1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Next week (January 19 - 23, 2026), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures may rebound. For soybean meal, the bearish impact of the January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada consultations has been priced in. After these factors are digested and with no further negative news, the price of soybean meal is expected to rebound from low levels. For soybean No. 1, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures price depends on the sentiment of the soybean market [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Performance Last Week (January 12 - 16, 2026) - US soybean futures prices first declined and then rose. The decline was due to the bearish USDA report, and the rise was due to Chinese purchases and the increase in US soybean oil prices (as the US may set the 2026 biofuel blending quota in March). From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main US soybean contract for March 2026 fell 0.61%, and the main US soybean meal contract for March 2026 fell 4.58% [2]. - Domestic soybean meal futures prices were weak, and soybean No. 1 futures prices fluctuated. For soybean meal, it was affected by the bearish January USDA report and the progress of China - Canada trade consultations. For soybean No. 1, it was influenced by the bearish atmosphere in the soybean market, but the stable and slightly strong spot price provided support. From a weekly K - line perspective, in the week of January 16, the main soybean meal contract m2605 fell 2.12%, and the main soybean No. 1 contract a2605 fell 1.23% [2]. 3.2 International Soybean Market Fundamentals Last Week - **Chinese Purchases**: China continued to purchase US soybeans, which was a positive factor. From January 12 to 16, the total number of large - scale orders of US soybeans sold to China, Mexico, and unknown destinations was about 1.4 million tons (mostly for delivery in 2025/26 and a few for 2026/27). For example, on January 13, 168,000 tons were sold to China and 152,400 tons to Mexico; on January 14, 334,000 tons were sold to China; on January 15, 204,000 tons were sold to China and 545,000 tons to unknown destinations [2]. - **US Soybean Export Sales**: In the week of January 8, 2026, US soybean net sales increased month - on - month, which was a moderately positive factor. In terms of shipments, in the 2025/26 season, US soybean exports were about 1.64 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year increase of about 16%; the cumulative exports in the 2025/26 season were about 17.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 42%. In terms of sales, the weekly net sales of the current season (2025/26) were about 2.06 million tons (880,000 tons in the previous week), and the weekly net sales of the next season (2026/27) were 10,000 tons (0 in the previous week), with a total of about 2.07 million tons (880,000 tons in the previous week). The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current season (2025/26) were about 1.22 million tons (470,000 tons in the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 8.12 million tons [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week, which was a negative factor. As of the week of January 16, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [2]. - **USDA Reports**: The January USDA reports were bearish. The ending stocks of US and Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season were raised, while those of Argentina and China remained unchanged. As of the quarter ending December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was about 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of about 6%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 3.25 billion bushels. The inventory data in both USDA reports were higher than expected, having a short - term bearish impact on soybean prices [2]. - **South American Weather Forecast**: According to the January 17 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (January 18 - February 1), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and the temperature will be basically normal. In the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina, the precipitation will be less, and the temperature will be higher in some periods (January 24 - February 1). Currently, the weather in the Argentine产区 is a positive factor and should be closely monitored [2][4]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market Last Week - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week, and more long - term basis contracts were traded. As of the week of January 16, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal at major oil mills in China was about 670,000 tons, compared with about 360,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal at major oil mills was about 186,000 tons, compared with about 174,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of January 16, the average weekly basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 372 yuan/ton, compared with about 344 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 247 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. As of the week of January 9, the inventory of soybean meal at major oil mills in China was about 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 13% and a year - on - year increase of about 66% [5]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week of January 16, the weekly soybean crushing volume in China was about 1.99 million tons (1.77 million tons in the previous week and 2.41 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 55% (49% in the previous week and 68% in the same period last year). Next week (January 17 - 23), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.2 million tons (2.08 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 61% (58% in the same period last year) [5]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: All the imported soybeans in the auction were sold. On January 13, the National Grain Trading Center planned to auction 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans, all of which were successfully sold at an average price of 3,812 yuan/ton, with a premium of 0 - 170 yuan/ton [5]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market Last Week - **Soybean Price**: The soybean price was stable with a slight upward trend. In some parts of Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans (the mainstream purchase price of clean soybeans passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,280 - 4,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In some parts of Inner - Pass regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans (the mainstream retail price of medium - grade packaged "tower - selected" Northeast soybeans) was in the range of 4,640 - 4,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [6]. - **Farmer and Trader Behavior**: Farmers in the Northeast产区 were reluctant to sell, and the market was cautious. Many grass - roots farmers still expected prices to rise and asked for higher prices. Except for a few traders with orders who continued to purchase, most traders were cautious in purchasing and consumed their inventories, resulting in slow sales to the market. High prices restricted trading, and there was a situation of "high prices but no trading" in some markets [6]. - **Sales Area Situation**: The soybean price in the sales areas increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance was low. Many dealers said that the loading price at the origin increased, leading to an increase in the arrival cost and a corresponding adjustment in the selling price. However, limited by the low acceptance of the downstream market, the price increase was smaller than that at the origin. The new demand for terminal soy products was limited, which restricted the overall trading speed in the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - Stainless steel futures have reached a limit-up price of 13,885.00 yuan/ton, with a 4.99% increase on January 7 [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - New Lake Futures expects stainless steel prices to rebound following low nickel prices, despite weak downstream demand and high inventory levels [2] - Ruida Futures anticipates a strong adjustment in stainless steel prices, citing tightening raw material supply and declining export volumes, while noting that market purchasing interest remains low [3] - Dayue Futures predicts a strong oscillation in stainless steel prices, with a current increase in spot prices and a decrease in inventory, suggesting that short positions may wait [3]

Core Viewpoint - The glass futures prices have significantly increased, with the main contract FG2605 closing at 1087 yuan/ton, up 3.23% [6][7]. Group 1: Reasons for Price Increase - Continuous decline in glass prices has increased pressure on glass manufacturers, leading to some production lines undergoing maintenance, which will continue to reduce supply [6][7]. - The Hubei Environmental Protection Bureau has interviewed local glass companies, raising market expectations for future regulatory actions, which has improved market sentiment [7]. - There is a large volume of glass positions, indicating significant market speculation, and short-term macroeconomic expectations have improved, contributing to the price rebound [7]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Despite the rebound in glass futures prices due to improved macroeconomic and fundamental expectations, the glass production capacity remains ample, necessitating attention to whether supply and demand can reach a new balance [7]. - Glass production is currently at a historical low, and after the price rebound, monitoring production levels will be crucial [7]. - Overall, the glass market is expected to remain in a loose state in the medium to long term, suggesting that investors should consider entering for hedging after the price rebound [7].

Report Summary of PVC Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the reports [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market's high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, but supply - side production cuts during the maintenance peak season next year can be expected due to the continuous decline in caustic soda profits and historically low chlor - alkali comprehensive profits [2] - PVC futures prices rebounded starting from last Friday night driven by macro anti - involution sentiment and coking coal rebound. There may still be a small rebound space in the short term, but before the 03 contract, futures contracts face the situation of high开工 and weak demand [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - The 01 contract futures price is 4423, the East China spot price is 4400, the basis is - 23, and the 1 - 5 month spread is - 257 [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price center of the PVC spot market fluctuates and rises, but the trading atmosphere weakens during the session. The short - term adjustment of the PVC supply - demand fundamentals is limited, the total production reduction by enterprises is small, the market supply remains high, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The ex - warehouse cash price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC in East China is 4380 - 4500 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 4450 - 4600 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Market Situation Analysis - The rebound of PVC futures prices is driven by macro anti - involution sentiment and coking coal rebound. Some devices may cut production due to large losses, but winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and the scale of new maintenance may be limited. The game of large - scale production cut expectations may occur after the 03 contract. Also, PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery is large [1] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the price of double-offset paper may hit a new low and enter the era starting with "3", in the short term, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the futures price of double-offset paper, and the consensus expectation may reverse [3][7][51]. - The current futures price of double - offset paper is in a state of "low valuation + short - term bullish drivers + medium - to - long - term bearishness". Downward trading has limited value, and short - term traders can consider buying on dips, with an expected price fluctuation range of 4,100 - 4,500 yuan/ton [4][53]. Summary by Directory 1.上市以来的行情回顾 - After listing, the futures price of double - offset paper has maintained an overall oscillating trend, with the fluctuation range generally concentrated between 4,100 - 4,300 yuan/ton. The current futures market has fully priced in the long - term oversupply expectation, but this long - term downward pressure has not been transmitted to the spot market. The quotes of mainstream brands are relatively firm, and the decline is relatively limited. The expected return from selling for delivery currently cannot cover the opportunity cost in the spot market [8][51]. 2. 空头的核心逻辑是什么？ 2.1 产能持续投放 - In the medium to long term, the industry's production capacity has been continuously increasing, leading to severe overcapacity. The overall industry production capacity is estimated to be in the range of 16 - 18 million tons. It is expected that 950,000 tons of cultural paper will be put into production in the second half of 2025, accounting for about 5% - 6% of the current production capacity, and 1.43 million tons in 2026. Additionally, a southern paper mill plans to put into production a double - offset paper production line with a capacity of 1.2 million tons from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027 [14]. 2.2 需求见顶下滑 - The consumption of double - offset paper is mainly affected by the "one textbook and one supplementary material" policy and the population cycle. From January to July 2025, the cumulative consumption of double - offset paper was 4.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%. Grassroots research shows that the consumption of off - campus supplementary teaching materials has decreased by 30% - 50% in different provinces. The number of compulsory education students has declined, and this downward trend is expected to continue in 2025 [16]. 2.3 晨鸣复工影响 - Recently, Shouguang Chenming has accelerated its resumption of work and production. After the successful start - up of Factory 6, the Meilun Chemical Pulp Factory and the paper production lines of Factories 5 and 9 have also been successfully put into operation. Factory 6 has a production capacity of about 160,000 tons, Factory 5 about 500,000 tons, Factory 9 about 400,000 tons, and the pulp line about 1.2 million tons. Other paper production lines will also be gradually started, increasing the overall industry supply pressure [18]. 2.4 成本和价格的负反馈 - The cost of double - offset paper includes raw materials (wood pulp) and papermaking costs, which are greatly affected by factors such as formula, wood pulp price, and integration level. As paper prices decline, paper mills have adjusted their formulas to reduce costs. The mainstream cost - reduction paths include reducing the proportion of commercial pulp and increasing the proportion of chemimechanical pulp, as well as reducing the proportion of softwood pulp and increasing the proportion of chemimechanical pulp and hardwood pulp. The estimated cash cost of mainstream natural - white double - offset paper is in the range of 3,600 - 4,200 yuan/ton. If a company has a high degree of integration, it can still make a profit [21][22]. 3. 是否存在尚未交易的潜在利多？ 3.1 教辅教材需求的边际改善 - The consumption of double - offset paper used for supplementary teaching materials has obvious seasonal characteristics. September to November is the peak season for tendering of supplementary teaching materials. Usually, the consumption of double - offset paper shows a seasonal month - on - month improvement during this period, and prices tend to have a phased rebound around the National Day. In 2024, the price did not rebound significantly due to the impact of policies and population. Since September 2025, the weekly sales volume of double - offset paper has increased from 157,000 tons to 167,000 tons, showing an obvious month - on - month improvement [25][28]. 3.2 浆价提涨带动预期有所改变 - In the short term, the price of imported hardwood pulp has been continuously rising, and the downward space for softwood pulp prices is limited, which has changed the bearish sentiment in the downstream market. The current pulp price is close to the full cost of Suzano's pulp. South American pulp companies led by Suzano have a strong willingness to raise prices and have started to actively cut production to support prices. Since the second quarter of 2025, many pulp mills have shut down or plan to shut down in the future due to economic reasons, and the shutdown capacity of commercial pulp has increased rapidly. The inventory days of softwood pulp in pulp mills are at a historical high, while the inventory days of hardwood pulp are relatively low, with certain price - increasing ability. Recently, as the price of hardwood pulp has rebounded from the bottom, the profit of paper mills has further declined, which has changed the expectations of some practitioners and weakened the bearish sentiment, thus boosting demand to some extent [31][36][40]. 3.3 交割利润修复 - In the short term, the 2601 contract is still far from the delivery date. It is believed that the paper price is unlikely to continue to decline in the short term, and the futures - spot convergence may be achieved by the futures price moving closer to the spot price. Based on the current delivery cost calculation, the current futures price is significantly undervalued. As the delivery date approaches, the repair of delivery profit may drive the futures price to rebound [42][43]. 3.4 长期变量中仍有利多 - There is still room for improvement in per - capita consumption. China's per - capita consumption of double - offset paper is about two - thirds of that in Japan. The decline in double - offset paper consumption cannot be linearly extrapolated, and the degree of overcapacity may be overestimated. Supplementary teaching materials are only one of the end - products of double - offset paper, and the decline in their consumption does not represent weak demand for social books. As of 2023, the overall print volume of social books has still been increasing. As of August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the added value of China's printing and recording media reproduction industry above the designated size was +1.3%. Double - offset paper machines can be used to produce other paper types, which may lead to an overestimation of the effective production capacity of double - offset paper and an underestimation of the overall capacity utilization rate [44][47][49]. 4. 总结和策略展望 - Although the price of double - offset paper may hit a new low, in the short term, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the futures price. The short - term marginal improvement of short - term variables may drive the futures price to have a phased rebound before a significant decline. The current futures price is in a state of "low valuation + short - term bullish drivers + medium - to - long - term bearishness", and short - term traders can consider buying on dips, with an expected price fluctuation range of 4,100 - 4,500 yuan/ton [53].

Group 1 - Styrene futures showed a slight decline of 0.08%, with the main contract reported at 7340.00 yuan, down from a low of 7318.00 yuan during the trading session [1] - Market sentiment is relatively positive, with support from the cost side, indicating potential for price rebound in styrene [1] - The supply side remains ample, with ongoing increases in styrene production and rising profits from ethylbenzene dehydrogenation [1] Group 2 - The basic fundamentals of styrene are still exerting downward pressure on prices, with a weak cost side failing to provide significant support [2] - The overall supply-demand situation for styrene remains in a balanced state, with expectations of continued inventory accumulation at the docks [2] - The moving average system for styrene futures indicates a consolidation pattern, suggesting limited upward momentum in the near term [2]

Group 1 - The main contract for lithium carbonate experienced a significant rebound in the afternoon of August 12, with an increase of over 8% [1] - The current price of lithium carbonate is reported at 87,540 yuan per ton, after previously narrowing its gains to 3.34% [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is rated as 1, indicating a "偏强" (relatively strong) outlook [4][5]. 2) Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is expected to experience short - term strong and volatile trends. The impact of liquid chlorine on cost and supply is crucial. If substantial production cuts or load reductions occur, a bullish view can be taken [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price is 2531, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong is 810, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 123, and the base difference is provided on July 9, 2025 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda closed at 810 yuan/ton today, with a month - on - month increase of 2.33%. The purchase price of liquid caustic soda by major downstream enterprises has been raised, and due to the subsidy of liquid chlorine, the operating load of regional enterprises has changed, resulting in a decrease in supply and an increase in the price of liquid caustic soda [2]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The recent rebound in caustic soda futures prices is mainly due to the faster - than - expected decline in liquid chlorine prices, increasing the possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda. The short - term spot price rebound is due to low prices stimulating phased replenishment demand. - In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The previously shut - down plants in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high. - On the demand side, non - aluminum demand support is weak, and the caustic soda inventory of alumina is high, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to replenish at low prices is strong. - In terms of cost, although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine led to an increase in caustic soda costs. Overall, due to the impact of liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation is being repaired. The key is to focus on the impact of liquid chlorine on caustic soda supply. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Recent short - term drivers for caustic soda have significantly slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded due to the faster - than - expected decline in liquid chlorine prices. The possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda caused by liquid chlorine disturbances in the future has increased. In the short term, the spot price has rebounded due to low prices stimulating the market's phased replenishment demand, but the sustainability of replenishment may be limited [3]. - In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The previously maintained units in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity of caustic soda from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high [3]. - On the demand side, the support from non - aluminum demand is weak, and the alumina inventory of caustic soda is high, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to replenish at low prices is strong. Although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline in liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the cost of caustic soda [3]. - Affected by liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation is repaired under the condition of rising costs. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of liquid chlorine on the supply of caustic soda. If there are substantial production cuts or load reductions, a bullish view can be taken [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 7, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2380, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 770, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong was converted to the futures price of 2406, and the basis was 26 [1]. Spot News - On July 7, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine at Shandong Xinfa decreased by 150, with an ex - factory price of - 450 yuan, and the liquid chlorine plan for the next day was reported [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The short - term drivers for caustic soda have slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded. The short - term spot price has rebounded, but the replenishment may not be sustainable. The supply pressure is high, the non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina inventory is high, the export support is good, and the cost has increased due to the decline in liquid chlorine [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views For Caustic Soda - Recently, the short - driving force for caustic soda has significantly slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded due to the faster - than - expected price drop of liquid chlorine. There is an increasing possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda caused by liquid chlorine disturbances in the future. The short - term spot price has rebounded due to low prices stimulating the market's phased replenishment demand, but the sustainability may be limited [5]. - From a fundamental perspective, the overhaul capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased significantly compared to June. The overhauls in July are mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China, and the previously overhauled units in Shandong will gradually restart. Meanwhile, the new production capacity of caustic soda from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high. On the demand side, the non - aluminum demand support is weak, and the alumina's caustic soda inventory is high, but the export direction has good support, with a strong willingness to replenish at low prices. In terms of cost, although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine led to an increase in the cost of caustic soda [5]. - In summary, affected by liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation has been repaired under the condition of increased costs, but the space for continuous rebound may be limited. In the later stage, focus on the transmission impact of liquid chlorine on caustic soda supply. If there are substantial production cuts or load reductions, it can be treated bullishly [5]. - Strategy: Weiqiao slightly increased the price, and the market shifted from an 8 - 10 inverse spread to a positive spread, but considering the off - season demand and warehouse receipt factors, the space will be limited. If there are substantial production cuts on the supply side in the future, it is beneficial for the peak - season contracts. A 10 - 1 positive spread or selling put options can be considered [5]. For PVC - From a fundamental perspective, the profit of the current chlor - alkali integration in the Northwest is gradually declining, but there is still a small profit. Looking at the second half of the year, the driving force for production cuts on the supply side is insufficient, and the structure of high production and high inventory of PVC is difficult to ease. Therefore, the market will still short the chlor - alkali profit in the later stage, but the short sentiment has weakened due to the rectification of the involution [6]. - The high - production structure is difficult to change in the short term: The overhaul volume of PVC is lower than that in the same period of 2023, and the high - production pattern continues. On the one hand, the chlor - alkali cost has declined. On the other hand, the demand for caustic soda in 2025 has good support, maintaining relatively high profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain compensates for chlorine with alkali, which also increases the difficulty of large - scale production cuts of PVC due to losses. In addition, there will still be a lot of production capacity put into operation in the future, especially in June - July, facing the release of new production capacity, with an expected production of 1.1 million tons. The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term [6]. - The pressure of high inventory persists, and the export demand can only relieve it periodically: In 2025, the competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased. Exports will still be affected by India's anti - dumping duty increase and BIS certification. India's PVC import BIS policy may be postponed for 6 months, and the Indian Trade Remedy Authority may make a final decision on the anti - dumping investigation of imported PVC in the first half of July. Therefore, the sustainability of PVC exports in the later stage remains to be observed. In terms of domestic demand, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises' willingness to stock up is low [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of the cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,406 yuan/ton [9]. - The 09 basis of caustic soda has weakened, and the 8 - 10 month spread has strengthened [18]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of caustic soda was 1.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 51.8%. Among them, the cumulative export to Indonesia from January to May was 620,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.4%. It is expected that the export demand for caustic soda will continue to be good in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to the stocking rhythm of traders and downstream customers. It is estimated that the export of caustic soda in 2025 will increase by at least 30% year - on - year, and the annual export may exceed 4 million tons [22]. - The export support for high - concentration caustic soda will be reflected in the price difference between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda. The willingness to replenish stocks in the export direction at FOB of 380 - 390 US dollars is strong [26]. - The spot price has continued to decline, and the stocking demand of traders in South China is weak, resulting in limited expansion of the arbitrage space [31]. - The price difference between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, which is negative for caustic soda [35]. 2. Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and inventory. This week, the domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 80.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 2% [38]. - The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 384,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 1.58% and a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. This week, the storage - capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country was 22.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72%. Except for the storage - capacity ratios in North China, Northeast China, and South China showing a downward trend, the storage - capacity ratios in the Northwest, Central China, East China, and Southwest China increased week - on - week [40]. - Pay attention to the overhaul scale from July to August. At the beginning of July, the overhaul capacity of large factories in Shandong was resumed [42]. - In 2025, there will still be a lot of production capacity for caustic soda to be put into operation, but considering the continuous losses of chlorine - consuming downstream industries, especially PVC, the overall production capacity expansion may be less than expected. The capacity increase may be about 2%. Pay attention to the production capacity put into operation by Tianjin Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Bay Chemical from June to July [43][46]. - Liquid chlorine is stable, the price of caustic soda is falling, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in the past three years [47]. - Among the chlorine - consuming downstream industries, the operating rate of propylene oxide has rebounded, but the profit is still at a low level; the operating rate of epichlorohydrin has declined, and the glycerol - method profit is in a loss state; the operating rates of dichloromethane and trichloromethane have decreased month - on - month [52][58][63]. 3. Caustic Soda Demand - The operating rate of alumina has increased month - on - month, the inventory has increased, and the profit has declined. The alumina device has resumed production, and the output has increased. The key in the second half of the year is whether the alumina production capacity put into operation can drive a new round of demand expansion. Pay attention to the production - capacity put - into - operation time of Weiqiao's 1 million tons, Wenfeng's third - line 1.6 million tons, and Guangxi Guangtou's 1 million tons [69][72][73]. - The pulp industry's production capacity continues to expand, but it is in the off - season of terminal demand. The operating rate of the finished - paper industry is lower than the same period last year [74][84]. - The operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing have declined, and the short - term demand is weak [85]. - The operating rate of the water - treatment industry has decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of the ternary precursor industry is stable [89][91]. - The caustic soda balance sheet shows different supply - demand differences under different demand scenarios and corresponding operating rates [96]. 4. PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis has strengthened, and the 9 - 1 month spread has fluctuated weakly [99]. 5. PVC Supply and Demand - The operating rate of PVC has decreased month - on - month but has not reached the level of production cuts in 2023. There will be more overhauls in the Northwest from July to August in 2025 [104][106]. - Currently, there is new production capacity in the PVC industry. By 2025, 2.1 million tons of production capacity will be put into operation, with more concentrated production - capacity releases in the second half of the year. Most of the ethylene - method production - capacity releases have a relatively high certainty. There will be concentrated production - capacity releases of PVC from June to July, with an expected 1.1 million tons [107]. - The profit of the integrated devices in the Northwest is acceptable. In 2025, special attention should be paid to the profit of caustic soda. The chlor - alkali industry chain's practice of compensating for chlorine with alkali will be a long - term trend, which increases the difficulty of large - scale production cuts of PVC due to losses. The decline in coal prices has led to a decrease in costs, and the chlor - alkali integrated devices in the Northwest have always had profits in the first half of the year [109][112]. - PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced their inventory, while the social inventory has increased. The operating rate of PVC downstream industries has decreased month - on - month and is weaker than the same period last year [114][118]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of PVC was 1.6985 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 56.07%. Among them, the export to India was 763,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 31.6%. India is still the most important destination for China's PVC exports. However, the later PVC exports may be affected by policies. The Indian Trade Remedy Authority may make a final decision on the anti - dumping investigation of imported PVC in the first half of July, so the sustainability of PVC exports in the later stage remains to be observed [125]. - The number of PVC warehouse receipts has not increased significantly [127].