 stores each by 2024 [4][5]. - The core product offerings of these brands are similar, focusing on fresh milk tea and fresh fruit tea, with prices generally between 10-20 yuan [4][5]. - All four brands utilize a franchise model, generating revenue primarily through franchise fees and sales of ingredients and materials to franchisees [7][11]. Group 2: Supply Chain Comparison - Mi Xue Bing Cheng has the strongest supply chain, leveraging direct sourcing and self-production to minimize costs, while Gu Ming follows closely with a robust supply chain and its own cold chain logistics [13][15]. - Cha Bai Dao and Hu Shang A Yi have weaker supply chains, relying heavily on third-party logistics, which limits their cost control and can lead to quality inconsistencies [16][18]. - The supply chain capabilities significantly impact the brands' resilience during market pressures, with Mi Xue Bing Cheng and Gu Ming showing stability, while Cha Bai Dao and Hu Shang A Yi face declining same-store sales [16][18]. Group 3: Expansion Strategies - Gu Ming employs a unique regional densification strategy, focusing on achieving critical scale within provinces before expanding to neighboring areas, contrasting with the national spread of its competitors [19][20]. - This strategy allows Gu Ming to maintain a high density of stores in key provinces, enhancing supply chain efficiency and reducing logistics costs [24][25]. - Gu Ming's approach has resulted in a significant market share in its initial provinces, with over 25% in Zhejiang, Fujian, and Jiangxi, and a dominant position in the mid-range price segment [28][29]. Group 4: Product Development Strategy - Gu Ming adopts a fast-fashion approach to product development, quickly introducing and iterating on popular items while maintaining a high research and development investment [30][31]. - This strategy allows Gu Ming to respond effectively to changing consumer preferences, achieving a high acceptance rate for new products and a quarterly repurchase rate of 53% [31][32]. - The competitive advantage lies in the ability to provide high-quality products at competitive prices, driven by an efficient supply chain [32][36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ready-to-drink beverage market in China is growing rapidly, with a significant increase in market share expected for affordable ready-to-drink products in the future [1] - In 2023, the ready-to-drink beverage market size in China reached 517.5 billion yuan, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market, a 15.7% increase from 2018 [1] - The market size for ready-to-drink beverages is projected to reach 1,163.4 billion yuan by 2028, with a market share of 49.2%, reflecting a growth of 12.9% from 2023 [1] Group 2 - The company ranked second in the ready-to-drink tea market, with a GMV of 19.2 billion yuan and a market share of 9.1%, operating 9,001 stores nationwide [1] - The company’s product development capabilities are a core competitive advantage, focusing on fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee, with regular new product launches [1] - The company has upgraded its product "Super A Cheese Grape" 11 times since its launch in June 2019, ensuring consistent taste by using different grape varieties seasonally [1] Group 3 - The company has established 22 warehousing bases nationwide, with approximately 76% of stores located within 150 kilometers of a warehouse, ensuring efficient logistics [2] - The average logistics cost for the company is less than 1% of the total GMV as of the end of 2023 [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.925 billion yuan, 2.288 billion yuan, and 2.635 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 30.19%, 18.87%, and 15.17% respectively [2]