贛鋒鋰業短線分析：鋰價週期反轉預期下，技術突破信號顯現 截至2026年1月13日，贛鋒鋰業（01772）股價展現強勢格局，最新報60.8元，單日上漲2.87%。近期股價上漲的背景是鋰電行業出現了"反內卷"和從"卷價 格"轉向"卷價值"的積極變化，以及市場對行業週期即將反轉的強烈預期。 根據最新的技術分析數據，贛鋒鋰業股價短期內的關鍵價格區間已非常清晰，投資者可重點關注以下點位。 上方阻力方面，首要關口位於66.4元。這與2025年7月的技術分析中提到的67.2元關鍵阻力位高度接近。能否有效突破並站穩該位置，是股價打開通往69.6元 乃至更高目標區間（如73.2元）的關鍵。突破此區域意味著新一輪上漲空間可能被打開。 從技術走勢觀察，贛鋒鋰業的股價已呈現出明確的多頭排列格局。10天線（MA10）、30天線（MA30）及60天線（MA60）分別位於56.17元、52.61元及 51.71元，當前股價穩定站在所有關鍵均線之上，表明中期上升趨勢結構穩固。多項核心趨勢指標也發出積極信號，一目均衡表和MACD信號均為"買入"， 顯示中期上升動能正在增強。 然而，在短期急速拉升後，部分振盪指標已發出調整警示，提示市場存在短期 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內 容 概 不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的 任 何 損 失 承 擔 任 何 責 任。 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立之股份有限公司） （股份代號：1772） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條 刊 發。 根據中華人民共和國的有關法例規定，江西贛鋒鋰業集團股份有限公司（「本 公 司」）在 深 圳 證 券 交 易 所 網 站（http://www.szse.cn/）刊 發 了 以 下 公 告。茲 載 列 如 下，僅 供 參 閱。 承董事會命 江西贛鋒鋰業集團股份有限公司 董事長 李良彬 中 國‧江 西 二 零 二 六 年 一 月 十 三 日 於本公告日 期，董事會成員包括本公司執行董事李良彬先 生、王曉申先 生、沈海博先 生、黃婷女士及李承霖先 生；本公司非執行董事羅榮女 士； 本公司獨立非執行董事王金本先 生、黃浩鈞先 生、徐一新女士及徐光華 先 生；以及本公司職工董事廖萃女 士。 证 ...

证券代码：002460 证券简称：赣锋锂业 编号：临2026-002 江西赣锋锂业集团股份有限公司 关于为控股子公司提供担保的进展公告 本公司及其董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，无 虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏。 一、担保情况概述 1、江西赣锋锂业集团股份有限公司(以下简称"公司"或"赣锋 锂业") 于 2025 年 3 月 28 日召开的第五届董事会第九十一次会议、 于 2025 年 6 月 25 日召开 2024 年年度股东会审议通过了《关于 2025 年度公司及子公司对外担保额度预计的议案》，为满足公司及子公司 的发展和生产经营需要，同意公司向子公司提供连带责任保证担保额 度合计人民币 2,521,000 万元，同意子公司向子公司提供连带责任保 证担保额度人民币 1,114,000 万元，两项合计担保总额人民币 3,635,000 万元（包括新增担保和原有担保的展期或续保）。其中公 司及子公司向资产负债率 70%以上的子公司提供总额不超过人民币 1,501,000 万元，向资产负债率 70%以下的子公司（含新设立暂无财 务数据的子公司）提供总额不超过人民币 2,134,000 万元。本次 ...

一则出口退税的消息将碳酸锂价格推上高潮，期货合约全面涨停，近期以势不可挡的趋势，走出了加速通道，1月份短短7个交易日涨幅已高达40%，锂电板 块迎来狂欢。 智通财经APP了解到，近日财政部、税务总局近日发布的公告，自2026年4月1日起至12月31日，电池产品增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%，2027年1月1日 起彻底取消。受该消息提振，碳酸锂期货合约全面涨停，其中主力合约2605一字涨停，次日主力合约再次涨停，而2026年开年以来涨幅已达40%。港A股锂 电板块跟随大涨，AH龙头赣锋锂业（01772）领涨，港股两日涨幅近10%。 供需仍偏紧，有利润空间下游或博弈 从供给端来看，目前供需基本达成平衡，2025年12月份需求量总需求量已超过总供给量，1月份预期偏紧状态。而库存方面，去年下半年开始就持续性去 库，加上期间停产及检修，库存基本见底，这也导致了政策驱动下的抢货潮。从趋势上看，政策依旧是后期产能供给最核心的影响要素。 碳酸锂"产能"未来有缩紧的预期，主要为2026年"反内卷"仍为行业主题，在政策上综合整治"内卷式"竞争，对新增产能进行严控。在今年1月份，政府部门 印发《关于固体废物综合治理行动计划的通知 ...

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant capital inflows into various stocks, highlighting investor interest in specific sectors such as power equipment, communication devices, and gaming [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Capital Inflows - TBEA (特变电工) saw a capital inflow of 1.846 billion, with a price increase of 10.01% [2] - Haige Communication (海格通信) experienced a capital inflow of 1.661 billion, with a price increase of 10% [2] - ZQ Game (掌趣科技) had a capital inflow of 0.791 billion, with a notable price increase of 14.91% [2] - Yonyou Network (用友网络) attracted 0.768 billion in capital, with a price increase of 7.87% [2] - Shanghai Construction (上海建工) received 0.603 billion, with a price increase of 10.14% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The power equipment sector, represented by TBEA, shows strong investor confidence with significant capital inflows [2] - The communication device sector, including Haige Communication and Lian Te Technology (联特科技), also reflects positive investor sentiment [2][3] - The gaming industry, represented by ZQ Game and Century Huaman (世纪华通), demonstrates robust growth potential with substantial capital inflows [2][3] - The education sector, represented by Zhonggong Education (中公教育), shows a healthy capital inflow of 0.508 billion, indicating investor interest [2] - The energy metal sector, represented by Ganfeng Lithium (赣锋锂业) and Tianqi Lithium (天齐锂业), continues to attract investment, reflecting ongoing demand in the market [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a surge in lithium carbonate prices driven by policy changes, leading to a "crazy market" during the traditional off-season [1] - As of January 13, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit a limit-up price of 174,060 yuan/ton, marking an increase of 11.99% and over 40% rise in January alone [1][2] - Since the low point of nearly 60,000 yuan in June 2025, lithium prices have surged over 190% [1] Group 2 - The recent adjustment in export tax policies for photovoltaic products has triggered a "rush for lithium," as companies accelerate procurement to avoid rising costs [4] - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate has reached 158,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade has surpassed 153,000 yuan/ton [4] - Downstream companies are actively seeking lithium supplies, with reports of high demand and low inventory levels among suppliers [4] Group 3 - Analysts expect that the reduction in export tax rates will stimulate export demand, leading to a strong market for lithium carbonate in the short term [6] - The overall supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate may tighten throughout the year, with prices expected to rise further [6] - The cancellation of export tax for battery products by 2027 is anticipated to maintain ongoing demand for lithium carbonate [7] Group 4 - The timing of the export tax adjustment is seen as appropriate, as the demand for lithium batteries in the first quarter of 2026 is projected to be only 18% of the annual total [7] - The adjustment may help align export prices with market supply and demand, reducing the perception of subsidizing overseas consumers [7] - Future adjustments to export tax policies may extend to other high-export products, including chemicals and machinery [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a surge in the lithium carbonate market driven by policy changes, leading to a significant price increase during the traditional off-season [1][5] - On January 13, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit the daily limit, rising by 11.99% to 174,060 yuan per ton, marking a cumulative increase of over 40% this month [1] - Since the low point of nearly 60,000 yuan in June 2025, lithium prices have surged by over 190% [1] Group 2 - The lithium battery sector in both Hong Kong and A-shares has shown strong performance, with companies like Ganfeng Lithium rising over 7% and Tianqi Lithium over 3% [3][4] - The recent adjustment in export tax policies for photovoltaic and battery products has triggered a "rush for lithium," as companies aim to stock up before costs rise due to the phased reduction of export tax rates starting in 2026 [5][6] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has reached 158,000 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade has surpassed 153,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong demand from downstream customers [6] Group 3 - Analysts expect that the reduction in export tax rates will stimulate a rush for exports, reinforcing demand expectations and leading to a strong performance in lithium prices [9] - The market is anticipated to experience a tight supply-demand balance throughout the year, with lithium prices likely to rise further [9] - The timing of the export tax adjustment is seen as appropriate, as it may help balance supply and demand in the second half of the year [10]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - A surge in lithium carbonate prices has been observed, with the main futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hitting a limit up of 11.99%, reaching 174,060 yuan/ton, marking a cumulative increase of over 40% this month alone [1] - Since the low point of nearly 60,000 yuan in June 2025, lithium prices have skyrocketed by over 190% [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - The lithium battery sector in both Hong Kong and A-shares has shown strong performance, with Ganfeng Lithium rising over 7%, and other companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Tibet Mining increasing by over 5% [3][4] Group 3: Policy Impact - Recent adjustments to export tax policies for photovoltaic and battery products have triggered a "rush for lithium," as companies anticipate increased costs due to the phased reduction of export tax rates starting in 2026 [5][6] - The export tax rate for battery products will decrease from 9% to 6% in April 2026, ultimately being eliminated by 2027 [5] Group 4: Supply Chain Reactions - The policy changes have led downstream battery manufacturers to accelerate their procurement plans to avoid rising costs, resulting in a concentrated rush for lithium supplies [6] - Current market prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate have reached 158,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade has surpassed 153,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the reduction in export tax rates will stimulate demand and lead to a strong performance in lithium prices, with a potential tightening of supply and demand dynamics throughout the year [8] - The ongoing "rush for exports" is anticipated to continue until the elimination of the export tax in 2027, which may lead to a concentrated release of demand in the short term [8][9]

Core Insights - The lithium carbonate market is undergoing significant changes due to explosive growth in the global new energy industry, with predictions indicating a dual competitive landscape of "technical barriers + resource control" by 2026, and an increasing influence of Chinese companies in the global supply chain [1] Group 1: Leading Companies - SQM, the Chilean chemical giant, maintains its top position due to its inherent advantages from South American salt lakes and its unique solar evaporation lithium extraction technology, keeping production costs at the lowest level in the industry [3] - Ganfeng Lithium is emerging as a strong challenger through a vertical integration strategy, with a global layout from Australian mines to Mexican clay mines, and its innovative adsorption lithium extraction technology has improved recovery rates to 87%, with expected production capacity exceeding 250,000 tons by 2026 [3] - Albemarle remains in the top three due to its deep ties with Tesla, but its reliance on hard rock lithium extraction is becoming a disadvantage amid tightening environmental policies [3] Group 2: Emerging Players - Tianqi Lithium holds the fourth position thanks to its high-quality resources from the Greenbushes mine, while Nantong Kejie Chemical Co., Ltd. is gaining attention as a rising star, having successfully entered the battery-grade lithium carbonate market through industry-academia collaboration [4] - Nantong Kejie has developed a "gradient crystallization purification method" that enhances the conversion efficiency of industrial-grade lithium carbonate by 40%, allowing it to forecast a position in the global top five by 2026 [4] Group 3: Supply Chain Resilience - The 2023 Indonesian nickel ore export ban has highlighted the need for supply chain resilience, prompting forward-looking companies to diversify raw material channels, such as Ganfeng's lithium mica project in Africa expected to start production in 2025 [7] - Nantong Kejie has innovatively established a waste battery recycling network, with a recycling plant in the Yangtze River Delta achieving a 92% metal recovery rate, contrasting with companies overly reliant on single mineral sources facing over 30% fluctuations in procurement costs [7] Group 4: Technological Innovations - Traditional giants continue to adhere to rock/salt lake lithium extraction methods, while innovators like Nantong Kejie are exploring new avenues, such as breakthroughs in seawater lithium extraction projects aiming to reduce costs to $8,000 per ton [8] - Advances in bio-lithium extraction technology are also being made, with certain lithium-absorbing bacteria showing a 73% adsorption efficiency in simulated environments, potentially reshaping the industry landscape in the next three years [8] Group 5: ESG Standards - The implementation of the EU carbon border tax is driving the entire industry towards green transformation, with SQM facing protests over water resource disputes, while Chinese companies' integrated photovoltaic-storage solutions are gaining favor [9] - Nantong Kejie’s zero-carbon factory plan is notable, featuring a rooftop solar power generation capacity of 12 million kWh annually, and treated wastewater that can support ornamental fish farming, showcasing visible environmental management as a competitive advantage for international clients [9]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a strong performance in lithium mining stocks, with Tibet Summit rising over 8%, Zhongmin Resources and Salt Lake Shares increasing over 6%, and Ganfeng Lithium and Yahua Group gaining over 5% [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit the daily limit, rising by 11.99% to 174,060 yuan per ton, marking two consecutive trading days of limit-up [1] - Year-to-date, the lithium carbonate futures have accumulated a rise of over 40% this month [1]