农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年11月22日星期六 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 生鲜软商品板块周度策略报告 摘要 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 本周白糖价格破位下跌。印度糖厂开榨增加，产地供应递增，我国 糖进口利润较好。云南、广西糖厂陆续开榨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price has rebounded, but the fundamentals at home and abroad remain unchanged. The supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season has been revised downward, which slightly boosts sentiment. However, Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and the weekly export volume in November decreased year - on - year. In China, new sugar is on the market, and the main contract is under pressure at 5500. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies and hold the strategy of selling call options [4]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price has continued to strengthen, and the spot price has followed, but the increase is weaker. The short - term rise is mainly due to the increase in warehouse receipt costs. The demand improvement of downstream wood - pulp paper is limited. Although the global pulp shipment volume increased in September, the shipment volume of softwood pulp to China decreased year - on - year, and China's pulp imports decreased in October. The market is advised to wait and see as the upside space is limited [5]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price remains stable, and the peak season has limited impact on the market. The cost is supported by the rising pulp futures price, but the upside is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range, and it is recommended to short near the resistance level [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The external market is weak. The USDA November report is bearish for US cotton, and the domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly. The demand improvement is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips [8][9]. Fresh Fruit Sector - **Apples**: The production and high - quality fruit rate have decreased year - on - year, which provides core support. The apple warehousing in the producing areas is progressing steadily. The 01 contract is expected to remain strong at a high level, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the 2605 contract cautiously [10]. - **Jujubes**: In November, the jujube futures price dropped significantly and then fluctuated at a low level. The supply has become more abundant, and the expectation of production reduction has failed. The supply and demand are expected to be strong in the fourth quarter. It is recommended that aggressive investors hold a reverse spread strategy or long positions in the 2605 contract with protective put options [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously as the inventory continues to decline year - on - year. For Jujube 2601, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the cooling of the production reduction expectation [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, short on rallies as the external market is under pressure and new sugar is on the market. For Pulp 2601, wait and see as the upside space is limited. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rallies as the demand improvement is limited. For Cotton 2601, hold short positions cautiously as the new cotton production is expected to increase and the consumption confidence is insufficient [20]. Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review a. Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 9040 | - 198 | - 2.14 | | Jujube 2601 | 9590 | - 555 | - 5.47 | | Sugar 2601 | 5457 | - 26 | - 0.47 | | Pulp 2511 | 4872 | 34 | 0.70 | | Offset Paper 2601 | 4278 | 8 | 0.19 | | Cotton 2601 | 13580 | - 15 | - 0.11 | [21] b. Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4 | 0.00 | 0.7 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5760 | 10 | - 560 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5500 | 0 | - 800 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 14806 | - 13 | - 590 | [24] Third Part: Sector Basis Situation There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the basis of Apple 1 - month contract, Jujube main - continuous contract, etc. [32][33][34] Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the spread between Apple 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 contracts, etc. [42][44][46] Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Sugar | 8622 | 901 | - 4507 | | Pulp | 220368 | - 1493 | - 157345 | | Cotton | 4401 | 221 | 1980 | [48] Sixth Part: Option - Related Data a. Option Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Option Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | The inventory continues to decline year - on - year, and the price is supported | Sell out - of - the - money put options | | Jujube 2601 | New jujube production increases and is concentrated on the market | Sell deep out - of - the - money call options | | Sugar 2601 | Cost support, but the fundamentals are bearish | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Cotton 2601 | The supply is temporarily abundant, and the price is expected to remain low | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Pulp 2601 | Cost support, but the upward driving force of the fundamentals is weak | Sell put options with a strike price of 4900 and call options with a strike price of 5300 | [50] b. Option Data for Each Variety There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the trading volume, open interest, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton options [52][53][56] Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation a. Apples - **Producing Area Weather**: There are references to figures of the minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi [60][61][62]. - **Export Situation**: There is a reference to the figure of the monthly apple export volume [63][65]. - **Inventory Situation**: There are references to figures of the weekly apple storage inventory in China, Shandong, and Shaanxi [66][68]. b. Jujubes There are references to figures of the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang Market [70]. c. Sugar There are references to figures of the national sugar industrial inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and the spot - futures spread of sugar [71][72][75]. d. Pulp There are references to figures of the pulp inventory in four domestic ports, the global producer's wood - pulp inventory days, and the weekly production of various types of paper [76][77][79]. e. Offset Paper There are references to figures of the capacity utilization rate, production, inventory, and apparent consumption of offset paper [88][89][91]. f. Cotton There are references to figures of the retail sales and inventory of clothing in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as the industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and production of cotton - related products in China [93][94][97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It indicates that most products are expected to show a trend of oscillation, with some products having specific tendencies such as corn being expected to oscillate strongly, and pigs expected to oscillate weakly [1][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils - **Viewpoint**: Malaysian palm oil inventory in October was slightly higher than expected, while market sentiment improved. The market is expected to oscillate, with macro and industrial factors influencing the trend [5]. - **Logic**: Last Friday, US soybeans oscillated upwards. Recently, the expected domestic imported soybean arrivals are at a relatively high level in the same period, and the speed of domestic soybean oil inventory reduction is expected to be slow. In terms of palm oil, the production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil in October increased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory was slightly higher than expected. In terms of rapeseed oil, as a large amount of Russian rapeseed comes on the market, the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the future [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: The double meal market oscillated, waiting for the guidance of the supply - demand report. It is expected that both US soybeans and domestic soybean meal will oscillate. One can buy on dips but not chase highs [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US government shutdown ended, and the supply - demand report may be released. The market expects that the US soybean yield may be lowered. Domestically, in the short term, the reduction of soybean meal inventory in oil mills is slow, and the spot and basis are weak. In the medium term, the procurement of December shipments is progressing, but the January imports are still at a loss. In the long term, the supply in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, and there may be a soybean gap in March 2026 [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: With downstream stocking and upstream reluctance to sell, the futures price broke through upwards. It is expected to oscillate strongly [7][8]. - **Logic**: Today, domestic corn prices mostly rose. On the supply side, farmers' reluctance to sell increased due to cold weather, and the selling pressure has not been realized. On the demand side, the demand for feed grains is concentrated in the Northeast, and the increase in trade costs further supports the price. In the fourth quarter, the market is still in the stage of new grain listing pressure, and the selling pressure after "freezing" needs attention [7][8]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price oscillates. It is expected to oscillate weakly, showing a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, in the short term, the supply of commercial pigs in November is still large. In the medium term, the number of pigs for slaughter in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is starting to decline, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026. In terms of demand, the ratio of meat to pig price has increased. In terms of inventory, the average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly following the macro - sentiment, and the sustainability needs attention. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating and highly elastic trend [9][11]. - **Logic**: The rubber market rebounded in line with the commodity rebound rhythm. The macro - sentiment was positive, and the valuation of RU was lower than NR. The supply in overseas producing areas was affected by weather, and the demand has not changed significantly recently [9][11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It has temporarily stabilized, but the raw material pressure is still relatively large. It is recommended to short on rallies [12][13]. - **Logic**: The BR market rebounded slightly following natural rubber. The price of butadiene has fallen rapidly and temporarily stabilized. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Although there is short - term support at the bottom, the market atmosphere is still cautious [12][13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuated narrowly and oscillated. In the short term, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range; in the long term, it may oscillate strongly [13]. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the improvement of Sino - US trade relations is beneficial to cotton imports and textile exports in the long term but has limited short - term impact. In terms of supply and demand, the estimated output of Xinjiang cotton has been lowered, and the cost supports the cotton price, but there is a lack of new positive factors. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly. In the medium - long term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the peak season of Brazilian sugar production and export has ended, and the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere has started. India, Thailand, and Brazil are all expected to increase production. Domestically, the sugar production in the new season is expected to increase, and the import is expected to be tightened, but the sugar price may decline as the new sugar supply increases [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures drive the spot, and the market is dominated by funds. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [15]. - **Logic**: The futures market is rising strongly, but the spot market shows insufficient follow - up. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the rise of packaging paper prices, the increase in import costs, and the expected good production and sales of white cards and cultural papers. The negative factors include low demand for softwood pulp, slow procurement by downstream enterprises, and the influence of warehouse receipts on pricing [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: Supported by tenders, the market has stabilized. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [16]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the new production capacity has increased the supply pressure, and the tender delay has limited support for the price. In the later stage, the concentrated start of tenders in November is expected to drive the price to stop falling and rebound, but the market may decline in December and January [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Domestic timber is being delivered successively, and the log market is operating at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [19]. - **Logic**: The spot market of logs is under downward pressure due to factors such as traders' active inventory reduction and weak sales of integrated materials. The foreign quotation of New Zealand logs has been lowered, but the trading volume is still poor. After the peak season, the inventory is expected to accumulate again, but the downward space is limited [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The pulp market is expected to remain weak, and it is recommended to treat it as a low - level oscillation. The pulp and offset paper futures prices are likely to continue an oscillating and bearish trend, and it is advisable to sell short at high prices [4][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Futures Fundamental Analysis - **Basic Situation**: In Shandong, pulp prices are stable. Downstream paper mills' price increases boost pulp prices, but the implementation of price increase letters needs further observation. Some pulp mills are under maintenance, reducing supply - side pressure. In September, the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines were about 21.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7% (compared to a 12% year - on - year increase in August), and cultural paper consumption did not continue the positive trend in August. High port inventories limit pulp prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, port de - stocking is lower than expected, and downstream procurement is cautious [4]. Double - Offset Paper Futures Fundamental Analysis - **Basic Situation**: In Shandong, double - offset paper prices are stable. Starting from November, many paper products from various manufacturers will increase in price by 200 yuan/ton, which is favorable for futures prices, and the futures prices continue an oscillating and slightly upward trend. It is recommended to continue to monitor the de - stocking situation [14]. Main Force Trends - For pulp, the short - side main force has increased positions, which is bearish. For double - offset paper, the short - side main force has also increased positions, which is bearish [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weak oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Range operation [6] - Palm oil: Range operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range operation [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [8] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Report's Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and black prices are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, and the coal and coke market is affected by policies and supply concerns. The steel market's price stop depends on production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market has inventory pressure and weak demand. The financial market has different trends for various indexes, and the precious metal market is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical risks. The light industry and agricultural product markets have their own supply and demand characteristics, and the soft commodity and polyester markets also face different situations [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The main line is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation." The supply has room for impulse, and the demand is weak due to the low level of real estate new construction. Follow-up attention should be paid to four main lines that may trigger price revaluation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Driven by multiple news, the price has risen. The market is concerned about demand-side policies, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel: The price is affected by the demand for steel, and the stop of the decline depends on production cuts and policy implementation [2] - Glass: There are contradictions in the market, with weak demand and increasing inventory pressure. The solution depends on reducing the daily melting volume and the support of policies [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: Different indexes have different trends, and the market is short-term consolidated with increasing bullish sentiment [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market has a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [4] Light Industry - Logs: The supply is increasing seasonally, while the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Pulp: The cost support is weakening, and the demand is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: There is supply pressure, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oil and Fat - Oils: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The overall is expected to continue range operation [6] - Meal: Supported by trade optimism and the rise of US soybean futures, it is expected to rebound in the short term [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The trading average weight may increase slightly, and the settlement price may rise. The market is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [8] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is improving. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [10] - PX: The trade dispute risk is weakening, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost support is weakened, and the supply and demand are marginally improved. The price follows the cost [10] - MEG: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is worrying. The price is suppressed by the inventory pressure [10] - PR: The market may oscillate weakly [10] - PF: The market may be sorted narrowly [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating weakly," "oscillating," and "oscillating strongly" [1][2][5][6][7][8][9][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It also provides short - term, medium - term, and long - term outlooks for each product and suggests corresponding investment strategies [1][5][6][7][8][9][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. 3. Summary by Product 3.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support. - **Logic**: Macro environment includes the US government "shutdown," Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical factors. From the industrial side, US soybean data is suspended, Brazilian soybean planting progress is slower than last year, domestic soybean arrivals are high, and palm oil and rapeseed oil have different inventory trends. - **Outlook**: Palm oil oscillates, rapeseed oil oscillates, and soybean oil oscillates strongly [5]. 3.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The Sino - US talks did not exceed expectations, the US soybean adjusted, and the domestic soybean meal was resistant to decline. - **Logic**: Internationally, the impact of Sino - US talks is over, and attention is paid to China's soybean purchases. Domestically, short - term downstream procurement interest is average, and long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. - **Outlook**: The US soybean is undergoing technical adjustment, and attention is paid to China's purchase volume. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread of soybean meal and the double - buy option [6]. 3.3. Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The futures price dropped again, and continue to hold short positions for observation. - **Logic**: The recent price rebound was due to low inventory of grain - using enterprises, slow harvest progress, and increased purchases by state - owned warehouses. However, there are still downward drivers in the future, such as high yields in the Northeast, low - quality grain pressure in North China, and weak demand in the sales area. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. Hold short positions and pay attention to the stop - profit rhythm. Consider long - term low - absorption and near - far month reverse spread strategies [6][7]. 3.4. Hogs - **Viewpoint**: The second - fattening sentiment weakened, and hog prices declined. - **Logic**: In the short term, second - fattening utilization increased, but the price rebound inhibited sentiment. In the medium term, hog supply will increase in Q4. In the long term, sow capacity is being reduced, and supply pressure will ease in H2 2026. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. The hog industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation," and pay attention to reverse spread strategy opportunities [1][2][7]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The willingness to sell increased, and rubber prices fell from high levels. - **Logic**: Macro factors no longer provided upward momentum, and the previous sharp rise increased the willingness to sell. The market is a bottom - up rebound rather than a reversal. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. There may be short - term upward space, but chasing long positions has risks [8][9]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Raw materials continued to weaken, and the futures price temporarily stabilized at a low level. - **Logic**: The BR futures price rebounded and then oscillated after hitting a new low. Due to the continuous decline of butadiene prices, there may be further downward space. - **Outlook**: There may be a bottom - up rebound, but there is a possibility of hitting new lows [10][11]. 3.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Macro - level benefits have been realized, and cotton prices have returned to the fundamental trading logic. - **Logic**: After the macro - level uncertainties are resolved, the market focuses on fundamentals. New cotton supply is increasing, and the "Golden September and Silver October" season is ending. - **Outlook**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [11][12]. 3.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The expected reduction in imports supports sugar prices, but it is still bearish in the medium and long term. - **Logic**: Internationally, supply will increase in the new sugar - making season. Domestically, imports decreased in September, and the market expects a further reduction in syrup and premixed powder imports. - **Outlook**: The domestic market may rebound in the short term but is bearish in the medium and long term. Consider a rebound - short strategy [13][14]. 3.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot market is generally weak, and pulp futures are unlikely to rise significantly. - **Logic**: Fundamental data is bearish, and the futures price increase has not effectively driven up the spot price. There are issues such as weak demand and over - supply in the pulp market. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [14][15]. 3.10. Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: Offset paper oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: Supply pressure exists due to new production capacity, dealers have high inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the cost support from wood pulp is limited. - **Outlook**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and pay attention to new driving factors [16]. 3.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: Logs will maintain low - level oscillations in the short term. - **Logic**: Futures prices are weak due to concentrated port arrivals, low sales of integrated timber, and high blue - stain wood pressure in the future. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. Speculative investors can wait and see or try to buy at low prices when it falls below 780 [17][18].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 28, 2025 [1] - Report Issuer: GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Report Type: Paper Industry Daily Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is expected to remain weak and operate in a low - level oscillation. The double - offset paper futures price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Futures - **Basic Situation**: In Shandong, pulp prices are stable, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. From January to September, the cumulative import volume increased by 5.6% year - on - year to 295200 tons. As of October 17, the port inventory was 2.074 million tons, and the port destocking was lower than expected. Downstream procurement was cautious [4]. - **Index Information**: The report mentions the closing price and holding volume of the pulp index, but no specific data is provided [8]. - **Main Force Trend**: The short - side main force has reduced positions, which is bullish [23]. Double - Offset Paper Futures - **Basic Situation**: In Shandong, double - offset paper prices are stable. Pulp spot is facing a fierce game between high inventory and cost. Last week, the shut - down devices basically resumed production. The production inventory of double - offset paper enterprises was 1.315 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. Downstream users mainly replenished orders based on rigid demand, and consumption was not significantly boosted [14]. - **Index Information**: The report mentions the closing price and trading volume of the double - offset paper index, but no specific data is provided [18]. - **Main Force Trend**: The short - side main force has reduced positions, which is bullish [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Stock index futures/options: Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, and CSI 500 index futures are expected to oscillate, while CSI 1000 index futures are expected to rebound [2][4] - Treasury bonds: 2 - year and 5 - year treasury bonds are expected to oscillate, and 10 - year treasury bonds are expected to rise [4] - Gold and silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weak oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [6] - Oils and fats: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Meal: Rebound [6][7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG, PR, PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints - The macro - environment is generally warming up, with Sino - US talks and the Fed's potential interest rate cut boosting risk appetite, leading to a rebound in commodity prices at low levels. However, different industries face different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][4]. - The iron ore market has an oversupply situation with high supply and low demand, and the price is mainly affected by factors such as policies, steel mill profits, and terminal demand [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is affected by macro - policy expectations and industry supply concerns, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit level of steel mills [2]. - The steel market has weak domestic demand, and the price stop - falling depends on production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2]. - The glass market has weak demand and increasing inventory pressure, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [2]. - The stock index futures/options market has a short - term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - The treasury bond market shows a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - The gold market is affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, and is expected to oscillate at a high level [4]. - The log market has increasing supply pressure and weakening demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - The pulp market has weak cost support and poor demand, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - The oils and fats market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [6]. - The meal market is affected by weather and supply - demand factors, and is expected to rebound in the short term [6][7]. - The live pig market has sufficient supply, increasing demand, and is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [7]. - The rubber market has mixed supply and demand factors, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - The PX, PTA, and polyester - related product markets are affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand, and different products have different price trends [9]. Summary by Industry Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: The supply is expected to remain high as Rio Tinto and VALE have room for production increases to meet annual targets, and port arrivals are likely to stay at a high level. The demand is weak, with iron - water production declining and real - estate new construction at a low level. The market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is mainly affected by policies, steel mill profits, and terminal demand [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Driven by macro - policy expectations, the market is concerned about potential demand - side policies. The industry is facing supply concerns, and the core contradiction is the low profit level of steel mills. If steel products continue to weaken, steel mill overhauls may expand, putting pressure on raw materials. The second - round coke price increase has been implemented, and short - term attention should be paid to the resonance of macro and industry expectations [2]. - **Rebar**: The macro - environment is warming up, but the domestic demand for steel is weak, with real - estate new construction at a low level. The price stop - falling depends on whether production reduction of more than 5% can be strictly implemented in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the intensity of anti - "involution" policies. The steel market still has supply - demand contradictions and is expected to continue oscillating [2]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The current market has weak shipments and a strong price - cut atmosphere. The demand is weak, with real - estate completion declining during the peak season, and the inventory of glass factories is increasing. To solve the over - supply problem in the entire industry chain, the daily melting volume of glass needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year. The price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro and production - reduction policies [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices, with some sectors showing capital inflows and outflows. The market is in short - term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations. The market trend is slightly upward, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central - bank gold purchases. It is affected by factors such as currency, finance, risk - aversion, and commodity attributes. The current market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and gold is expected to oscillate at a high level [4]. Forestry Products - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, but the downstream is entering the off - season, and demand may weaken. The import volume is seasonally increasing, putting pressure on supply. The port inventory is expected to turn to accumulation. The spot - market price is running weakly, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot - market price is relatively stable. The cost support for pulp prices is weakening, and the demand from paper mills is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Offset paper**: The spot - market price is relatively stable. There is still supply pressure due to new production capacity in South China. The start - up rate has rebounded, but the market expectation is cautious. The price is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. Oils and Fats and Meals - **Oils and fats**: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of official data. The high inventory of palm oil in Malaysia is suppressing the market. The production of palm oil is at the end of the increasing season, and the export volume varies. The demand for biodiesel in Indonesia is strong, and the inventory of US soybean oil has decreased. The domestic supply of oils and fats is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [6]. - **Meals**: The weather in the US Midwest may delay crop harvesting, and the weather in Brazil is favorable for soybean sowing but the sowing rate is low. The La Nina phenomenon brings uncertainties to South American soybean growth. The domestic supply of soybean meal is increasing, and the demand is also rising. The price is expected to rebound in the short term [6][7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs has increased slightly. The demand has weakened, and the slaughter volume has decreased, leading to a decline in pig prices to near the cost line. The price has rebounded, and the fat - to - standard pig price difference has widened. The demand for pork is increasing with the drop in temperature, and the price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [7]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The raw - material output in Yunnan is gradually recovering, but the profit from rubber tapping is negative. The output in Hainan is lower than expected, but the cost of local processing plants has decreased. The price of cup rubber in Thailand has risen, and the inventory in Vietnam is low. The demand from tire enterprises has increased, and the inventory of natural rubber is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **PX, PTA, and Polyester - related Products**: The PX market has short - term supply - demand growth but medium - term pressure. The PTA market has a weakening supply - demand situation and uncertain cost support. Different polyester products have different price trends affected by factors such as supply, demand, and raw - material prices [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different trends for each commodity. Some commodities are facing downward pressure, while others are in a state of shock or rebound [1][6]. - International and domestic factors, such as trade relations, supply and demand, and macro - economic conditions, have significant impacts on the prices of agricultural products [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, the market showed mixed fluctuations, and there is a high probability of inventory accumulation for Malaysian palm oil in October. - **Logic**: Due to profit - taking, US soybeans and soybean oil fell last Friday. Domestic oils and fats showed mixed fluctuations yesterday, with soybean oil being stronger and palm oil and rapeseed oil being weaker. The US government shutdown affected data updates, and the US soybean harvest is about 80% complete, with a high probability of a decrease in yield. Brazilian new - season soybeans are expected to increase by 3.6% year - on - year. Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.78% from the 1st to the 25th of October, and exports decreased. There is a high probability of inventory accumulation in October [6]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate weakly, while soybean oil will fluctuate. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [6]. Protein Meals - **View**: Positive signals from China - US relations led to a jump in US soybean prices and pressure on domestic soybean meal. - **Logic**: Internationally, China - US trade relations dominate the market. US soybean new crops are on the market, and Brazilian soybean exports have increased. Domestically, short - term profit margins for soybean crushing are gradually recovering, and the market lacks upward momentum. In the long term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a possible small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate between 1060 - 1080. The price of soybean meal is under short - term pressure, and the decline depends on China's purchase volume of US soybeans. Consider soybean meal 1 - 5 reverse spreads and option double - buying strategies [7]. Corn and Starch - **View**: The increase in wet corn supply led to a decline in both futures and spot prices. - **Logic**: The current decline in corn prices is due to high arrival volumes. Although there were short - term factors supporting the price last week, such as low inventory of grain - using enterprises and slow harvesting progress, there are still downward drivers in the future, including high yields in the Northeast, low - quality grain pressure in North China, and weak demand in the sales area [9]. - **Outlook**: The market will fluctuate. Hold short positions and pay attention to the profit - taking rhythm. In the long term, consider a near - far month reverse spread strategy [9]. Pigs - **View**: The reduction in supply at the end of the month led to a rebound in pig prices. - **Logic**: In the short term, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in pig prices has suppressed the enthusiasm for second - fattening. In the medium term, the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is starting to decline, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [10]. - **Outlook**: The market will fluctuate. In the near - term, the price is still weak, while in the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Consider reverse spread strategies [10]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The price is consolidating at a high level, waiting for new guidance. - **Logic**: The recent rebound is due to a short - term bottom and relatively low valuation. The slow registration of warehouse receipts has become a focus for bulls. The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to be stable in the fourth quarter. However, due to the large proportion of macro factors, it is difficult to determine the price trend [12]. - **Outlook**: Due to high macro uncertainty, the price is expected to fluctuate and find a bottom [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market shows signs of weakness. - **Logic**: The decline in the price of raw material butadiene and high production volumes are the main reasons for the weakness. Although downstream demand is increasing, the growth rate is lower than the production growth rate, resulting in high inventory levels [14]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and there is a possibility of hitting a new low this year [14]. Cotton - **View**: Cost support makes the cotton price relatively strong, but pay attention to macro - level disturbances. - **Logic**: In the north of Xinjiang, the cotton purchase is almost finished, while in the south, the purchase price is rising, increasing the processing cost. The new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and the commercial inventory is starting to accumulate. Pay attention to the progress of China - US economic and trade consultations. The price may face pressure above the range of 13600 - 13800 yuan/ton [14]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but pay attention to the upper - level pressure [14]. Sugar - **View**: The sugar price is fluctuating at a low level. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, leading to a downward trend in prices. In the short - term, the international market is relatively loose, and the domestic market has a marginal reduction in supply pressure. However, the price may face downward pressure again when the northern hemisphere enters the new sugar supply period [15]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long - term. Consider short - selling on rebounds [15]. Pulp - **View**: The financial trading atmosphere has driven up the pulp futures price, but the futures - spot price gap remains. - **Logic**: Although the pulp futures price has rebounded, the spot price has not increased significantly. The demand for softwood pulp is weak, and there is an over - supply situation for hardwood pulp. The futures price is close to the spot price, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium. However, pay attention to the impact of restricted waste pulp imports on the market [16]. - **Outlook**: The market will fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see, as changes in waste pulp may cause market fluctuations [16]. Double - Glued Paper - **View**: More paper mills are stabilizing prices, and the market is trading within a range. - **Logic**: The supply pressure remains due to new production capacity in the South China region. The demand from downstream printing factories is weak, and the decline in the price of upstream wood pulp has limited support for the cost. Although some paper mills are trying to stabilize prices, the market expectation is still pessimistic [17]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral strategies. Pay attention to new factors that may affect market sentiment [17]. Logs - **View**: Negative factors have led to a decline in log prices with reduced positions. - **Logic**: Informationally, the expected cancellation of the special port fee has led to long - position liquidation. Fundamentally, the concentrated arrival of goods at ports and weak sales of related products have put pressure on the spot market. The market is expected to be in a weak state, with a high probability of inventory accumulation in the future [20][21]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with a weakening fundamental situation and repeated information - based games [21].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Goldtrust Futures Paper Daily, dated October 24, 2025, written by the Goldtrust Futures Research Institute [1] Group 2: Double - Offset Paper Futures Analysis Basic Situation - In Shandong, the double - offset paper price remained stable. Pulp spot faced a fierce game between high inventory and cost. The operating rate increased slightly but had limited impact on the spot. The futures price is expected to remain volatile and weak [4] Core View - The double - offset paper futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [4] Main Force Trends - The short - side main force reduced positions, which is bullish [12] Group 3: Pulp Futures Analysis Basic Situation - In Shandong, the pulp price increased steadily. The supply - demand fundamentals showed no obvious fluctuations. The port destocking degree was still lower than expected, and the purchasing side was cautious. Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as a low - level oscillation [9] Core View - Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as a low - level oscillation [9] Main Force Trends - The short - side main force reduced positions, which is bullish [12]