消息面上，据南方都市报，8月4日起，广东省快递底价整体上调0.4元/票，均价涨至1.4元以上。按照有 关部门要求，各家均不得低于1.4元成本价揽收，否则将遭受重罚。多位快递企业人士证实了该消 息，"确实是涨价了，0.1kg不能低于1.4元，已经开始了。"此前7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈 会强调，积极推动解决"内卷式"竞争和农村地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题，维护好行业良好发展业 态。 浙商证券（601878）指出，随着淡季结束，9月旺季到来，有望看到价格更大范围企稳回升，从而加盟 商经营承压或将改善，快递业绩及板块情绪有望实现阶段性修复。此外，申通近日收购丹鸟拉开了快递 行业在国家反内卷背景下资源整合的序幕，中长期看，国家邮政局鼓励快递企业兼并重组，快递行业结 构趋于健康，竞争生态优化，有望带来板块性的投资机会。 中通快递-W(02057)涨超4%，暂领升蓝筹。截至发稿，涨4.28%，报163.3港元，成交额5.42亿港元。 ...

Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan for economic and social development, emphasizing the need for stable and flexible policies[5] - The government plans to allocate approximately 90% of the 90 billion yuan budget for childcare subsidies from the central finance[6] Market Trends - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the yield on the 10-year government bond decreasing by 2.75 basis points to 1.7200%[16] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes, while the U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3% in Q2, surpassing expectations[8][9] Financial Market Performance - The bond market experienced a net cash injection of 158.5 billion yuan on July 30, following a 3,090 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by the central bank[12] - The weighted average interest rates for various repo transactions showed a downward trend, with DR001 and DR007 rates falling to 1.315% and 1.518%, respectively[13][14] Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices increased, with WTI rising by 1.36% to $70.99 per barrel, while natural gas prices fell by 1.89% to $3.016 per MMBtu[10] Bond Issuance and Trading - The bond auction results indicated a competitive bidding environment, with the 1-year agricultural development bond receiving a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.3[18] - The convertible bond market saw a decline, with major indices dropping, and a total trading volume of 84.376 billion yuan, down by 5.53 billion yuan from the previous day[24]

第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 | 3. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | 其他類別 (請註明) | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | 未指定 | | | | 2. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | B類普通股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 USD | | | 0.0001 | USD | | 100,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | USD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 US ...

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is facing multiple challenges including intensified market competition, the influence of e-commerce platforms, and regulatory pressures, leading to a pronounced issue of overcapacity [1][2] - Technological advancements and improvements in transportation efficiency are further driving down prices, resulting in reduced cost and brand premium differences among companies, making price competition the primary strategy [1][2] Core Points and Arguments - The regulatory framework aims to alleviate cash flow pressures on franchisees, stabilize employment, enhance service satisfaction, and address issues like illegal charges in rural delivery [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy is designed to stabilize the competitive baseline of the industry, preventing competition below cost and improving service quality, although it is not expected to change the market structure significantly [1][3] - Price increases have a significant impact on the profitability elasticity of listed companies, but the effects vary by region and customer tier, making it difficult to generalize price increases across the board [1][6] - Major express delivery companies such as Shentong, Yunda, YTO, and ZTO have room for improvement in EPS, but volatility may increase due to recent price increases [1][7] Important but Overlooked Content - The anti-involution policy has positive implications for investors, but the long-term stability of profitability and valuation improvements are limited [4] - The impact of price increases on overall network performance varies; for instance, a price increase of 0.8 to 0.9 yuan per kilogram may have limited overall network impact (15%-20% of the national average) [4] - The express delivery industry is currently experiencing a high concentration level (CR8 at approximately 85%), indicating a clear oligopoly effect, which suggests that while policies may not alter market dynamics, they will influence the competitive baseline [3] - The success of price increases depends on specific conditions, including the need for reasonable profitability and income levels as desired by regulators [5] Future Market Expectations - Market expectations in the coming months will hinge on the implementation of price increases, including specific regions, magnitude, and sustainability [8] - As the industry enters a peak season, the early initiation of price increases in 2025 suggests that further related policies may emerge, likely serving as positive catalysts for the market [8]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks opened lower but closed higher, with all three major indices ending in the green. The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.92% or 225.64 points, closing at 24,733.45 points, with a total turnover of HKD 2,346.82 million [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index performed well, increasing by 1.55% to 5,481.25 points, indicating a healthy overall upward trend in the market driven by improving fundamentals and positive policy expectations [1] Blue Chip Performance - New Oriental Education (02057) led blue-chip stocks, rising by 6.49% to HKD 36.58, contributing 2.7 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company reported a 9.4% year-on-year revenue growth for the fourth fiscal quarter, exceeding market expectations [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) up 5.59%, Lenovo Group (00992) up 4.95%, while Xinyi Glass (00868) fell by 5.87% [2] Sector Highlights - Gold stocks surged due to lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, with Shandong Gold (01787) rising by 10.7% and Chifeng Jilong Gold (06693) up 8.89% [3] - Semiconductor stocks also saw significant gains, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) increasing by 8.69% and Shanghai Fudan (01385) up 5.66%, driven by ongoing AI demand and domestic substitution expectations [4] Stablecoin Sector - Stablecoin concept stocks continued to decline, with Yunfeng Financial (00376) down 6.91% and Guotai Junan International (01788) down 6.48%. The recent implementation of the Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong has led to stricter licensing requirements, delaying the issuance of licenses until early 2026 [5][6] Notable Stock Movements - InnoCare (02577) saw a significant increase of 30.47% after announcing a partnership with NVIDIA to promote a new power architecture for AI data centers [7] - Huajian Medical (01931) rose by 20.7% following a strategic cooperation agreement with BGI to establish a fund for innovative drug tokenization [8] - Conversely, China Resources Medical (01515) fell by 15.58% due to a profit warning indicating a potential 20% to 25% decline in profit for the upcoming six months [9] Earnings Reports - Xinjiang Xinmin Mining (03833) issued a profit warning, expecting a 50.8% decline in net profit compared to the previous year, despite a slight increase in revenue [10]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks opened lower but closed higher, with all three major indices ending in the green. The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.92% to 24,733.45 points, with a total turnover of HKD 234.68 billion [1] - The overall upward trend in Hong Kong stocks is considered healthy, shifting from previous risk-averse sentiment to improvements in fundamentals and positive policy expectations [1] Blue Chip Performance - New Oriental-S (02057) led blue-chip stocks, rising by 6.49% to HKD 36.58, contributing 2.7 points to the Hang Seng Index. Its revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter grew by 9.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) up 5.59%, Lenovo Group (00992) up 4.95%, while Xinyi Glass (00868) fell by 5.87% [2] Sector Highlights - Gold stocks performed strongly due to lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, with Shandong Gold (01787) rising by 10.7% and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) up 8.89% [3] - Semiconductor stocks also saw significant gains, with Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) up 8.69% and Shanghai Fudan (01385) up 5.66% [4] Stablecoin Sector - The stablecoin sector continued to decline, with Yunfeng Financial (00376) down 6.91% and Guotai Junan International (01788) down 6.48%. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's new regulations on stablecoins are expected to delay the issuance of licenses until early 2026 [5][6] Notable Stock Movements - InnoCare Pharma (02577) surged by 30.47% after announcing a partnership with NVIDIA to promote a new power architecture for AI data centers [7] - Huajian Medical (01931) rose by 20.7% following a strategic cooperation agreement with BGI [8] - China Resources Medical (01515) fell by 15.58% due to a profit warning, expecting a decline of 20% to 25% in profit for the upcoming six months [9]

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20250728-20250803） 一、聚焦：继续强调"反内卷"下电商快递投资机会 1、 以史为鉴："反内卷"在快递行业是否有效且能否持续推进？ 1）从 21 年经验看，义乌地区率先涨价并逐步扩散。根据邮管局数据计算，21 年 9 月义乌地区单票价格 2.94 元，环比 8 月 2.64 元上涨 0.3 元，价格同比由 8 月的-16%迅速收窄至-1%；此后，在 21 年四季度，价格仍表现坚挺，10 月 义乌地区单票收入同比回正至+2%，11-12 月同比+8%，2022 年 1-8 月依然保 持同比正增。而从全国范围看，申通、韵达、圆通单票收入环比持续提升，可 推测涨价落地并逐步扩散。21 年 9 月三家环比分别上涨 0.16、0.09 和 0.15 元， 到 11 月三家相较于 8 月分别上涨 0.51、0.33、0.46 元（当中包含旺季季节性 涨幅）。同比看，圆通 21 年 8 月实现单票同比转正，21 年 11 月三家均实现价 格同比正增。2）2021 年-22 年的经验看，行业具备价格-盈利提升的传导潜力。 最为显著的，如圆通从 21Q3 的单票扣非净利 ...

| 42 | 0 | 三七互娱 | 51.09 | -1 + | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 43 | | 常山北明 | 50.65 | -1 0 | | 44 | | 中国民航信息网络 | 46.97 | -1 + | | 45 | | 奇富科技 | 45.25 | -1 + | | 46 | | 岩山科技 | 44.28 | | | 47 | INESA | 云赛智联 | 42.59 | -1 + | | 48 | DHC | 东华软件 | 41.41 | | | 49 | | 银之杰 | 40.59 | | | 50 | | 阅文集团 | 39.68 | 1 t | 每日根据市值计算出前50名公司,美元港元按照当日汇率中间价折算 @ JIN10.COM D. 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 | 排名 | | 公司 | 市值(亿美元) | 排名变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | 台积电 | 12199.22 | | | 2 | | 腾讯控股 | 6346.48 | | | 3 | | 阿里巴巴 | 2791.93 | ...

港股8月开局不利，三大指数继续承压走低，尾盘跌幅有所扩大。截止收盘，恒生指数跌1.07%或265.52 点，报24507.81点，大市交投缩减，全日成交额为2546.74亿港元；恒生国企指数跌0.88%，报8804.42 点；恒生科技指数跌1.02%，报5397.4点。全周来看，恒指累跌3.47%，国指累跌3.78%，恒科指累跌 4.94%。 东吴证券指出，往后看，市场担心海外风险上行。一是，美元资产继续上涨，或会导致全球资金减少对 中国资产的关注；二是，对等关税截止日临近，市场预期关税博弈更偏向税率"缓"+"降"。交银国际认 为，港股市场当前流动性状态仍较为充裕，估值水平保持合理，适度的市场拥挤度也为投资者提供了较 为理想的配置窗口。 蓝筹股表现 5.71港元。 1.个别快递股逆市走高。截至收盘，中通快递-W(02057)涨7.44%，报163.2港元；极兔速递-W(01519)涨 2.52%，报10.58港元。 7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争，强化农村地区领取快 件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。据现代物流报，7月17日义乌邮管局 已率先 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market started poorly in August, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 1.07% at 24,507.81 points, and a total trading volume of 254.67 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng Index fell 3.47% over the week, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 3.78% and 4.94%, respectively [1] - Concerns about rising overseas risks are prevalent, including the increase in dollar assets potentially reducing global interest in Chinese assets [1] Blue-Chip Performance - ZTO Express (02057) led blue-chip stocks, rising 7.44% to 163.2 HKD, contributing 7.92 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included Xinyi Solar (00968) up 1.31% and Baidu Group (09888) up 1.06%, while Sinopec (00386) and PetroChina (00857) saw declines of 5.87% and 3.26%, respectively [2] Sector Highlights - The logistics sector saw a positive response to anti-competitive policies, with ZTO Express and Jitu Express (01519) both rising [3] - The photovoltaic sector was active following the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of energy-saving inspections, with several solar stocks showing gains [4] - The stablecoin sector experienced a significant downturn after the implementation of the Stablecoin Regulation in Hong Kong, with major declines in related stocks [5][6] Notable Stock Movements - Joy City Property (00207) surged 45.95% after announcing a share buyback plan at a premium price [7] - InnoCare Pharma (02577) rose 30.91% following its inclusion in NVIDIA's partner list for 800V DC power architecture [8] - NIO Inc. (09866) saw an 8.62% increase after launching its new flagship SUV model [9] - Innovent Biologics (09939) faced a 16.8% drop due to a planned share placement at a discount [10] - Sinopec's stock fell 5.87% after a profit warning indicating a significant year-on-year decline in net profit [11]