Group 1 - A company in Liuzhou, Guangxi, focuses on the research and production of new energy materials, showing strong development momentum and was recognized as a "Gazelle Enterprise" in 2023 [1] - The company faced a shortage of funds for raw material procurement, and Postal Savings Bank of Guangxi provided a credit loan of 15 million yuan through its "Science and Technology Innovation Loan" product [1] - As of the end of 2024, Postal Savings Bank has supported nearly 200 "Gazelle Enterprises" in Guangxi with a total loan amount of 4.163 billion yuan, contributing to high-quality local economic development [1] Group 2 - "Gazelle Enterprises" are characterized by high growth, strong innovation capabilities, and significant development potential, playing a crucial role in job creation and regional economic competitiveness [2] - Postal Savings Bank has launched a series of innovative measures to meet the financial needs of "Gazelle Enterprises," including a marketing initiative targeting 6,284 enterprises in 116 national and regional industrial parks [2] Group 3 - A high-tech company in Daxin County, specializing in lithium-ion battery research and manufacturing, received 5 million yuan in unsecured financing from Postal Savings Bank to address its raw material procurement funding shortage [3] - After receiving funding, the company increased R&D investment, optimized production processes, and gradually expanded its market share [3] - Postal Savings Bank has completed 100% visits to regional parks and developed 869 enterprises within these parks, achieving a development rate of 13.8% [3] Group 4 - The number of "Gazelle Enterprises" in a region reflects its innovation capability and development speed, with Postal Savings Bank actively collaborating with government departments to support these enterprises [4] - The bank has updated the list of technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, exceeding 4,000, and provides tailored financial services based on this list [4] - A leading paper manufacturing enterprise in Laibin City, recognized as a "Gazelle Enterprise," has created 800 jobs and has an annual production capacity of 200,000 tons of raw paper [4] Group 5 - Postal Savings Bank offers a comprehensive range of financial services tailored to the diverse needs of "Gazelle Enterprises" at different development stages [6] - The bank launched the "Five Enhancements Action Plan" for technology finance services in May 2024, aiming to improve service levels [6] - By the end of 2024, the bank has provided loans to 545 technology enterprises, with a loan balance of 13.557 billion yuan and a growth rate of 42.9% [6] Group 6 - A company in Nanning, recognized as a pilot for "Integration of Informatization and Industrialization," has seen its revenue grow from 50 million yuan in 2015 to over 200 million yuan in 2025, supported by Postal Savings Bank [7][8] - The bank initially provided "Assurance Loans" and later transitioned to credit loans as the company's strength increased [7]

Group 1: Industry Development - The liquor industry in Luzhou, Sichuan Province is expanding from planting and brewing to a full industry chain model integrating culture and tourism [1] - Postal Savings Bank of Luzhou is actively engaging in local industry layout, using "industrial chain finance" to address financing challenges for growers, liquor companies, and distributors [1] Group 2: Raw Material Procurement Challenges - The core raw material for sauce liquor production, Hongyingzi glutinous sorghum, faces procurement challenges due to seasonal cash flow pressures for suppliers [2] - A supplier experienced a 15% increase in order volume for the 2024 autumn harvest but faced a funding gap of several million yuan, highlighting the urgency of timely financing [2] - Postal Savings Bank provided a quick loan of 1 million yuan to the supplier, enabling successful procurement within a critical timeframe [2] Group 3: Supporting Liquor Enterprises' Capacity Upgrades - A modern project at Sichuan Provincial Liquor Group's Yongle Sauce Liquor Base, with a total investment of 3.2 billion yuan, is under construction to enhance production capacity [3] - Postal Savings Bank customized financing solutions for this project, facilitating a fixed asset loan of 330 million yuan, with 267 million yuan disbursed to date [3] - The project is expected to create 415 new jobs and expand surrounding sorghum planting bases by 30,000 acres [3] Group 4: Addressing Distributor Financing Issues - Traditional financing models have left downstream distributors of Luzhou Laojiao struggling with seasonal inventory funding shortages due to lack of collateral [4] - Postal Savings Bank launched "Industrial e-loan," linking directly with Luzhou Laojiao's platform to provide credit based on real trade orders, enabling rapid loan disbursement [4] - By March 2023, the bank had provided 130 million yuan in financing to over 400 distributors, resulting in a 10% year-on-year increase in procurement within the industry chain [4]

Core Viewpoint - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) Jiangxi Jishui Branch is actively implementing the "Thousand Enterprises and Ten Thousand Households Visit" initiative to enhance financial services for small and micro enterprises, thereby supporting high-quality regional economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Initiative Implementation - The PSBC Jishui Branch has established a dedicated task force to ensure the orderly progress of the "Thousand Enterprises and Ten Thousand Households Visit" initiative, with a detailed visitation plan and clear responsibilities [1]. - The task force has visited 46 enterprises, achieving financing intentions with 8 of them and disbursing loans totaling 55.6 million yuan across various sectors, including manufacturing, services, and technology [1]. Group 2: Financial Support and Products - During the visits, the PSBC Jishui Branch identified the needs of local enterprises, such as Hongshan Shipping Co., which required funding for raw materials and equipment upgrades due to rapid business growth [1]. - The bank facilitated a loan of 1.2 million yuan to Hongshan Shipping Co. through its "Mortgage e-loan" product, which features high limits, low interest rates, and quick approval, completing the process in just 2 working days [1]. Group 3: Future Plans - The PSBC Jishui Branch plans to continue advancing the "Thousand Enterprises and Ten Thousand Households Visit" initiative, innovating financial products and service models to provide better, more efficient financial services to support the local economy [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy-A" with a target price of 6.31 CNY over the next six months [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the bank's revenue in Q1 2025 decreased by 0.07% year-on-year, while the pre-provision profit grew by 6.20%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 2.62% year-on-year. The main drivers for performance were the expansion of interest-earning assets and cost reduction, while narrowing net interest margins and increased provisioning negatively impacted growth [1][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, Postal Savings Bank's total assets grew by 8.31% year-on-year, with total loans increasing by 9.78% and financial investments by 9.45%. The bank added 604.5 billion CNY in total assets and 443 billion CNY in loans during the quarter [1]. - The bank's net interest margin for Q1 2025 was measured at 1.71%, down 21 basis points year-on-year and 10 basis points quarter-on-quarter, but still remains competitive within the industry [4][9]. - Non-interest income increased by 14.83% year-on-year, with net fees growing by 8.76% and investment income rising by 21.70% [10]. Loan Growth - Corporate loans saw a significant increase of 15.17% year-on-year, with a quarterly addition of 362 billion CNY, leading among major banks [2]. - Retail loans grew by 4.27% year-on-year, with a quarterly addition of 678 billion CNY, although this was a decrease compared to previous quarters [2]. Deposit Growth - Total deposits increased by 9.22% year-on-year, with corporate and retail deposits growing by 20.46% and 7.94% respectively. The bank focused on low-cost self-operated deposits, adding 141.7 billion CNY in corporate deposits during the quarter [3]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.91% at the end of Q1 2025, remaining stable. The provision coverage ratio was 266.13%, indicating a solid buffer against potential loan losses [10][11]. Future Outlook - The bank plans to enhance support for key sectors such as new productivity and inclusive small and micro enterprises, while also increasing consumer loan offerings in response to policy opportunities. The cost advantage on the liability side, combined with adjustments in agency fee rates, is expected to support performance [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Postal Savings Bank with a target price of 7.17 CNY per share, reflecting a 20% valuation premium compared to comparable companies [3][7]. Core Views - The report highlights an optimization in the cost-to-income ratio and a rapid growth in corporate business, with a slight decline in revenue growth but a notable increase in non-interest income [2][11]. - The bank's total assets and loan growth remain stable, with corporate loans showing a significant increase, indicating a balanced asset-liability structure [11]. - Asset quality is generally stable, although there is a slight increase in non-performing loans and a decrease in the provision coverage ratio, suggesting ongoing challenges in the retail sector [11]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the bank's operating income is projected at 342,507 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 86,270 million CNY, also reflecting a 1.2% increase [5][12]. - The forecast for net profit growth for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.2%, 1.3%, and 1.7%, respectively, with corresponding BVPS of 8.96, 9.57, and 10.18 CNY [3][5]. - The bank's cost-to-income ratio is expected to improve, with a forecast of 62.80% for 2025E [12]. Key Financial Ratios - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 6.60 for 2025 and a P/B ratio of 0.60 for the same year, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [5][12]. - The return on average assets (ROAA) is expected to decline slightly to 0.49% by 2027, while the return on average equity (ROAE) is projected to decrease to 9.35% [12]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a 1.13% increase over the past week and a 22.17% increase over the past year, indicating positive market sentiment [8].

盈利预测与投资建议 邮储银行 601658.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 成本收入比优化，对公业务增长较快 ——邮储银行 25Q1 季报点评 核心观点 ⚫ 根据 25Q1 财报数据，上调信贷增速、非息收入增速假设，下调息差假设，预测公司 25/26/27 年归母净利润同比增速为 0.2%/1.3%/1.7%， BVPS 为 8.96/9.57/10.18 元 （原预测值分别为 8.97/9.59/10.24 元），当前股价对应 25/26/27 年 PB 为 0.60X/0.56X/0.53X。相比可比公司维持 20%的估值溢价，对应 25 年 0.80 倍 PB，目 标价 7.17 元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；信贷需求不及预期；资产质量恶化。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 342,507 | 348,775 | 352,082 | 357,736 | 367,162 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The six major banks in China have shown mixed performance in terms of total assets, operating income, net profit, net interest margin, non-performing loan ratio, and provision coverage ratio as of the first quarter of 2025, indicating varying levels of growth and challenges across the sector [1][3][5][7][9][11]. Total Assets - As of March 2025, the total assets of the six major banks reached 208.13 trillion yuan, a growth of 4.23% compared to the end of 2024 [1]. - The ranking by total assets is as follows: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) at 51.55 trillion yuan, Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) and China Construction Bank (CCB) both over 40 trillion yuan, Bank of China (BOC) at 35.99 trillion yuan, Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) at 17.69 trillion yuan, and Bank of Communications (BoCom) at 15.29 trillion yuan [1]. - ICBC and CCB had asset growth rates exceeding 5%, while BoCom had the slowest growth rate at 2.61% [1]. Operating Income - In the first quarter of 2025, the six major banks collectively achieved operating income of 910.18 billion yuan [3]. - The ranking by operating income is ICBC at 212.77 billion yuan, followed by CCB, ABC, and BOC all exceeding 150 billion yuan, PSBC at 89.36 billion yuan, and BoCom at 66.37 billion yuan [3]. - Only BOC and ABC experienced positive year-on-year growth in operating income, with BOC's growth rate at 2.56%, while the other four banks saw declines, with CCB experiencing the largest drop at -5.40% [3]. Net Profit - The total net profit for the six major banks in the first quarter of 2025 was 350.19 billion yuan [5]. - The ranking by net profit is ICBC and CCB both exceeding 80 billion yuan, with PSBC and BoCom around 25 billion yuan, and PSBC's net profit just 2.57 billion yuan less than BoCom's [5]. - Except for ABC and BoCom, the other four banks saw year-on-year declines in net profit, with ICBC experiencing the largest decrease at -3.81% [5]. Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for the six major banks continued to decline in the first quarter, with PSBC having the highest margin at 1.71%, down 16 basis points from the full year of 2024, while BoCom's margin was only 1.23% [7]. Non-Performing Loan Ratio - As of March 2025, all banks except PSBC saw a decrease or stability in their non-performing loan ratios compared to the end of 2024, while PSBC's ratio increased by 1 basis point [9]. - In absolute terms, PSBC had the lowest non-performing loan ratio among the six banks at 0.91%, which is less than 70% of the other five banks [9]. Provision Coverage Ratio - As of March 2025, the provision coverage ratios for four of the six banks decreased compared to the end of 2024, except for ICBC and CCB [11]. - In absolute terms, ABC had the highest provision coverage ratio at 297.81%, followed by PSBC at 266.13%, while BOC's ratio fell below 200% to 197.97% [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy-A" with a target price of 6.31 CNY over the next six months [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the bank's revenue decreased by 0.07% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while pre-provision profit grew by 6.20%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 2.62% year-on-year [1]. - The growth in profit is primarily supported by the expansion of interest-earning assets and cost reduction, although narrowing net interest margins and increased provisioning have negatively impacted performance [1][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of the end of Q1 2025, total assets of Postal Savings Bank increased by 8.31% year-on-year, with total loans growing by 9.78% and financial investments by 9.45% [1]. - The bank's net interest margin for Q1 2025 was measured at 1.71%, showing a decline of 21 basis points year-on-year [4][22]. - Non-interest income increased by 14.83% year-on-year, with net fees growing by 8.76% and other non-interest income rising by 21.70% [10]. Loan and Deposit Growth - Corporate loans saw a significant increase of 15.17% year-on-year, with a quarterly addition of 362 billion CNY [2]. - Retail loans grew by 4.27% year-on-year, with a quarterly increase of 678 billion CNY [2]. - Total deposits rose by 9.22% year-on-year, with corporate and retail deposits increasing by 20.46% and 7.94%, respectively [3]. Asset Quality and Provisions - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 0.91% at the end of Q1 2025, remaining stable [10]. - The bank increased its provisioning efforts, with a coverage ratio of 266.13% [10]. Future Outlook - The bank plans to enhance support for key sectors such as new productivity and inclusive small and micro enterprises, while also increasing consumer loan offerings [11]. - Revenue growth is projected at 1.43% for 2025, with net profit growth expected at 2.65% [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The report highlights a slight decline in revenue growth of -0.1% and a net profit decrease of -2.6% for Q1 2025, with interest income down by 3.8%. However, non-interest income saw a significant increase of 14.8%, driven by an 8.8% growth in fee income and a 21.7% rise in other non-interest income [2][10]. - The bank has effectively reduced management expenses, leading to a 6.5% increase in Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP). The bank's self-operated deposits increased by over 100 billion year-on-year, contributing to lower funding costs [2][10]. - The report projects a future dividend yield of 4.3% for A shares and 4.9% for H shares, considering potential dilution from a private placement [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue growth was -0.1%, with net profit down 2.6% and interest income down 3.8%. Non-interest income growth was robust at 14.8%, with fee income up 8.8% and other non-interest income up 21.7% [2][10]. - The bank's total assets grew by 3.5% compared to the beginning of the year, with loans increasing by 5.0%. Corporate loans rose by 9.9%, while retail loans grew by 1.4% [10]. Cost Management - The bank has initiated proactive adjustments to agency fees, resulting in a 4.6% decrease in business management expenses year-on-year, which has positively impacted PPOP growth [10]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio increased slightly to 0.91%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased to 266%. The report indicates that the increase in NPLs is primarily due to retail sector risks [6][10]. Dividend and Valuation - The report estimates a dividend yield of 4.3% for A shares and 4.9% for H shares, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.61x for A shares and 0.52x for H shares for 2025 [10][26].

Core Insights - The article highlights the top short-selling stocks in the market, indicating significant investor sentiment and potential market movements [1][2][3] Group 1: Short-Selling Ratios - BYD Company Limited (81211) has the highest short-selling ratio at 69.90% [2] - Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (02607) follows with a short-selling ratio of 54.31% [2] - Postal Savings Bank of China (01658) has a short-selling ratio of 54.01% [2] Group 2: Short-Selling Amounts - Xiaomi Group (01810) leads in short-selling amount with 1.61 billion [3] - Alibaba Group (09988) has a short-selling amount of 1.398 billion [3] - BYD Company (01211) has a short-selling amount of 1.009 billion [3] Group 3: Deviation Values - China Southern Airlines (01055) has the highest deviation value at 34.86% [1][3] - Guosheng Tang (02273) also shows a significant deviation value of 34.86% [1][3] - Gemdale Corporation (00535) has a deviation value of 33.51% [1][3]