农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | 投资咨询证号： Z0015153 联系方式： 010-68518793 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月06日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年1月6日，国内期货主力合约大面积飘红，碳酸锂涨停，沪银涨超7%，铂涨超6%，钯涨超5%，沪 锡、沪铜、国际铜、沪镍涨超4%，PVC、沪铝、甲醇、苹果涨超3%，硅铁、双胶纸、沪锌、铝合金、 菜籽涨超2%。跌幅方面，胶合板跌超1%，焦炭、原木小幅下跌。 | 序号 | 言约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 开机 | 卖价 | 深幅8+ | And | 英量 | 同型 | 薄膜 | 特色 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 碳酸锂2605 M | 137940 | 1 | 137940 | | 8.99% | 6953 | - | 304224 11380 | | 534996 | 19704 | | 2 | 护银2604 m | 19452 | 19 | 19450 | 19452 | 7.06% | 166 | 3 | 1929939 1283 | | 277142 | 38261 | | 3 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, glass, soda ash, 2-year treasury bonds, 5-year treasury bonds, log, pulp, double offset paper, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean two, rubber: Oscillation [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500, CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 10-year treasury bonds: Consolidation [3] - Gold, silver: Correction [5] - Live pigs: Relatively strong [7] - PX, PTA: Wide-range oscillation [9] - MEG: Low-level oscillation [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views of the Report - The high supply, weak demand, and high inventory pattern of iron ore remains unchanged, but short-term bullish sentiment has emerged due to policy changes and the expectation of pre-holiday restocking by steel mills. Long-term shorting opportunities should be considered after restocking is realized [2] - The fourth round of price cuts for coke is expected to be proposed at the end of the month and implemented in early January. Coal coke still has support due to capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - The implementation of the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply-side policy benefits to demand-side negatives, which will have a direct impact on steel exports and raw material prices [2] - The price of glass is expected to experience a process of first verifying supply reduction and then verifying demand sustainability. The overall demand is weak, and attention should be paid to macro and production line cold repair situations [2] - The stock indexes of the previous trading day showed different trends. The government's advance allocation of 625 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade-in programs is expected to drive consumption [3] - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Short-term corrections are possible, but there is solid medium- to long-term support [5] - The supply of logs is expected to stabilize, but demand is relatively weak. Prices are expected to oscillate [5] - The supply of pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - The supply of double offset paper is stable, and demand has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [5] - The supply of edible oils is abundant, and demand is uncertain. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] - The global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] - The demand for live pigs is expected to increase during the New Year's Day holiday, which will support price increases [7] - The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate due to supply and demand factors and inventory accumulation [9] - The supply of PX is high, and the demand for PTA has some support. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [9] - The supply of MEG has long-term accumulation pressure, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [9] - The polyester bottle chip market may consolidate within a range due to the high price of raw materials and a wait-and-see attitude in the industry [9] - The short fiber market is expected to be in a wait-and-see state in the short term [9] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: High supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short-term bullish sentiment due to policy and restocking expectations. Long-term shorting after restocking [2] - **Coal Coke**: Fourth round of price cuts expected. Support from capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti-involution policies [2] - **Rolled Steel**: Impacted by export license management. Policy changes bring short-term bullish sentiment, but prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [2] - **Glass**: Cold repair expected at the end of the year. Market to verify supply reduction and demand sustainability. Overall demand is weak [2] - **Soda Ash**: Inventory accumulation, high midstream inventory, and weak demand. Attention to macro and production line cold repair [2] Financial - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: Different trends in previous trading day's stock indexes. Advance allocation of special treasury bonds to support consumption [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest rates are in a state of consolidation, and the market shows a slight rebound [3] Precious Metals - **Gold**: Pricing mechanism shift. Short-term corrections possible, but solid medium- to long-term support [5] - **Silver**: Similar to gold, short-term corrections and medium- to long-term support [5] Light Industry - **Log**: Supply expected to stabilize, demand weak. Prices to oscillate [5] - **Pulp**: Abundant supply, weak demand. Prices to maintain an oscillating trend [5] - **Double Offset Paper**: Stable supply, some demand support. Short-term stable oscillation [5] Oilseeds and Oils - **Edible Oils**: Abundant supply, uncertain demand. Short-term price oscillation [6] - **Meal**: Abundant global soybean inventory, sufficient soybean meal supply. Price oscillation [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: Increased demand during the New Year's Day holiday to support price increases [7] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply affected by weather, demand with some support. Inventory accumulation, price oscillation [9] Polyester - **PX**: High supply, demand supported by downstream polyester. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - **PTA**: Cost affected by oil prices, short-term supply-demand improvement. Price wide-range oscillation [9] - **MEG**: Long-term supply accumulation pressure, short-term low-level oscillation [9] - **PR**: High raw material prices, industry wait-and-see. Market range consolidation [9] - **PF**: Short-term market wait-and-see [9]

责任编辑：赵思远 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2025年12月29日，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。钯、铂封跌停板，跌幅均为10%；碳酸锂跌超7%，多 晶硅跌超4%，PX、PTA跌超2%。涨幅方面，铁矿石涨超2%，双胶纸、玉米、淀粉、生猪、塑料、塑 料月均价涨超1%。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2025年12月29日，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。钯、铂封跌停板，跌幅均为10%；碳酸锂跌超7%，多 晶硅跌超4%，PX、PTA跌超2%。涨幅方面，铁矿石涨超2%，双胶纸、玉米、淀粉、生猪、塑料、塑 料月均价涨超1%。 | 문을 | 音约音称 | 最新 | 现手 | 买价 | 英语 | 海端家 | 可能 | 英国 | DATE | 海路 | 持仓型 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 把2606 M | 494.10 | 1 | | 494.10 | -10.00% | - | 1616 | 67 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（236）期 发布日期：2025-12-26 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/12/26 | 2025/12/25 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,107.50 | 1,124.00 | -16.50 | -1.468 | | | 焦炭 | 1,707.00 | 1,739.00 | -32.0 | -1.840 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,715.00 | 15,730.00 | -15.0 | -0.095 | | | 20号胶 | 12,765.00 | 12,695.00 | 70.0 | 0.551 | | | 塑料 | 6,355.00 | 6,390.00 | -35.0 | -0.548 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,220.00 | 6,266.00 | -46.0 | -0.734 | | | (PTA) | 5,216.00 | 5,152.00 | 64.0 | 1.242 | | | P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures significantly increased, and the supply-side positive factors were the main catalysts. The pulp market is expected to be bullish in the short term, with the bottom of the futures price rising, and the probability of breaking below the low on December 1st is not high [1]. - The sentiment in the oil market showed signs of stabilizing. Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production and demand expectations of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - The spot price of soybean meal remained stable, and the futures price rebounded from oversold levels. Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and US soybeans are expected to fluctuate [6][7]. - The corn and starch market lacked clear drivers and is expected to fluctuate [7]. - The overall supply of live pigs is abundant, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with a weakening supply pressure expected in the second half of 2026 [8]. - The rubber price continued to fluctuate, and the market lacked strong driving forces [10][11]. - The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market remained strong, and the market is expected to be bullish in the medium term [12]. - The cotton price continued to strengthen, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the long term, but the near-term contracts are restricted by hedging pressure [13]. - The sugar price is searching for a bottom, and it is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term due to the expected oversupply in the global sugar market [14][15]. - The double-offset paper market has no prominent contradictions and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17]. - The fundamentals of logs are expected to improve, and there is support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread and long opportunities in the far-month contracts [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures significantly increased, and the supply-side positive factors were the main catalysts [1]. - **Logic**: Positive factors include the rising US dollar price of broadleaf pulp, the supply reduction expectation caused by the shutdown of pulp mills, the potential production reduction of other softwood pulp mills, and the relatively high actual demand for pulp. Negative factors include the difficulty in cost transfer for downstream paper products, the seasonal decline in demand starting from January, and the abundant liquidity of softwood pulp in the spot market [1]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the short term, with the bottom of the futures price rising, and the probability of breaking below the low on December 1st is not high. The upper pressure level has shifted upward, with the 05 contract focusing on the pressure in the range of 5650 - 5750. The market is expected to fluctuate upward [1]. 3.2 Oils - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the oil market showed signs of stabilizing. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production and demand expectations of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - **Logic**: The US soybean market was bearish due to sufficient supply and concerns about Chinese demand. The South American soybean harvest is expected to be abundant. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased seasonally in December, and the probability of inventory reduction at the origin is high. The supply of domestic rapeseed is tight, but the supply is expected to increase in the future [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the technical support at the bottom [5]. 3.3 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of soybean meal remained stable, and the futures price rebounded from oversold levels [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean production outlook is optimistic, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly before the South American weather speculation. Domestically, the state reserve soybean auctions increased the market supply pressure, the seasonal de-stocking of soybean and soybean meal was slow, and the downstream consumption was weak [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. The market is expected to be bearish in the short term [7]. 3.4 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: The market lacked clear drivers and is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Logic**: The upstream farmers are reluctant to sell, and the downstream enterprises have established a certain safety inventory. The market is in a tight balance state, and there are no major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the old wheat auction and the rumor of state reserve release [7]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation [7]. 3.5 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The overall supply of live pigs is abundant, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of large pigs is increasing. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand increased during the Winter Solstice, and the inventory weight increased [8]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the short term, with the price expected to fluctuate in a weak range. The far-month contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [8]. 3.6 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The rubber price continued to fluctuate [10]. - **Logic**: The market lacked strong driving forces, and the geopolitical speculation was difficult to verify. The overseas supply increased seasonally, and the raw material price was firm, but there was a certain downward pressure. The downstream demand was weak, and the market sentiment was bearish [11]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and it is difficult to have a trending market [11]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market remained strong [12]. - **Logic**: The BR futures contract was favored by funds due to the marginal improvement in the butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price. The butadiene price fluctuated upward last week, and the inventory pressure was slightly relieved [12]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the medium term, but there is pressure at the upper level in the short term, and adjustment may be needed [12]. 3.8 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price continued to strengthen [13]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US cotton production decreased slightly, and the ICE cotton price had weak upward momentum. India's cotton production is expected to decrease for the second consecutive year, which may support the ICE cotton price. Domestically, the cotton supply and demand balance sheet is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory, but if the apparent demand continues to grow, the new crop may be in a tight balance, which will increase the cotton price valuation. The commercial inventory accumulation speed is slower than the listing speed, indicating good consumption. There is an expectation of a reduction in the planting area next year, and the slow registration speed of warehouse receipts is also positive for the cotton price [13]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the short term due to sentiment, but beware of callback risks. Bullish in the long term, and it is advisable to buy on dips [13]. 3.9 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is searching for a bottom [14]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sugar production in Brazil is expected to remain high, and the global sugar market is expected to be oversupplied in the new season. Domestically, the sugar production in November decreased year-on-year, and the supply will increase marginally with the concentrated start of the sugar cane crushing season [14][15]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the medium and long term due to the expected oversupply in the global sugar market [14][15]. 3.10 Double-Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The market has no prominent contradictions and is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **Logic**: The supply pressure still exists, and the paper mills have a strong desire to raise prices due to continuous losses. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is in a weak balance state [17]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the potential upward movement of the market if the paper mills shut down due to high inventory and continuous losses [17]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and there is support at the bottom [19]. - **Logic**: The port inventory continued to decline, and the spot price stabilized. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the overseas shipping volume is expected to decrease in December and January. The 03 contract has relatively strong gaming characteristics [19]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the reverse spread and long opportunities in the far-month contracts [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebounding [3] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [3] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [3] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [3] - Gold: Oscillating with a bullish bias [3] - Silver: Oscillating with a bullish bias [3] - Logs: Rebounding from the bottom [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [4] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [4] - Soybean oil: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Palm oil: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating with a bearish bias [7] - Live pigs: Bullish - biased [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: Widely oscillating [9] - PTA: Widely oscillating [9] - MEG: Oscillating [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The iron ore market is characterized by "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" in 2026, and the implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke market is supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies, but the steel export policy has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen a rebound due to improved sentiment and short - term fundamentals, but the implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of export expectations and attention to production control policies [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction due to weakening demand and insufficient supply contraction, and attention should be paid to macro and production line cold - repair situations [2]. - The financial market is in short - term shock adjustment, with the mid - term trend continuing and the high - tech industry growing. The gold price is affected by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and Fed interest rate policies [3]. - The log market has weakening supply pressure and non - weak demand in the off - season, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom but with weak driving force [4]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate [4]. - The double - offset paper market has supply pressure and general social orders, and the price is expected to weakly oscillate [4]. - The oil and fat market has uncertain demand prospects, high inventory pressure, and abundant supply, and is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [7]. - The meal market has a relatively loose supply, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias due to factors such as the weakness of US soybeans and the expected high yield in South America [7]. - The live pig market has stable supply and increased downstream consumption demand, and the weekly average price is expected to increase slightly [8]. - The rubber market has supply affected by weather and demand with limited support, and the price is expected to oscillate [8]. - The polyester market has different trends for each product, with prices mainly affected by cost, supply - demand, and inventory factors [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The global mine supply will increase significantly in 2026, while the current iron - making demand is weak, and the steel export policy is negative. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies, but the steel export policy has a negative impact on demand. Short - term, the price may be affected by the disappearance of export orders, and the long - term anti - involution policy provides some support [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The market sentiment has been boosted, and the short - term fundamentals are good. However, the steel export policy requires attention to production control and export expectations [2]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to weak demand and insufficient supply contraction. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom and may rebound due to sentiment [2]. Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is affected by policy arrangements and regulatory changes. Different stock indexes have different trends, with some rebounding and some oscillating [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the market is in a state of consolidation with a slight rebound [3]. - **Precious metals**: The gold - pricing mechanism is changing, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and Fed interest rate policies affect the price, which is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3][5]. Light Industry - **Logs**: The supply pressure is weakening, and the demand is non - weak in the off - season. The price is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the driving force is not strong [4]. - **Pulp**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, with cost support and weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Double - offset paper**: The supply pressure exists, and the social orders are general. The price is expected to weakly oscillate [4]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils and fats**: The demand prospects are uncertain, the inventory is high, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales changes [7]. - **Meals**: The supply is relatively loose, affected by the weakness of US soybeans and the expected high yield in South America. The price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The supply is stable, the downstream consumption demand has increased slightly, and the weekly average price is expected to increase slightly [8]. Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, the demand support is limited, and the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period. The price is expected to oscillate [8]. Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors increase supply risks, and the price is affected by oil prices. The demand from downstream polyester can support it for the time being [9]. - **PTA**: The cost end is affected by oil price fluctuations, and the short - term supply - demand is improved but will deteriorate in the future. The price follows the cost end [9]. - **MEG**: There is a long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term price oscillates with an upward suppression [9]. - **PR**: The cost support is strong, but the terminal demand restricts the price increase [9]. - **PF**: The cost is strong, but the demand is expected to shrink after New Year's Day, and the processing fee may be compressed [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes various agricultural products including pulp, oils and fats, protein meals, corn/starch, live pigs, natural and synthetic rubbers, cotton, sugar, double gum paper, and logs, providing insights into their market trends, influencing factors, and future outlooks [1][5][6][7][8][11][12][15][16][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp - **View**: Futures fluctuate while spot prices continue to decline. The market has more positive factors, which will push up the bottom of futures price movements. It is expected that the low on December 1st will not be broken again. The upper pressure comes from weak demand, and the 05 contract should pay attention to the pressure in the 5650 - 5750 area [1][15]. - **Logic**: Positive drivers include rising US dollar - denominated prices of broad - leaf pulp, supply reduction expectations from mill shutdowns, potential for other mills to cut production, and relatively high actual demand. Negative factors are difficulties in cost transfer for downstream paper, seasonal decline in demand starting from January, and high hedging pressure on traders if downstream purchases remain weak [1][15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate and rise. Positive news raises the bottom, but the upper hedging pressure remains unchanged [2][15]. Oils and Fats - **View**: The market sentiment is still weak. Pay attention to whether the lower level can provide technical support. Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Logic**: Influenced by factors such as the overall selling in the agricultural product market, concerns about the slowdown of US soybean export demand, the expected high yield of South American soybeans, high domestic soybean inventory, and the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil exports [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate weakly. The market is facing a game of multiple factors, and the current sentiment is weak. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [5]. Protein Meals - **View**: The premium of state - reserve auctions has narrowed, and the two meals are oscillating at a low level [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, Brazilian soybean sowing is almost complete, and Argentina is accelerating the sale of new crops. US soybean is expected to oscillate. Domestically, short - term state - reserve soybean auction results, slow seasonal inventory reduction of soybean meal, medium - term purchase progress, uncertainty of Australian rapeseed imports, and long - term South American weather all affect the market [6]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal will all oscillate [6]. Corn/Starch - **View**: After the snow and rain, the supply in the production area continues to increase [7]. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are weakening steadily. Affected by news of regulatory reserve auctions and high - level resistance on the futures market, the market sentiment has turned, and the supply in the market has increased. It is expected that prices will first fall and then rise before the Spring Festival, and it is unlikely to break the previous low [7][8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. Short - term observation is recommended [7]. Live Pigs - **View**: Supply and demand remain loose, and pig prices are oscillating within a narrow range [8]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of large pigs from second - fattening is increasing. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs will continue to be excessive until April 2026. In the long term, sow production capacity is being reduced, and the supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand may increase after the snowfall, and the average slaughter weight has declined. The industry is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. In the near - term, prices are expected to be weak. In the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse spread strategy [8]. Natural Rubber - **View**: Maintain a wide - range intraday oscillation [8]. - **Logic**: Currently, it is in a stage without a strong driver. Although the price has risen due to geopolitical conflicts and the overall commodity rebound, it mostly falls back within the day. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market to some extent, but there is a risk of decline. The demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation without strong expectations or macro - level drive [8][9][10]. - **Outlook**: Due to limited fundamental variables, the price is expected to continue to oscillate, and there is unlikely to be a trend - based unilateral market [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The positive sentiment in the market is maintained [11]. - **Logic**: The BR futures market is oscillating strongly, and its position is increasing. It is mainly due to the marginal improvement of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price of BR. The butadiene price is oscillating, and the demand side has certain support. Although there is an expectation of import arrivals, the current good trading situation supports the market [11]. - **Outlook**: Temporarily treat the market as oscillating strongly, but the sustainability of the upward trend is questionable [11]. Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices have slightly declined, and attention should be paid to the sustainability [12]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and the supply is increasing. On the demand side, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased. The commercial inventory is increasing, but the inventory accumulation speed is lower than expected, indicating good consumption. The market is concerned about the potential reduction of cotton planting area in Xinjiang next year, which has pushed up the price in the short term. However, the actual upward - driving force of the fundamentals is limited [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price is pushed up by sentiment, and there is a risk of correction. In the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. It is advisable to buy on dips [12]. Sugar - **View**: The supply pressure is increasing marginally, and the decline of sugar prices has widened [12]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, the global sugar supply is expected to change from tight to loose in the 25/26 crushing season. The production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. The production of Brazilian sugar has passed its peak, and the market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere. With the increase in supply, the pressure on sugar prices is increasing [12][14]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season [12][14]. Double Gum Paper - **View**: Publishers'提货 continues, and the inventory pressure on paper enterprises has been alleviated [16]. - **Logic**: Recently, the publication orders have started to be picked up, which has alleviated the inventory pressure of some paper enterprises. However, the social demand has not improved significantly, and distributors mainly maintain stable prices. The market is facing factors such as stable prices of large - scale paper enterprises, rational stocking by distributors, different trends of different types of double - gum paper, and the divergence between pulp and paper prices. In the future, the supply pressure still exists, and paper enterprises may adjust the market supply and demand through price cuts or production cuts [16]. - **Outlook**: Supported by publishers'提货 and paper enterprises' costs, but the medium - term demand is expected to be weak. The price of double - gum paper will run weakly and stably [16][17]. Logs - **View**: The valuation is low, and the market rebounds with reduced positions [19]. - **Logic**: The spot price has weakened, which has affected the market sentiment. However, the near - month contract has reached a low - valuation area and has certain support. Overseas shipments are expected to decrease from December to January, and the domestic demand is weak. The 01 contract has a certain profit in buying for delivery, and the 03 contract has more game points. Considering the low overall valuation, hold the 1 - 3 reverse spread and pay attention to the opportunity of buying the 03 contract at a low price [19]. - **Outlook**: The loose pattern of the log market continues. The near - month contract lacks game value. Pay attention to the reverse spread or the opportunity of buying the far - month contract at a low price [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply is relatively abundant due to the previous import volume increase and the continuous new opening of domestic sugar mills. Both domestic and international sugar are in a state of supply surplus, so the driving force for further rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions and consider selling call options. The support level of SR2605 contract is 5130 - 5150, and the pressure level is 5280 - 5300 [4]. - **Pulp**: Recent changes in the supply of softwood pulp have increased the volatility of the pulp futures market. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled, the new warehouse receipts have not increased yet, and the cost has risen, which is bullish for the market. However, the current supply of softwood pulp is not tight, and the inventory of producers in October increased slightly, reaching a high level in recent years. Domestic paper mills are adjusting the raw material ratio to reduce the use of high - priced softwood pulp. The continuity of the recent upward trend needs to be observed, and short - term caution is recommended for further increases above 5600. It is recommended to try a light short position in the 2605 contract, with the upper pressure at 5550 - 5600 yuan and the support at 5280 - 5330 yuan [4][5]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The price of raw wood pulp has fallen from a high level, and the offset printing paper futures price fluctuates with the cost, while the spot price remains stable, and the basis has widened. The demand improvement in the fourth - quarter peak season has limited impact on the overall inventory replenishment willingness, and the capacity is relatively abundant. Although the year - end demand still has support, the improvement of paper mill profits and offset printing paper prices is limited. After the basis widens, the support for the futures price may increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 4000 - 4100 yuan and the pressure at 4300 - 4500 yuan [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The USDA December report revised up the US cotton production and ending stocks, and the consumption is still suppressed by high tariffs. The domestic commercial and industrial inventories of cotton have increased month - on - month, indicating sufficient short - term supply, but the year - on - year increase is not significant, indicating limited long - term pressure. The macro - economic outlook is positive, which weakens the downward momentum of cotton prices. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract on dips, with the support range of the 01 contract estimated at 13200 - 13300 and the pressure range at 13800 - 13850 [8]. - **Apples**: The market sentiment has returned to calm, and the futures price has entered a high - level oscillation. The new - season apple production, good - fruit rate, and peak inventory are all lower than last year, which still provides support, but the support is expected to weaken. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the 2605 contract, with the support range at 8800 - 8900 and the pressure range at 9700 - 9800 [9]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube futures price rose and then fell on Wednesday. The warehouse receipts have increased to 850 lots. The short - term decline in the 2601 contract has narrowed, and the futures - to - spot price difference has gradually returned. The market's expectation of production reduction has cooled. It is recommended that aggressive investors buy the 2605 contract on dips around 9000 - 9200 points. The option volatility has rebounded significantly from the bottom, and it is recommended to take profit on the wide - straddle spread combination. The low - level reference range of the 01 contract is 9000 - 9500 points, and the high - level reference range is 9500 - 9700 points [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Apple 2605**: Recommend reducing long positions. The new - season production, good - fruit rate, and peak inventory are lower than last year, but the lack of consumption growth drivers has increased. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 9700 - 9800 [19]. - **Jujube 2605**: Recommend short - term buying on dips. The expectation of production reduction may be gradually reflected in the far - month contracts. The support range is 9000 - 9300, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [19]. - **Sugar 2601**: Recommend holding short positions. The increase in the number of sugar mills in India and the new domestic sugar supply are increasing. The support range is 5240 - 5280, and the pressure range is 5400 - 5450 [19]. - **Pulp 2605**: Recommend a small short position. The futures price has risen above the price of the main delivery products in the spot market, increasing the potential delivery pressure. The support range is 5270 - 5330, and the pressure range is 5550 - 5600 [19]. - **Offset Printing Paper 2605**: Recommend temporary waiting and seeing. The raw material price fluctuations affect the offset printing paper price from the cost side, but the spot price is stable, and the futures price may operate within a range. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4300 - 4400 [19]. - **Cotton 2605**: Recommend buying on dips. The macro - economic sentiment boosts the market, but the supply - demand situation has limited changes, and the futures price is expected to continue to operate in a low - level range. The support range is 13300 - 13400, and the pressure range is 14000 - 14200 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market**: In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples decreased year - on - year due to the delayed listing of new - season apples. As of December 4, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The spot price in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces remained stable, and the sales in the sales area were average [20][21][22]. - **Jujube Market**: As of last week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The acquisition progress in Xinjiang has accelerated, and the order signing volume has increased significantly [23]. - **Sugar Market**: As of December 10, 64 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 25/26 crushing season, 7 less than last year; 26 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 9 more than last year. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in November decreased by 2.59% year - on - year [25]. - **Pulp Market**: In October 2025, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased year - on - year, and the shipments to China also decreased. Some pulp mills have shut down or will shut down, which has improved the market sentiment, but the current supply of softwood pulp is not tight [27]. - **Offset Printing Paper Market**: The inventory days of offset printing paper increased by 0.41% week - on - week, and the increase rate narrowed. The start - up load rate increased by 1.53 percentage points, and the overall inventory pressure continued to increase [28]. - **Cotton Market**: In August 2025, the EU's clothing import volume increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The estimated cotton production in Xinjiang and the whole country in 2025 increased by 12.0% year - on - year. The cotton sowing area in Argentina has reached at least 60%, and the sowing progress is expected to accelerate. The cotton imports of Vietnam and Turkey in November and October respectively decreased year - on - year. The processing progress of Brazilian cotton in 25 reached 82% by early December, and the production in 2026 is expected to decrease by about 7% year - on - year [29][30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: The closing price of Apple 2605 was 9510, up 45 or 0.48%; Jujube 2601 was 9180, down 55 or - 0.60%; Sugar 2601 was 5328, down 15 or - 0.28%; Pulp 2511 was 5432, down 20 or - 0.37%; Cotton 2601 was 13780, up 40 or 0.29% [30]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.45 year - on - year; jujubes were 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 month - on - month and down 5.30 year - on - year; sugar was 5370 yuan/ton, down 40 month - on - month and down 700 year - on - year; pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 700 year - on - year; offset printing paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 450 year - on - year; cotton was 15004 yuan/ton, up 5 month - on - month and down 100 year - on - year [37]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant charts (Apple 5 - month basis, Jujube main contract basis, Sugar main - continuous basis, Pulp main - continuous basis, Cotton 1 - month basis) are mentioned [53][54][56][57][60]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple**: The 1 - 5 spread is 108, up 28 month - on - month and up 334 year - on - year, expected to oscillate and decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [59]. - **Jujube**: The 9 - 1 spread is 415, up 380 month - on - month and up 145 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [59]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 spread is 103, up 7 month - on - month and up 66 year - on - year, expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [59]. - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 spread is 20, up 5 month - on - month and up 60 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant charts (top 20 long and short positions, trading volume, net long and short positions of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton) are mentioned [66][68][72][76][78][80][88]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - **Apple**: The number of warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year [89]. - **Jujube**: The number of warehouse receipts is 850, an increase of 164 month - on - month and 790 year - on - year [89]. - **Sugar**: The number of warehouse receipts is 396, an increase of 215 month - on - month and a decrease of 3233 year - on - year [89]. - **Pulp**: The number of warehouse receipts is 199506, a decrease of 3608 month - on - month and a decrease of 163196 year - on - year [89]. - **Cotton**: The number of warehouse receipts is 2970, an increase of 221 month - on - month and 2004 year - on - year [89]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data analysis provided, only relevant charts (option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility of apples, sugar, and cotton) are mentioned [92][96][102].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillating [4] - Treasury bonds (2-year, 5-year, 10-year): Oscillating, consolidating [4] - Gold and silver: Oscillating strongly [4][6] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [6] - Pulp and offset paper: Oscillating [6] - Edible oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil): Range-bound [7] - Meal (soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2): Oscillating weakly [7] - Live pigs: Weak [9] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [11] - PX: Widely oscillating [11] - PTA: Oscillating [11] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [11] - PR and PF: On the sidelines [11] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation, with prices expected to oscillate weakly. The coal and coke market has short - term supply pressure, but there is support at the bottom. The steel market is in a bottom - oscillating state, and the price depends on production reduction and policy implementation. The glass market is weak, and its price depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. - The financial market shows a mixed trend. Stock index futures/options are oscillating, and treasury bonds are in a state of consolidation or small - scale rebound. The precious metals market is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, with prices oscillating strongly [4]. - The light industry market, including logs and pulp, is in a process of supply - demand re - balancing, with prices expected to oscillate. The edible oils and meals market has uncertain demand prospects, and prices are expected to range - bound or oscillate weakly [6][7]. - The agricultural product market, represented by live pigs, has stable supply but limited terminal demand growth, with prices expected to decline. The soft commodity market, such as rubber, has weak demand and increasing inventory, with prices oscillating weakly. The polyester market has complex supply - demand situations, and prices show different trends such as oscillation, weak oscillation, and waiting - and - seeing [9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and prices oscillate weakly. After the inventory replenishment and sentiment boost, short - selling opportunities can be sought based on high inventory and surplus expectations [2]. - Coking coal and coke: In November, Mongolian coal imports may reach a new high this year, and there is short - term supply pressure. After the first round of coke price cuts in December, there are still expectations of further cuts. Although there is support at the bottom, the market is weak [2]. - Rebar: Downstream demand is low, and it is in an oscillating state. The key lies in steel demand, and steel prices depend on production reduction and policy implementation [2]. - Glass: The price is weak, with low processing orders and high inventory. Whether it can stop falling depends on cold - repair progress and macro factors [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day showed a decline, and the market is oscillating. High - tech industries continue to grow, and market sentiment is rising [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has declined, and the market is in a state of consolidation or small - scale rebound [4]. - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and it is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. Silver is also affected by similar factors, and both are expected to oscillate strongly [4][6]. Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments have increased, but demand improvement needs to be observed. Supply pressure may gradually ease, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - Pulp: The spot price is stable, but demand is weak. The cost supports the price, and it is expected to oscillate [6]. - Double - gum paper: The price is stable, with stable supply and some support from orders, but weak social demand restricts price increases, and it is expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - Edible oils: The demand for soybean oil has uncertainties, palm oil production and exports are complex, and domestic oil supply is abundant. With cost support, prices are expected to range - bound [7]. - Meals: The global soybean inventory is abundant, and the demand for US soybeans is uncertain. Domestic supply is ample, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average transaction weight shows a north - rising and south - falling trend, terminal demand growth is limited, and prices are expected to decline. The slaughter rate has increased, and the profit situation varies [9]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: Production in some regions is affected by weather, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [11]. - Polyester: PX prices are widely oscillating, PTA prices follow the cost, MEG prices are weakly oscillating, and PR and PF markets are on the sidelines [11].