Investment Rating - The industry is rated positively, with expectations of overall returns exceeding the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% in the next six months [24]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is currently at a phase of bottoming out, with a focus on the upcoming Spring Festival inventory buildup as a catalyst for growth [1][5]. - The liquor sector is experiencing a slow recovery in demand, with a focus on stabilizing expectations before discussing recovery, particularly for leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu [6][19]. - The snack sub-sector has shown strong performance, with significant growth in companies like Mingming Hen Mang, which plans to go public in Hong Kong [20][22]. Summary by Sections Sub-industry Ratings - No ratings for liquor, beverages, and food sectors [3]. - Recommended companies include: - Kweichow Moutai: Buy - Shanxi Fenjiu: Buy - Guming: Buy - Mixue Group: Increase Holding - Ximai Food: Buy - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy - Wancheng Group: Buy - Pop Mart: Buy [3]. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.57%, ranking 28th among 31 sub-industries [5][14]. - The top-performing sub-sectors were snacks, pre-processed foods, and cooked foods, with increases of 6.44%, 5.02%, and 4.25% respectively [5][14]. - The top five stocks in the sector included: - Haoxiangni (+19.59%) - Weizhi Xiang (+17.23%) - Wancheng Group (+14.32%) - Quanyuan (+13.57%) - CITIC Nia (+9.69%) [5][14]. Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor index fell by 2.80%, with a focus on the upcoming Spring Festival for potential recovery [6][19]. - Current prices for Moutai products are: - Feitian Moutai (loose bottle): 1560 RMB, up 10 RMB from last week - Pu'er Moutai: 810 RMB, unchanged from last week [6][19]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - Several companies are planning IPOs in Hong Kong, with Mingming Hen Mang aiming to raise between 32.37 billion to 33.36 billion HKD [20][22]. - The company reported a GMV of 661 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a 74.5% year-on-year increase [20][22]. - Dongpeng Beverage plans to issue 40.89 million H shares, with an expected listing date of February 3, 2026 [20][22].

古茗的竞争优势主要体现在三个方面：产品策略、供应链管理和门店布局。 首 先，古茗的产品策略具有显著优势。公司定位为"每天一杯喝不腻"，其 SKU 覆盖品类丰富，每个门店的 SKU 数量约为 45 个，形成了一个货架型平台。古 茗的产品分为果茶饮品系列、奶茶饮品系列和咖啡及其他系列。其中，果茶饮 品在 2024 年前三季度的杯量占比约 41%，奶茶饮品占比 47%，咖啡及其他 系列占比 12%。古茗在同一 SKU 下使用更丰富的新鲜原料，并且定价相对较 低，这使得其产品具有高性价比。此外，古茗推新能力强，从 2020 年到 2025 年上半年，公司平均每 3.5 天到 4.5 天推出一款新品。在 2025 年 7 月 至 10 月期间，古茗累计推出 32 款新品，大幅领先于其他品牌，如茶百道 古茗 20260123 摘要 古茗以约 45 个 SKU 构建货架型平台，产品线涵盖果茶、奶茶和咖啡等， 其中果茶和奶茶占比高达 88%，通过丰富原料和相对低价策略，实现产 品高性价比，并以平均 3.5-4.5 天推出一款新品的速度保持市场竞争力。 古茗构建了包含采购、生产、仓储和物流的完整供应链体系，通过产地 直采、战略 ...

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry in China showed signs of recovery in 2025, with a total revenue of 57,982 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.2% and accounting for 11.6% of total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In 2022, the restaurant revenue was 43,941 billion yuan, experiencing a decline of 6.3%. The revenue rebounded to 52,890 billion yuan in 2023, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 20.4%. In 2024, the revenue reached 55,718 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.3% [3]. - The overall growth of the restaurant market in 2025 exhibited a pattern of "stable growth, structural optimization, and emerging highlights," with a noticeable trend of stabilization in the latter half of the year [3][4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Innovations - The year 2025 saw active performance in new business formats and categories, with a clear trend towards health and seasonality. Beverage sectors like tea and coffee accelerated innovation and capital investment, expanding towards health and integration [4]. - Restaurant companies launched seasonal products themed around "summer coolness" and "autumn and winter warmth," with hot pot and barbecue categories continuing to gain popularity amid consumer upgrades [4]. Group 3: Capital Market Activity - 2025 marked a concentrated period for restaurant industry listings, primarily on the Hong Kong stock market. Notable new tea brands such as Gu Ming and Mi Xue Group went public, followed by several other brands like Ba Wang Cha Ji and Green Tea Group [5]. - The China Cuisine Association noted that companies actively sought innovation and diversification through "restaurant+" models, enhancing product development, holiday marketing, and cultural integration [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The World Federation of Chinese Catering recently predicted trends in the restaurant industry, emphasizing the survival of small, specialized, and aesthetically pleasing establishments. Key characteristics of new consumption include fresh, traceable ingredients with fewer processing steps [5]. - There is an increasing demand for standardization, professionalism, technical skills, and innovation in the restaurant industry, alongside a diversification of consumption structures and greater use of automated kitchen equipment [5].

Core Insights - The Chinese catering market in 2025 is characterized by "stable growth, structural optimization, and frequent highlights" amidst fluctuations [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the national catering revenue reached 57,982 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, accounting for 11.6% of total retail sales of consumer goods, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous year [2] - The catering revenue in 2022 was 43,941 billion yuan, showing a decline of 6.3%. In 2023, the revenue rebounded to 52,890 billion yuan, marking a 20.4% increase. In 2024, it further increased to 55,718 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.3% [2] - The overall growth rate of the catering market in 2025 showed a trend of high growth followed by stabilization, with the growth rate gradually leveling off in the second half of the year [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - New business formats and product categories are actively emerging in 2025, with clear trends towards health and seasonality. Beverage sectors like tea and coffee are accelerating innovation and capital investment, expanding towards health and integration [2] - Catering enterprises are launching seasonal themed products such as "summer cool" and "autumn and winter warm food," with hot pot and barbecue categories continuing to gain popularity, reflecting a keen grasp of market trends [2] - The year 2025 marks a concentrated period for listings in the Chinese catering industry, with many companies opting for listings on the Hong Kong stock exchange [3] - Companies are proactively innovating and expanding "catering+" multi-scenario approaches, enhancing product development, holiday marketing, and cultural integration [3] - Future trends in the catering industry include the survival of small, specialized, and aesthetically pleasing shops, with an emphasis on fresh, traceable ingredients and fewer processing steps [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in revenue and adjusted core net profit in 2025, driven by store openings and improved gross margins, outperforming market expectations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company forecasts a 46% increase in revenue and a 64% increase in adjusted core net profit to 2.52 billion yuan in 2025, with a 50% revenue growth and a 78% profit increase in the second half of 2025 [1] - The adjusted net profit for 2025 has been revised upward by 9% to 2.5 billion yuan, and for 2026 by 19% to 3.2 billion yuan, with a new profit forecast for 2027 set at 3.9 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Operational Highlights - The company anticipates strong same-store sales growth in the second half of 2025, supported by delivery platform subsidies and new product offerings, with a stable profit margin for franchisees [1] - The company plans to accelerate store openings, expecting a net increase of nearly 3,500 stores in 2025, bringing the total to over 13,000 [1] - In 2026, the company will focus on dine-in services and brand upgrades, with an expected same-store revenue growth of 0-5% [2] Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to enhance its brand recognition and value through the upgrade of its store image and effective product launches, maintaining a strong competitive edge despite market challenges [2] - The company has demonstrated resilience in performance, attributed to strong execution by its team and franchisees, indicating a broad long-term growth potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 9% and 19% respectively, reaching 2.52 billion and 3.2 billion yuan, and introduced a profit forecast of 3.9 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting better-than-expected store opening pace and gross margin improvements [1][2]. Group 1 - The company is expected to achieve a 64% year-on-year growth in core profit for 2025, with a projected revenue increase of 46% [2]. - The adjusted core net profit for 2025 is forecasted to reach 2.52 billion yuan, with a significant increase in the second half of 2025, driven by store openings and improved gross margins [2][3]. - The company anticipates a net increase of nearly 3,500 stores in 2025, surpassing a total of 13,000 stores, with strong same-store performance and expansion in key markets [3]. Group 2 - In 2026, the company will focus on dine-in services and brand upgrades, with expectations for same-store revenue growth of 0-5% despite the reduction in delivery subsidies [4]. - The company plans to enhance its brand recognition and value through the upgrade of its store image and the introduction of new products, aiming to solidify its competitive advantage [4]. - The company’s team and franchisees have demonstrated strong execution capabilities, indicating resilience in performance despite external challenges [4].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the adjusted net profit forecasts for Gu Ming (01364) for 2025 and 2026 by 9% and 19% to 2.5 billion and 3.2 billion HKD respectively, and introduced a profit forecast of 3.9 billion HKD for 2027, reflecting better-than-expected store opening pace and gross margin improvements [1] Group 1 - The company is expected to achieve a 64% year-on-year growth in core profit for 2025, with a projected revenue increase of 46% and adjusted core net profit reaching 2.52 billion HKD, outperforming market expectations due to better-than-expected store openings and gross margin improvements [2] - In the second half of 2025, same-store sales are anticipated to maintain strong growth, supported by delivery platform subsidies and new product offerings, with a projected net increase of nearly 3,500 stores, bringing the total to over 13,000 [3] Group 2 - In 2026, the company will focus on dine-in services and brand upgrades, with same-store revenue expected to grow by 0-5%, as the impact of delivery subsidies diminishes and the company enhances its brand recognition [4] - The company plans to upgrade its store image and maintain a rapid store opening pace, further consolidating its leading advantage in the market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has introduced a new franchise policy to encourage existing franchisees to open more stores, with incentives such as fee waivers for new signings and renovations, aiming to expand its market presence by 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Highlights - The company is focused on rapid product innovation and high cost-performance ratio, with plans to expand its product categories, particularly in coffee and breakfast items, by 2026 [1]. - As of September 30, 2024, the research and development team consists of approximately 120 members, enhancing the company's ability to quickly launch new products and respond to market trends [1]. - The company plans to introduce 52 new products in the first half of 2025, with a strong emphasis on coffee offerings, including 16 new coffee drinks and baked goods in select stores [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain Efficiency - The company has established a robust supply chain, sourcing fruits directly and operating its own factories to ensure quality control [2]. - As of mid-2025, the company operates 22 self-owned warehouses and 362 transportation vehicles, with 75% of stores located within 150 kilometers of a warehouse, ensuring efficient logistics and low delivery costs [2]. Group 3: Market Expansion Strategy - The company is implementing a regional clustering strategy, which enhances brand visibility and management efficiency by concentrating stores in specific areas [3]. - By November 2025, the company is projected to have 13,117 stores, a 34% year-on-year increase, with significant presence in key provinces [3]. - There remains substantial market expansion potential, as the company has not yet entered 11 provinces in mainland China, indicating future growth opportunities [3]. Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 134 billion, 163 billion, and 198 billion RMB, with net profits projected at 27.5 billion, 28.4 billion, and 35.4 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 86%, 3%, and 24% respectively [3]. - The company is rated with a price-to-earnings ratio of 22, 21, and 17 for the respective years, indicating strong financial performance in the beverage industry [3].

Core Viewpoint - Gu Ming (01364) has been given a "buy" rating by Guohai Securities, which highlights the company's strategy to encourage existing franchisees to open more stores, thereby enhancing brand influence and operational efficiency [1] Recent Events - Gu Ming has recently launched a new franchise policy that incentivizes existing franchisees with 1-2 stores to open additional locations by waiving a franchise fee of 25,000 yuan if they sign new agreements by May 31, 2026 [1] - Franchisees with 3 or more stores can also benefit from a 25,000 yuan reduction in renovation costs if they complete relocations or expansions by the same date [1] Product Development and Innovation - The company has a rapid product development cycle and high cost-performance ratio, with a platform-based approach to product development [2] - As of September 30, 2024, the R&D team will consist of approximately 120 members, focusing on quick product launches and capturing market trends [2] - In the first half of 2025, Gu Ming plans to introduce 52 new products, including 16 new coffee beverages, and is also venturing into baked goods [2] Supply Chain Efficiency - Gu Ming has established a robust supply chain, directly sourcing fruits and operating its own factories to ensure quality [3] - By the end of the first half of 2025, the company will have 22 self-operated warehouses and 362 transportation vehicles, with 75% of stores located within 150 kilometers of a warehouse [3] - The logistics strategy allows for efficient cold chain delivery, with distribution costs accounting for less than 1% of the total GMV [3] Regional Strategy and Market Potential - The company's regional encryption strategy is proving effective, encouraging existing franchisees to open more stores, which enhances local visibility and management efficiency [4] - As of 2025, Gu Ming is projected to be the second-largest tea beverage brand in terms of store count in China, with a total of 13,117 stores, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34% [4] - The company has significant expansion potential, with 11 provinces in mainland China yet to be penetrated, indicating ample market opportunities for future growth [4]

2026 年 01 月 22 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2026 年第 12 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2025Q4 业绩&2026Q1 指引超预期，资本支出攀升进入加速扩产期--台积电/海外(TSM/2180) 点评报告（港 股美股） 中价格带茶饮强阿尔法，成长空间广阔--古茗/社会服务(01364/2146) 点评报告（港股美股） 2025Q4 业绩预计同环比减亏明显，2026 年新车周期可期--江淮汽车/商用车(600418/212806) 公司点评 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、2025Q4 业绩&2026Q1 指引超预期，资本支出攀升进入加速扩产期-- 台积电/海外(TSM/2180) 点评报告（港股美股） 分析师：陈梦竹 S0350521090003 联系人：邱怡瑄 S0350124070030 事件: 2026 年 1 月 15 日，台积电发布 2025 年 Q4 财报：2025Q4，公司实现收入 10,460.9 亿元新台币/337.3 亿美 元（新台币价 ...