Investment Rating - The report suggests a stable configuration value for the liquor sector, indicating a defensive characteristic despite being in a bottoming phase [1][11]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently experiencing a downtrend in market sentiment, similar to the period from late 2014 to 2015, with a slight decline in overall sales due to weak demand [1][10]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased by approximately 50 yuan week-on-week, with the original box price falling below 2200 yuan, indicating a soft demand in the off-season [1][10]. - The report anticipates that the price of Feitian Moutai will fluctuate between 2100 and 2200 yuan before the upcoming peak seasons of Mid-Autumn and National Day, while monitoring the recovery of business demand [1][11]. - Despite the price drop, market sentiment towards the liquor sector remains stable, with expectations for a smooth performance in Q1 2025 for most liquor companies [1][11]. - The report highlights potential offensive opportunities in the liquor sector due to ongoing policy implementations that may bolster economic recovery expectations [2][11]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is in a downtrend but shows signs of stabilization, with a focus on high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expected to benefit from resilient consumer demand [2][11]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-end liquor with solid pricing and market positioning, as well as cyclical stocks with potential for growth [2][11]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is entering a peak season, with an upward turning point in market sentiment. The report expresses optimism for improved performance in 2025, particularly for companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage [3][12]. Snacks - The snack industry continues to thrive due to the release of new channels and product categories, with companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi expected to perform well [3][13]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant chain sector is stabilizing at a low point, with strong growth in customized meal preparation services benefiting from the trend towards standardized dishes in chain restaurants [3][4][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 6.54 billion and 739.43 million respectively in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.24% and a decline of 13.28% [7] - Third-party sales continue to grow, driven by products like crayfish, while the overall average price has slightly decreased due to the introduction of high-cost performance products [7] - The company is expected to maintain low double-digit growth in third-party revenue in 2025, with potential improvement in related party performance [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6.54 billion in 2024 to 8.64 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.24%, 10.76%, 9.96%, and 8.46% respectively [1][8] - Net profit is forecasted to decline to 739.43 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to 884.67 million in 2025 and 1,087.89 million in 2027 [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 0.71 in 2024, increasing to 1.05 by 2027 [1][8] Revenue Breakdown - Third-party revenue is expected to grow by 9% in the second half of 2024, with specific product categories showing varied performance [7] - Related party revenue is projected to decline by 12.35% in the second half of 2024, with significant drops in certain product categories [7] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its partner assessment mechanisms and accelerating product launches, with over 50 new products expected in 2024 [7] - The company is focusing on refining channel management and expanding e-commerce and overseas markets, particularly with the new factory in Thailand [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 6.54 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 739 million RMB, a decrease of 13.3% year-on-year, which is below expectations due to factors such as reduced procurement prices from related parties and increased marketing expenses [1][4] - The company has declared a final dividend of 383 million RMB, resulting in an annual payout ratio of approximately 95% [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product competitiveness through a "product project system" and is expected to benefit from the gradual release of production capacity in Southeast Asia, which may improve overseas supply chain efficiency and increase overseas revenue [1][3] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company expects revenue from related parties to be 19.74 billion RMB, a decrease of 2%, while revenue from third parties is projected to be 43.82 billion RMB, an increase of 8% [2] - The revenue from hot pot base, compound seasoning, and convenient fast food products is expected to be 4.085 billion RMB, 787 million RMB, and 1.605 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.2%, +26.6%, and +15.7% [3] - The gross profit margins for these products are projected to be 33.9%, 33.8%, and 24.7% respectively, with slight changes compared to the previous year [3] Future Projections - The company anticipates a gradual increase in overseas revenue, which currently accounts for less than 10% of total revenue, as the Southeast Asia supply center becomes operational [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is set at 0.82 RMB, with a projected increase to 1.04 RMB by 2027 [4][6] - The target price for the company's stock is set at 17.83 HKD, reflecting a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times for 2025 [4][8]

第三方稳健增长，股东回报可观 消费品/食品饮料 24 年公司营收/归母净利润分别实现 65.4/7.4 亿，同比 +6.4%/-13.3%，公司 收入端第三方业务实现反弹带动增长，但关联方业务受需求及价格影响对业绩 有所拖累。利润端受公司促销加大、关联方价格调整等因素影响下滑。H2 公司 收入/归母净利润分别实现 36.1/4.3 亿，同比+2.3%/-12.9%。25 年看，第三方 业务随着渠道精耕及新品研发等战略落地，有望保持增长势头，关联方业务仍 有压力期待改善。此外，公司加大对于 B 端及海外市场的拓展力度，寻求增量 贡献。同时，公司短期无重大资本开支，分红率有望维持高位，股东回报可观。 当前行业格局已逐步稳定，虽然复苏期竞争仍激烈，但公司品牌优势领先，产 品及渠道不断完善，未来渗透市场提升份额仍有空间。我们给予 25-27 年 EPS 预期为 0.78、0.86、0.96 元，对应 25 年估值 17X，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：14.36 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1037 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 1037 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 6.54 billion and 739.43 million RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.24% and a decline of 13.28% respectively [7] - Third-party sales continue to grow, driven by products like crayfish, while the overall average price has slightly decreased due to the introduction of high-cost performance products [7] - The company is expected to maintain low double-digit growth in third-party revenue in 2025, with potential improvement in related party performance [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6.54 billion RMB in 2024 to 8.64 billion RMB in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.24%, 10.76%, 9.96%, and 8.46% respectively [1][8] - Net profit is forecasted to decline to 739.43 million RMB in 2024, followed by a recovery to 1.09 billion RMB by 2027, with growth rates of -13.28%, 19.64%, 11.74%, and 10.05% respectively [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 0.71 RMB in 2024, increasing to 1.05 RMB by 2027 [1][8] - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 18.23x in 2024, decreasing to 12.39x by 2027 [1][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.54 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase, while the net profit decreased by 13% to 739 million yuan [6]. - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 89%, distributing a total of 657 million yuan in dividends for 2024 [6]. - Supply chain efficiency improvements have led to a stable gross margin, which decreased slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 31.28% [7]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories and penetrating lower-tier markets, which is expected to drive future growth [9][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 65.40 billion yuan, with a net profit of 7.39 billion yuan, marking a 6% increase in revenue but a 13% decrease in net profit [6]. - The second half of 2024 saw revenue of 36.05 billion yuan, with a 2% year-on-year increase [6]. Supply Chain and Cost Management - The gross margin remained relatively stable due to supply chain efficiency improvements, despite a slight decrease [7]. - Sales expense ratio increased by 2 percentage points to 11.80%, attributed to increased marketing efforts and rising shipping costs [7]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from related parties decreased by 2% to 19.74 billion yuan, with specific categories showing varied performance: hot pot seasonings down 8%, compound seasonings up 127%, and convenient fast food up 88% [8]. - Third-party revenue increased by 10% to 45.66 billion yuan, driven by new product development and refined channel strategies [9]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.79 yuan in 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 65.40 billion yuan in 2024 to 88.66 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [14].

颐海国际 20250326 摘要 Q&A 颐海国际在 2024 年度的业绩表现如何？主要业务板块的情况如何？ 颐海国际 2024 年全年收入为 65.4 亿元人民币，同比增长 6.4%；毛利为 20.46 亿元人民币，同比增长 5.4%；集团净利润为 7.99 亿元，同比下降 11.9%；归属 母公司的净利润为 7.39 亿元，同比下降 13.3%，每股盈利 76 点 2 分。公司第 三方全年收入增长 10.4%至 45.66 亿元，关联方收入为 19.74 亿元，同比下降 1.8%。集团整体毛利率同比下降 0.3 个百分点至 31.3%，其中第三方毛利率略 有增长 0.2%至 38.6%，关联方毛利率同比下降 3 个百分点至 14%。 方便食品板 • 颐海国际 2024 年收入 65.4 亿元，同比增长 6.4%，但净利润同比下降 11.9%至 7.99 亿元，主要受销售费用增长（30%）及所得税开支增加影响。 第三方收入增长 10.4%，关联方收入下降 1.8%。 • 方便食品板块自热火锅系列销售收入与 2020 年基本持平，低价位产品销量 上升但传统大单品下滑。火锅底料中，牛油品类面临激烈竞争，复合调味 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 739 million for 2024, a decrease of 13.28% year-on-year [1] - Revenue reached approximately RMB 6.54 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [1] - Gross profit was around RMB 2.046 billion, which is a 5.4% increase compared to the previous year [1] Revenue Breakdown - The group achieved revenue of RMB 4.566 billion from third-party businesses, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.4%, driven by refined channel management and improved product development mechanisms [1] - In the hot pot base category, the beef tallow hot pot base generated RMB 584 million in revenue, up 12.1%, while the tomato hot pot base reached RMB 424.3 million, increasing by 8.6% [2] - The compound seasoning category saw the crawfish seasoning perform exceptionally well, with revenue of RMB 222.8 million, a growth of 31.5% [2] - Instant food products, particularly the spicy sour noodles, were popular among consumers, generating RMB 135.6 million in revenue, a significant increase of 56.7% [2] Channel Management - The company emphasizes refined and standardized management strategies in channel construction, adapting to market changes through in-depth market research and regional layout [3] - E-commerce channels achieved revenue of RMB 398.7 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.9% [3] - The company implements differentiated management based on channel and regional characteristics, optimizing the "partner" assessment system with an incentive mechanism focused on "incremental" growth [3]

Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 reached RMB 6,539.6 million, an increase of 6.4% compared to RMB 6,147.6 million in 2023[6] - Gross profit for 2024 was RMB 2,045.8 million, up 5.4% from RMB 1,941.3 million in 2023[6] - Net profit for 2024 decreased by 11.9% to RMB 799.5 million, down from RMB 907.0 million in 2023[6] - Total comprehensive income for 2024 was RMB 804.6 million, with the portion attributable to owners of the company at RMB 744.5 million, a decrease of 12.7% from RMB 853.0 million in 2023[6] - Basic and diluted earnings per share for 2024 were RMB 0.762[6] - Total expenses for the year ended December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 5,541,986 thousand, up from RMB 5,071,127 thousand in 2023, reflecting an increase of 9.3%[33] - Income tax expense for 2024 was RMB 378,636 thousand, compared to RMB 357,089 thousand in 2023, marking an increase of 6.0%[36] - Basic earnings per share decreased to 76.2 cents in 2024 from 87.5 cents in 2023, a decline of 12.6%[44] - The company reported a total of RMB 110,760 thousand in other income and gains for 2024, down from RMB 118,375 thousand in 2023, a decrease of 6.8%[34] - Employee benefits expenses rose to RMB 673,481 thousand in 2024, compared to RMB 581,512 thousand in 2023, an increase of 15.8%[33] - The company recorded a government subsidy of RMB 88,103 thousand in 2024, slightly down from RMB 88,929 thousand in 2023, a decrease of 0.9%[34] Assets and Liabilities - Non-current assets totaled RMB 2,820.4 million in 2024, a slight decrease from RMB 2,867.0 million in 2023[7] - Current assets decreased to RMB 2,978.9 million in 2024 from RMB 3,187.4 million in 2023[7] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 1,066.1 million in 2024 from RMB 965.0 million in 2023[8] - The company reported a decrease in retained earnings to RMB 4,242.9 million in 2024 from RMB 4,500.1 million in 2023[7] - The company’s total assets as of December 31, 2024, were RMB 166,007,000, down from RMB 181,587,000 in 2023, reflecting a decrease of about 8.6%[27] - Cash and cash equivalents as of December 31, 2024, were approximately RMB 1,881.9 million, down from RMB 2,309.4 million in 2023[86] - The debt-to-asset ratio increased to 18.4% from 15.9% in 2023, with no bank borrowings reported[87] - As of December 31, 2024, the company's debt-to-equity ratio is 2.0%, up from 1.7% in 2023[96] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from hot pot seasoning for related parties was RMB 1,753,229,000 in 2024, down from RMB 1,899,247,000 in 2023, a decrease of about 7.7%[25] - Revenue from compound seasoning for third parties increased to RMB 721,307,000 in 2024 from RMB 592,591,000 in 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 21.7%[25] - Revenue from third-party business increased by 10.4% year-on-year to RMB 4,565.7 million, driven by refined channel management and improved product development mechanisms[50] - The company achieved significant growth in specific product categories, with revenue from beef hotpot base rising by 12.1% to RMB 584.0 million and spicy sour noodles increasing by 56.7% to RMB 135.6 million[50] - Revenue from hot pot seasoning products decreased slightly by 0.2% to RMB 4,085.4 million, accounting for 62.5% of total revenue in 2024[67] - Revenue from compound seasoning products increased by 26.6% to RMB 786.6 million, representing 12.0% of total revenue in 2024[69] - Revenue from convenient food products rose by 15.7% to RMB 1,604.7 million, making up 24.5% of total revenue in 2024[71] - Revenue from related party customers decreased by 1.8% to RMB 1,973.9 million, while revenue from distributors increased by 6.4% to RMB 3,983.4 million[73] Operational Insights - The company is engaged in the production and sale of hot pot condiments, compound seasonings, and instant food products in China and several overseas markets[14] - The company emphasizes supply chain optimization and aims to enhance production efficiency and product quality through technological innovation[51] - The company is expanding its market presence by exploring emerging channels while consolidating traditional ones, aiming to increase market penetration and customer satisfaction[55] - The company is committed to improving its smart manufacturing capabilities and increasing the proportion of self-produced products to enhance global supply chain stability[51] - The company is actively exploring the halal and Middle Eastern markets to enhance product acceptance and coverage[59] - The company plans to focus on product R&D, overseas expansion, and channel development as key strategies for 2025[102] - The company aims to enhance product competitiveness by tailoring offerings to meet diverse regional and channel needs[102] - The company will explore overseas markets by understanding local taste preferences and expanding its presence in mainstream supermarkets and B-end markets[103] - The company intends to improve operational efficiency through channel segmentation and standardized management[104] Dividends and Shareholder Information - For the fiscal year 2024, the company declared an interim dividend of RMB 0.2825 per share, totaling RMB 273.5 million, compared to no dividend in 2023[48] - The proposed final dividend for 2024 is RMB 0.395 per share, with a total of RMB 383.2 million, down from RMB 719.2 million in 2023, which was RMB 0.74 per share[48] - The board proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.4283 per share for the year ending December 31, 2024, subject to shareholder approval on May 22, 2025[117] - The final dividend is equivalent to RMB 0.3950 per share, based on the average exchange rate prior to the board meeting on March 25, 2025[117] - The company will suspend share transfer registration from May 19 to May 22, 2025, to determine shareholder eligibility for the annual general meeting[118] - A second suspension of share transfer registration will occur from May 28 to May 29, 2025, to determine eligibility for the final dividend[119] - The annual report for the year ending December 31, 2024, will include all information required by listing rules and will be sent to shareholders upon request[121] - The company expressed gratitude to shareholders, management, employees, business partners, and customers for their support and contributions[122]

Group 1 - The compound seasoning industry is expected to reach a revenue of 134.1 billion CNY in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2019 to 2024 [16][21][29] - The hot pot base market is projected to maintain a growth rate of over 5% in the next five years, with a market size of approximately 600 billion CNY [33][35] - The Chinese compound seasoning sector is still in its growth phase, with significant opportunities for new product development, particularly in categories like sauerkraut fish and crayfish seasoning [41][43] Group 2 - In February, the food and beverage sector outperformed the market by 2.2 percentage points, with sub-sectors like liquor showing strong performance [12][20] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at historical lows, with the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio at the 12th percentile and the price-to-book (PB) ratio at the 23rd percentile since 2010 [12][24] - The net inflow of southbound funds in February reached 152.8 billion HKD, indicating strong interest in stocks like Qingdao Beer and COFCO Joycome [12][14] Group 3 - The liquor market is experiencing a recovery, with companies controlling inventory and maintaining prices, as seen with the price of Moutai at 2,210 CNY per bottle [17][32] - The sales of consumer goods improved in February, particularly in beer, dairy products, and frozen foods, while raw material prices showed mixed trends [18][19] - The overall retail sales in January and February 2025 are expected to grow by 4.0% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [28][31] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include key players in the liquor sector such as Luzhou Laojiao, Jinshiyuan, and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as consumer goods companies like Yanjing Beer and Tianwei Foods [10][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for new product launches in the compound seasoning market, driven by changing consumer preferences and the expansion of retail channels like Sam's Club [41][43] - The macroeconomic environment is improving, which is expected to boost consumer confidence and spending, further supporting the growth of the food and beverage sector [29][31]