Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for specific sectors such as shipping and logistics [2]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a significant increase in oil transportation rates due to heightened sanctions from the US and EU against Iran and Venezuela, leading to strong market sentiment among shipowners [6][17]. - The infrastructure sector is advised to focus on individual stock selections, particularly in stable cash flow assets like ports, which are currently undervalued [19]. - The aviation industry is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices in 2026, marking a potential recovery year for profitability [25]. - The express delivery sector is projected to see a gradual improvement in competition and profitability, with a focus on major players like SF Express and Zhongtong Express [21]. Shipping Sector Summary - Oil transportation rates have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with VLCC TD3C-TCE reaching $116,000 per day, a notable increase of 10.8% from the previous week [12][49]. - The dry bulk market is showing signs of seasonal decline, with the BDI index reporting a drop of 7.2% [16][48]. - Recommendations include focusing on oil tanker and dry bulk stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [17]. Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data indicates a 17.3% increase in truck traffic volume, while rail freight has seen a 10.3% increase week-on-week [19][18]. - The report suggests investing in highway assets like Anhui Expressway, which are expected to provide stable returns [19]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry saw a 13.7% year-on-year growth in business volume for 2025, with December showing a slowdown to 2.6% [20][21]. - Major companies are expected to benefit from operational adjustments, with SF Express projected to achieve faster profit growth in 2026 [21]. Aviation Sector Summary - The aviation sector is currently in a transitional phase, with passenger volumes showing a 3.6% year-on-year decline, but a potential recovery is anticipated in 2026 due to improved market conditions [25][22]. - The report emphasizes monitoring the impact of the Spring Festival travel season and geopolitical factors on oil prices [25]. Logistics Sector Summary - The logistics sector is experiencing stable air freight prices, with the TAC Shanghai outbound air freight price index remaining flat week-on-week [26]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring cross-border transport volumes and short-haul freight rates [26].

Core Viewpoint - As of January 15, a total of 105 stocks reached their 52-week highs, with notable performers including 德莱建业 (01546), 东曜药业－Ｂ (01875), and 大森控股 (01580) achieving high rates of 78.00%, 51.36%, and 37.61% respectively [1]. Summary by Category 52-Week Highs - 德莱建业 (01546) closed at 0.355, with a peak of 0.445, marking a high rate of 78.00% [1]. - 东曜药业－Ｂ (01875) closed at 4.190, reaching a high of 4.450, with a high rate of 51.36% [1]. - 大森控股 (01580) closed at 0.275, with a peak of 0.300, achieving a high rate of 37.61% [1]. - 顺兴集团控股 (01637) and 怡园酒业 (08146) also showed significant increases, with high rates of 36.36% and 24.74% respectively [1]. Additional Notable Stocks - JBB BUILDERS (01903) reached a high rate of 24.12% with a closing price of 2.830 [1]. - 天臣控股 (01201) and 江苏创新 (02116) had high rates of 15.38% and 15.00% respectively [1]. - 万国黄金集团 (03939) and 竣球控股 (01481) also performed well, with high rates of 12.95% and 12.44% respectively [1]. 52-Week Lows - The report also noted stocks reaching 52-week lows, with 天彩控股 (03882) showing a low rate of -14.42% [3]. - 中国智慧能源 (01004) and 基石控股 (01592) followed with low rates of -13.64% and -12.86% respectively [3]. - 弘毅文化集团－旧 (02990) and 中原建业 (09982) also reported significant declines of -9.09% and -6.06% respectively [3].

中泰证券（600918）发布研报称，"价格战"转向"价值战"背景下，快递业市场份额有望逐步向服务品质 更优、管理能力更强、网络健康度更好的快递企业集中，同时该等企业有望凭借自身资源优势实现更为 显著的降本增效;重点跟踪监管力度、量价表现及头部企业竞争策略变化情况。个股方面重点关注中通 快递-W(02057)、圆通速递（600233）(600233.SH)。建议关注申通快递（002468）(002468.SZ)、韵达股 份（002120）(002120.SZ)及顺丰控股（002352）(002352.SZ)。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 3)行业端：行业件量增速放缓下，价值竞争成关键。"反内卷"背景下，快递价格理性回归，快递轻小件 化趋势减弱，同时电商平台合规经营监管强化有望推动快递件量"去泡沫"，行业件量增速中枢下移预期 下(据2026年全国邮政工作会议，2025年快递业务量同比增长13.7%，预计2026年快递业务量同比增长 8%左右)，"降本、提质、增效"的价值竞争成为快递企业打造竞争优势、获取市场份额的关键。 深挖全链路成本下降潜力，末端决胜逐步成为共识 1)中转环节：随着件量规模不断扩大，规模效应带来的边 ...

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is shifting from a "price war" to a "value war," with market share expected to concentrate among companies that offer better service quality, stronger management capabilities, and healthier networks [1] Policy Aspects - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue, effectively curbing vicious competition, with multiple provinces raising express delivery prices. From August to November, the single ticket revenue of A-share "Tongda" express companies has shown a continuous upward trend [2] - The "social insurance new regulations" are anticipated to enhance cost-price transmission paths, potentially leading to increased labor costs in the express delivery industry, which may be passed on to consumers through price hikes [2] Industry Aspects - With the growth rate of express delivery volume slowing, value competition is becoming crucial. The rational return of express prices and the reduction of small parcel trends are expected, with the industry volume growth rate forecasted to decrease [3] - The expected growth rates for express delivery volume are 13.7% year-on-year in 2025 and around 8% in 2026, emphasizing the importance of "cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement" for companies to gain market share [3] Cost Reduction Potential - In the transit segment, the marginal cost reduction effects from scale are diminishing, with major franchise express companies focusing on optimizing routes and improving sorting efficiency. As of H1 2025, the single ticket transit cost for "Tongda" express companies has dropped to approximately 0.60 yuan [4] - In the last-mile delivery segment, which significantly impacts user experience and logistics efficiency, there remains substantial potential for cost optimization through automation and innovation. The cost burden for new technologies is primarily borne by franchisees, making the performance of these networks critical [4]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain a single-digit growth rate, with a projected year-on-year increase of 5% in November 2025, reflecting a slowdown in growth compared to previous years [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Performance - The express delivery volume during the e-commerce Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to increase by 9% year-on-year, a significant decrease from the 21% growth rate observed in 2024 [1][2]. - The average daily volume during the shopping festival is 1.18 times that of regular days, with a peak daily volume increase of 6.6% year-on-year, indicating a diminishing marginal effect of the shopping festival on consumer spending [2][3]. Group 2: Revenue and Market Share - The implementation of anti-involution policies has effectively increased the revenue per package, with YTO, Yunda, and Shentong seeing revenue increases of 0.16, 0.25, and 0.44 yuan respectively from July to November [3]. - The market concentration in the express delivery sector has stabilized, with the CR8 index remaining at 86.9 in November, indicating a balanced market share among major players [3]. - The market shares for Zhongtong, YTO, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu in Q3 2025 were 19.4%, 15.6%, 13.0%, 13.2%, and 11.3% respectively, showing slight fluctuations [3]. Group 3: Profitability Recovery - The anti-involution measures have contributed to a recovery in profitability, with Zhongtong, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reporting net profit margin changes of -0.9%, +0.07%, -1.5%, and +0.5% year-on-year respectively [3]. - The trend of profitability recovery is expected to continue into Q4, contingent on the sustained implementation of anti-involution policies [3][4]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment and Competitive Strategies - The anti-involution policies initiated by the State Post Bureau have effectively countered "involution-style" competition, supported by local postal authorities through price and market share supervision [4]. - The positive effects of the anti-involution measures are anticipated to continue, promoting healthy competition and profitability within the industry [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The express delivery sector is viewed positively, with recommendations for leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express, which are expected to benefit from improved profitability and high growth in overseas volumes [5]. - SF Express is noted for its proactive market expansion strategy, which is expected to yield positive results as cost control measures are strengthened [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a recovery in oil transportation due to improved demand post-holidays and geopolitical tensions [6][16] - The aviation industry aims to achieve a passenger volume of 810 million in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% [23][24] - The express delivery sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in competition and profitability, with a focus on major players like SF Express [20] Shipping - The oil shipping sector is rebounding due to increased cargo availability from the Middle East and geopolitical sanctions affecting supply [6][16] - Container shipping rates are showing slight increases, with strong pricing power among shipowners before long-term contract negotiations [11][12] - Key stocks to watch include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, and Pacific Shipping [16] Infrastructure - Weekly data indicates a decline in truck traffic and rail freight, with road truck traffic at 46.964 million vehicles, down 14.9% week-on-week [17][18] - Port throughput for the first week of 2026 was 25.4953 million tons, showing a slight decrease but a year-on-year increase of 7.7% in container throughput [18] - Recommended stock for infrastructure investment is Anhui Expressway [18] Express Delivery - In November 2025, express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while revenue decreased by 3.7% [19][20] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express anticipated to see profit growth in 2026 [20] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express [20] Aviation - The aviation sector is entering a critical period with the Spring Festival approaching, and passenger volume is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2026 [23][24] - Recent data shows a year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume of 1.5% and a decrease in ticket prices [21][24] - Recommended stocks include Air China, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [24] Logistics - The cross-border air freight price index has decreased by 19.9% week-on-week, indicating a significant drop in logistics costs [25]

Core Insights - Zhongtong Express Group has officially commenced the construction of its smart operation center in Foshan, Guangdong Province, on January 9 [1] - The project covers an area of 212 acres with a total investment of 5 billion yuan [1] - The first phase of investment amounts to 3 billion yuan, focusing on building four core components: an unmanned logistics equipment assembly center, an industrial warehousing service center, an integrated smart operation settlement center, and a smart express application scenario center [1] - Once fully operational, the project is expected to generate an annual revenue exceeding 3 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 1.09% on January 8 [1] - Key Chinese stocks saw significant gains, with GDS Holdings rising over 8% and Bilibili increasing by more than 6% [1] - Tencent Music and Alibaba both rose by over 5%, while other companies like Kingsoft Cloud and Xpeng Motors saw increases of over 3% [1] Group 2 - JD.com and Vipshop experienced gains of over 2%, while ZTO Express and Futu Holdings rose by more than 1% [1] - Ctrip and NetEase had slight increases, indicating a generally positive market sentiment for these companies [1] - Conversely, Baidu and Bawang Tea House fell by over 3%, with Manbang and NIO also experiencing declines of more than 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has shown positive stock performance, with a 3.30% increase over the past month and a 21.17% increase over the past year, leading to optimism among long-term shareholders, while concerns about potential overvaluation based on the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio are also present [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The current trading price of ZTO Express is $21.51, reflecting a 0.84% increase in the current session [1]. - Over the past month, ZTO Express stock has increased by 3.30% [1]. - In the past year, the stock has appreciated by 21.17% [1]. Group 2: Price-to-Earnings Ratio Analysis - The P/E ratio is a critical metric for evaluating the company's market performance, comparing the current share price to the company's earnings per share (EPS) [4]. - A higher P/E ratio suggests that investors expect better future performance, which may indicate overvaluation, but it can also reflect a willingness to pay a premium for anticipated growth [4]. - ZTO Express has a lower P/E ratio compared to the Air Freight & Logistics industry average of 22.04, which may imply that the stock is undervalued or that investors expect it to perform worse than peers [5]. Group 3: Limitations of P/E Ratio - While a lower P/E can indicate undervaluation, it may also suggest a lack of expected future growth from shareholders [7]. - The P/E ratio should not be used in isolation; other factors such as industry trends and business cycles also influence stock prices [7]. - Investors are advised to consider the P/E ratio alongside other financial metrics and qualitative analyses for informed investment decisions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain a single-digit growth rate, with a projected year-on-year increase of 5% in express delivery volume by November 2025, indicating a continued trend of slow growth and effective implementation of anti-involution policies [1][2][4]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The express delivery volume growth rate is expected to drop to single digits in Q4, with the Double Eleven shopping festival showing a year-on-year increase of 9%, a slowdown compared to the 21% growth in 2024 [2]. - The anti-involution measures implemented since July 2025 have effectively driven price recovery in the e-commerce express delivery sector, which may influence the growth trend of small and light packages and enhance the quality of express delivery demand [2][3]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Share - The anti-involution policies have led to an increase in single-package revenue, with YTO, Yunda, and Shentong seeing increases of 0.16, 0.25, and 0.44 yuan per package respectively since July [3]. - The market concentration has stabilized, with the industry CR8 remaining at 86.9 in November, indicating a slight recovery in market share for YTO since Q4 2025, attributed to AI integration and infrastructure upgrades [3]. - The net profit margins for major companies in Q3 2025 were as follows: Zhongtong -0.9%, YTO +0.07%, Yunda -1.5%, and Shentong +0.5% year-on-year, with expectations for continued profitability recovery in Q4 [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - The anti-involution measures have been effectively enforced, with the State Post Bureau emphasizing the need to combat "involutionary" competition, leading to price stabilization and gradual expansion of price increases to key regions [4]. - The positive effects of the current anti-involution policies are expected to continue, supporting healthy competition and ongoing profitability recovery in the industry [4]. - Future focus should be on the regulatory strength of anti-involution measures and the competitive strategies of companies within the industry [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The recommendation is to maintain a bullish rating on the express delivery sector, highlighting leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express, which are expected to benefit from profitability improvements and high overseas volume growth [5]. - SF Express is noted for its operational mechanisms that drive volume growth, with short-term performance fluctuations attributed to proactive market expansion strategies and necessary long-term investments [5].