中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2026 第（34）期 发布日期：2026-02-27 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 2、央行发布《关于银行业金融机构人民币跨境同业融资业务有关事宜的通知》，支持境内银行 顺应市场需求，按照依法合规、风险可控的原则开展人民币跨境同业融资业务。引入逆周期调 节机制，《通知》明确将境内银行人民币跨境同业融资净融出余额与其资本水平、资金实力相 挂钩，通过跨境业务调节参数、宏观审慎调节参数进行调节。参数初始值的设置统筹兼顾业务 发展和风险防范的需要。 3、春节假期后人民币对美元汇率快速升值，在岸、离岸重返三年前高位。2 月 25 日至 26 日， 人民币汇率加速上行，在岸、离岸人民币先后突破 6.87、6.84 关口，离岸人民币于 26 日最高 触及 6.82665，创 2023 年 4 月以来新高。尽管人民币近期快速升值，但专家提醒，人民币汇率 走势受多重因素驱动，核心变量集中在中美利差、国内经济修复力度，以及全球风险偏好，预 计人民币年度走势维 ...

Market Overview - On February 13, 2026, the domestic futures market opened with more declines than gains, with caustic soda rising over 3% and soybean one and double-sided paper increasing over 2% [5][6] - Soybean meal and soybean two saw nearly a 1% increase [5][6] Declines in Key Commodities - Silver futures dropped over 9%, while SC crude oil fell more than 5% [5][6] - Platinum, palladium, lithium carbonate, and Shanghai tin all decreased by over 4% [5][6] - Shanghai nickel declined over 3%, and both international copper and Shanghai copper fell by more than 2% [5][6] - Other commodities such as stainless steel, low-sulfur fuel oil, PX (paraxylene), and asphalt experienced declines exceeding 1% [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity and fresh fruit and vegetable futures markets have complex supply - demand situations and price trends, with different trading strategies recommended for each variety [3][6][7]. - For sugar, the international supply surplus and domestic sufficient supply may lead to a downward price trend, and the SR2605 contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [3]. - Pulp is in a state of general fundamentals and low valuation, and the price has support but needs supply - side reduction news to strengthen. The 2605 contract is recommended to reduce short positions on dips and wait and see [3][4]. - Double - offset paper has weak cost support, and the spot price is stable. The 2605 contract is recommended to try short - selling on rallies [5]. - Cotton has a supply - abundant situation, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The 05 contract long positions are recommended to be reduced [6]. - Apples have supply - side support, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [7]. - For jujubes, the 2605 contract is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points, and protective put options can be bought for long positions. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Interval | Pressure Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Reduce long positions | Supply - side support exists, but the overall commodity sentiment is volatile recently, with short - term oscillatory trends | 8800 - 8900 | 11000 - 11500 | | Jujube 2605 | Short - term buy on dips | The expected production reduction may gradually appear in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has started to peak and decline | 8700 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 | | Sugar 2605 | Wait and see | The overall supply is relatively sufficient | 5070 - 5100 | 5320 - 5350 | | Pulp 2605 | Lightly long - allocate | The downstream is in the off - season, and pulp lacks new positive factors. There may be cost support for warehouse receipts | 5130 - 5200 | 5360 - 5400 | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Interval operation | The spot market is stable, but the demand is in the off - season. Pay attention to the support after the basis widens | 4000 - 4100 | 4250 - 4300 | | Cotton 2605 | Reduce long positions | The long - term positive expectations remain, but the external price decline restricts the domestic price, and the short - term price may fluctuate | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 | [16] 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 5, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 563,510 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 375,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 554,900 tons [17]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples is stable. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage trading is gradually decreasing. In the sales area, the recent arrival volume has increased significantly, and the overall sales situation is okay with stable prices [17][18][19]. 3.2.2 Sugar Market - The USDA's February report shows that the estimated total sugar production in the US in the 2025/26 season is 9.41 million short tons, with a sugar inventory/consumption ratio of 15.9%. As of mid - January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 345,000 tons [20]. - As of the week of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 210,289 contracts, showing strong bearish sentiment in the market [20]. 3.2.3 Pulp Market The Chinese pulp market continues to weaken due to falling futures prices and weakening demand for key resale varieties. The spot price of imported NBSK has declined, and the inventory in major ports has increased [24]. 3.2.4 Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The industry's overall inventory reduction speed decreased. The operating load rate was 57.43%, with a slight increase [25]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market - In January, Vietnam's cotton imports were 152,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 17.8%. The main import sources were the US, Brazil, and Australia [26]. - As of February 6, the new cotton sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, advanced by 22 percentage points to 90%, faster than the same period last year. As of the end of January, the 2026 new cotton sales progress in Mato Grosso was about 55%, slightly faster than the previous year [26]. - In January 2026, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 3.615 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.35% and a month - on - month increase of 11.77% [26]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9601 | 101 | 1.06% | | Jujube 2605 | 8895 | 225 | 2.60% | | Sugar 2605 | 5266 | - 12 | - 0.23% | | Pulp 2605 | 5236 | 34 | 0.65% | | Cotton 2605 | 14745 | 90 | 0.61% | [27] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5330 | 0 | - 670 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5300 | 0 | - 1400 | | Double - offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16029 | 41 | 1204 | [32] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific text description provided. Only relevant charts are mentioned, such as the basis of Apple 5 - month contract, Jujube main contract, etc. [46][47][49] 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1343 | 57 | 2046 | Oscillating strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 205 | 45 | 215 | Reverse spread on rallies | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 9 | 1 | - 140 | Oscillating | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 80 | 35 | 85 | Oscillating weakly | Sell on rallies | [52] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific text description provided. Only relevant charts showing the top 20 long and short positions and trading volume changes of each variety are mentioned [59][63][69]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 3673 | 127 | - 399 | | Sugar | 14461 | 0 | - 9526 | | Pulp | 146427 | 0 | - 198876 | | Cotton | 10746 | 60 | 4016 | [84] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific text description provided. Only relevant charts about option trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratios of apple, sugar, and cotton are mentioned [87][94][99].

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply of sugar remains abundant, with a likely downward trend in price. For the Zhengzhou sugar main contract 05, consider short - selling on rebounds [3]. - The pulp market is affected by the downstream off - season. Although the cost of warehouse receipts has increased, the pulp futures are under short - term pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. - The cost support for double - offset paper has weakened, and the spot price is relatively stable. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the basis, and it is advisable to try short - selling in the short term [5]. - The domestic cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in the 05 contract [6]. - The apple futures price may continue to fluctuate in a high - level range, and it is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [7]. - For the jujube 2605 contract, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points, and for long positions, consider buying protective put options. Cautious investors can hold a reverse spread of short 2605 and long 2609 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part - Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - Apple 2605: Reduce long positions. The supply side still has support, but the overall commodity sentiment is volatile recently, and it may show a volatile trend in the short term. Support range: 8800 - 8900, pressure range: 11000 - 11500 [16]. - Jujube 2605: Buy on dips in the short term. The expected production reduction may be gradually reflected in the distant months, and the spot inventory is starting to peak and decline. Support range: 8700 - 9000, pressure range: 9500 - 9800 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2605: Short - sell on rebounds. The global sugar supply is still in surplus, and the domestic sugar supply is in the peak season, with overall sufficient supply. Support range: 5070 - 5100, pressure range: 5300 - 5320 [16]. - Pulp 2605: Allocate long positions lightly. The downstream finished paper is in the off - season, and there is a lack of new supply - side利多 recently. However, the US dollar quotation remains stable, and the cost of warehouse receipts may support the short - term price. Support range: 5200 - 5300, pressure range: 5450 - 5500 [16]. - Double - offset Paper 2605: Operate within a range. The spot market is stable, but demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. Support range: 4000 - 4100, pressure range: 4250 - 4300 [16]. - Cotton 2605: Reduce long positions. The long - term positive expectations still exist, and the medium - term support remains unchanged. However, the external market price is in a downward trend, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. The short - term futures price may fluctuate. Support range: 13500 - 13600, pressure range: 15400 - 15500 [16]. 3.2 Second Part - Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 5.6351 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 375,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 554,900 tons [17]. - **Spot Market**: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong is stable. The Spring Festival stocking is basically over, and the price will remain stable before the Spring Festival. The mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruits in Qixia is 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per catty. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, and the cold - storage trading is gradually decreasing. The mainstream price of 70 and above bagged Fuji in Luochuan is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty [17][18]. - **Jujube Market**: As of February 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,888 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.84%. Due to the scattered acquisition structure in the 2025 production season and the cautious market outlook for the new season after the Spring Festival, holders are more inclined to sell actively before the Spring Festival to reduce inventory pressure [20]. - **Sugar Market**: In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, as of the first half of January, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 40.236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 345,000 tons. As of the week of February 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 210,289 contracts, showing strong bearish sentiment in the market [22]. - **Pulp Market**: Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand for key resale products, the Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The price of resale BSK has fallen, and the spot price of imported NBSK has also declined. However, the prices of Canadian and Nordic NBSK remain stable [26]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the growth rate also narrowed [27]. - **Cotton Market**: As of the end of January, the industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 1.001 million tons, an increase of 17,200 tons from the previous month. The intended cotton - planting area in 2026 is 46.479 million mu, a year - on - year decrease of 827,000 mu, a decrease of 1.7%. It is estimated that the total cotton output will be 7.275 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 452,000 tons, a decrease of 5.8% [28]. 3.3 Third Part - Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2605: Closing price of 9517, a daily decrease of 18, a daily decline rate of 0.19%. - Jujube 2605: Closing price of 8725, a daily increase of 30, a daily increase rate of 0.35%. - Sugar 2605: Closing price of 5261, a daily increase of 33, a daily increase rate of 0.63%. - Pulp 2605: Closing price of 5200, a daily decrease of 34, a daily decline rate of 0.65%. - Cotton 2605: Closing price of 14580, no daily change [29]. - **Spot Market Review** - Apple: Spot price of 4.45 yuan per catty, no month - on - month change, a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. - Jujube: Spot price of 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. - Sugar: Spot price of 5310 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 640 yuan. - Pulp: Spot price of 5300 yuan (Shandong Yinxing), a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1400 yuan. - Double - offset Paper: Spot price of 4350 yuan (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin), no month - on - month change, a year - on - year decrease of 600 yuan. - Cotton: Spot price of 15967 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 58 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1150 yuan [33]. 3.4 Fourth Part - Basis Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references such as apple 5 - month basis, jujube main contract basis, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part - Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread: Current value of 1280, a month - on - month decrease of 38, a year - on - year increase of 1909, expected to be volatile and strong, recommended strategy: buy on dips. - Jujube 5 - 9 spread: Current value of - 240, a month - on - month decrease of 15, a year - on - year increase of 140, recommended strategy: wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread: Current value of - 13, a month - on - month decrease of 2, a year - on - year decrease of 133, expected to be volatile, recommended strategy: wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread: Current value of - 125, a month - on - month decrease of 5, a year - on - year increase of 40, expected to be volatile and weak, recommended strategy: short - sell on rallies [54]. 3.6 Sixth Part - Futures Positioning Situation No specific text summary information provided, only figure references for the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, etc. of each variety. 3.7 Seventh Part - Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - Jujube: 3350 warehouse receipts, no month - on - month change, a year - on - year decrease of 722. - Sugar: 14461 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month increase of 87, a year - on - year decrease of 9667. - Pulp: 146447 warehouse receipts, no month - on - month change, a year - on - year decrease of 193040. - Cotton: 10580 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month increase of 5, a year - on - year increase of 3815 [87]. 3.8 Eighth Part - Option - related Data No specific text summary information provided, only figure references for option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, etc. of apple, sugar, and cotton.

Group 1 - The main futures contract for coated paper experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 4034.00 yuan, closing at 4040.00 yuan with a drop of 2.18% [1] - The supply side saw a 4.6% decrease in production due to machine maintenance and conversion, while market supply remains ample [2][3] - Demand is weakening as orders for educational materials conclude, with high inventory levels maintained by companies, resulting in a weak supply-demand balance [2] Group 2 - The production of double-coated paper was reported at 187,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons or 4.6% from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.9%, down 2.3% [3] - The inventory level for double-coated paper production companies stands at 1.407 million tons, with a slight decrease of 0.1% [3] - Despite weak overall demand, supply constraints due to maintenance may provide some support for prices around the 4000 yuan mark [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market is weak, affecting the prices of soft commodities and fresh - fruit products. Each variety has its own supply - demand fundamentals, which jointly determine their price trends and trading strategies [2][7][9]. - For soft commodities, sugar supply is abundant, paper pulp supply is not tight but demand is in the off - season, and double - offset paper has cost support weakening and demand in the off - season [2][5][6]. - For fresh - fruit products, the supply of apples has support, and the supply of jujubes is moving towards a situation of both supply and demand being strong [9][10]. 3. Summary of Each Section Based on the Table of Contents First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Interval | Pressure Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Reduce long positions | Supply - side support exists, but the overall commodity sentiment is weak recently, and the short - term may show a volatile and repeated trend | 8800 - 8900 | 11000 - 11500 [19] | | Jujube 2605 | Short - term buy on dips | The expectation of production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has begun to peak and decline | 8700 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 [19] | | Sugar 2605 | Hold short positions | International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar supply is in the peak season, with overall sufficient supply | 5070 - 5100 | 5300 - 5350 [19] | | Pulp 2605 | Lightly allocate long positions | Downstream finished paper is in the off - season, and pulp itself lacks new supply - side positive news recently, so the price is under pressure, but the US dollar quotation is stable, and the increase in warehouse receipt cost may support the short - term price | 5200 - 5300 | 5450 - 5500 [19] | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Interval operation | The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support situation after the disk price further declines and drives the basis to widen | 4000 - 4100 | 4250 - 4300 [19] | | Cotton 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | The long - term positive expectation still exists, and the medium - term support remains unchanged. However, the external price is in a bottom - seeking trend, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. Recently, the overall commodity sentiment is weak, and the short - term price may fluctuate repeatedly | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 [19] | Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 29, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas of China was 601,010 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 313,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 610,000 tons [20]. - **Spot Market**: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in the Shandong production area is stable, and the packaging volume of merchants in the cold storage is okay. The price of bagged Fuji in the Shaanxi production area is also stable, and the packaging volume in the cold storage has increased significantly. In the sales area, the market arrival volume is increasing, and the sales of gift - boxed products are okay [20][21][22]. Jujube Market As of January 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 13,143 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 925 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.99%. The pre - Spring Festival is the traditional consumption peak season for jujubes, but the current sales speed is slower than that of last year, and the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end [23]. Sugar Market As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 19.503 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.35%. Stonex estimated that Brazil's sugar production in the central and southern regions in the 2026/27 crushing season would be 40.7 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous estimate. As of the week of January 27, the net short position of speculative positions in ICE raw sugar futures + options decreased by 21,040 hands compared with the previous week. India's domestic sugar sales quota in February 2026 was 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January [26]. Pulp Market Affected by the decline in futures prices and the weakening demand for key resale varieties, the Chinese pulp market continued to be weak. The price of resold BSK decreased, and the spot quotation of imported NBSK also declined, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remained stable [28]. Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [29]. Cotton Market As of January 27, the non - commercial net long position of futures + options in the ICE cotton futures market decreased by 13,592 contracts compared with the previous week [30]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9380 | - 138 | - 1.45% [31] | | Jujube 2605 | 8820 | - 130 | - 1.45% [31] | | Sugar 2605 | 5207 | - 41 | - 0.78% [31] | | Pulp 2605 | 5266 | - 34 | - 0.64% [31] | | Cotton 2605 | 14575 | - 95 | - 0.65% [31] | Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 [36] | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 [36] | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5330 | 0 | - 580 [36] | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5375 | - 25 | - 1225 [36] | | Double - offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 [36] | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16070 | - 113 | 1344 [36] | Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1271 | 55 | 1781 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips [57] | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 225 | - 10 | 155 | Reverse spread on highs | Wait and see [57] | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 15 | 1 | - 148 | Oscillate | Wait and see [57] | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 110 | 30 | 40 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on highs [57] | Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 [89] | | Jujube | 3317 | 0 | - 699 [89] | | Sugar | 14069 | - 50 | - 10059 [89] | | Pulp | 142447 | 0 | - 196281 [89] | | Cotton | 10325 | 36 | 3612 [89] | Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector** - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price remains in a low - level narrow - range fluctuation. With an oversupply of international sugar and a large non - commercial net short position in sugar, and sufficient domestic sugar supply, the Zhengzhou sugar futures' fundamentals are loose. It is recommended to short on rebounds for the SR2605 contract [3]. - **Pulp**: Although the supply pressure eases, the domestic finished paper is in the off - season, and paper mills' restocking motivation is weak. The pulp price is under pressure but supported by the rising cost of warehouse receipts. It is suggested to go long on the 2605 contract near 5200 [3][4]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The double - offset paper spot is stable, and the upward space of futures is limited. It is advisable to operate in the short - term with a short - bias and hold short positions with appropriate reductions [5][6][7]. - **Cotton**: Affected by the relatively loose global and US cotton supply and tariff conflicts, the external cotton price may continue to bottom out. The domestic cotton price may slowly move up in the medium - term. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [8]. - **Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector** - **Apple**: During the Spring Festival stocking period, the market performance is average. The supply - side support still exists, but the marginal driving force decreases. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 2605 contract [9]. - **Jujube**: The jujube futures price is in a narrow - range shock. The spot supply and demand are both strong, and the futures - spot price difference contradiction is alleviated. It is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points for the 2605 contract, and option strategies can also be considered [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - **Apple 2605**: Recommend reducing long positions. The support from the decline in new - season output, good - fruit rate, and inventory year - on - year still exists, but the suppression of insufficient consumption growth is increasing. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500 [19]. - **Jujube 2605**: Recommend short - term long positions on dips. The expectation of production reduction may gradually appear in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory begins to peak and decline. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [19]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - **Sugar 2605**: Recommend shorting on rebounds. The international and domestic sugar supplies are relatively sufficient. The support range is 5070 - 5100, and the pressure range is 5270 - 5300 [19]. - **Pulp 2605**: Recommend light - position long positions. The downstream finished paper is in the off - season, and the paper mills' restocking willingness is weak, but the rising cost of warehouse receipts may support the pulp price. The support range is 5200 - 5300, and the pressure range is 5450 - 5500 [19]. - **Double - offset Paper 2605**: Recommend range - bound operations. The spot market is stable, and the basis expansion provides phased support for the futures price. However, the rising height is still not optimistic. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300 [19]. - **Cotton 2605**: Recommend holding long positions cautiously. The far - end bullish expectation still exists, but the external price is bottoming out, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 21, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 6.8278 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 218,800 tons. As of January 22, 2026, it was 6.3232 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 232,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 296,900 tons [20]. - **Spot Market Situation**: In the Shandong production area, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples is stable, and the packaging volume in cold storage is acceptable. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price is stable, and the packaging volume in cold storage has increased significantly. In the sales area, the market arrivals are increasing, and the sales are acceptable [20][21]. - **Jujube Market**: As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market supply and demand are expected to enter a peak period with the approaching of the Lunar New Year [22]. - **Sugar Market**: India's February 2026 domestic sugar sales quota is 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January. Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January. As of January 26, 2026, the estimated cost of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 3997 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5077 yuan/ton. As of January 21, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased, and the waiting sugar volume increased by 118,700 tons week - on - week [24]. - **Pulp Market**: Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand for key resale varieties, the Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The price of imported NBSK has declined, but the prices of Canadian and Nordic NBSK remain stable [28]. - **Double - offset Paper Market**: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The operating load rate was 57.43%, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the increase rate also narrowed [29]. - **Cotton Market**: Bangladesh plans to establish a free - trade zone in Chittagong. As of January 23, the cotton sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 48%, an increase of 19 percentage points from the previous week and higher than the same period last year [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: On the day, the closing price of Apple 2605 was 9532, up 28 (0.29%); Jujube 2605 was 8830, up 10 (0.11%); Sugar 2605 was 5187, up 19 (0.37%); Pulp 2605 was 5374, up 32 (0.60%); Cotton 2605 was 14940, up 375 (2.57%) [31]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.45 yuan year - on - year; jujubes were 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year; sugar was 5270 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 640 yuan year - on - year; pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 1200 yuan year - on - year; double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4350 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 600 yuan year - on - year; cotton was 15933 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan month - on - month and up 1207 yuan year - on - year [35]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation The report provides relevant basis data and charts for apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - **Apple**: The 5 - 10 spread is 1112, a week - on - week decrease of 15 and a year - on - year increase of 1622. It is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long on dips [55]. - **Jujube**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 200, a week - on - week increase of 25 and a year - on - year increase of 180. It is recommended to wait and see [55]. - **Sugar**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 11, a week - on - week increase of 6 and a year - on - year decrease of 144. It is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [55]. - **Cotton**: The 5 - 9 spread is - 70, a week - on - week increase of 75 and a year - on - year increase of 80. It is expected to be volatile and bearish, and it is recommended to short on rallies [55]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation The report provides charts of the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes for apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Jujubes have 3313 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month decrease of 12 and a year - on - year decrease of 703. - Sugar has 13715 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 10413. - Pulp has 140494 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 198234. - Cotton has 10209 warehouse receipts, a month - on - month increase of 4 and a year - on - year increase of 3496 [88]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data The report provides option - related data charts for apples, sugar, and cotton, including trading volume, open interest, put - call ratios, and historical volatility, but specific numerical summaries are not given in the text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soft commodity sector, Zheng sugar's fundamentals are loose, and a sell - on - rally operation is considered for the main 05 contract; the pulp supply pressure eases, but the domestic finished paper is in the off - season, so the operation is changed from a single - sided short allocation to an interval operation; the upward space of double - offset paper futures is expected to be limited, and a short - term short operation is recommended; the cotton price may be adjusted in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [3][4][5][6][8][9]. - For the fresh fruit and vegetable sector, the apple price may enter the support range, and a long - thinking operation is recommended; for jujubes, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points in the 2605 contract, and for long positions, buy protective put options [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Interval | Pressure Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Reduce long positions | Support from lower new - season output, good - fruit rate, and peak value year - on - year still exists, but the suppression of insufficient consumption increment drive also increases, and the near - month contract falls in the short term [19]. | 8800 - 8900 | 11000 - 11500 | | Jujube 2605 | Buy on dips in the short term | The expectation of production reduction may gradually appear in the far - month, and the spot inventory begins to peak and decline [19]. | 8700 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 | | Sugar 2605 | Sell on rallies | The international sugar supply is sufficient, and it is the peak season for domestic sugar supply, with overall sufficient supply [19]. | 5070 - 5100 | 5270 - 5300 | | Pulp 2605 | Short in the interval | There are still long - term benefits from supply and the increase in warehouse - receipt cost, but the recent downstream performance is average, which may put some pressure on the market [19]. | 5200 - 5300 | 5550 - 5600 | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Interval operation | The spot market is stable, and the basis widening provides phased support for the market. Later, the publishing orders may weaken, and it is still difficult to be optimistic about the upward height under the low capacity utilization rate [19]. | 4000 - 4100 | 4300 - 4350 | | Cotton 2605 | Reduce long positions | The long - term bullish expectation still exists, and the medium - term support is still there, but the foreign - market price is in a bottom - searching trend, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price, and the futures price enters a volatile and repeated stage in the short term [19]. | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 | 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 21, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas in China was 6.8278 million tons, a decrease of 218,800 tons from the previous week. As of January 22, 2026, the inventory was 6.3232 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 232,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 296,900 tons [20]. - **Spot Market**: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong is stable, and the packaging willingness of merchants in cold storage is okay. The price in Shaanxi is also stable, and the cold - storage packaging and shipment volume have increased recently. The arrival of goods in the sales area is increasing, and the sales are stable [20][21][22]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market supply and demand are expected to enter a peak season with the approaching of the Lunar New Year [23]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of the week of January 21, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 51, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7816 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 118,700 tons and an increase of 7.13%. From the second half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased year - on - year. The ISMA expects the sugar consumption in India in the 2025/26 crushing season to rise slightly to 28.5 million tons [25]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The demand in the Chinese pulp market has slowed down significantly, and the futures market's shock has made traders and investors cautious. The price of the main 2026 May BSK futures contract has fallen, and the weakness has spread to the spot market. Traders expect prices to fall further and have raised the forward resale quotes [28]. 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% from last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [29]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market In November, India's cotton imports were about 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.8% and a year - on - year increase of 94.2%. As of January 15, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 93,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21%, and the weekly shipment volume was 42,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20% [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9466 | - 69 | - 0.72% | | Jujube 2605 | 8760 | - 40 | - 0.45% | | Sugar 2605 | 5172 | - 8 | - 0.15% | | Pulp 2605 | 5374 | - 24 | - 0.44% | | Cotton 2605 | 14650 | - 45 | - 0.31% | 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5270 | - 10 | - 640 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5400 | 0 | - 1150 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15995 | 125 | 1288 | 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided, only relevant figures are mentioned, such as the basis of Apple May contract, Jujube main contract, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Prediction | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1191 | - 6 | 1746 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 240 | 0 | 150 | Reverse spread on highs | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 17 | - 2 | - 154 | Oscillate | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 155 | 10 | 0 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on highs | 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning No specific data summary provided, only relevant figures about the top 20 long - position, short - position, and trading - volume rankings of each variety are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse - receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse - receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 3325 | 27 | - 679 | | Sugar | 13715 | - 30 | - 10413 | | Pulp | 139554 | 0 | - 197742 | | Cotton | 10144 | 172 | 3428 | 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided, only relevant figures about the trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton options are mentioned.

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for various agricultural commodities: - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [4][7]. - **Protein Meal**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [9][11]. - **Corn/Starch**: Expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Hogs**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short - term, and the price is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [13]. - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate, with a mid - term strategy of buying on dips [16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias in the mid - term [19]. - **Cotton**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, suggesting buying on dips [20]. - **Sugar**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [20]. - **Pulp**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [21][23]. - **Offset Paper**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [24]. - **Logs**: Expected to fluctuate within a range [25]. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural commodities. Overall, the market is influenced by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, international trade, and weather. There are opportunities for short - term trading and mid - to long - term investment strategies in different commodities, but also risks associated with market fluctuations [4][7][9][11][12][13][16][19][20][21][23][24][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **View**: Concerns over China - Canada trade relations led to a significant increase in rapeseed oil prices. Overall, the upward trend of vegetable oils was supported by rising crude oil prices and positive fundamental expectations [1][6]. - **Logic**: Rapeseed oil was affected by Trump's tariff remarks, raising concerns about future rapeseed supply. The 2025/26 Canadian rapeseed production was a record high, but exports were expected to decrease. For soybeans, the US biodiesel policy provided emotional support. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in January 2026, while exports increased, with favorable export expectations [1][6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Suggest considering buying on dips for hedging and a long - palm oil, short - rapeseed oil arbitrage strategy [4][7]. 2. Protein Meal - **View**: Pre - holiday stocking led to an increase in the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the market sentiment was positive for US soybeans due to potential Chinese purchases and the US biodiesel policy, but the Brazilian soybean harvest and increased supply expectations were negative factors. Domestically, oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories were high, and the price of soybean meal was expected to be under pressure. The price of rapeseed meal was expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [9][11]. 3. Corn/Starch - **View**: The market was influenced by both positive and negative factors and was expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Logic**: The supply was in a tight balance. The pre - holiday selling pressure was not large, and the feed enterprises' inventory could cover the Spring Festival. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory increased, but the demand was weak. The substitution of grains and policy grain auctions also affected the market [12]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate. The market was in a state with an upper limit and a lower limit [12]. 4. Hogs - **View**: The reduction in slaughter orders led to a decline in hog prices [13]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply pressure was increasing due to slow - paced January slaughter and the entry of second - fattening pigs. In the medium - term, the supply would be excessive until April 2026. In the long - term, the supply pressure was expected to ease after May 2026. The demand was weak, and the inventory was increasing [13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short - term. The industry was advised to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The hog cycle was expected to bottom out in the second half of 2026 [13]. 5. Natural Rubber - **View**: The price faced significant pressure from previous highs [16]. - **Logic**: After being driven up by synthetic rubber, the price of natural rubber fluctuated sideways. The supply was relatively abundant, and the demand was not strong, with a fast inventory build - up. However, it was supported by the positive sentiment in the chemical sector [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental variables were limited, and it was difficult to break through the previous high. It was recommended to buy on dips in the mid - term, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate widely [16]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The operating logic remained unchanged, and the price was expected to be strong [19]. - **Logic**: The market was trading on the expectation of a tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. The rotation of commodity funds to the chemical sector also had a positive impact. The price of butadiene was rising due to limited supply and strong demand [19]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene was expected to improve, but there was short - term pressure. The mid - term trend was expected to be upward [19]. 7. Cotton - **View**: The cotton price fluctuated and adjusted, lacking new positive factors in the short - term [20]. - **Logic**: The cotton inspection was almost finished. The import of cotton and cotton yarn increased, and the downstream stocking increased. The commercial inventory was accumulating, but the overall apparent consumption was good. In the long - term, the supply might be tight, but there was short - term resistance [20]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. It was recommended to buy on dips [20]. 8. Sugar - **View**: There was support at the bottom, but the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [20]. - **Logic**: Globally, the sugar market was expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. All major producing countries were expected to increase production, putting pressure on sugar prices. The current valuation was relatively low, and the price was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [20]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. It was recommended to short on rebounds [20]. 9. Pulp - **View**: The price of hardwood pulp continued to decline, and the pulp fundamentals were weak [21]. - **Logic**: The demand for pulp decreased as the downstream production declined. The demand feedback was more significant for hardwood pulp. The main positive factor was the rising US dollar price of pulp, while there were more negative factors such as seasonal demand weakness and abundant supply [21]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias [21][23]. 10. Offset Paper - **View**: There was no positive driving force, and the price was expected to be weak [24]. - **Logic**: The supply was abundant, and the high pulp cost squeezed profits. The market demand was weak, and the price increase was difficult to pass on. The industry's production might decrease, and the trading volume was expected to weaken [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. The spot price was expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and the price was expected to fluctuate within a range [24]. 11. Logs - **View**: The spot price in Lanshan increased, and the price was expected to be strong within a range [25]. - **Logic**: The log market first declined and then rebounded. The next - period overseas quotation was expected to increase. The delivery pressure decreased, and the spot supply in Jiangsu was tight. The price was expected to be strong in the short - term [25]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate within a range. The negative factors were digested, and the spot price increase might boost market sentiment [25]. 12. Commodity Index - **On January 26, 2026**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the 20 - commodity index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index), and agricultural product index all showed increases. The agricultural product index had a daily increase of 0.54%, a 5 - day increase of 1.27%, a 1 - month increase of 2.37%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.40% [189][190].

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity sector is facing different market conditions. The sugar market has sufficient global supply, and the domestic sugar supply is also abundant. The pulp market has relatively stable prices, but the overall supply is not tight, and the demand from downstream paper mills is weak. The double - offset paper market has cost - support weakening and faces demand pressure. In the fresh fruit and vegetable sector, the apple market has strong mid - line supply support but weak marginal drivers, and the jujube market is entering the consumption peak season with inventory starting to decline [3][5][7]. - Different trading strategies are recommended for each variety. For example, for sugar, consider short - selling on rebounds; for pulp, switch from one - sided short - allocation to range trading; for double - offset paper, reduce long positions on high prices and try short - allocation; for apples, adopt a long - thinking strategy; for jujubes, aggressive investors can hold reverse spreads or long positions with protective put options [4][5][7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - For fresh fruit and vegetable futures, recommend holding long positions in Apple 2605 cautiously with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500. For Jujube 2605, recommend reducing short positions with a support range of 8900 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9300 - 9700 [16]. - For soft commodity futures, recommend temporarily observing Sugar 2605 with a support range of 5070 - 5100 and a pressure range of 5270 - 5300. For Pulp 2605, recommend range trading with a support range of 5200 - 5300 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5600. For Double - offset Paper 2605, recommend trying short - selling on high prices with a support range of 4000 - 4050 and a pressure range of 4250 - 4300 [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2605 closed at 9535, down 6 points or 0.06% for the week; Jujube 2605 closed at 8800, down 75 points or 0.85% for the week; Sugar 2605 closed at 5180, down 78 points or 1.48% for the week; Pulp 2605 closed at 5398, up 36 points or 0.67% for the week; Double - offset Paper 2602 closed at 4226, up 178 points or 4.40% for the week [17]. 3.2.2 Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples is 4.70 yuan per jin, with no change from the previous period and an increase of 0.45 yuan year - on - year. The spot price of jujubes is 9.40 yuan per kilogram, down 0.10 yuan from the previous period and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year. The spot price of sugar is 5280 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous period and down 630 yuan year - on - year. The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) is 5400 yuan, with no change from the previous period and down 1150 yuan year - on - year [23]. 3.3 Third Part: Sector Basis Situation The report provides basis data charts for apple, jujube, sugar, and pulp, including Apple 5 - month basis, Jujube main - continuous basis, Sugar main - continuous basis, and Pulp main - continuous basis, but no specific data analysis is given [28][31][33][34]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation The report provides inter - monthly spread charts for apple, jujube, and sugar, such as Apple 5 - 10 spread, Apple 1 - 5 spread, Jujube 1/5 spread, Jujube 5/9 spread, Sugar 5 - 9 spread, and Sugar 9 - 1 spread, but no specific data analysis is given [37][39][41]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt volume of apples is 0, with no change from the previous period and no change year - on - year. - The warehouse receipt volume of jujubes is 3298, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 706 year - on - year. - The warehouse receipt volume of sugar is 13745, a decrease of 11 from the previous period and a decrease of 10383 year - on - year. - The warehouse receipt volume of pulp is 139554, with no change from the previous period and a decrease of 197742 year - on - year [42]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - related Data 3.6.1 Option Strategy Recommendations - For Apple 2605, recommend selling out - of - the - money put options as the bullish factors have been partially realized and the price increase has slowed down. - For Jujube 2605, recommend selling deep out - of - the - money call options as new jujubes are concentrated on the market and the spot inventory is high. - For Sugar 2605, recommend considering selling both call and put options as there are differences in China's sugar production and the international market has oversupply [42]. 3.6.2 Apple Option Data The report provides charts of apple option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio of open interest and trading volume, historical volatility, etc., but no specific data analysis is given [44]. 3.6.3 Sugar Option Data The report provides charts of sugar option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio of trading volume and open interest, historical volatility, implied volatility, etc., but no specific data analysis is given [45][46]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apple - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas**: The report provides charts of minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi, which are major apple - producing areas, but no specific data analysis is given [49][50]. - **Export Situation**: The report provides a chart of the monthly apple export volume, but no specific data analysis is given [53]. - **Inventory Situation**: The report provides charts of national apple inventory, weekly apple inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific data analysis is given [53][55]. 3.7.2 Jujube The report provides charts of weekly jujube trading volume in Henan and Hebei, and daily arrival volume of jujubes at Guangdong Ruyifang Market, but no specific data analysis is given [57]. 3.7.3 Sugar The report provides charts of national sugar industrial inventory (newly added), monthly sugar import volume, and sugar spot - futures difference, but no specific data analysis is given [59][60][62]. 3.7.4 Pulp The report provides charts of domestic 4 - port pulp inventory, global pulp producer inventory days, weekly production volume of various types of paper, and import volume of broad - leaf and coniferous pulp, but no specific data analysis is given [64][65][74]. 3.7.5 Double - offset Paper The report provides charts of double - offset paper capacity utilization rate, weekly production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption volume, but no specific data analysis is given [76][79].