Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market for lithium battery concepts continues to rise, with notable increases in stock prices for several companies [1] - Hongqiao Group (08137.HK) saw an increase of 8.33%, reaching HKD 0.52 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) rose by 7.9%, trading at HKD 66.95 [1] - Tianqi Lithium (09696.HK) experienced a 5.78% increase, priced at HKD 57.65 [1] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL) (03750.HK) increased by 1.94%, with a stock price of HKD 493.4 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a general increase in non-ferrous metals, with significant price movements observed in various metals such as tin, nickel, and silver [1] - The LME copper price rose by $24, reaching $13,188 per ton, while LME aluminum fell by $12 to $3,186 per ton [1] - The international geopolitical tensions are driving safe-haven investments and central bank allocations towards gold, reinforcing a bullish trend in precious metals [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) saw a strong increase of 1.55%, with notable gains in stocks such as Huayou Cobalt, which rose by 7.20%, and Yunnan Tin, which increased by 5.32% [1] - The Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF closely tracks the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the non-ferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 51.65% of the total, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Northern Rare Earth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a rise in stock prices, driven by recent policy changes regarding export tax rates for battery products, which may boost inventory enthusiasm among downstream lithium enterprises and impact the already tight lithium carbonate market [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Hongqiao Group (08137) increased by 8.33%, trading at 0.52 HKD [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) rose by 7.9%, trading at 66.95 HKD [1] - Tianqi Lithium (09696) saw a 5.78% increase, trading at 57.65 HKD [1] - Contemporary Amperex Technology (03750) grew by 1.94%, trading at 493.4 HKD [1] Group 2: Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a reduction in the export VAT rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6%, effective from April 1 to December 31 [1] - Starting January 1, 2027, the export VAT rebate for battery products will be eliminated [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - Industry experts suggest that the reduction in export VAT rebate rates may significantly enhance the inventory enthusiasm of downstream lithium enterprises [1] - A recent meeting involving multiple government agencies discussed the need to address irrational competition and optimize capacity management in the battery industry to prevent overcapacity risks [1]

Group 1 - The energy metals sector has seen an increase, with Huayou Cobalt rising over 5% [1] - Other companies such as Yuanhang Precision, Hanrui Cobalt, Tengyuan Cobalt, and Ganfeng Lithium also experienced gains [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic shift of Chinese energy storage companies towards listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX), highlighting the necessity for stable and international capital supply amidst a slowing IPO environment in A-shares. This migration is seen as a critical move for global competitiveness and technological leadership in the energy storage sector [3][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The overall IPO pace in A-shares has slowed down in the second half of 2023, marking a significant turning point for Chinese energy storage companies that require consistent capital supply for expansion and technological advancement [3]. - UBS predicts that over 30 A-share companies will list in Hong Kong by 2025, particularly in the energy storage sector, indicating a concentrated trend towards international capital markets [3]. Group 2: Key Companies and Listings - CATL (宁德时代) plans to list on the HKEX in May 2025, aiming to raise over 50 billion HKD (approximately 6.4 billion USD) for overseas projects, including a battery factory in Hungary [4]. - Other companies such as Sungrow Power Supply (阳光电源) and EVE Energy (亿纬锂能) are also preparing for HKEX listings, with significant fundraising goals to support their international expansion and technological development [12][4]. Group 3: Strategic Advantages of HKEX - The HKEX offers clearer and more flexible listing standards compared to A-shares, which is crucial for energy storage companies that require rapid access to capital [16]. - Hong Kong serves as a "safe harbor" for companies looking to avoid regulatory risks associated with U.S. listings, while also providing access to global capital [17]. Group 4: Industry Growth and Future Outlook - The energy storage sector in China is projected to see a significant increase in installed capacity, with a forecast of 56.41 GW/175.89 GWh added in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.85% in power and 60.51% in capacity [18]. - The article emphasizes that the capital raised through HKEX listings will be directed towards international projects, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia, to meet growing energy demands [19][21]. Group 5: Technological Innovation and Competition - Companies are increasingly focusing on technological innovation and operational efficiency to navigate the current market adjustments, moving away from price competition [19]. - The integration of AI and next-generation technologies, such as solid-state batteries, is becoming a key factor in attracting international capital and enhancing competitive positioning [21].

Core Viewpoint - 2026 is identified as the "Year of the Red Horse," which is favorable for the Chinese base metals market due to factors such as a weak dollar, a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, and strong demand driven by electrification and AI power infrastructure [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - A weak dollar and the U.S. interest rate cut cycle are beneficial for metals [1] - Continuous supply tightness for copper and aluminum is noted [1] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Key demand drivers include a 10% year-on-year increase in grid investment, a 27% growth in electric vehicle battery demand, a 41% increase in energy storage systems, and rising AI power demand [1] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The real estate and consumer sectors are experiencing weakness [1] - Policies aimed at reducing internal competition are becoming more balanced, although recent execution has been weak [1] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The firm prefers aluminum stocks as alternative investments for AI power supply [1] - A "buy" outlook is maintained for gold, copper, lithium (including battery materials), and cobalt stocks [1] - Coal is viewed neutrally, while solar and construction materials (like steel) are seen negatively due to weak demand and declining steel profit margins [1] Group 5: Preferred Stocks - Preferred stocks include China Aluminum, Zijin Mining, China Hongqiao, Shandong Gold, and Ganfeng Lithium [1]

Group 1 - Lithium stocks have risen again, with Tianqi Lithium (002466) up 3.81% to HKD 57.15 and Ganfeng Lithium (002460) up 3.72% to HKD 61.35 [2] - On January 13, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange broke through RMB 170,000 per ton, reaching a new high since October 2023 [2] - The latest price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) rose by RMB 12,080 to RMB 152,100 per ton on January 12, marking a new high in over two years and increasing for seven consecutive days [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and the cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [2] - According to Guosen Securities, there may be a short-term surge in export demand from overseas clients due to a policy buffer period, leading to a significant off-peak season in the industry chain [2]

矿业价值链包括勘探、采选、冶炼加工、精加工、运输与分销、回收与终端处置等环节，链条深长、工 艺复杂，任何节点的干扰都可能波及上下游，形成供应链风险。特别是，与能源转型相关的锂、镍、钴 等金属矿呈现种类多、品位低、资源分布分散等特征，造成其供应在资源禀赋和技术能力等方面更受限 制，安全保障难度显着提高。在多重不确定性叠加下，能源转型金属矿的产业链比较脆弱，投资风险偏 高。 我国虽在能源转型金属矿的加工精炼环节具有优势，但矿种来源主要依赖进口。以锂、钴为例，我国 2022年消费量在全球占比分别为65.9%和42.8%，但国内矿山产量在全球占比仅约为14%和1%，绝大部 分由外部供应。为强化供应链韧性，近年国内矿产公司积极涉足能源转型金属矿的海外投资，紫金矿 业、赣锋锂业、洛阳钼业、华友钴业等都在此列。 值得注意的是，随着全球矿产投资的增加，各方对矿产资源的争夺更为加剧，资源国地区的地缘政治冲 突与资源民族主义也同步兴起。尤其，全球矿产资源禀赋分布不均，矿业投资多发生于资源国，而资本 约束与终端消费主要来自国际市场与下游工业国，故单一国家的法律对跨国矿业投资的约束存在天然边 界。在资源国监管能力不足与跨境执法不易的 ...

Market Overview - On January 13, major indices in China experienced collective adjustments, with the Shenzhen Component Index falling over 1% and the ChiNext Index dropping nearly 2%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.37%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.96%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 49.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - In the U.S. stock market, the three major indices also declined on January 13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 398.21 points to close at 49,191.99, a decrease of 0.80%. The S&P 500 Index dropped by 13.53 points to 6,963.74, down 0.19%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased by 24.03 points to 23,709.87, a decline of 0.10% [1] Sector Performance - In the Chinese market, over 3,700 stocks declined, with the AI application concept sector rising against the trend, seeing over ten constituent stocks hitting the daily limit up. The AI medical concept remained active, while the power grid equipment sector strengthened in the afternoon. The retail sector also showed active performance. Conversely, the commercial aerospace and controllable nuclear fusion sectors experienced significant declines [1] - In the U.S., the performance of major indices reflected a general downward trend, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1] Commodity Prices - International oil prices rose on January 13. The price of light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by $1.65 to $61.15 per barrel, a rise of 2.77%. The March delivery Brent crude oil futures price rose by $1.60 to $65.47 per barrel, an increase of 2.51% [2] Policy and Regulatory Updates - The Ministry of Commerce of China announced the continuation of anti-dumping duties on imported solar-grade polysilicon from the U.S. and South Korea, effective from January 14, 2026, for a period of five years [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an action plan for the high-quality development of industrial internet platforms from 2026 to 2028, aiming for significant progress in platform development and resource connectivity by 2028 [3][4] Company-Specific Developments - The approval of NVIDIA to export its H200 AI chips to China is expected to restart shipments to Chinese customers. This decision will be overseen by the U.S. Department of Commerce, which will also impose a fee of approximately 25% on the related transactions [7]

贛鋒鋰業短線分析：鋰價週期反轉預期下，技術突破信號顯現 截至2026年1月13日，贛鋒鋰業（01772）股價展現強勢格局，最新報60.8元，單日上漲2.87%。近期股價上漲的背景是鋰電行業出現了"反內卷"和從"卷價 格"轉向"卷價值"的積極變化，以及市場對行業週期即將反轉的強烈預期。 根據最新的技術分析數據，贛鋒鋰業股價短期內的關鍵價格區間已非常清晰，投資者可重點關注以下點位。 上方阻力方面，首要關口位於66.4元。這與2025年7月的技術分析中提到的67.2元關鍵阻力位高度接近。能否有效突破並站穩該位置，是股價打開通往69.6元 乃至更高目標區間（如73.2元）的關鍵。突破此區域意味著新一輪上漲空間可能被打開。 從技術走勢觀察，贛鋒鋰業的股價已呈現出明確的多頭排列格局。10天線（MA10）、30天線（MA30）及60天線（MA60）分別位於56.17元、52.61元及 51.71元，當前股價穩定站在所有關鍵均線之上，表明中期上升趨勢結構穩固。多項核心趨勢指標也發出積極信號，一目均衡表和MACD信號均為"買入"， 顯示中期上升動能正在增強。 然而，在短期急速拉升後，部分振盪指標已發出調整警示，提示市場存在短期 ...