股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年9月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 山東晨鳴紙業集團股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月30日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 000488 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,706,765,684 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,706,765,684 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,706,765,684 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,706,765,684 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the price of double-offset paper may hit a new low and enter the era starting with "3", in the short term, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the futures price of double-offset paper, and the consensus expectation may reverse [3][7][51]. - The current futures price of double - offset paper is in a state of "low valuation + short - term bullish drivers + medium - to - long - term bearishness". Downward trading has limited value, and short - term traders can consider buying on dips, with an expected price fluctuation range of 4,100 - 4,500 yuan/ton [4][53]. Summary by Directory 1.上市以来的行情回顾 - After listing, the futures price of double - offset paper has maintained an overall oscillating trend, with the fluctuation range generally concentrated between 4,100 - 4,300 yuan/ton. The current futures market has fully priced in the long - term oversupply expectation, but this long - term downward pressure has not been transmitted to the spot market. The quotes of mainstream brands are relatively firm, and the decline is relatively limited. The expected return from selling for delivery currently cannot cover the opportunity cost in the spot market [8][51]. 2. 空头的核心逻辑是什么？ 2.1 产能持续投放 - In the medium to long term, the industry's production capacity has been continuously increasing, leading to severe overcapacity. The overall industry production capacity is estimated to be in the range of 16 - 18 million tons. It is expected that 950,000 tons of cultural paper will be put into production in the second half of 2025, accounting for about 5% - 6% of the current production capacity, and 1.43 million tons in 2026. Additionally, a southern paper mill plans to put into production a double - offset paper production line with a capacity of 1.2 million tons from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027 [14]. 2.2 需求见顶下滑 - The consumption of double - offset paper is mainly affected by the "one textbook and one supplementary material" policy and the population cycle. From January to July 2025, the cumulative consumption of double - offset paper was 4.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%. Grassroots research shows that the consumption of off - campus supplementary teaching materials has decreased by 30% - 50% in different provinces. The number of compulsory education students has declined, and this downward trend is expected to continue in 2025 [16]. 2.3 晨鸣复工影响 - Recently, Shouguang Chenming has accelerated its resumption of work and production. After the successful start - up of Factory 6, the Meilun Chemical Pulp Factory and the paper production lines of Factories 5 and 9 have also been successfully put into operation. Factory 6 has a production capacity of about 160,000 tons, Factory 5 about 500,000 tons, Factory 9 about 400,000 tons, and the pulp line about 1.2 million tons. Other paper production lines will also be gradually started, increasing the overall industry supply pressure [18]. 2.4 成本和价格的负反馈 - The cost of double - offset paper includes raw materials (wood pulp) and papermaking costs, which are greatly affected by factors such as formula, wood pulp price, and integration level. As paper prices decline, paper mills have adjusted their formulas to reduce costs. The mainstream cost - reduction paths include reducing the proportion of commercial pulp and increasing the proportion of chemimechanical pulp, as well as reducing the proportion of softwood pulp and increasing the proportion of chemimechanical pulp and hardwood pulp. The estimated cash cost of mainstream natural - white double - offset paper is in the range of 3,600 - 4,200 yuan/ton. If a company has a high degree of integration, it can still make a profit [21][22]. 3. 是否存在尚未交易的潜在利多？ 3.1 教辅教材需求的边际改善 - The consumption of double - offset paper used for supplementary teaching materials has obvious seasonal characteristics. September to November is the peak season for tendering of supplementary teaching materials. Usually, the consumption of double - offset paper shows a seasonal month - on - month improvement during this period, and prices tend to have a phased rebound around the National Day. In 2024, the price did not rebound significantly due to the impact of policies and population. Since September 2025, the weekly sales volume of double - offset paper has increased from 157,000 tons to 167,000 tons, showing an obvious month - on - month improvement [25][28]. 3.2 浆价提涨带动预期有所改变 - In the short term, the price of imported hardwood pulp has been continuously rising, and the downward space for softwood pulp prices is limited, which has changed the bearish sentiment in the downstream market. The current pulp price is close to the full cost of Suzano's pulp. South American pulp companies led by Suzano have a strong willingness to raise prices and have started to actively cut production to support prices. Since the second quarter of 2025, many pulp mills have shut down or plan to shut down in the future due to economic reasons, and the shutdown capacity of commercial pulp has increased rapidly. The inventory days of softwood pulp in pulp mills are at a historical high, while the inventory days of hardwood pulp are relatively low, with certain price - increasing ability. Recently, as the price of hardwood pulp has rebounded from the bottom, the profit of paper mills has further declined, which has changed the expectations of some practitioners and weakened the bearish sentiment, thus boosting demand to some extent [31][36][40]. 3.3 交割利润修复 - In the short term, the 2601 contract is still far from the delivery date. It is believed that the paper price is unlikely to continue to decline in the short term, and the futures - spot convergence may be achieved by the futures price moving closer to the spot price. Based on the current delivery cost calculation, the current futures price is significantly undervalued. As the delivery date approaches, the repair of delivery profit may drive the futures price to rebound [42][43]. 3.4 长期变量中仍有利多 - There is still room for improvement in per - capita consumption. China's per - capita consumption of double - offset paper is about two - thirds of that in Japan. The decline in double - offset paper consumption cannot be linearly extrapolated, and the degree of overcapacity may be overestimated. Supplementary teaching materials are only one of the end - products of double - offset paper, and the decline in their consumption does not represent weak demand for social books. As of 2023, the overall print volume of social books has still been increasing. As of August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the added value of China's printing and recording media reproduction industry above the designated size was +1.3%. Double - offset paper machines can be used to produce other paper types, which may lead to an overestimation of the effective production capacity of double - offset paper and an underestimation of the overall capacity utilization rate [44][47][49]. 4. 总结和策略展望 - Although the price of double - offset paper may hit a new low, in the short term, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the futures price. The short - term marginal improvement of short - term variables may drive the futures price to have a phased rebound before a significant decline. The current futures price is in a state of "low valuation + short - term bullish drivers + medium - to - long - term bearishness", and short - term traders can consider buying on dips, with an expected price fluctuation range of 4,100 - 4,500 yuan/ton [53].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the AH premium rates of various companies, indicating significant discrepancies between their A-shares and H-shares, with Northeast Electric (00042) leading with a premium rate of 864.29% [1] AH Premium Rate Rankings - The top three companies with the highest AH premium rates are: - Northeast Electric (00042): 864.29% - Andeli Juice (02218): 227.40% - Hongye Futures (03678): 225.67% [1] - The bottom three companies with the lowest AH premium rates are: - Ningde Times (03750): -12.07% - Heng Rui Medicine (01276): -3.97% - Zijin Mining (02899): 4.14% [1] Deviation Value Rankings - The top three companies with the highest deviation values are: - Northeast Electric (00042): 74.37% - Changfei Optical Fiber (06869): 24.77% - Zhaoyan New Drug (06127): 22.94% [1] - The bottom three companies with the lowest deviation values are: - Longpan Technology (02465): -25.07% - Qin Port Shares (03369): -19.33% - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138): -15.04% [1] Detailed AH Stock Premium and Deviation Data - The report provides detailed tables showing the premium rates and deviation values for the top and bottom AH stocks, indicating significant variations in market perception and valuation between A-shares and H-shares [1][2]

北京商报讯(记者张君花)9月22日，晨鸣纸业在投资者互动平台表示，目前公司寿光基地已全部恢复生 产；黄冈基地、江西基地二厂正常生产；江西基地一厂、吉林基地、湛江基地当前仍在停机检修，争取 尽快恢复生产。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 山東晨鳴紙業集團股份有限公司 SHANDONG CHENMING PAPER HOLDINGS LIMITED* 中國，山東 二零二五年九月十六日 於本公告日期，執行董事為胡長青先生、李興春先生、李峰先生及李偉先先 生；非執行董事為韓亭德先生及李傳軒先生；及獨立非執行董事為尹美群女士、 孫劍非先生、楊彪先生及李志輝先生。 * 僅供識別 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：1812） 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條而作出。 茲載列山東晨鳴紙業集團股份有限公司在深圳證券交易所網站刊登日期為二零二 五年九月十五日的「山東晨鳴紙業集團股份有限公司投資者關係活動記錄表」，僅 供參閱。 承董事會命 山東晨鳴紙業集團股份有限公司 胡長青 主席 编号：2025-003 证券代码：000488、200488 证券简称：ST 晨鸣、ST 晨鸣 B 山东晨鸣纸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively working on resuming production, managing debt, and optimizing asset disposal to improve its financial situation and operational efficiency [2][3]. Group 1: Production and Operations - The company has five major production bases: Shouguang, Zhanjiang, Huanggang, Jiangxi, and Jilin. Currently, the Shouguang base is fully operational, while the Huanggang base and Jiangxi second factory are producing normally. However, the Jiangxi first factory, Jilin base, and Zhanjiang base are still under maintenance [2]. - The company aims to resume production at the halted bases as soon as possible [2]. Group 2: Financial Support and Debt Management - A capital injection of 1 billion yuan from the government platform has been fully received, along with a 2.31 billion yuan syndicated loan that has been approved, with the first tranche already disbursed [2]. - The company has implemented measures to address its debt issues, including extending loan terms and reducing interest rates, which has lowered financial costs by approximately 700 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Asset Disposal and Efficiency - The company is focusing on revitalizing and disposing of existing assets, particularly non-core assets, and has established an asset management center to enhance disposal efficiency [2]. - The disposal of property assets located in key cities such as Shanghai, Jinan, and Shenzhen is being accelerated [2]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The paper industry has seen concentrated new capacity additions, leading to supply-demand imbalances. However, the long-term outlook is positive due to the "dual carbon" strategy and improved domestic market conditions, which are expected to enhance industry profitability and market concentration [3].

Group 1: Production Recovery - The company has five major production bases: Shouguang, Zhanjiang, Huanggang, Jiangxi, and Jilin. Currently, the Shouguang base has fully resumed operations, while Huanggang and Jiangxi's second plant are in normal production. The first plant in Jiangxi, Jilin, and Zhanjiang bases are still under maintenance, with efforts to resume production as soon as possible [2] - The funding required for resuming operations has been secured, with a capital injection of 1 billion CNY from the government and a completed approval for a syndicated loan of 2.31 billion CNY, with the first tranche already disbursed [2][3] Group 2: Government Support - Local governments have established a task force to facilitate production recovery, including forming a debt committee and coordinating the issuance of a 2.31 billion CNY loan specifically for resuming operations. Measures include maintaining existing credit lines and providing support such as loan extensions and interest rate reductions [3] Group 3: Asset Management - The company is actively working to manage and dispose of non-core assets, with an asset management center established to enhance efficiency. The disposal of properties located in key cities like Shanghai, Jinan, and Shenzhen is being accelerated [3] Group 4: Financial Challenges - The company is addressing its debt issues by negotiating extensions and interest reductions with most financial institutions, which has already reduced financial costs by approximately 700 million CNY. Further efforts include accelerating the disposal of non-core assets and enhancing the collection of receivables [3] - The company plans to leverage operational cash flow post-resumption to continue reducing debt levels [3] Group 5: Industry Outlook - The paper industry is facing challenges due to increased production capacity and weakened terminal demand, leading to supply-demand imbalances. However, with the implementation of the "dual carbon" strategy and policies aimed at reducing competition, the industry is expected to see improved conditions in the medium to long term. The overall performance is anticipated to gradually recover as domestic demand policies take effect [4]

Core Viewpoint - The arrival of the Panama-flagged cargo ship "Baohua Bangkok" carrying 32,000 tons of imported wood chips marks the resumption of international supply chain operations for Chenming Paper Group, contributing to the revitalization of the Weifang Port's foreign trade dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Chenming Paper Group is a leading paper manufacturer in China and ranks among the top 50 paper companies globally, importing approximately 4 million tons of wood chips annually from countries like Vietnam and the Philippines [1]. - The resumption of operations at Chenming Paper is crucial not only for the company's growth but also for stabilizing the supply chain and promoting regional economic development [1][6]. Group 2: Port Operations - Weifang Port has an average annual import and export of about 1,500 foreign trade vessels and handles approximately 7 million tons of foreign trade goods, with container throughput averaging around 800,000 TEU [3]. - In the first half of 2025, the port saw a 14.5% year-on-year increase in international vessel traffic, with 822 vessels entering and leaving the port [3]. - The port's cargo types cover 68 categories, including iron ore, coal, steel, and wood chips, with liquid cargo operations supporting a modern industrial system in the coastal area [3]. Group 3: Shipping Routes and Logistics - Weifang Port operates 16 container shipping routes, including 4 for foreign trade, creating a network that connects the Bohai Sea and the Yangtze River Delta [4]. - New shipping routes, such as "Weifang-Australia" for iron ore, are expected to increase foreign trade cargo by 800,000 tons annually, saving over 16 million yuan in land transport costs for local enterprises [4]. - The port has implemented measures to enhance vessel safety and efficiency, including a "green channel" for expedited processing and the use of drones for patrols [4][6].

Group 1 - The paper industry stocks experienced a rise in early trading, with Lee & Man Paper (02314) up 5.17% to HKD 3.05, Nine Dragons Paper (02689) up 4.63% to HKD 5.88, and Chenming Paper (01812) up 4.6% to HKD 0.91 [1] - Major paper manufacturers, including Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Lee & Man Paper, and Wuzhou Special Paper, have announced price increases for certain products starting in early September [1] - Since August, domestic paper manufacturers have implemented multiple rounds of price hikes, indicating a trend towards rising prices in the industry [1] Group 2 - According to Industrial Securities, as the fourth quarter approaches the traditional peak season, both pulp and paper prices are expected to continue rising, supported by anti-involution policies [1] - Huashan Securities previously noted that under the national "anti-involution" backdrop and supply-side structural reforms, the packaging paper industry may see the exit of outdated production capacity, improving supply-demand balance and driving up paper prices, which would enhance profitability for paper companies [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong paper industry stocks collectively rose, with Chenming Paper up 4.6%, Lee & Man Paper up over 3%, and Nine Dragons Paper up over 2% [1] - Major paper manufacturers such as Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Lee & Man Paper, and Wuzhou Special Paper announced price increases for certain products in early September, indicating a potential last opportunity for price hikes before the traditional peak season [1] - The paper packaging industry is facing challenges due to an imbalance in supply and demand as new production capacities come online, making it difficult for companies like Nine Dragons to maintain stability in a volatile market [1] Group 2 - Shanying Paper announced a maintenance shutdown plan during the National Day holiday, affecting 12 paper lines across multiple bases in Anhui, Zhejiang, Central China, Fujian, Guangdong, and Jilin, with shutdown durations ranging from 4 to 8 days, concentrated from September 29 to October 6 [1]