Core Viewpoint - The report from Cinda Securities recommends focusing on leading companies in the express delivery industry, particularly SF Holding and Zhongtong Express, due to expected improvements in operational and cash flow performance as the industry undergoes significant changes and price recovery [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In November, the express delivery industry experienced a year-on-year growth of 5.0% in business volume, with a cumulative total of 1,807.4 billion parcels delivered from January to November, reflecting a 14.9% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The cumulative online retail sales of physical goods reached 11.82 trillion yuan from January to November, growing by 5.7% year-on-year, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the total retail sales growth [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - In November, the business volumes for major companies were as follows: YTO Express delivered 2.886 billion parcels, Shentong Express 2.502 billion, Yunda Express 2.175 billion, and SF Holding 1.534 billion. SF Holding showed the highest growth rate at 20.13% [3]. - For the cumulative business volume from January to November, the figures were: YTO Express 28.26 billion parcels, Shentong Express 23.64 billion, Yunda Express 23.45 billion, and SF Holding 15.16 billion, with SF Holding leading in growth rate at 27.25% [3]. Group 3: Pricing Trends - The express delivery industry saw a 1.9% month-on-month increase in average pricing in November, with the average price per parcel at 7.62 yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year [4]. - SF Holding's average price per parcel increased by 0.29 yuan month-on-month to 13.47 yuan, while Shentong Express's price rose by 0.23 yuan to 2.41 yuan [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to continue growing, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce, despite a downward trend in the average value of goods per parcel [5]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the industry is leading to price recovery and a shift towards high-quality development, suggesting a potential acceleration in market differentiation among companies [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [9] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in price increases, leading to accelerated differentiation among leading companies. The average price of express delivery in November has shown signs of recovery, while the growth rate of delivery volume has significantly decreased, driving faster market share differentiation. The report is optimistic about leading companies such as Zhongtong Express and YTO Express. Additionally, SF Express has initiated a "post-advantage" policy to optimize its product structure, with expectations of a profit rebound in Q4 [2][6][16] Logistics Sector Summary - In the logistics sector, the express delivery industry saw a price recovery in November, with the average delivery price decreasing by 8.3% year-on-year. The delivery volume growth rate fell to 5.0%, down 2.9 percentage points month-on-month. Major players like YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reported varying performance, with YTO's volume increasing by 13.6% year-on-year, while Yunda's volume decreased by 4.2% [15][16] - The average daily traffic volume for coal transport in Ganci Maodu was 1,388 vehicles, a decrease of 93 vehicles from the previous week, while the average price for short-distance transport remained stable [19] Passenger Transport Sector Summary - In the passenger transport sector, domestic passenger volume showed a 4% year-on-year increase, while international passenger volume increased by 9%. The average seat occupancy rate for domestic flights improved by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and the same for international flights also increased by 0.8 percentage points [7][31] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in travel demand, with expectations of marginal revenue improvement due to tightening supply and significant cost improvements [7][29] Maritime Sector Summary - In the maritime sector, oil transportation rates have decreased, with the average VLCC-TCE rate dropping by 11.2% to $102,000 per day. The market is currently experiencing limited new cargo availability, leading to a cautious outlook. The SCFI index for foreign trade container shipping rose by 3.1% to 1,553 points, while the domestic container shipping index also saw an increase [8][55] - The report highlights the impact of the reopening of the Red Sea on long-distance shipping routes and suggests monitoring regional small and medium-sized shipping companies like Haifeng International due to changes in regional shipping patterns following the closure of Hainan Island [8][55]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for the logistics sector, specifically highlighting companies such as SF Holding and ZTO Express due to their valuation and operational resilience [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a 5% year-on-year increase in business volume in November, with some companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition. The total express delivery volume reached 18.06 billion pieces, with revenue at 137.65 billion yuan, a 3.7% decline year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand. The chemical product price index decreased by 11.5% year-on-year, indicating a challenging pricing environment [3]. - The aviation sector experienced a slight increase in flight operations, with an average of 14,421 flights per day, a 2.34% increase year-on-year. The report anticipates profit elasticity for airlines due to supply constraints and rising ticket prices [4]. - The shipping sector's container transport index increased by 0.6% week-on-week, while the shipping rates remain under pressure due to fluctuating demand. The report notes a significant year-on-year decline in shipping rates [5]. - The road and rail sector showed a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 2% decrease week-on-week. However, the Daqin Railway reported a 1.75% increase in freight volume year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The transportation index rose by 2.0% from December 13 to December 19, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.3% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing a slowdown in container shipping rates, with the CCFI index at 1124.73 points, down 24.6% year-on-year. The report highlights the need to monitor demand and pricing trends closely [22][23]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is seeing a positive trend in passenger traffic, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in October. The report expects significant profit growth in Q4 due to high load factors and rising ticket prices [58][80]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The rail sector reported a year-on-year increase in passenger traffic of 8.94% in November, while road freight volume increased by 3.57% year-on-year. The report indicates a stable outlook for both sectors [85][90].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly recommending stocks such as China Shipbuilding, China Power, and Sumec [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the first shipping industry index fund on December 19, 2025, and notes a continued increase in second-hand ship prices, with a 5-year-old VLCC price rising by $2 million to $120 million [4]. - Seasonal fluctuations are observed in freight rates, with oil and bulk carrier second-hand prices increasing. The report recommends stocks like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability due to supply constraints and increasing passenger demand, recommending stocks such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - The second-hand ship price index increased by 0.38% to 194.32 points, with a recommendation for COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4]. - VLCC freight rates decreased by 11% to $101,623 per day, while Suezmax rates increased by 9% to $78,107 per day [4]. Airline Sector - The report indicates that the global aircraft manufacturing chain is facing unprecedented challenges, with an aging fleet and supply constraints expected to continue [4]. - Airlines are projected to experience significant profitability improvements, with recommendations for stocks such as China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined for industry performance [4]. - Recommended stocks include Shentong Express and Yunda Holdings, with a focus on companies benefiting from Southeast Asian e-commerce growth [4]. Rail and Road Transport - Rail freight volume and highway truck traffic are expected to maintain steady growth, with data showing a slight decrease in freight volume [4]. - The report suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts will be key investment lines through 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the express delivery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [28]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with SF Express and YTO Express continuing to outperform the industry [2]. - The report emphasizes investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" trend, highlighting the potential for revenue and performance elasticity in the upcoming verification period [3]. - The report recommends YTO Express and Shentong Express, noting their strong performance metrics and resilience in a slowing industry [3]. - Jitu Express is also recommended due to its significant growth in Southeast Asia, which supports stable profitability in the domestic market [3]. - SF Express is viewed positively despite short-term performance pressure, with effective operational activation mechanisms driving business scale expansion [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In November, the industry completed a business volume of 18.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with a cumulative volume of 180.74 billion pieces for the year, up 14.9% [6]. - Industry revenue in November was 137.65 billion yuan, down 3.7% year-on-year, while cumulative revenue for the year reached 1,355.06 billion yuan, up 7.1% [6]. - The average revenue per piece in November was 7.62 yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year, with a cumulative average of 7.50 yuan, down 6.8% [6]. Company Performance - In November, SF Express led the industry with a business volume growth rate of 20.1%, followed by Shentong Express at 14.7% and YTO Express at 13.6% [6]. - Shentong Express reported the highest revenue growth in November at 33.1%, while YTO Express and SF Express had growth rates of 11.1% and 9.9%, respectively [6]. - The average revenue per piece for Shentong Express was 2.41 yuan, up 15.9% year-on-year, while SF Express reported 13.47 yuan, down 8.5% [6]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" trend as a key driver for performance elasticity among express delivery companies [3]. - The report notes that the capital expenditure peak for SF Express has passed, leading to a stabilization in depreciation and amortization [4]. - The industry concentration ratio (CR8) stands at 86.9%, indicating a high level of market concentration [9].

Core Insights - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. shares have increased by approximately 13% since the last earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500 [1] Recent Earnings Report - For Q3 2025, ZTO Express reported earnings of 43 cents per share, an improvement from the previous year, with total revenues reaching $1.66 billion, also up year over year [3] - The company has revised its 2025 parcel volume guidance down to 38.2 billion to 38.7 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 12.3-13.8%, compared to the previous guidance of 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion, which indicated a growth of 14-18% [3] Operational Performance - Revenue from the core express delivery business increased by 11.6% year over year, driven by a 9.8% growth in parcel volume and a 1.7% increase in parcel unit price [4] - Key account revenues surged by 141.2% year over year due to an increase in e-commerce return parcels [4] - Revenue from freight forwarding services declined by 7.4% year over year [4] Financial Metrics - Revenue from accessory sales, primarily digital thermal paper waybills, rose by 0.5% year over year [5] - Gross profit decreased by 11.4% from the previous year, with the gross margin rate falling to 24.9% from 31.2% [5] - Total operating expenses were RMB550.9 million (approximately $77.4 million), up from RMB493.0 million in the prior year [5] Share Repurchase Program - ZTO's board approved a share repurchase program with an increased aggregate value of $2.0 billion, effective through June 30, 2026 [6] - As of September 30, 2025, ZTO had repurchased 52,919,506 ADSs for $1.3 billion, leaving $0.7 billion available under the program [6] Cash Position - At the end of Q3 2025, ZTO Express had cash and cash equivalents of $1.31 billion, down from $1.85 billion at the end of the previous quarter [7] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have not made any earnings estimate revisions in the last two months [8] VGM Scores - ZTO Express has a subpar Growth Score of D, a strong Momentum Score of A, and a Value Score of B, resulting in an aggregate VGM Score of C [9] Outlook - ZTO Express holds a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy), indicating expectations for above-average returns in the coming months [10]

Core Viewpoint - SF Express has voluntarily abandoned its participation in the Douyin e-commerce return service for 2026, indicating a strategic shift in its business operations [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - SF Express is withdrawing from the return logistics market, which will now be handled by other logistics providers such as JD, Zhongtong, and YTO [1] - The decision is attributed to internal business and strategic adjustments within SF Express, reflecting ongoing pressures for business growth [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - The shift in return service responsibilities signifies a potential change in the competitive landscape of e-commerce logistics in China [1] - Other logistics companies may benefit from the opportunity to fill the gap left by SF Express in the return service market [1]

Core Insights - ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO) is experiencing strong operational efficiency and liquidity, leading to impressive share performance, suggesting it is a good time for investment [1] Factors Favoring ZTO Stock - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has been revised upward by 6.5% for the current year and by 6.6% for 2026, indicating broker confidence in the stock [2] - ZTO shares have surged 12.1% over the past 90 days, outperforming the Zacks Transportation - Services industry's growth of 2.9% [3][8] - ZTO currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), reflecting strong market sentiment [5] Growth Factors - Parcel volume growth is a significant tailwind for ZTO, with a 9.8% year-over-year increase in Q3 2024 and express delivery revenues rising 11.6% year-over-year, contributing to overall growth [6][8] - The company projects its 2025 parcel volume to be between 38.2 billion and 38.7 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 12.3-13.8% [6] Financial Health - ZTO's current ratio improved from 0.96 in Q3 2024 to 1.38 in Q3 2025, indicating sufficient funds to meet short-term obligations [7]

Core Insights - Douyin has switched its return logistics to multiple courier companies, including JD Logistics, Zhongtong, YTO, and others, starting from December 16, indicating a significant shift in its return business strategy [1] - The average daily return volume for Douyin e-commerce reaches millions of orders, presenting a lucrative market opportunity for courier companies [1][4] - The competition among courier companies for return services is intensifying, as they recognize the higher profitability of return shipments compared to regular deliveries [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The average daily return business volume in China exceeds 20 million packages, highlighting the potential for courier companies to expand their market share amid slowing growth in traditional e-commerce channels [4] - Courier companies are increasingly focusing on return services due to their higher profit margins, with return shipments generating around 4 to 5 yuan per package, compared to minimal profits or losses on regular e-commerce deliveries [2] Group 2: Operational Challenges - Douyin e-commerce is tightening its assessment of collection rates, meaning courier companies that fail to meet standards risk losing their contracts or being switched out [5] - Courier companies are hiring dedicated personnel to improve collection rates and meet the high frequency of pickup demands, indicating a significant operational shift [5] - The complexity of return logistics, including quality checks, packaging, and scheduling, poses challenges for courier companies, particularly in maintaining efficiency and managing high complaint rates [6][8] Group 3: Financial Incentives - Courier companies are offering incentives to their networks, with a reported profit share of 2.72 yuan per package, which includes a base profit and a timely pickup bonus [6] - However, achieving these financial incentives is challenging due to strict performance assessments and the need for efficient operations [6] Group 4: Industry Sentiment - There is a growing sentiment among couriers that the return process is less attractive due to low pay and high complaint rates, leading to concerns about profitability and job satisfaction [8] - The current e-commerce environment, characterized by price wars and refund policies, is causing stress across the supply chain, affecting courier companies significantly [8]

Economic News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut since 2025 [1] - Vietnam's National Assembly amended the mineral law to prohibit the export of rare earth ores starting January 1, 2026, emphasizing strict control over exploration and processing [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security held a seminar in collaboration with the International Labour Organization [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the importance of pilot innovation in manufacturing as a key link connecting innovation, technology, and industry [1] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance policy support for the retail industry's innovation and transformation during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The Ministry of Commerce will work with local governments to implement policies to stabilize foreign trade and promote market diversification [1] - The China Textile Import and Export Chamber reported that yarn and fabric exports reached $69.18 billion from January to October 2025, a 2.1% year-on-year increase [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue special government bonds due in 2025, with a total face value of CNY 400 billion for the first phase and CNY 350 billion for the second phase [1] - The National Internet Information Office is conducting a special campaign to rectify online chaos in the automotive industry [1] - The Ministry of Education reported an increase in the number of students returning from studying abroad, with 495,000 expected to return in 2024, a 19.1% increase from 2023 [1] Company News - Pop Mart announced changes in its board of directors, with new appointments effective December 10, 2025 [4] - Kweichow Moutai announced a cash dividend of CNY 23.957 per share, totaling CNY 30 billion, with the ex-dividend date on December 19 [4] - Nanjing Highway plans to invest up to CNY 9.033 billion in the construction of the Nanyang Yangtze River Bridge southern connection project [4] - ZTE Corporation is in communication with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding compliance investigations related to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act [4] - Oracle reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $16.1 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase, with cloud revenue of $8 billion, a 34% increase, but below market expectations [4] Transportation Industry - The transportation sector has shown signs of recovery, with the strong cycle sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [5] - The focus for 2026 will remain on sectors benefiting from anti-involution and high certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies [6] - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability, with rising prices and a reduction in low-price competition [7] - The airline sector has improved performance due to lower oil prices and better management of ticket pricing, with a cautious approach to aircraft procurement expected to continue [8] - The highway sector has experienced significant stock price adjustments, with a focus on high dividend yield and low debt ratio companies expected to gain more attention [9]