Core Viewpoint - The market needs to revise its price expectations for lithium carbonate as futures prices hit a new high of 90,000 yuan/ton due to production suspension news, while multiple lithium salt projects are ramping up capacity, stabilizing supply [3]. Supply Expansion - China Minmetals has officially started a 40,000-ton lithium salt steam transportation project, which will fully release 115,000 tons/year lithium salt capacity from China's salt lakes by October [4]. - Chuaneng Power's De'a Lithium Industry has successfully debugged its production of qualified battery-grade lithium salt, with a capacity of 15,000 tons/year for both lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide expected to reach full production in August [4]. - Ganfeng Lithium's lithium extraction project in Xuanhan County, Sichuan, is expected to produce 45,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide this year [5]. - Zijin Lithium Yuan plans to launch a 25,000-ton battery-grade lithium carbonate project by December, while Yahua Group's new 30,000-ton lithium hydroxide production line will be completed within the year [5]. - These five projects will contribute an additional 170,000 tons of lithium salt capacity for the year [6]. Future Supply Projections - The market anticipates that by 2025, an additional 260,000 tons of lithium carbonate supply will be added domestically, bringing total production to 800,000 tons, accounting for nearly 70% of global output [7]. Cost and Production Insights - The share of low-cost lithium salt production is increasing, with salt lake lithium extraction becoming a significant source of new capacity due to its lower operating costs [8]. - The largest soluble potassium and magnesium salt deposit, the Qarhan Salt Lake, has historically suffered from technical bottlenecks, but the new steam project by China Minmetals is expected to enhance lithium recovery by 25% and reduce production costs by 12,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Ganfeng Lithium has been actively investing in low-cost lithium mines, with its Mariana salt lake project producing 20,000 tons of lithium chloride this year [8]. Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in lithium spodumene prices have seen a significant rebound, with prices rising from 5,550 yuan/ton to 7,500 yuan/ton, marking the largest weekly increase of the year [11]. - Current market prices for lithium carbonate hover around 80,000 yuan/ton, with spodumene extraction still maintaining profit margins [11]. - The new mineral resources law has increased costs for low-grade lithium mica mines, leading to a projected 50% reduction in production capacity by 2025 [11]. Supply and Demand Balance - The oversupply situation for lithium carbonate is unlikely to change in the short term, but the extent of the oversupply may narrow by 2025 [16]. - The balance between upstream capacity release and downstream demand expansion will determine the price turning point for lithium carbonate [13]. - Recent inventory data shows that domestic lithium carbonate weekly inventory remains high at 140,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 0.5% [15].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that Ganfeng Lithium's Q2 performance met expectations, with a net loss of 175 million RMB, while the gross margin of 9.6% fell short of projections. The market is expected to focus on management's outlook for lithium prices, which is anticipated to become more rational in the short term [1]. Group 1 - Ganfeng Lithium reported a net loss of 175 million RMB for Q2 [1]. - The gross margin was 9.6%, which did not meet expectations [1]. - Management expressed optimism that lithium price levels will trend towards rationality in the short term [1]. Group 2 - Credit Lyonnais has raised its lithium price forecasts and adjusted its earnings estimates for Ganfeng Lithium [1]. - The valuation method has shifted to a price-to-earnings basis, extending to 2027 [1]. - The target price for H-shares has been increased from 25 HKD to 35 HKD, and the target price for A-shares has been raised from 37 RMB to 45 RMB [1]. Group 3 - The ratings for both A and H shares have been upgraded from "Hold" to "Outperform" [1].

智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，赣锋锂业(01772)次季业绩符合预期，净亏损为1.75亿元人民币。 虽然毛利率9.6%未达预期，但该行预期市场将更关注管理层对锂价前景的展望，而管理层则表示短期 内价格水平有望更趋理性。该行上调锂价预测及对其盈利预估，并改以市盈率为估值基础，延展至2027 年，以目标市盈率15倍计，H股目标价由25港元升至35港元，赣锋A股(002460.SZ)目标价由37元人民币 升至45元人民币，A/H股评级均由"持有"上调至"跑赢大市"。 ...

该行将赣锋2025年经常性盈利预测下调28%，以反映氢氧化锂实现平均售价低于预期，以及上半年锂销 量减少，但将2026至27年经常性盈利上调12%至44%，因部分项目生产成本较预期低等因素。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，赣锋锂业(01772)上半年净亏损5.36亿元人民币(下同)，较去年同 期亏损7.59亿元有所收窄。若剔除一次性项目，经常性净亏损为4.42亿元，而去年同期则录得经常性盈 利。该行指业绩逊于预期，主要因锂化学品利润低于预期。公司今年亦未有宣派中期股息。该行维持赣 锋H股"中性"评级，目标价由19港元升至28港元，维持赣锋A股(002460.SZ)"沽售"评级，目标价由21.4 元人民币升至30.5元人民币。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reported that Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) recorded a net loss of 536 million RMB in the first half of the year, an improvement from a loss of 759 million RMB in the same period last year [1] - Excluding one-time items, the recurring net loss was 442 million RMB, compared to a recurring profit in the same period last year [1] - The performance was below expectations primarily due to lower-than-expected profits from lithium chemicals, and the company did not declare an interim dividend this year [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs maintained a "Neutral" rating for Ganfeng's H shares, raising the target price from 19 HKD to 28 HKD, while maintaining a "Sell" rating for Ganfeng's A shares, increasing the target price from 21.4 RMB to 30.5 RMB [1] - The firm lowered its 2025 recurring profit forecast for Ganfeng by 28% to reflect lower-than-expected average selling prices for lithium hydroxide and a decrease in lithium sales volume in the first half of the year [1] - However, the recurring profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were raised by 12% to 44% due to lower-than-expected production costs for certain projects [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global lithium salt industry has undergone significant adjustments in the first half of 2025, leading to financial pressures on major players like Ganfeng Lithium, which reported a revenue decline and increased losses due to falling lithium prices and changing supply-demand dynamics [1][3]. Financial Performance - Ganfeng Lithium achieved a revenue of 8.376 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 12.65% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -531 million yuan, with a non-recurring gain of 382 million yuan, resulting in a loss of -913 million yuan after excluding non-recurring items [1][3]. - Revenue from lithium series products was 4.756 billion yuan, down 27.16%, with a gross margin of 8.4%, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year [4]. Industry Dynamics - The lithium market is experiencing a structural supply-demand mismatch, with prices declining due to oversupply and weak downstream demand [6]. - Ganfeng Lithium's battery segment saw sales growth, but overall performance was impacted by falling prices of lithium salts and lithium battery products [3][6]. Debt and Financial Health - Ganfeng Lithium has a total debt of 629.95 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 58.55% as of mid-2025 [7]. - The company has two outstanding bonds totaling 1.55 billion yuan, with 750 million yuan maturing within a year [9]. - The liquidity ratios, including current and quick ratios, have declined, indicating weakened debt repayment capacity [8]. Future Outlook - The company remains optimistic about future lithium demand growth, anticipating that rationalization of new supply will support stable lithium prices in the long term [9].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.06% as of the midday close [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.57% [1] - Popular tech stocks mostly saw gains, with Lens Technology up over 11% [1] - Founder Holdings increased by over 7% [1] - NIO and SMIC both rose by over 6% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium saw an increase of over 2% [1]

高盛发表研究报告指，赣锋锂业上半年净亏损5.36亿元，较去年同期亏损7.59亿元有所收窄。若剔除一 次性项目，经常性净亏损为4.42亿元，而去年同期则录得经常性盈利。该行指业绩逊于预期，主要因锂 化学品利润低于预期。公司今年亦未有宣派中期股息。 该行将2025年经常性盈利预测下调28%，以反映氢氧化锂实现平均售价低于预期，以及上半年锂销量减 少，但将2026至27年经常性盈利上调12%至44%，因部分项目生产成本较预期低等因素。该行维持对其 H股"中性"评级，目标价由19港元上调至28港元，维持A股"沽售"评级，目标价由21.4元上调至30.5元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In Q2 2025, the overall supply of overseas lithium mines was stable with regional differentiation. The shipment volume of projects in Western Australia and North America increased quarter-on-quarter, while some projects in South America and Africa controlled market supply due to low prices. With the rebound of lithium prices in Q3, it is expected that overseas mines will release supply. The resource output of the three major production areas of Western Australia, South America, and Africa in the second half of the year is expected to be significantly higher than that in the first half, which can alleviate the gap caused by the shutdown of large domestic mines. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the operational continuity of regions such as Jiangxi, Qinghai, and Mali in the resource end [1]. Summary by Directory Australia - In Q2 2025, the shipment volume of Australian mines was about 1.007 million tons, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.9%. Greenbushes and Pilbara contributed the main increments. In the 2025 fiscal year (July 2024 - June 2025), the lithium concentrate output of the five major Australian mines was about 3.551 million tons, and it is expected to increase by about 10% in the 2026 fiscal year. The supply of Holland in the 2025 calendar year will double compared with the expectation. It is estimated that the average quarterly shipment volume of Australian mines in the next four quarters will be about 1 - 1.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 10% [3]. - Greenbushes produced 340,000 tons of lithium concentrate in Q2 2025, basically flat quarter-on-quarter and a 2% year-on-year increase. The sales volume was 412,000 tons, a 13% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 22% year-on-year decrease. The average sales price was 725 US dollars/ton (FOB), a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8%. The cash production cost increased by 7% quarter-on-quarter to 366 Australian dollars/ton, a year-on-year increase of 8%. In the 2025 fiscal year, the production volume was 1.479 million tons, and the unit cash production cost was 325 Australian dollars/ton, meeting the production and cost guidelines. It is expected that CGP3 will produce the first batch of ore around the end of 2025. The production and cash cost guidelines for the 2026 fiscal year are 1.5 - 1.65 million tons and 310 - 360 Australian dollars/ton respectively [4]. - In Q2 2025, the lithium concentrate output of Pilbara was 221,300 tons (SC5.1), a 77% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 2% year-on-year decrease. The sales volume was 216,000 tons (SC5.1), a 72% quarter-on-quarter increase and an 8% year-on-year decrease. The average sales price of spodumene concentrate was 703 US dollars/ton (China CIF, SC6; SC5.1 was 599 US dollars/ton), a 17% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The unit operating cost (including freight and royalties) was 462 US dollars/ton, a 7% quarter-on-quarter decrease and a 4% year-on-year decrease. It is expected that the lithium concentrate output in the 2026 fiscal year will be 820,000 - 870,000 tons, and the unit operating cost (FOB) will drop to 560 - 600 Australian dollars/ton [6]. - In Q2 2025, the total lithium concentrate output of Mt Marion was 124,000 tons, a 11% quarter-on-quarter and 30% year-on-year decrease. The shipment volume was 134,000 tons (SC4.6), a 3% quarter-on-quarter decrease and a 29% year-on-year decrease. The average sales price of lithium concentrate (SC6) was 607 US dollars/ton, a 28% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The cost was 717 Australian dollars/ton (SC6, FOB). In June 2025, its two shareholders will each inject up to 150 million Australian dollars into the project [7][8]. - Wodgina produced 166,000 tons of lithium concentrate in Q2 2025, a 32% increase both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The sales volume was 136,000 tons, a 15% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 10% year-on-year increase. The average Li2O grade was 5.4%. The average realized price of lithium concentrate (SC6) was 674 US dollars/ton, a 20% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The cost was 641 Australian dollars/ton (SC6, FOB), a 17% quarter-on-quarter decrease. In the 2025 fiscal year, the cost was 849 Australian dollars/ton, meeting the cost guideline, and the production volume was 502,000 tons, higher than the guideline [9]. - In Q2 2025, the lithium concentrate output of Kathleen Valley was 85,892 tons, a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase. The sales volume was 97,330 tons, a 4% quarter-on-quarter increase. The average sales price was 740 US dollars/ton (SC6, SC5.2 was 633 US dollars/ton), a 9% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The unit operating cost was 576 US dollars/ton (FOB), a 31% quarter-on-quarter increase. The full sustaining cost (AISC) was 786 US dollars/ton (SC6.0, FOB), a 35% quarter-on-quarter increase. The 2026 fiscal year production guideline is 365,000 - 450,000 tons, a 24 - 53% year-on-year increase [10]. - Mt Holland's lithium salt sales volume in Q2 2025 was about 1,300 tons. The annual sales volume guideline for 2025 is expected to reach 20,000 tons LCE (50% equity), doubling the previous plan. The Quinana refinery in Australia has completed construction and produced the first batch of commercially - compliant products in July. It is expected to reach the nameplate capacity of 50,000 tons of lithium hydroxide by the end of 2026 (SQM accounts for 25,000 tons) [10]. South America - South American projects changed little this quarter. In Q2, companies such as SQM and Sigma controlled the shipment volume due to low lithium prices. It is expected that the sales volume in the second half of the year will have a large increase compared with the first half. The Argentine Chamber of Mining Companies expects that the Argentine lithium carbonate production in 2025 will increase by 75% year-on-year to 130,000 tons. SQM in Chile has a 20,000 - ton increase (+10%) in the Atacama Salt Lake. Brazilian hard - rock projects have cost advantages, and Grota do Cirilo and AMG lithium mines are operating at full capacity [13]. - In Q2 2025, SQM's lithium salt sales volume in Chile was 51,700 tons, a 1.1% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The total sales volume in the first half of the year was 108,100 tons. The average sales price was 9,144 US dollars/ton, a 27% year-on-year decrease. The unit sales cost was 7,038 US dollars/ton, an 18% year-on-year decrease and a 4% quarter-on-quarter increase. The company expects a significant increase in lithium sales in the second half of the year. The sales volume of SQM's Atacama Salt Lake business in Chile is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year in 2025, with an expected sales volume of about 220,000 tons [14][15]. - The Fenix project of Arcadium Lithium had problems with the transportation system in April and energy interruption due to snowfall in May. The total quarterly production of lithium resources was about 15,000 tons LCE (100% equity), a 29% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The production problems have been solved. The Fenix expansion project with a nameplate capacity of 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate is expected to be put into production in 2026 [16]. - The first - phase factory of Rincon lithium project produced the first batch of lithium products in December 2024, and the final system testing and commissioning were completed in Q2 2025. The construction of the 57,000 - ton expansion factory will start in Q3, and the first production is expected to be in 2028, reaching full - load production within three years [17]. - The first - phase 25,000 - ton/year lithium hydroxide factory of Hombre Muerto was completed in October 2024, and the second - phase is planned to be completed in the second half of 2025. The first - phase of Sal de Oro has a design capacity of 25,000 tons/year and started shipping products in September 2024, expected to reach full production in April 2025. The lithium carbonate production in 2024 was about 4,000 tons LCE, and about 16,000 tons LCE in 2025. The second - phase with a design capacity of 25,000 tons/year is planned to start construction in June 2025 and be put into production in 2026 [18]. - In Q2 2025, the total production of Caucharí - Olaroz was about 8,500 tons of lithium carbonate, a 18% quarter-on-quarter increase. The shipment volume was about 8,635 tons, a 21% quarter-on-quarter increase. The unit cash operating cost was 6,098 US dollars/ton, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of about 8%, and the unit total cash cost was 6,366 US dollars/ton, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of about 7%. The unit average realized price was about 7,400 US dollars/ton. The annual production target for 2025 is 30,000 - 35,000 tons. The company is promoting a new 40,000 - ton/year lithium carbonate capacity and evaluating the possibility of producing up to 150,000 tons of lithium carbonate using direct lithium extraction technology [19]. - The production of Centenario - Ratones in Q2 was about 270 tons of lithium carbonate, and the sales volume was 480 tons LCE. Due to technical problems in equipment commissioning in the first half of the year, the production target for 2025 is 4,000 - 7,000 tons, significantly lower than the previous guideline [20]. - The first - phase of Zijin Mining's 3Q lithium salt lake in Argentina is in industrial commissioning and optimization, and it is expected to start producing crude lithium carbonate products in Q3 2025, with an annual production of about 20,000 tons [21]. - In Q2 2025, the lithium concentrate output of Grota do Cirilo was 68,368 tons, a 38% year-on-year increase and flat quarter-on-quarter. The company controlled the shipment volume at low lithium prices. The sales volume was 40,350 tons, a 23% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The single - ton sales cost was 584 US dollars, a 3% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter increase. The cash operating cost (China CIF) was 442 US dollars/ton, a 14% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The unit total sustaining cost (AISC) was 594 US dollars/ton, a 24% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter decrease. The company expects the 2025 fiscal year production to reach 270,000 tons. The second - phase expansion is expected to increase the capacity by 250,000 tons/year in 2026 [22][23]. Africa - Six projects in Zimbabwe and Mali have completed capacity ramping up, but the shipment volume growth was limited in the first half of the year due to low lithium prices, maintenance, and technological transformation. The import of African lithium concentrate by China in the first seven months decreased by 13.7% year-on-year. The recovery of lithium prices may drive the supply increment in Zimbabwe, while the production and shipment rhythm of Chinese - funded lithium mines in Mali may be affected by local political changes [24]. - In the first half of 2025, Zhongkuang Resources' self - supplied raw materials achieved lithium salt sales of 17,869 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 6.37%. It directly sold 34,834 tons of self - produced spodumene concentrate [25]. - The original ore production scale of Sabi Star in Zimbabwe is 990,000 tons/year, and it can produce about 290,000 tons of lithium concentrate per year. The mine suspended production in Q1 for technological transformation and facility construction and resumed production in April. The supporting power plant was completed and put into operation in June [26]. - The lithium ore processing capacity of Yahua Group's Kamativi lithium mine project in Zimbabwe is 2.3 million tons/year, and the nameplate capacity of lithium concentrate is 350,000 tons/year. It is expected to produce about 280,000 tons of lithium concentrate in 2025 and reach full production in 2026 [27]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of 100% equity of Mali Lithium on July 2. The first batch of lithium concentrate was shipped from the mine in May and completed loading in late June, expected to arrive at Chinese ports in early August [28]. - The Bougouni mining area in Mali has a lithium ore mining and processing capacity of 1 million tons, with an expected annual output of more than 125,000 tons of spodumene concentrate. As of mid - August, more than 45,000 tons of lithium concentrate have been produced. The mine team is promoting the acquisition of export licenses from the Malian government [29]. North America - In Q2 2025, North American Lithium (NAL) produced 58,533 tons of lithium concentrate, a 35% quarter-on-quarter increase. The sales volume was 66,980 tons, a 148% quarter-on-quarter increase. The average sales price (FOB) dropped 8% to 1,054 Australian dollars/dry metric ton (682 US dollars/dry ton, a 4% decrease). The unit sales operating cost decreased 10% quarter-on-quarter to 1,232 Australian dollars/ton (FOB), a 5% quarter-on-quarter decrease in US dollars. The 2025 production target is 190,000 - 210,000 tons [30].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guanghua Technology, is currently in the validation stage for its specialized chemical products, which are non-standard and customized according to client requirements, in contrast to Ganfeng Lithium, which has already achieved mass supply of lithium sulfide validated by multiple companies [1] Group 1 - Guanghua Technology responded to an investor inquiry regarding its progress in the validation of lithium sulfide, indicating that it is still in the validation phase [1] - The company emphasized that specialized chemicals are typically non-standard products, tailored to meet varying customer quality and performance specifications [1]