Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of ZTO Express to "Buy" [6] Core Views - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express achieved a revenue of RMB 11.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 2.51 billion, reflecting a 5.0% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The growth in express delivery revenue was driven by a 9.8% increase in package volume and a 1.7% increase in average price per package [1] - The company anticipates a total package volume for 2025 to be between 38.2 billion and 38.7 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [2] Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Performance - Adjusted net profit increased by 5.0% year-on-year to RMB 2.51 billion, with a revenue of RMB 11.86 billion [1] - The express delivery business generated RMB 11.02 billion in revenue, up 11.6% year-on-year, supported by a 9.8% increase in package volume [1][2] Operational Data - The company completed 9.57 billion express deliveries in Q3 2025, a 9.8% increase year-on-year, capturing a market share of 19.4% [2] - The number of collection and delivery points exceeded 31,000, with approximately 10,000 owned vehicles [2] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The core revenue per package was RMB 1.22, an increase of RMB 0.02 year-on-year, with cost efficiencies leading to a reduction in sorting and transportation costs [3] - The adjusted net profit per package was RMB 0.26, slightly down from RMB 0.27 in Q3 2024, but improved by RMB 0.05 from Q2 2025 [3] Profit Forecast - ZTO Express is expected to focus on network stability and competitive advantages, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at RMB 9.62 billion, RMB 11.02 billion, and RMB 12.08 billion respectively [4]

首次覆盖: 同建共享，行稳致远 中通快递-W(2057) 中通快递首次覆盖报告 [Table_Industry] 运输 海 外 公 司 ( 中 国 香 港 ) 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 本报告导读： 中通快递的"同建共享"理念为加盟商网络的稳定打下了坚实的基础。稳健的盈利能 力及高效的成本管控水平，将助力公司巩固行业龙头地位。 投资要点： | 财务摘要百万人民币 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 38419 | 44281 | 47107 | 51685 | 57706 | | +/-% | 9% | 15% | 6% | 10% | 12% | | 毛利润 | 11663 | 13717 | 13571 | 14952 | 16692 | | 归母净利润 | 8749 | 8817 | 9565 | 10633 | 11929 | | +/-% | 28% | 1% | 8% | 11% | 12% | | PE | 14.96 | ...

他身穿灰色西装，左边口袋上方佩戴着一个印有 " W "字样的蓝色胸针，这是他参与设计的公司 logo 。 2005 年底， 48 岁的胡向亮加入中通北京公司的经营管理团队，干起了快递。他亲自骑车送快递， 把每个网点跑通。 做快递前，胡向亮养过蜂、开过矿、办过厂，也在乡镇企业参与过管理。他说， "三百六十行，我干 了三百行。" 江湖气的管理哲学和快递行业的实战底色在胡向亮身上共生。 61 岁这一年，胡向亮接到了集团董事 会的新任务，去做云仓，拼上中通快递"生态圈"重要的一块拼图，其他四个生态是中通快运、中通国 际、中通金融、中通商业。 2018 年，胡向亮成立中通云仓科技公司（下称中通云仓科技），从零开始，打造出一家覆盖电商、 B2B 、跨境的仓储管理、干线物流和城市配送，再横向扩张到农特流通、中药流通、直播电商运营等 多个板块的公司，成为一家全域物流供应链服务提供商。 「IPO全观察」 栏目聚焦首次公开募股公司，报道企业家创业经历与成功故事，剖析公司商业模式和 经营业绩，并揭秘VC、CVC等各方资本力量对公司的投资加持。 作者丨赵晓晓 编辑丨关雎 图 源丨 中通云仓科技 胡向亮 身上是有些江湖气的，聊到有意思 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profit elasticity, and creating favorable competition opportunities in the medium to long term [15] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in the oil transportation market's outlook for Q4 2025 [15] - The shipping market is anticipated to recover, supported by environmental regulations limiting the operation of older fleets and the upcoming production of the West Manganese iron ore by the end of 2025 [15] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In October 2025, the express delivery industry achieved a business volume of 17.6 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with revenue reaching 131.67 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year [4][24] - Major players like YTO, Shentong, and Yunda showed varied growth rates, with YTO's volume increasing by 12.78% and Shentong by 3.97%, while Yunda's volume decreased by 5.11% [4][30] - The industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, with significant improvements in single-ticket revenue due to price increases driven by the de-involution trend [4] Shipping and Ports - VLCC freight rates reached a new high of $136,843 per day, the highest since Q2 2020, driven by tight available capacity and stable inquiry rhythms [8] - The Capesize bulk carrier spot freight rates surpassed $30,000 per day, reflecting a 20% increase over the past week, supported by seasonal demand recovery and strong import demand from China [8] - The BDI index increased by 7.1% to 2225 points, indicating a robust recovery in the bulk shipping market [9] Aviation - In October 2025, civil aviation transported approximately 68 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and cargo/mail transport reached 917,000 tons, up 13.3% [58] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 86.88%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [62] Road and Rail - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, national freight logistics operated smoothly, with rail freight reaching 81.8 million tons, a 0.17% increase week-on-week [14] - In October 2025, road freight volume was 3.706 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.08% [64] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics landscape is evolving, with companies like Shenzhen International expected to benefit from the transformation of logistics parks, providing performance elasticity [15] - The industry is witnessing a slowdown in competition, with companies like Debang and Aneng Logistics showing significant profit improvements due to strategic transformations [15]

中通快递 20251120 摘要 公司实施反过度竞争政策，旨在稳定快递行业价格，提升服务质量，实 现高质量发展。通过优化取件模式和精益流程管理，提高服务质量和成 本效率，并持续推进智能技术应用，降低运输和分拣单位成本。 公司未来发展战略聚焦于提升产品和服务能力，包括建立端到端质量管 理体系、深化最后一公里配送能力、优化网络政策和激励机制、提高端 到端成本效率与协同效应，以及维护公平性与基层利益。 公司正建立仓储云平台和最后一公里配送网络，提供一体化物流解决方 案，并计划涉足建模、制造、农业等领域，为具体应用场景提供高效解 决方案，以实现差异化竞争优势。 尽管行业量增长放缓且微观经济复苏存在不确定性，公司仍对快递及物 流行业长期前景保持乐观，预计全年包裹量同比增长 12.3%至 13.8%，并强调规模效应和合作伙伴网络稳定性的重要性。 第三季度，公司包裹量同比增长 9.8%，调整后净收入增加 5%，核心快 递业务平均单价增加 2 分钱，总收入增长 11.1%，但毛利润下降 11.4%，营业利润下降 15.4%。 Q&A 公司在 2025 年第三季度的业绩表现如何？ 2025 年第三季度，中国快递行业经历了稳定增 ...

Summary of ZTO Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTO Express (ZTO.N) - **Industry**: Transportation & Infrastructure in Hong Kong/China Key Points and Arguments Market Share and Competition - ZTO has gained market share in Q4 2025, achieving low-teens year-over-year volume growth quarter-to-date, outperforming the industry due to a decrease in low-value parcels in the market [4][12] - Management believes that market competition has improved, with leading players resuming share gains, which was a positive surprise compared to expectations of stable market shares due to customer lock-up [2][4] - ZTO is not participating in aggressive pricing competition, which is deemed irrational for smaller players with thin margins and weak balance sheets [5][12] Financial Performance - 3Q25 net profit exceeded expectations due to tax credits, while gross profit and operating profit missed estimates [3] - Adjusted EBITDA was in line with expectations, and excluding tax benefits, unit profit increased quarter-over-quarter [3] - The 2025 volume outlook was slightly lowered due to a slowdown in market volume growth [3] Earnings Forecasts and Price Target - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 3%, 6%, and 4% respectively, reflecting the 3Q25 results and healthier average selling price dynamics [6][15] - The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumption was slightly lowered to 13.2% from 13.3% due to a decrease in the cost of debt [6][16] - The price target has been increased by 5% to US$25.00, implying a 13x 2026 estimated P/E, which is below the domestic peer average of 16x [6][16] Shareholder Returns and Capital Expenditure - ZTO expects higher absolute shareholder returns year-over-year, assuming no irrational competition [14] - Capital expenditure guidance for 2025 is approximately Rmb5.5-6 billion, expected to decline to Rmb5 billion in 2026 [14] Risks and Opportunities - Risks still exist, but the company is optimistic about achieving both market share gain and profit growth in 2026 [5][29] - The retail business handles over 9 million daily parcels, representing 8-9% of total volume, with management targeting a higher retail parcel mix in 2026 [13] - Potential mergers and acquisitions are being considered as a growth option [14] Valuation and Investment Thesis - ZTO is viewed as a long-term winner in the industry, with attractive risk-reward dynamics, trading at 11x 2026 estimated P/E and a forward free cash flow yield of 7-8% compared to a peer average of 1% [7][29] - The company’s market leadership in volume and unit profitability supports a positive outlook, with a moderate probability of achieving both market share gain and profit growth [24][29] Additional Important Information - The effective tax rate is expected to be 18%, with a significant reduction in tax expenses noted [17] - The company’s market cap is currently Rmb107,605 million, with an average daily trading value of US$10 million [9] - The stock price closed at US$18.97 on November 19, 2025, indicating a 32% upside to the new price target [9] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the ZTO Express conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market dynamics, and future outlook.

E-commerce and Retail - ByteDance integrates its Chinese e-commerce, lifestyle services, and advertising engineering teams into a new "China Transaction and Advertising" department to enhance R&D efficiency and competitiveness in the e-commerce sector [1] - Pinduoduo reports Q3 revenue of 108.28 billion yuan, a 9% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising 17% to 29.33 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in revenue growth and a strategic shift towards long-term value over short-term profits [2] - Vipshop achieves Q3 net revenue of 21.4 billion yuan, a 3.4% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit rising 14.6%, reflecting improved platform activity despite the need for ongoing reforms in core business areas [3] - JD.com announces the launch of an independent app for its food delivery service, aiming to capture a larger share of the instant delivery market and enhance user engagement through new features [3] - Hema's founder, Hou Yi, announces the closure of several physical stores for the pet food brand "Paiteshengsheng," citing a mismatch between operational performance and initial goals, while shifting focus to online business [4] - Xibei raises salaries for frontline employees by an average of 500 yuan per person per month to boost morale and service quality amid recent controversies [5][6] Logistics and Supply Chain - The State Post Bureau reports that in October, express delivery revenue reached 131.67 billion yuan, a 4.7% year-on-year increase, with business volume growing by 6.5%, highlighting the increasing reliance on online shopping [6] - Flash Delivery reports Q3 revenue of 1.005 billion yuan, a slight decline year-on-year, but net profit increases by 83.6% to 43.7 million yuan, indicating effective cost control [7] - ZTO Express announces Q3 revenue of 11.86 billion yuan, an 11.1% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit growing by 5% to 2.51 billion yuan, reflecting strong market competitiveness [8] Innovation and Investment - Keling AI reports Q3 revenue exceeding 300 million yuan, with Kuaishou's total revenue growing by 14.2% to 35.6 billion yuan, indicating progress in AI commercialization and strengthening competitiveness in live commerce [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved a year-on-year growth of 9.8% in parcel volume for Q3 2025, driven by a strong performance in the bulk parcel segment, which saw nearly 50% growth year-on-year [3][6] - The company adjusted its full-year parcel volume growth target down to 12.3% to 13.8%, reflecting a more cautious outlook while emphasizing quality and market share expansion [5] - The report suggests that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, particularly in the context of e-commerce and the ongoing "anti-involution" trend, which shifts focus from quantity to quality [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, ZTO Express reported total revenue of 34.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, with adjusted net profit of 6.818 billion yuan, down 8.1% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.865 billion yuan, up 11.1% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of 2.506 billion yuan, up 5.0% year-on-year [2] Operational Metrics - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express handled 9.573 billion parcels, marking a 9.8% increase year-on-year, with a market share of approximately 19.4%, maintaining the leading position in the industry [3] - The average revenue per parcel in Q3 was 1.15 yuan, reflecting a 2.3% increase year-on-year, attributed to improved pricing dynamics due to the "anti-involution" trend [3] Cost and Profitability - The cost per parcel in Q3 was approximately 0.59 yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year, with significant reductions in line-haul and sorting costs [4] - The adjusted net profit per parcel was 0.262 yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, but up 25.6% quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved profitability trends [4] Future Outlook - The report projects adjusted net profits for ZTO Express to be 9.870 billion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of -2.08%, 14.21%, and 11.11% for the following years [7] - The company is expected to leverage its scale and operational efficiencies to achieve stable growth in both parcel volume and profitability [7]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtong Express reported a third-quarter revenue of 11.86 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3% [1] - The significant growth in profitability is attributed to the "anti-involution" policy leading to an increase in express delivery prices [1] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the third quarter was 2.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.2% [1] - Adjusted net profit for the third quarter was 2.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.9% [1] - For the first three quarters, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.46 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while the adjusted net profit was 6.73 billion yuan, down 9.2% year-on-year [1] Volume and Pricing Trends - In the third quarter, the company completed a delivery volume of 9.57 billion parcels, with a year-on-year increase of 9.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.8% [1] - The average revenue per parcel in the third quarter was 1.22 yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.02 yuan [1] - The company expects a 10.1% quarter-on-quarter increase in delivery volume for the fourth quarter, driven by the traditional e-commerce peak season [1] Cost and Profitability - The average cost per parcel in the third quarter was 0.91 yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.09 yuan [2] - The adjusted operating profit per parcel was 0.25 yuan, down 0.08 yuan year-on-year but stable quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company anticipates further cost reduction potential in the long term due to economies of scale and automation [2] Industry Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to shift the express delivery industry from a focus on volume growth to high-quality development [2] - The overall growth rate of delivery volume in the industry is slowing, with a reported year-on-year increase of 7.9% in October [2] - Zhongtong Express, as a market leader with a 19.4% market share, is expected to be less affected by the reduction in low-value parcel demand [2] Valuation Adjustments - The profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised by 10%, 5%, and 2% respectively, with adjusted net profit forecasts also increased [3] - The valuation multiple has been lowered to 15.2x for 2025E PE, and the target price has been reduced by 10% to 185.9 HKD / 23.9 USD [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates, reaching a new high, driven by a notable decline in Russian oil exports, which has created additional demand for oil transportation from the Middle East to India and China [3][4] - The report suggests a positive outlook for the transportation sector, particularly in shipping and aviation, with recommendations for specific companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring seasonal trends in freight rates, particularly the potential for a "not-so-dull" off-season from December to February [3] Industry Overview - The transportation index has decreased by 5.00%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points, with the express delivery sector showing the smallest decline at -2.75% and the public transport sector experiencing the largest drop at -9.35% [4][11] - The shipping sector has shown mixed performance, with the Baltic Dry Index increasing by 5.67% while the coastal dry bulk freight index fell by 3.47% [4][11] - The report notes that the average freight rate for VLCCs has risen by 5% week-on-week, reaching $126,371 per day, with the Middle East to Far East route hitting a new high of $138,144 per day [3][4] Shipping Sector Insights - The report indicates that the average freight rate for the fourth quarter is approaching $99,000 per day, marking it as one of the highest quarterly averages in history [3] - The decline in Russian oil exports has been significant, dropping from nearly 4 million barrels per day to around 3 million barrels per day, which has increased demand for oil from the Middle East [3][4] - The report also highlights the recovery of chartering activities following the Bahri conference, with shipowners beginning to control capacity due to tightening supply [3] Aviation Sector Insights - The report discusses the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain, with an aging fleet expected to persist over the next 5-10 years, leading to constrained supply [3] - It anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability as capacity is allocated to international routes, suggesting a potential golden era for airlines [3] - Recommendations include major airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from these trends [3] Express Delivery Sector Insights - The express delivery industry is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price recovery leading to utility-like profitability, continued competitive pressure, or higher-level consolidation [3] - Companies such as Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted as having strong potential due to their competitive advantages and market positioning [3] High Dividend Stocks in Transportation - The report lists high dividend yield stocks in the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry with a yield of 8.08% and China Railway with a yield of 3.95% [21] - The focus on high dividend stocks is seen as a stable investment strategy amidst market fluctuations [21]