Core Viewpoint - The company, Guming, is positioned as a leading player in the affordable tea beverage market, focusing on high-quality products and rapid expansion into lower-tier cities, capitalizing on the growing demand for fresh tea drinks in China [3][22]. Company Overview - Guming was founded in 2010 and has grown to become the largest affordable tea beverage brand in China, with over 10,000 stores nationwide [3][8]. - The company has adopted a regional densification strategy, focusing on lower-tier markets, and has established a robust supply chain to support its operations [3][10]. Financial Performance - Guming's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 26.1% from 2021 to 2024, reaching approximately 87.91 billion yuan in 2024 [12][14]. - The company's net profit is expected to increase at a CAGR of 319% during the same period, driven by store expansion and improved operational efficiency [12][14]. Market Dynamics - The ready-to-drink tea market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size reaching 258.5 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 50% of the ready-to-drink beverage market [22][24]. - The affordable tea beverage segment is leading the market, with a projected CAGR of 20.8% from 2024 to 2028 [24][27]. Competitive Landscape - The ready-to-drink tea industry is highly concentrated, with the top five brands accounting for 46.9% of the market share [25][27]. - Guming holds a significant market share of 17.7% in the affordable tea beverage segment, positioning itself as a leader in this competitive landscape [27][29]. Product Strategy - Guming's product offerings are primarily priced between 10-18 yuan, focusing on fresh fruit teas and milk teas, with continuous innovation in product formulations to maintain competitiveness [5][6]. - The company has a dedicated R&D team that collaborates with academic institutions to enhance product quality and meet consumer demands [5][6]. Store Expansion - Guming's store count has grown from 5,694 in 2021 to 9,914 in 2024, with a CAGR of 20.2% [8][12]. - The company has successfully penetrated lower-tier cities, with 80% of its stores located in second-tier cities and below, maximizing market potential [8][10]. Supply Chain and Logistics - Guming has established a cold chain logistics system that ensures fresh ingredients are delivered to stores within two days, enhancing product quality and customer satisfaction [3][10]. - The company operates approximately 300 cold chain delivery vehicles and over 20 warehouses nationwide, strengthening its supply chain capabilities [3][10]. Management and Governance - The company is led by founder Wang Yunan, who has a strong background in the tea beverage industry and has been instrumental in Guming's strategic direction and growth [19][21]. - Guming's ownership structure is concentrated, with major shareholders including well-known investment firms such as Meituan and Sequoia Capital [16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The tea beverage sector has garnered significant attention this year, with low penetration rates indicating high growth potential. The report highlights the disparity between market expectations and the actual performance of the company, Gu Ming, particularly in the Beijing and Shanghai regions, suggesting it as a core target for deeper analysis [3] - The report utilizes the narrative logic of the popular film "The Longan Lychee" to analyze Gu Ming's supply chain barriers and predict the drivers and extent of future profit margin improvements [3] Summary by Sections Selection - Gu Ming has established a scientific and standardized process across all stages of product selection, from planting to procurement and research and development, achieving a 95% success rate in product quality [4] - The company has built its own tea blending factory with over 40 R&D personnel, half of whom hold master's degrees or higher. This has led to significant sales success, with the "Cloud Mist Ziziphus Tea" selling over 2 million cups weekly for eight consecutive weeks [4][8] Transportation - Gu Ming has customized its transportation process, achieving a product loss rate of approximately 10%, significantly lower than the industry average of 20%. The average delivery cost from warehouse to store is only 1% of GMV, compared to the industry average of 2% [5][14] Upgrading - The company has demonstrated strong product innovation capabilities, with 2 to 3 new products appearing in the top 10 bestsellers each year from 2021 to 2023. The average quarterly repurchase rate for Gu Ming reached 53% in 2023, far exceeding the industry average of below 30% [21][22] - Gu Ming's market share, measured by the number of stores, increased from 1.9% in 2022 to 2.5% in 2024, reflecting the company's growth and competitive positioning [22] Profitability - The report anticipates that Gu Ming's gross profit margin will continue to improve, with an expected optimization of approximately 1 percentage point in the sales product gross margin over the next three years. The gross profit margin for sales products increased by about 2 percentage points from 2021 to 2023 [29][30] - The average delivery cost from warehouse to store is projected to further optimize by approximately 0.35 percentage points, while administrative and R&D expenses are expected to improve by nearly 1 percentage point over the same period [36][40]

Group 1 - Company Overview: Founded in 2010 by Wang Yunan in Zhejiang, Guming specializes in fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee, targeting the "small town youth" demographic with affordable pricing between 10-20 RMB [1][3] - Ownership Structure: Wang Yunan holds 43.21% of shares, making him the largest shareholder, while co-founders Qi Xia and Ruan Xiudi hold 19.78% and 13.74% respectively [1] - Funding History: Prior to its IPO, Guming secured two rounds of financing from notable investors including Sequoia China, Meituan, Tencent, and others [1] Group 2 - Revenue Growth: In 2024, Guming reported revenue of 8.79 billion RMB, reflecting a 14.5% year-on-year increase, but a significant decline from the previous year's 38.1% growth [4][6] - Profitability Concerns: The adjusted net profit grew only 5.7% to 1.54 billion RMB, indicating a decline in core business profitability despite a nominal increase in net profit [5][6] Group 3 - Market Saturation: The tea beverage market is experiencing high saturation, with over 410,000 milk tea shops nationwide and a closure rate of 60% in lower-tier cities, leading to reduced customer acquisition and retention for Guming [7][9] - Competitive Landscape: Guming faces intense competition from both high-end brands like Heytea and Nayuki, which have entered the lower price segments, and low-cost competitors like Mixue Ice City [9][12] Group 4 - Innovation Challenges: Guming launched 85 new products in 2024, but none became a hit, leading to a decline in customer loyalty and increased competition in a market characterized by product homogeneity [11][12] - Strategic Dilemmas: The company is caught in a strategic bind due to price wars and a lack of unique selling propositions, making it difficult to attract new customers and retain existing ones [12][13] Group 5 - Franchise Expansion Issues: Guming's franchise growth has slowed, with new store openings dropping from 2,597 in 2023 to 1,587 in 2024, while closures increased significantly [17][23] - Store Performance Metrics: Single-store GMV decreased from 2.47 million RMB in 2023 to 2.36 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a decline in sales efficiency [19][21] Group 6 - Shift to Coffee: Guming is pivoting towards the coffee market as a second growth curve, recognizing the trend of coffee becoming a mainstream beverage and leveraging its existing infrastructure [25][28] - Operational Strengths: The company has a robust supply chain and a high "second store rate" among franchisees, indicating confidence in the brand and providing a buffer for operational adjustments [24][29] Group 7 - Market Positioning: Guming aims to integrate coffee and tea offerings, creating a "tea-coffee integrated" experience to meet diverse consumer demands and enhance brand loyalty [34][35] - Future Growth Strategy: The company is focused on breaking category boundaries and embracing market trends to navigate the challenges of a saturated market and achieve sustainable growth [35]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the competitive landscape of the tea beverage industry, focusing on four major players: Gu Ming, Cha Bai Dao, Hu Shang A Yi, and Mi Xue Bing Cheng, particularly examining their business models and supply chain strategies to identify potential winners in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Business Model Analysis - Gu Ming, Cha Bai Dao, and Hu Shang A Yi were initially regional brands that expanded nationally through a franchise model, with nearly 10,000 stores each by 2024 [4][5]. - The core product offerings of these brands are similar, focusing on fresh milk tea and fresh fruit tea, with prices generally between 10-20 yuan [4][5]. - All four brands utilize a franchise model, generating revenue primarily through franchise fees and sales of ingredients and materials to franchisees [7][11]. Group 2: Supply Chain Comparison - Mi Xue Bing Cheng has the strongest supply chain, leveraging direct sourcing and self-production to minimize costs, while Gu Ming follows closely with a robust supply chain and its own cold chain logistics [13][15]. - Cha Bai Dao and Hu Shang A Yi have weaker supply chains, relying heavily on third-party logistics, which limits their cost control and can lead to quality inconsistencies [16][18]. - The supply chain capabilities significantly impact the brands' resilience during market pressures, with Mi Xue Bing Cheng and Gu Ming showing stability, while Cha Bai Dao and Hu Shang A Yi face declining same-store sales [16][18]. Group 3: Expansion Strategies - Gu Ming employs a unique regional densification strategy, focusing on achieving critical scale within provinces before expanding to neighboring areas, contrasting with the national spread of its competitors [19][20]. - This strategy allows Gu Ming to maintain a high density of stores in key provinces, enhancing supply chain efficiency and reducing logistics costs [24][25]. - Gu Ming's approach has resulted in a significant market share in its initial provinces, with over 25% in Zhejiang, Fujian, and Jiangxi, and a dominant position in the mid-range price segment [28][29]. Group 4: Product Development Strategy - Gu Ming adopts a fast-fashion approach to product development, quickly introducing and iterating on popular items while maintaining a high research and development investment [30][31]. - This strategy allows Gu Ming to respond effectively to changing consumer preferences, achieving a high acceptance rate for new products and a quarterly repurchase rate of 53% [31][32]. - The competitive advantage lies in the ability to provide high-quality products at competitive prices, driven by an efficient supply chain [32][36].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ready-to-drink beverage market in China is growing rapidly, with a significant increase in market share expected for affordable ready-to-drink products in the future [1] - In 2023, the ready-to-drink beverage market size in China reached 517.5 billion yuan, accounting for 36.3% of the beverage market, a 15.7% increase from 2018 [1] - The market size for ready-to-drink beverages is projected to reach 1,163.4 billion yuan by 2028, with a market share of 49.2%, reflecting a growth of 12.9% from 2023 [1] Group 2 - The company ranked second in the ready-to-drink tea market, with a GMV of 19.2 billion yuan and a market share of 9.1%, operating 9,001 stores nationwide [1] - The company’s product development capabilities are a core competitive advantage, focusing on fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee, with regular new product launches [1] - The company has upgraded its product "Super A Cheese Grape" 11 times since its launch in June 2019, ensuring consistent taste by using different grape varieties seasonally [1] Group 3 - The company has established 22 warehousing bases nationwide, with approximately 76% of stores located within 150 kilometers of a warehouse, ensuring efficient logistics [2] - The average logistics cost for the company is less than 1% of the total GMV as of the end of 2023 [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.925 billion yuan, 2.288 billion yuan, and 2.635 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 30.19%, 18.87%, and 15.17% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between the tea brand Gu Ming and the popular game IP "崩坏：星穹铁道" (Honkai: Star Rail) has led to significant consumer interest and controversy due to insufficient stock and overwhelming demand, highlighting the challenges of managing high-profile collaborations in the beverage industry [2][3][5]. Group 1: Collaboration Details - Gu Ming launched its collaboration with "崩铁" on April 18, 2024, offering limited-edition drinks and merchandise, which quickly sold out due to high demand, with 1.2 million people reportedly queuing for the purchase [5][8]. - The collaboration included popular drink flavors and exclusive merchandise such as stickers and badges, which attracted significant attention from fans [5][6]. - Despite previous successful collaborations with other IPs, this particular launch faced criticism for inadequate preparation and stock levels, leading to consumer dissatisfaction [3][6]. Group 2: Sales and Financial Impact - The overwhelming demand resulted in an estimated sales figure of at least 20 million yuan on the first day, assuming each of the 1.2 million queuing customers purchased one drink at a minimum price of 16.9 yuan [8]. - Gu Ming's marketing expenses have increased significantly, with sales and distribution costs rising from 3.366 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.794 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting the costs associated with frequent collaborations [9]. - The tea industry is experiencing heightened competition, prompting brands to adjust pricing strategies, with Gu Ming and others lowering entry-level product prices to attract consumers [11][12]. Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The collaboration reflects a broader trend in the tea and beverage industry where brands are increasingly leveraging popular IPs to drive sales and brand awareness [9][10]. - However, the frequency of collaborations may lead to consumer fatigue, as seen in the case of another brand, which reported a decline in revenue despite increased marketing spending [9][10]. - The industry is shifting focus towards lower-tier markets, with brands exploring opportunities in smaller towns, indicating a strategic pivot in response to competitive pressures [12].