2026 年 01 月 22 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2026 年第 12 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2025Q4 业绩&2026Q1 指引超预期，资本支出攀升进入加速扩产期--台积电/海外(TSM/2180) 点评报告（港 股美股） 中价格带茶饮强阿尔法，成长空间广阔--古茗/社会服务(01364/2146) 点评报告（港股美股） 2025Q4 业绩预计同环比减亏明显，2026 年新车周期可期--江淮汽车/商用车(600418/212806) 公司点评 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、2025Q4 业绩&2026Q1 指引超预期，资本支出攀升进入加速扩产期-- 台积电/海外(TSM/2180) 点评报告（港股美股） 分析师：陈梦竹 S0350521090003 联系人：邱怡瑄 S0350124070030 事件: 2026 年 1 月 15 日，台积电发布 2025 年 Q4 财报：2025Q4，公司实现收入 10,460.9 亿元新台币/337.3 亿美 元（新台币价 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][11]. Core Insights - The company, 古茗 (Gu Ming), is positioned in the tea beverage sector with significant growth potential, driven by rapid product innovation and a strong supply chain [3][7]. - The company has implemented a new franchise policy to encourage existing franchisees to open more stores, which is expected to enhance local brand visibility and operational efficiency [6][8]. - The company has a robust research and development team, with approximately 120 members, focusing on product development and supply chain optimization [7]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 134 billion, RMB 163 billion, and RMB 198 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a net profit of RMB 27.5 billion, RMB 28.4 billion, and RMB 35.4 billion [9][10]. - The expected growth rates for revenue are 101% in 2025, 76% in 2026, and 71% in 2027, while net profit growth is anticipated at 86% in 2025, 3% in 2026, and 24% in 2027 [10][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 22 in 2025 to 17 in 2027, indicating potential value appreciation [10][11]. Market Position and Strategy - As of November 2025, the company has 13,117 stores, representing a year-on-year increase of 34%, with significant presence in key provinces [9]. - The company’s strategy of regional clustering for store openings is expected to enhance consumer reach and operational management [8][9]. - The company has established a strong supply chain with direct sourcing and self-operated logistics, ensuring product quality and cost control [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the future growth potential of the company, emphasizing its existing competitive advantages and strategies for expansion [4][14] - The company is positioned to leverage its supply chain efficiencies and product innovation to enhance profitability and market share [14][57] Summary by Sections Current Competitive Advantages - The company focuses on a product strategy centered around "high quality and price" and "freshness," meeting diverse consumer needs through frequent innovation and market coverage [3][14] - It has established a robust supply chain that supports efficient raw material delivery and cost optimization, creating a competitive barrier [3][14] - The company employs a strategy of supporting franchisees with low entry barriers, enhancing profitability for partners and solidifying its presence in lower-tier markets [3][14] Future Growth Potential - The company plans to expand its store count significantly, with a target of approximately 21,000 stores in the medium term, doubling its current number [22][34] - It aims to improve store efficiency by increasing product variety and targeting different consumer segments, thereby enhancing customer frequency and overall sales [16][36] - The long-term vision includes positioning itself as a "fresh convenience store," broadening its market reach to meet diverse consumer demands [5][57] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 12.9 billion, 16.4 billion, and 20.0 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 47%, 27%, and 22% respectively [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 2.73 billion, 2.96 billion, and 3.65 billion RMB, with growth rates of 85%, 8%, and 23% respectively [7] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 22, 20, and 16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating potential for valuation improvement compared to peers [7][14]

同时，管理层对特许经营网络持积极看法，但预期对毛利率有轻微负面影响。该行将2025及2026年净开 店预测由3,100及3,300间，上调至3,300及3,500间，料2026年分店数量同比增长26%。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，将古茗(01364)2025至2027年每股盈利预测上调约1%，目标 价由35港元微升至36港元，予"增持"评级，继续列为行业首选。 报告提到，古茗管理层预期2026年有机同店交易总额(GMV)将由同比负增长5%至持平；如新产品如早 餐等渗透率加快提升，则有机会同比升5%；该行维持2026年平均同店交易总额同比高单位数下跌的预 测。 该行估计古茗2025年核心净利润将达到23亿港元人民币(下同)，同比增长51%。随着2026年净增开设 3,500间门店，加上平均售价轻微下调，预计收入将同比增长21%。由于经营杠杆效应有望抵销轻微的 毛利率压力，该行预期净利润率将大致保持稳定，2026年核心盈利将达28亿港元。 ...

每经AI快讯，古茗(01364.HK)一度涨超3%，截至发稿涨2.82%，报29.18港元，成交额6693.27万港元。 ...

消息面上，小摩发布研究报告指出，古茗管理层预期2026年有机同店交易总额(GMV)将由按年负增长 5%至持平；如新产品如早餐等渗透率加快提升，则有机会按年升5%。同时，管理层对特许经营网络持 积极看法。该行将2025及2026年净开店预测由3,100及3,300间，上调至3,300及3,500间，料2026年分店数 量按年增长26%。 该行估计，古茗2025年核心净利润将达到23亿元人民币(下同)，按年增长51%。随着2026年净增开设 3,500间门店，加上平均售价轻微下调，料收入将按年增长21%。由于经营杠杆效应有望抵销轻微的毛 利率压力，该行预期净利润率将大致保持稳定，2026年核心盈利将达28亿元。该行将古茗2025至2027年 每股盈利预测上调约1%，目标价由35港元微升至36港元，予"增持"评级，继续列为行业首选。 古茗(01364)再涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.82%，报29.18港元，成交额6693.27万港元。 ...

该行估计，古茗2025年核心净利润将达到23亿元人民币(下同)，按年增长51%。随着2026年净增开设 3,500间门店，加上平均售价轻微下调，料收入将按年增长21%。由于经营杠杆效应有望抵销轻微的毛 利率压力，该行预期净利润率将大致保持稳定，2026年核心盈利将达28亿元。该行将古茗2025至2027年 每股盈利预测上调约1%，目标价由35港元微升至36港元，予"增持"评级，继续列为行业首选。 消息面上，小摩发布研究报告指出，古茗管理层预期2026年有机同店交易总额(GMV)将由按年负增长 5%至持平；如新产品如早餐等渗透率加快提升，则有机会按年升5%。同时，管理层对特许经营网络持 积极看法。该行将2025及2026年净开店预测由3,100及3,300间，上调至3,300及3,500间，料2026年分店数 量按年增长26%。 智通财经APP获悉，古茗(01364)再涨超3%，截至发稿，涨2.82%，报29.18港元，成交额6693.27万港 元。 ...

Summary of Gu Ming's Conference Call Company Overview - Gu Ming is a rapidly growing tea beverage company established in 2010, located in Wenling, Zhejiang. The company has focused on supply chain as a core driver of its growth, deploying an automated distribution system since 2013 and initiating cold chain delivery in 2017. As of 2023, Gu Ming has over 60,000 cubic meters of cold storage capacity and more than 300 cold chain transport vehicles, establishing an industry-leading warehousing and distribution network [4][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Gu Ming achieved a revenue of 8.791 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.54%. The adjusted net profit reached 1.493 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.69%, demonstrating resilience amid a slowing industry growth backdrop. The mid-year report for 2025 indicates a profit growth rate exceeding 40%, leading the industry [2][4]. Industry Insights - The ready-to-drink tea market has become a trillion-yuan new consumption sector, evolving from a novelty to a stable consumer base with high repurchase rates, supporting continuous market expansion [5][6]. - Tea beverages have transcended basic product functionality, becoming an integral part of young people's daily lives, allowing them to express lifestyle choices and seek emotional value [6]. Market Position - Gu Ming holds a leading position in the mass price segment, with an 18% market share in 2023. Despite intensified competition from brands like Heytea adjusting their positioning, Gu Ming has shown stronger resilience, achieving superior operational results in both single-store performance and store openings [2][7]. Unique Business Strategies - Gu Ming's effective business strategies include: 1. **Supply Chain Advantage**: Significant investment in cold chain logistics, making it an industry leader [8]. 2. **Regional Store Opening Strategy**: Implementing a dense network of stores to enhance logistics efficiency and reduce costs while increasing brand recognition [8]. 3. **High-Frequency New Product Launch Strategy**: A research team comprising food enthusiasts and engineers releases approximately 100 new products each quarter to attract repeat purchases [10]. 4. **Strict Franchise Management**: Empowering front-end franchisees and enhancing back-end supply chain management to ensure uniform standards across all stores [10]. Future Outlook - Gu Ming plans to enhance same-store performance through scenario innovation and category expansion (e.g., coffee) while entering over a dozen untapped provinces. The company anticipates adding 3,000 new stores by 2026, representing a 24% growth. The scale effect is expected to further improve profit margins. Currently, the company's valuation is close to 20 times earnings, indicating strong growth potential in the medium to long term [3][9].

Group 1 - The new consumption concept stocks in the Hong Kong market are experiencing a rebound, with significant price increases observed in several companies [1] - "沪上阿姨" (02589.HK) saw its stock price rise by over 10% during trading [1] - "泡泡玛特" (09992.HK) increased by 10.2%, while "布鲁可" (00325.HK) rose by more than 7% [1] Group 2 - Other companies such as "古茗" (01364.HK) and "锅圈" (02517.HK) experienced nearly 5% increases in their stock prices [1] - "蜜雪集团" (02097.HK) also saw its stock price rise by over 4% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the stock performance of several companies, with notable increases in their share prices [1][2] Group 2 - Pop Mart (09992.HK) saw a rise of 9.07% in its stock price [1] - Gu Ming (01364.HK) experienced a 2.90% increase [1] - Guoquan (02517.HK) rose by 2.73% [1] - Blukoo (00325.HK) had a stock price increase of 2.78% [1]