证 券 研 究 报 告 春节旅游跟踪报告 超长假期+政策助力催生全面景气，酒店涨价 推荐（维持） 幅度超预期 ❑ 风险提示：宏观经济波动；高频数据更新不及时；政策落地不及预期。 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 锦江酒店 | 600754.SH | 28.28 | 0.85 | 1.09 | 1.21 | 33.14 | 25.97 | 23.34 | 1.98 | 推荐 | | 首旅酒店 | 600258.SH | 17.46 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 0.96 | 21.93 | 19.89 | 18.19 | 1.67 | 推荐 | | 古茗 | 01364.HK | 28.48 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1. ...

本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 在个股方面，高盛持续看好即制饮品行业龙头古茗(01364)及蜜雪集团(02097)，将古茗目标价上调至34 港元，给予"确信买入"评级；将蜜雪集团目标价调整至493港元，给予"买入"评级。该行尤其看好古 茗，指出其过往在消费场景拓展及新产品推出方面表现强劲，门店仍具备较大扩张空间，同时上调古茗 2025至2027年核心盈利预测4%至6%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 高盛发布研报称，预期2026年内地餐饮销售同比增长4.2%，增速较2025年的3.2%有所加快。该行观察 到，尽管当前整体消费尚未出现显著好转，但过去数月餐饮需求已趋于稳定。同时，餐饮行业出现加价 情况，该行认为此举是为应对营运及原材料成本上升、外卖订单占比增加，需求回稳也为此举提供了支 撑。 针对即制饮品企业，该行表示，2026年第二至第三季，行业将面临同店销售增长的高基数挑战。不过年 初至今外卖补贴水平较预期更高，叠加产品种类扩张、消费场景进一步丰富，将为同店销售增长提供支 撑。但外卖订单占比上升可能对企业盈利能力及门店运营产生负面影响，相关品牌或需提 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，农历新年假期消费表现鼓舞，餐饮旅游需求强劲。 建议优先配 置餐饮旅游需求受惠股，首选古茗(01364)、百胜中国(09987)、农夫山泉(09633)、康师傅控股(00322) 、 华润啤酒(00291)及贵州茅台(600519.SH)。 报告指，注意到中国经济出现复通胀的初步迹象，主要由服务消费驱动，体现于餐饮、旅游、交通及住 宿领域的价格上涨与促销活动减少。 2026年农历新年期间餐饮销售表现优于市场预期，节日首四日日 均营收同比增长8.6%，而2025年同期增幅仅为4.1%。 自百胜中国2025年11月指出消费者信心初现改善 迹象以来，需求复苏步伐持续加快。 该行继续将古茗与百胜中国列为餐饮业首选股，并指出若餐饮复苏范围扩大，餐饮场所酒精消费复苏表 现可能优于市场所担忧。 同时看好农夫山泉与康师傅，两者将成为强劲国内旅游需求的关键受益者。 ...

该行继续将古茗与百胜中国列为餐饮业首选股，并指出若餐饮复苏范围扩大，餐饮场所酒精消费复苏表 现可能优于市场所担忧。同时看好农夫山泉与康师傅，两者将成为强劲国内旅游需求的关键受益者。 报告指，注意到中国经济出现复通胀的初步迹象，主要由服务消费驱动，体现于餐饮、旅游、交通及住 宿领域的价格上涨与促销活动减少。2026年农历新年期间餐饮销售表现优于市场预期，节日首四日日均 营收同比增长8.6%，而2025年同期增幅仅为4.1%。自百胜中国2025年11月指出消费者信心初现改善迹 象以来，需求复苏步伐持续加快。 大和发布研报称，农历新年假期消费表现鼓舞，餐饮旅游需求强劲。建议优先配置餐饮旅游需求受惠 股，首选古茗(01364)、百胜中国(09987)、农夫山泉(09633)、康师傅控股(00322)、华润啤酒(00291)及贵 州茅台（600519）(600519.SH)。 ...

股份方面，该行持续看好即制饮品行业龙头，包括古茗(01364)及蜜雪集团(02097)，古茗目标价升至34 港元，蜜雪目标价调整至493港元，分别予"确信买入"及"买入"评级，尤其看好前者。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，预期今年内地餐饮销售增长加快至同比升4.2%，增速快于去年的 3.2%。虽然整体消费仍未见显著好转，但该行观察到过去数月餐饮需求已趋于稳定。同时，行业出现 加价情况，该行认为是为了应对营运和原材料成本上升，以及外卖订单占比增加，亦受需求回稳所支 持。 对于即制饮品企业，该行认为今年第二至第三季将面对同店销售增长的高基数挑战，但年初至今的外卖 补贴水平仍较预期高，加上产品种类扩张，以及更丰富的消费场景，均支持同店销售增长。不过外卖订 单占比上升或对盈利能力及门店产生负面影响，可能令品牌提供支持或补贴。 ...

股份方面，该行持续看好即制饮品行业龙头，包括古茗(01364)及蜜雪集团(02097)，古茗目标价升至34 港元，蜜雪目标价调整至493港元，分别予"确信买入"及"买入"评级，尤其看好前者。 对于即制饮品企业，该行认为今年第二至第三季将面对同店销售增长的高基数挑战，但年初至今的外卖 补贴水平仍较预期高，加上产品种类扩张，以及更丰富的消费场景，均支持同店销售增长。不过外卖订 单占比上升或对盈利能力及门店产生负面影响，可能令品牌提供支持或补贴。 高盛发布研报称，预期今年内地餐饮销售增长加快至同比升4.2%，增速快于去年的3.2%。虽然整体消 费仍未见显著好转，但该行观察到过去数月餐饮需求已趋于稳定。同时，行业出现加价情况，该行认为 是为了应对营运和原材料成本上升，以及外卖订单占比增加，亦受需求回稳所支持。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the tea beverage industry, specifically the company "Guming" (古茗) and its market position within the sector. The tea beverage industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 15% over the next five years due to changes in consumer preferences and market dynamics [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments Industry Growth and Market Dynamics - The tea beverage industry is experiencing a shift towards premiumization, with a notable distinction between low-priced (below 10 RMB) and mid-priced (above 10 RMB) segments. The low-priced segment is dominated by Guming, which holds nearly 60% market share in this category [1][2]. - The mid-priced segment faces intense competition, requiring brands to possess strong management capabilities and a robust supply chain to maintain long-term competitiveness [2]. Guming's Business Model and Growth Strategy - Guming has established a significant presence with over 13,000 stores and aims to reach 20,000 by 2027, with a long-term target of approximately 40,000 stores in China [3][7]. - The company has undergone three phases of development: establishing its business model (2010-2017), expanding through regional strategies (2019-2021), and accelerating growth post-IPO [3][6]. - Guming's revenue model primarily relies on a franchise system, generating income from supply chain services and initial franchise fees. The company reported a GMV of 106 billion RMB in 2021, projected to reach 340 billion RMB in 2025, with a CAGR of approximately 34% [7][8]. Financial Performance and Projections - Guming's revenue for 2025 is expected to reach 13.6 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth rate of around 55%. The adjusted net profit is projected to be between 2.4 billion and 2.5 billion RMB, reflecting a 60% increase [8][26]. - The company has maintained a strong cash flow due to its franchise model, allowing for significant reinvestment in growth and expansion [6][11]. Competitive Advantages - Guming's competitive edge lies in its supply chain efficiency, product innovation, and strong brand loyalty. The company has a high customer retention rate, with a quarterly active membership of approximately 39.5 million, significantly higher than competitors [19][20]. - The company has a low closure rate of 4-6% compared to competitors, indicating strong franchisee satisfaction and operational stability [21]. Future Growth Opportunities - Guming plans to expand its product offerings beyond tea to include coffee and breakfast items, aiming to enhance customer engagement and increase sales per store [22][23]. - The company is focusing on penetrating underrepresented markets, with significant potential for growth in northern China, where it currently has limited presence [24][25]. Other Important Insights - Guming's management team is highly involved in operations, with a concentrated ownership structure that aligns the interests of key stakeholders [8][10]. - The company’s pricing strategy aims to balance affordability for consumers while ensuring reasonable returns for franchisees, which is crucial for sustaining growth in a competitive market [15][16]. - The upcoming conference call will delve deeper into Guming's product, supply chain, and management advantages, as well as comparisons with competitors [27]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting Guming's strategic positioning, financial outlook, and competitive landscape within the tea beverage industry.

Group 1 - The launch of the 30 billion yuan subsidy project by Alibaba's Qianwen App is expected to benefit the sales of ready-to-drink beverages [2][3] - The first wave of the subsidy activity runs from February 6 to 12, offering users a 25 yuan no-threshold free order card, which can be used at over 300,000 tea and coffee shops nationwide [2] - The second wave starting February 13 will allow users to receive cash red envelopes, with a maximum of 2888 yuan available [2] Group 2 - The activity has seen significant engagement, with over 1 million orders placed within 3 hours and over 10 million orders within 9 hours of launch [3] - The current trend indicates a high level of activity in the ready-to-drink beverage market during the Spring Festival, with ongoing subsidies for delivery services [3] - The competitive landscape in the beverage industry is improving, with a slowdown in price wars and a reduction in the number of new stores opening [4] Group 3 - Recommended companies in the beverage sector include Gu Ming (01364), Mixue Group (02097), Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US), Cha Bai Dao (02555), and Hu Shang A Yi (02589) [5]

Group 1 - The core event is the launch of Alibaba's "Spring Festival 3 Billion Free Orders" campaign, which generated significant consumer interest and led to a surge in orders, reaching 10 million within 9 hours of launch [1] - The campaign's free order cards were initially set to expire on February 23 but were extended to February 28 to accommodate consumer demand, allowing purchases not only for milk tea but also for various food items [1] - The campaign caused operational chaos in many tea beverage stores across the country, with reports of overwhelmed staff and systems crashing due to the high volume of orders [1][2] Group 2 - The sudden spike in demand positively impacted the stock performance of tea beverage companies, with notable increases in share prices for brands like Cha Bai Dao (up 6.08%) and Gu Ming (up 3.58%) on February 6 [2] - The new tea beverage market has seen a slowdown in growth, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 300 billion yuan by 2025, but growth rates have dropped from over 20% to single digits [3] - External support from major platforms like Alibaba provides a significant boost to tea brands, enhancing brand visibility and customer acquisition at a low cost, which is seen as a profitable opportunity for these companies [4] Group 3 - The promotional activity is part of a broader trend of competition among internet giants for user acquisition, which has implications for the tea beverage industry as it benefits from increased consumer engagement [6][8] - The immediate impact of the subsidy campaign was evident, with over 1 million orders placed through the app within 3 hours of launch [7] - Despite the short-term stock price declines for Alibaba due to the costs associated with the subsidy, analysts suggest that such investments are crucial for long-term user retention and market positioning [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][24]. Core Insights - The company is expected to expand its store count significantly, with a long-term target of 35,000 stores, driven by a unique "onion ring" expansion strategy and strong supply chain capabilities [2][14]. - The company is transitioning from a tea beverage leader to a multi-category pioneer, introducing new product lines such as coffee, desserts, and HPP juices, which are expected to enhance store efficiency and broaden customer demographics [3][19]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.913 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17%, with a net profit margin of 18.3% [4][24]. Summary by Sections Store Expansion Potential - The company has a long-term store expansion potential of approximately 35,375 stores, based on regional density improvements and supply-demand growth perspectives [2][14]. - The company has entered new provinces and strengthened its competitive barriers in existing regions, enhancing brand recognition and supply chain synergy [12][13]. Product and Store Model Innovation - The company has accelerated its transformation into a multi-category "beverage convenience store," effectively filling gaps in non-peak consumption periods and expanding its customer base [3][19]. - The introduction of the 6.0 store model aims to enhance brand quality and customer experience, with a focus on optimizing dining experiences and increasing in-store consumption [21][22]. Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.486 billion, 2.913 billion, and 3.693 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding adjusted EPS of 1.05, 1.22, and 1.55 RMB [5][10]. - The target price has been raised to 36.73 HKD, reflecting a 27x PE ratio for 2026, indicating a strong growth outlook despite potential short-term challenges [24][26].