2025 年 8 月 28 日 公司研究 收入利润好于预期， 开店速度加快 ——古茗（1364.HK）2025 年半年报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：22.60 港元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -4.07 | -45.42 | / | | 绝对 | -3.44 | -35.16 | / | | 资料来源：Wind | | | | 相关研报 全品类货架型品牌，"结硬寨"践行长期主 义——古茗（1364.HK）投资价值分析报告 （2025-06-04） 要点 事件：古茗 25H1 实现营业收入 56.63 亿元，同比+41.2%；归母净利润 16.25 亿元， 同比+121.5%；经调整核心利润 11.36 亿元，同比+49.0%。 单店表现韧性强，各项经营指标均同比增长。25H1 销售商品及设备/加盟管理服务/ 直营门店销售分别实现营收 44.96/11.59/0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5][12] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 5.7 billion for 1H25, representing a year-on-year growth of 41%, and an adjusted core profit of RMB 1.1 billion, up 49% year-on-year, with an improved adjusted core profit margin of 20.1% [5][8] - The target price has been raised from HK$ 21.2 to HK$ 28, indicating a potential upside of 24% [5][8] - The company has seen significant growth in store numbers and same-store sales, with a net addition of 1,265 stores in 1H25, bringing the total to 11,179, and a same-store sales growth exceeding 20% in July and August [7][9][10] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for the next few years are as follows: - 2023: RMB 7,676 million - 2024: RMB 8,791 million - 2025E: RMB 12,152 million - 2026E: RMB 13,527 million - 2027E: RMB 15,725 million - Adjusted core profit forecasts are: - 2023: RMB 1,459 million - 2024: RMB 1,542 million - 2025E: RMB 2,232 million - 2026E: RMB 2,450 million - 2027E: RMB 2,854 million - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been adjusted upward for the coming years [6][15] Store Expansion and Performance - The company has focused on expanding its presence in lower-tier cities, with 81% of stores located in tier-2 and below cities, and 43% in townships [7][9] - The average daily GMV per store increased by 21% year-on-year to approximately RMB 7,600 [10] - The coffee business has also progressed, with over 8,000 stores equipped with coffee machines and new coffee products launched [11] Conclusion - The report expresses confidence in the company's supply chain efficiency, product innovation capabilities, and strong potential for store openings, maintaining a positive outlook on its growth trajectory [12]

Group 1: Automotive Industry Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant shift towards intelligent driving technologies, with companies like HUAWEI and Horizon leading the way in advanced driver assistance systems [13][14]. - The penetration rate of L2 and above autonomous driving features in passenger vehicles reached 29.7% as of June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13 percentage points [14]. - Investment recommendations include companies such as Xpeng Motors, Leap Motor, and Geely for complete vehicles, and suppliers like Suoteng Technology and Hesai Technology for components [15]. Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - The pharmaceutical sector showed weaker performance compared to the overall market, with the biopharmaceutical segment rising only 1.05% [16]. - The World Lung Cancer Conference (WCLC) in September 2025 will showcase innovative research from Chinese pharmaceutical companies, highlighting the growing competitiveness of domestic products [16][17]. - Investment focus is recommended on companies presenting at major conferences like ESMO and WCLC, particularly those with promising clinical data [17]. Group 3: Mining and Metals Performance - Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit for H1 2025 increased by 60% to CNY 8.67 billion, driven by rising copper and cobalt prices alongside increased production [18][19]. - Zijin Mining reported a 54.41% year-on-year increase in net profit for H1 2025, attributed to a significant rise in gold production and prices [22][23]. - Cloud Aluminum's net profit for H1 2025 grew by 10%, with a strong performance in aluminum production and a proposed cash dividend of CNY 3.2 per share [20][21]. Group 4: Real Estate and Property Management - Poly Property's revenue for H1 2025 reached CNY 8.4 billion, with a net profit increase of 5%, indicating steady growth in property management services [31][32]. - Greentown China reported a significant decline in net profit by 89.7% for H1 2025, primarily due to uneven revenue recognition and asset impairment provisions [33][34]. - The company maintained a strong sales performance, with total sales area down only 10% compared to the industry average, reflecting resilience in a challenging market [34].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of the recent food delivery competition initiated by major internet platforms on the new tea beverage brand, Gu Ming, is a focal point of investor interest [2] Company Summary - Gu Ming's CEO, Wang Yunan, stated that the long-term effects of the delivery subsidy war are detrimental to franchise operations and the industry's sustainable development [2] - The "zero purchase" activity launched by delivery platforms in July had a limited impact on Gu Ming, with each order affected by approximately 4-5 yuan [2] - Gu Ming reported that the competition from delivery platforms began in the second quarter, with minimal effects on the first quarter's performance [2] - Since August, the intensity of subsidy activities from delivery platforms has decreased [2] Industry Summary - The ongoing competition among food delivery platforms is expected to lead to a return to normal operational rhythms for brands once subsidies taper off [2] - Brands with lower average order values benefited more from the recent promotional activities [2]

8月27日晚间，古茗（01364.HK）召开2025年上半年业绩说明会。今年夏季由淘宝、美团、京东三家互 联网巨头掀起的外卖大战对新茶饮品牌的影响，成为投资者关注的焦点。 古茗披露，外卖平台的竞争主要从第二季度开始，第一季度没有受到影响；7月开始活动力度加大，总 体来说对上半年的业绩影响有限。8月以来，外卖平台的活动补贴力度已有所下降。（智通财经记者 卢 奕贝） 古茗创始人兼首席执行官王云安在业绩会上表示，长期来看，外卖补贴大战对于加盟门店经营并非好 事，也不利于行业长期发展，补贴退潮后，品牌仍需要回归正常的经营节奏当中。 今年7月，外卖平台们开展"零元购"活动，由于该活动仅每周六进行，对古茗而言每单的影响约4—5 元。王云安表示，客单价更低的品牌，在此活动中收益更多。 ...

Core Insights - Gu Ming (01364.HK) reported impressive financial results for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 5.663 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%, and a profit of 1.626 billion yuan, up 119.8% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company's profit for the entire year of 2024 was 1.493 billion yuan, while the profit for the first half of 2025 has already exceeded the total for 2024 [1][3] - The adjusted profit for the first half of 2025, excluding a one-time financial gain, was 1.086 billion yuan, reflecting a 42.4% year-on-year growth [3] - Gross profit for the first half of 2025 increased by 41.0% to 1.786 billion yuan, with a stable gross margin of 31.5% [3] Revenue Structure - The primary revenue source for the first half of 2025 was from the sale of goods and equipment, contributing 4.496 billion yuan, a 41.8% increase, accounting for 79.4% of total revenue [3] - Franchise management service revenue reached 1.159 billion yuan, growing by 39.0% [3] Store Expansion and Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Gu Ming had a total of 11,179 stores, a 17.48% increase from 9,516 stores in 2024 [1][6] - The average GMV per store for the first half of 2025 was 1.3705 million yuan, a 20.6% increase, with daily average GMV rising from 6,200 yuan to 7,600 yuan [6] - The number of daily cups sold per store increased from 374 to 439, indicating strong consumer demand [6] Market Strategy - The company has focused on expanding its presence in lower-tier cities, with 81% of its stores located in second-tier and below cities, and 43% in townships [6] - Gu Ming's membership base has grown to 178 million registered users, with approximately 50 million active members quarterly, enhancing its private traffic pool [7] Future Outlook - The company plans to utilize the remaining 1.777 billion yuan from its global offering for digital upgrades, supply chain optimization, and brand building [7] - Gu Ming aims to continue its four core strategies: expanding the store network, enhancing technology for operational efficiency, increasing product development, and strengthening brand connections with consumers [7]

研究报告 Research Report 28 Aug 2025 古茗 Guming Holdings (1364 HK) 1H 业绩表现亮眼，未来增长仍具内外动能 1H Performance Outstanding, Internal and External Drivers Still Supporting Future Growth [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus 展望：预计 2H 外卖仍能带来一定增量，咖啡持续推广和早餐产品 将扩充消费场景，带来增量人群，预计单店日销仍有提升潜力。 估值预测：考虑到公司门店拓展提速，单店高增，我们上调 25-27 年收入各 15%/18%/31%至各 124/152/188 亿元，同比各增长 41%/ 22%/24%；上调经调净利各 22%/27%/46%至各 23.0/27.9/34.9 亿 元，同比各增长 49%/21%/25%，经调净利率各 18.5%/18.4%/ 18.5%。我们维持公司 2025 年 25 倍 PE 估值，对应合理目标市值 625 亿港元，上调目标价 14%至 27.7 港元（对应汇率为 HKD/ ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint highlights the unprecedented removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for more "Trump-aligned" appointees, which could lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in the future [1] - Following the removal announcement, market reactions included rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices, while the U.S. dollar index declined, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards risk assets [1] Fixed Income - The report indicates a cautious approach in the convertible bond market, suggesting a reduction in exposure to high-priced targets while increasing allocations to ETFs to balance risks [2][3] - The 10-year government bond yield increased from 1.745% to 1.785%, reflecting market adjustments to macroeconomic conditions [2] Industry Insights - New Lai Ying Material (300260) reported improved Q2 performance, benefiting from growth in the semiconductor and liquid cooling sectors, with a focus on domestic substitution and an optimized customer structure [5][6] - Li Yuan Heng (688499) achieved profitability with a robust order backlog in solid-state battery equipment, indicating a strong operational cash flow and successful delivery to major clients [7] - Jin Zai Food (003000) is experiencing a Q2 adjustment period, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a mismatch between internal expansion strategies and external market conditions [8][9] - Anpei Long (301413) reported steady growth in its temperature and pressure sensor business while investing in humanoid robotics, adjusting profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [10] - Xinde New Materials (301349) is seeing significant growth in fast-charging products, with profit forecasts adjusted upwards due to improved margins [11] - The report on China National Railway (601766) indicates strong growth in H1 2025, driven by recovery in railway fixed asset investments [18] - The report on China Duty Free Group (601888) highlights a narrowing revenue decline in Q2 2025, with a focus on expanding city store operations to boost sales [31] - Yun Aluminum (000807) reported a 17.98% increase in revenue for H1 2025, with a focus on maintaining high profit margins amid fluctuating aluminum prices [32][33]

每经记者｜王紫薇 每经编辑｜董兴生 8月26日，新茶饮品牌古茗（01364.HK）交出了上市后的首份中期成绩单。财报显示，2025年上半年，公司收入达56.63亿元，同比增长41.2%；净利润为 16.25亿元，同比大增121.5%，甚至超过去年全年水平（14.79亿元）；基本每股净收益为0.72元，同比提升84.6%。 《每日经济新闻》记者发现，古茗的这份"炸裂"成绩单得益于三条"增长链"：一是大举扩张门店网络，二是单店效率提升，三是供应链与数字化沉淀。 而行业人士向记者分析，这三条互相驱动的"增长链"是古茗实现增长的主要原因。另一方面，今年下半年的行业竞争加剧，外卖平台补贴战升级、加盟商回 报周期拉长等风险因素，可能对古茗的增长节奏构成挑战。 图片来源：每经记者 孔泽思 摄 半年净利润超去年全年，古茗也有了规模效应 在瑞幸门店达到1万家时，其品牌规模效应开始显现。在此次报告期内，古茗门店数量也超过了1万家，并且同样展现出规模效应的威力。 所谓规模效应，是指品牌在门店数量达到一定程度后，品牌逐渐积累了更强的获客优势，从而可以提高营收；而广泛密集的门店形成的门店网络，还将不断 摊薄供应链的运营成本，让企业进入 ...

公司管理层在业绩会上透露，算上已签约、在装修还未正式开业的店，古茗今年到目前将会有三千多家 门店的增长，已完成公司内部全年的门店增长指引，但"这个增长指引定的比较保守"。 当下新茶饮市场竞争激烈，不少品牌积极出海寻求新增长，蜜雪冰城已在海外开出超4700家门店，沪上 阿姨、茶百道、霸王茶姬等品牌今年都在海外市场取得显著进展；茉莉奶白、爷爷不泡茶等新晋品牌也 已将门店开到了海外。 古茗是目前唯一一家还未走出中国内地的颇具规模的新茶饮品牌。 业绩会上，有分析师就出海话题询问管理层。古茗创始人王云安认为，"出海是机会也是挑战，但机会 不像报道中说的那么可观。"他补充道，餐饮行业走向海外会遇到很多与国内不同的情况，例如运输要 求、不同国家的人文情怀等。 不过，古茗在中期财报中指出，未来将评估境外市场的机遇。公司管理层也在业绩会上表态，古茗未来 会出海，且出海的筹备动作已经开始了，但不会是近期，内部将在下周开会讨论出海议题。 8月27日晚间，古茗（01364.HK）召开2025年上半年业绩说明会。 "如果中国都开满了，没地方开了，那只能说出海的空间更大。"古茗认为，公司目前优先级仍在国内市 场的拓展，出海的泡沫可能大于 ...