机构 核心观点 五矿期货 苯乙烯价格或将反弹 8月25日盘中，苯乙烯期货主力合约呈现窄幅震荡，最低下探至7318.00元。截止发稿，苯乙烯主力合约 报7340.00元，跌幅0.08%。 国投安信期货 苯乙烯基本面对价格仍有拖累作用 苯乙烯期货主力微跌0.08%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 五矿期货：苯乙烯价格或将反弹 现货价格上涨，期货价格上涨，基差走弱。分析如下：市场宏观情绪较好，成本端支撑尚存。目前BZN 价差处同期较低水平，向上修复空间较大。成本端纯苯开工中性震荡，供应量依然偏宽。供应端乙苯脱 氢利润上涨，苯乙烯开工持续上行。苯乙烯港口库存持续大幅累库；季节性淡季尾声，需求端三S整体 开工率震荡上涨。长期BZN或将修复，港口库存高位持续累库，带库存去库拐点出现，苯乙烯价格或将 反弹。 国投安信期货；苯乙烯基本面对价格仍有拖累作用 苯乙烯期货主力合约均线系统粘合，整体延续整理格局。基本面上，成本端震荡偏弱，对苯乙烯缺乏提 振，但保持底部支撑。苯乙烯自身供需仍以宽平衡状态为主，码头大概率仍有累库表现，苯乙烯基本面 对价格仍有拖累作用。 ...

每经AI快讯，8月12日，碳酸锂主力合约午后大幅反弹，涨幅扩大至逾8%，现报87540元/吨，此前涨幅 一度缩窄至3.34%。 ...

以山东地区为基准，今日 32%离子膜碱收于 810 元/吨，较上期价格环比+2.33%。主力下游企业采购液 碱价格上调且受液氯补贴影响，区域内企业开工负荷变动，供应量减少，液碱价格上调。 【市场状况分析】 期货研究 烧碱：短期偏强震荡 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2408 810 2531 123 2025 年 7 月 9 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 近期烧碱期货价格反弹，主要因液氯降价速度超预期，未来因液氯扰动导致烧碱被动减产可能性上升。 短期现货方面出现反弹，主要因价格低位，刺激市场阶段性补库需求。 从基本面看，7 月烧碱检修产能较 6 月减少明显，7 月检修主要集中在西北、华东，山东前期检修装置 将陆续重启。同时，烧碱 6-7 月份新增产能或达到 110 万吨，因此供应压力仍较大。需求端，非铝需求支撑 偏弱，氧化铝的烧碱库存偏高，不过出口方向支撑尚可，低价补库意愿较强。成本端，虽然 7 月份电价继续 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Recent short - term drivers for caustic soda have significantly slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded due to the faster - than - expected decline in liquid chlorine prices. The possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda caused by liquid chlorine disturbances in the future has increased. In the short term, the spot price has rebounded due to low prices stimulating the market's phased replenishment demand, but the sustainability of replenishment may be limited [3]. - In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The previously maintained units in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity of caustic soda from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high [3]. - On the demand side, the support from non - aluminum demand is weak, and the alumina inventory of caustic soda is high, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to replenish at low prices is strong. Although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline in liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the cost of caustic soda [3]. - Affected by liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation is repaired under the condition of rising costs. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of liquid chlorine on the supply of caustic soda. If there are substantial production cuts or load reductions, a bullish view can be taken [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2380, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 770, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong was converted to the futures price of 2406, and the basis was 26 [1]. Spot News - On July 7, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine at Shandong Xinfa decreased by 150, with an ex - factory price of - 450 yuan, and the liquid chlorine plan for the next day was reported [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The short - term drivers for caustic soda have slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded. The short - term spot price has rebounded, but the replenishment may not be sustainable. The supply pressure is high, the non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina inventory is high, the export support is good, and the cost has increased due to the decline in liquid chlorine [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views For Caustic Soda - Recently, the short - driving force for caustic soda has significantly slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded due to the faster - than - expected price drop of liquid chlorine. There is an increasing possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda caused by liquid chlorine disturbances in the future. The short - term spot price has rebounded due to low prices stimulating the market's phased replenishment demand, but the sustainability may be limited [5]. - From a fundamental perspective, the overhaul capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased significantly compared to June. The overhauls in July are mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China, and the previously overhauled units in Shandong will gradually restart. Meanwhile, the new production capacity of caustic soda from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high. On the demand side, the non - aluminum demand support is weak, and the alumina's caustic soda inventory is high, but the export direction has good support, with a strong willingness to replenish at low prices. In terms of cost, although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine led to an increase in the cost of caustic soda [5]. - In summary, affected by liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation has been repaired under the condition of increased costs, but the space for continuous rebound may be limited. In the later stage, focus on the transmission impact of liquid chlorine on caustic soda supply. If there are substantial production cuts or load reductions, it can be treated bullishly [5]. - Strategy: Weiqiao slightly increased the price, and the market shifted from an 8 - 10 inverse spread to a positive spread, but considering the off - season demand and warehouse receipt factors, the space will be limited. If there are substantial production cuts on the supply side in the future, it is beneficial for the peak - season contracts. A 10 - 1 positive spread or selling put options can be considered [5]. For PVC - From a fundamental perspective, the profit of the current chlor - alkali integration in the Northwest is gradually declining, but there is still a small profit. Looking at the second half of the year, the driving force for production cuts on the supply side is insufficient, and the structure of high production and high inventory of PVC is difficult to ease. Therefore, the market will still short the chlor - alkali profit in the later stage, but the short sentiment has weakened due to the rectification of the involution [6]. - The high - production structure is difficult to change in the short term: The overhaul volume of PVC is lower than that in the same period of 2023, and the high - production pattern continues. On the one hand, the chlor - alkali cost has declined. On the other hand, the demand for caustic soda in 2025 has good support, maintaining relatively high profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain compensates for chlorine with alkali, which also increases the difficulty of large - scale production cuts of PVC due to losses. In addition, there will still be a lot of production capacity put into operation in the future, especially in June - July, facing the release of new production capacity, with an expected production of 1.1 million tons. The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term [6]. - The pressure of high inventory persists, and the export demand can only relieve it periodically: In 2025, the competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased. Exports will still be affected by India's anti - dumping duty increase and BIS certification. India's PVC import BIS policy may be postponed for 6 months, and the Indian Trade Remedy Authority may make a final decision on the anti - dumping investigation of imported PVC in the first half of July. Therefore, the sustainability of PVC exports in the later stage remains to be observed. In terms of domestic demand, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises' willingness to stock up is low [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of the cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,406 yuan/ton [9]. - The 09 basis of caustic soda has weakened, and the 8 - 10 month spread has strengthened [18]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of caustic soda was 1.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 51.8%. Among them, the cumulative export to Indonesia from January to May was 620,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.4%. It is expected that the export demand for caustic soda will continue to be good in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to the stocking rhythm of traders and downstream customers. It is estimated that the export of caustic soda in 2025 will increase by at least 30% year - on - year, and the annual export may exceed 4 million tons [22]. - The export support for high - concentration caustic soda will be reflected in the price difference between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda. The willingness to replenish stocks in the export direction at FOB of 380 - 390 US dollars is strong [26]. - The spot price has continued to decline, and the stocking demand of traders in South China is weak, resulting in limited expansion of the arbitrage space [31]. - The price difference between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, which is negative for caustic soda [35]. 2. Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and inventory. This week, the domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 80.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 2% [38]. - The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 384,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 1.58% and a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. This week, the storage - capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country was 22.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72%. Except for the storage - capacity ratios in North China, Northeast China, and South China showing a downward trend, the storage - capacity ratios in the Northwest, Central China, East China, and Southwest China increased week - on - week [40]. - Pay attention to the overhaul scale from July to August. At the beginning of July, the overhaul capacity of large factories in Shandong was resumed [42]. - In 2025, there will still be a lot of production capacity for caustic soda to be put into operation, but considering the continuous losses of chlorine - consuming downstream industries, especially PVC, the overall production capacity expansion may be less than expected. The capacity increase may be about 2%. Pay attention to the production capacity put into operation by Tianjin Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Bay Chemical from June to July [43][46]. - Liquid chlorine is stable, the price of caustic soda is falling, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in the past three years [47]. - Among the chlorine - consuming downstream industries, the operating rate of propylene oxide has rebounded, but the profit is still at a low level; the operating rate of epichlorohydrin has declined, and the glycerol - method profit is in a loss state; the operating rates of dichloromethane and trichloromethane have decreased month - on - month [52][58][63]. 3. Caustic Soda Demand - The operating rate of alumina has increased month - on - month, the inventory has increased, and the profit has declined. The alumina device has resumed production, and the output has increased. The key in the second half of the year is whether the alumina production capacity put into operation can drive a new round of demand expansion. Pay attention to the production - capacity put - into - operation time of Weiqiao's 1 million tons, Wenfeng's third - line 1.6 million tons, and Guangxi Guangtou's 1 million tons [69][72][73]. - The pulp industry's production capacity continues to expand, but it is in the off - season of terminal demand. The operating rate of the finished - paper industry is lower than the same period last year [74][84]. - The operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing have declined, and the short - term demand is weak [85]. - The operating rate of the water - treatment industry has decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of the ternary precursor industry is stable [89][91]. - The caustic soda balance sheet shows different supply - demand differences under different demand scenarios and corresponding operating rates [96]. 4. PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis has strengthened, and the 9 - 1 month spread has fluctuated weakly [99]. 5. PVC Supply and Demand - The operating rate of PVC has decreased month - on - month but has not reached the level of production cuts in 2023. There will be more overhauls in the Northwest from July to August in 2025 [104][106]. - Currently, there is new production capacity in the PVC industry. By 2025, 2.1 million tons of production capacity will be put into operation, with more concentrated production - capacity releases in the second half of the year. Most of the ethylene - method production - capacity releases have a relatively high certainty. There will be concentrated production - capacity releases of PVC from June to July, with an expected 1.1 million tons [107]. - The profit of the integrated devices in the Northwest is acceptable. In 2025, special attention should be paid to the profit of caustic soda. The chlor - alkali industry chain's practice of compensating for chlorine with alkali will be a long - term trend, which increases the difficulty of large - scale production cuts of PVC due to losses. The decline in coal prices has led to a decrease in costs, and the chlor - alkali integrated devices in the Northwest have always had profits in the first half of the year [109][112]. - PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced their inventory, while the social inventory has increased. The operating rate of PVC downstream industries has decreased month - on - month and is weaker than the same period last year [114][118]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of PVC was 1.6985 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 56.07%. Among them, the export to India was 763,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 31.6%. India is still the most important destination for China's PVC exports. However, the later PVC exports may be affected by policies. The Indian Trade Remedy Authority may make a final decision on the anti - dumping investigation of imported PVC in the first half of July, so the sustainability of PVC exports in the later stage remains to be observed [125]. - The number of PVC warehouse receipts has not increased significantly [127].

期货热点追踪 行业亏损倒逼减产，玻璃企业自救，期货价格大幅拉升！本轮反弹还能持续多久？ 相关链接 ...

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