证券日报网讯 1月12日，热景生物发布公告称，根据《上海证券交易所科创板股票做市交易业务实施细 则》相关规定，经广发证券股份有限公司备案申请，自2026年01月13日起，广发证券股份有限公司对科 创板股票热景生物（股票代码：688068）开展做市交易业务。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 27.71 CNY, compared to the current price of 22.31 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the limited scale of the H-share refinancing will have a minor impact on short-term shareholder returns, but it is expected to create a new growth driver for the company's international business in the long term, thereby expanding its development space [2][13]. - The company plans to raise approximately 61 billion HKD through H-share placement and convertible bonds, which will be fully allocated to increase capital for its overseas subsidiaries [13]. - The report adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 14.201 billion, 15.568 billion, and 16.567 billion CNY respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on capital market recovery [13]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 23.3 billion CNY - 2024A: 27.199 billion CNY (up 16.7%) - 2025E: 35.911 billion CNY (up 32.0%) - 2026E: 38.682 billion CNY (up 7.7%) - 2027E: 40.430 billion CNY (up 4.5%) [4][14] - Net profit (attributable to shareholders) is projected as: - 2023A: 6.978 billion CNY - 2024A: 9.637 billion CNY (up 38.1%) - 2025E: 14.201 billion CNY (up 47.4%) - 2026E: 15.568 billion CNY (up 9.6%) - 2027E: 16.567 billion CNY (up 6.4%) [4][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.92 CNY in 2023 to 2.17 CNY in 2027 [4][14]. Market Data - The company has a total market capitalization of 169.686 billion CNY and a total share capital of 7.606 million shares, with 5.904 million shares in circulation [7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 24.37 in 2023 to 10.26 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [4][14].

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to raise approximately HKD 6.1 billion through H-share placement and convertible bonds, which will be fully allocated to increase capital for its overseas subsidiaries, aiming to enhance long-term growth potential and international business expansion [2][3]. Group 1: Fundraising Details - The company intends to issue approximately 19.24% of H shares and 4.31% of total share capital, raising around HKD 6.1 billion [2]. - The proposed placement includes 219 million new H shares, representing about 12.87% of the existing H shares and approximately 2.88% of total share capital, with a placement price of HKD 18.15, expected to net HKD 3.959 billion [2]. - Additionally, the company plans to issue HKD 21.5 billion of zero-coupon convertible bonds, maturing on January 12, 2027, with a conversion price of HKD 19.82, potentially converting into approximately 108 million new H shares, which would account for about 6.37% of existing H shares and approximately 1.43% of total share capital [2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The fundraising will be entirely used to increase capital for overseas subsidiaries, which are crucial for the company's international business growth [3]. - The company did not participate in the previous round of capital replenishment (2019-2022) for A/H refinancing, and this H-share issuance is expected to strengthen its capital position and promote comprehensive business development, particularly in international operations [3]. - Following the capital increase, the net assets of the company's Hong Kong subsidiary are projected to reach approximately HKD 16 billion, positioning it as the fifth largest among Chinese securities firms [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The company maintains a "Buy" rating and raises the target price to HKD 27.71, corresponding to a 1.6x price-to-book ratio for 2025, reflecting an adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [2]. - The industry is experiencing accelerated supply-side reforms, which may serve as a catalyst for growth [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong IPO market will not lead to a bear market; instead, increased demand for the Hong Kong dollar may push the currency to its strong-side guarantee, prompting the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to release liquidity in the interbank market, thereby lowering HIBOR rates and boosting the bull market in Hong Kong stocks [1][10] - In 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to have 117 IPOs raising a total of HKD 285.9 billion, regaining the top position globally after four years. The market anticipates that the IPO fundraising scale in 2026 will continue to be strong, potentially exceeding HKD 300 billion [2][6] - The impact of IPO peaks and fundraising peaks on the Hong Kong stock market is not absolute; historically, these peaks have not reversed the market trend, as seen in previous years like 2010, 2014-2015, 2017, 2020, and 2025 [6][10] Group 2 - The true impact of IPOs on the Hong Kong market may be observed during the six-month lock-up period for cornerstone investors post-listing, with notable declines in the market often coinciding with these unlock periods [16] - However, in 2025, the unlocking of shares did not lead to a market downturn, as the ability for cornerstone investors to sell did not equate to a necessity to sell, allowing new buying power from index funds and foreign investments to offset any selling pressure [16] - There may be a new wave of lock-up share unlocks for mid to large-cap companies (market capitalization over HKD 30 billion) in March and September 2026 [6][16] Group 3 - The short-term stock price increase after inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect is not universally applicable, with historical data showing a low probability of price increases across the full sample [23] - For the Hang Seng Tech Index, institutional investors' presence leads to more accurate predictions regarding index adjustments, with stock prices typically reacting about 30 days before the execution date of adjustments [24] - Following the completion of index adjustments, stock prices usually experience a decline, which typically stabilizes within a week [24]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the securities industry, highlighting a phase of profit growth, structural evolution, and valuation recovery for 2026 [1] Industry Performance Overview - The overall industry performance is expected to see significant growth in 2025, with a mismatch between valuation and performance [4] - From January to November 2025, the Securities II (Shenwan) index increased by 5.6%, underperforming the CSI 300, while the Hong Kong Chinese securities index rose by 42.7%, outperforming the Hang Seng index by 10.9 percentage points [6] - In the first three quarters of 2025, 42 listed securities firms reported a combined revenue and net profit increase of 43% and 62% year-on-year, respectively, with an annualized ROE increase of 2.5 percentage points to 7.3% [6] Business Review and Outlook - **Brokerage Business**: The brokerage business is expected to benefit from increased trading volumes, with significant revenue growth anticipated in 2025. However, a decline in commission rates may limit profitability in traditional channel businesses [8] - **Proprietary Trading**: The contribution of proprietary trading to industry performance has significantly increased, with differentiation among firms based on investment capabilities and equity positions. Leading firms are expected to see stable returns, while smaller firms may experience higher volatility [9] - **Asset Management**: The asset management sector is entering a recovery phase driven by public fund transformation, with expected revenue growth of 33% year-on-year in 2026 [10] - **Investment Banking**: The investment banking sector is anticipated to enter a recovery cycle in 2026, supported by improved market conditions and policy incentives [10] Investment Themes for 2026 - The securities sector is positioned as a cost-effective investment opportunity due to its low valuation and performance recovery phase. Key factors include a clear trend of asset allocation towards equities, a recovery in multiple business lines, and supportive policies [12] - Recommended focus on leading securities firms with stable ROE, such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and GF Securities, which are expected to achieve ROE of 10.1%, 9.4%, and 9.4% in 2026, respectively [12] - Attention should also be given to firms with distinctive asset management and investment banking capabilities, such as Industrial Securities and China International Capital Corporation, which are well-positioned to benefit from ongoing market trends [12] Policy Environment - The report outlines a clear policy direction for the securities industry, emphasizing a shift from scale expansion to functional positioning and high-quality development. This includes a focus on value competition and the optimization of risk control indicators for leading firms [30][32] - The regulatory framework is evolving to support differentiated capabilities and strategic positioning among firms, with an emphasis on enhancing professional services and internationalization [32][34]

证券日报网讯1月9日，广发证券在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至目前，公司没有应披露而未披 露的信息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the vehicle trade-in policy to a "proportional subsidy" will significantly benefit mid-to-high-end vehicles, with an estimated profit increase of 15.9 billion yuan for the passenger car industry in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impact - The new policy, effective from December 30, 2025, provides a subsidy of 12% for new energy vehicles and 10% for fuel vehicles, with maximum subsidies of 20,000 yuan and 15,000 yuan respectively for scrapping [1]. - The trade-in subsidy for purchasing new energy and fuel vehicles will be 8% and 6% respectively, with maximum subsidies of 15,000 yuan and 13,000 yuan [1]. - The adjustment in Chongqing shows that the sales proportion of vehicles priced above 200,000 yuan increased to 39.1% in November 2025, up by 6.3 percentage points from July 2025 [1]. Group 2: Profit Projections - The estimated profit increase of 15.9 billion yuan for the passenger car industry in 2026 is based on the assumption that domestic terminal sales will remain flat year-on-year [1]. - The theoretical profit space for different price segments is projected to grow as follows: 0 billion yuan for under 100,000 yuan, 0.3 billion yuan for 100,000-150,000 yuan, 0.7 billion yuan for 150,000-200,000 yuan, and 2.5 billion yuan for above 200,000 yuan [1]. - The total amount of trade-in subsidies is expected to decline by approximately 30 billion yuan in 2026, but the subsidies for vehicles priced above 150,000 yuan will increase by about 14 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the passenger vehicle chain include Geely Automobile, BYD, Chery Automobile, and others for right-side opportunities, while Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile are suggested for left-side opportunities [3]. - Companies showing potential turning points include SAIC Motor [3]. - In the upstream and downstream chains, recommended stocks include Minth Group, Yinlun Machinery, and others for right-side opportunities, while Yongda Automobile and New Coordinates are suggested for left-side opportunities [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Open Source Securities indicates that GF Securities' placement of H-shares and issuance of convertible bonds will dilute total shares by 4% and H-shares by 19%, which is beneficial for international business in the medium to long term [1] Group 1 - The placement and issuance of convertible bonds will result in a 19% dilution of H-shares and a 4% dilution of total share capital [1] - The raised funds will be entirely used to increase capital for the company's overseas subsidiaries, supporting the development of international business [1] - Short-term pressure on stock prices, particularly in the Hong Kong market, is expected, but medium to long-term benefits for overseas business development and overall return on equity (ROE) are anticipated [1] Group 2 - The company’s fund management division holds a solid position in the industry and is expected to benefit from the beta of the cyclical fund market following a bull market [1] - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan Securities has reported that GF Securities plans to raise over 6 billion HKD through H-share placement and issuance of zero-coupon convertible bonds, which will be fully used to increase capital for its overseas subsidiaries [1] Group 1: Fundraising and Capital Strengthening - The fundraising, if successful, will effectively strengthen the company's capital position [1] - The capital raised will support the company's international business expansion [1] - The company is expected to see improvements in operational performance and industry ranking as a result [1] Group 2: Asset Management and Ratings - The company's asset management business advantages remain solid [1] - The refinancing will enhance both capital and international business capabilities [1] - The firm maintains a "buy" rating for GF Securities' A-shares and H-shares [1]

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the vehicle trade-in policy to a "proportional subsidy" will significantly benefit mid-to-high-end vehicles, with an expected profit increase of 15.9 billion yuan for the passenger car industry in 2026 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impacts - The new policy, effective from December 30, 2025, includes a scrapping subsidy of 12% for new energy vehicles and 10% for fuel vehicles, with maximum subsidies of 20,000 yuan and 15,000 yuan respectively [1]. - The trade-in subsidy will provide 8% for new energy vehicles and 6% for fuel vehicles, with maximum subsidies of 15,000 yuan and 13,000 yuan respectively [1]. Group 2: Profit Projections - Based on data from Chongqing, the proportional subsidy is expected to increase the profit of the passenger car industry by 15.9 billion yuan in 2026, with profit growth in different price segments projected as follows: 0 yuan for under 100,000 yuan, 300 million yuan for 100,000-150,000 yuan, 2.9 billion yuan for 150,000-200,000 yuan, and 12.8 billion yuan for above 200,000 yuan [2][3]. - The total amount of trade-in subsidies is projected to decline by approximately 30 billion yuan in 2026, but the subsidy amount for vehicles priced above 150,000 yuan is expected to increase by about 14 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various companies within the passenger vehicle supply chain, including Geely, BYD, Chery, and others as potential investment opportunities [4]. - Companies positioned for growth include SAIC Motor, while others like Great Wall Motors and Changan Automobile are identified as left-side targets [4].