本文源自：金融界AI电报 港股收盘，恒指收涨0.42%，科指收涨0.48%，内房股大涨，万科企业(02202.HK)收涨13.2%，融创中国 (01918.HK)涨近9%，中国金茂(00817.HK)涨8.55%。 ...

地产股突然异动了！ 12月10日，地产股午后异动上涨，万科A冲击涨停，最高超过27亿资金封死涨停板，财信发展、华夏幸福、 金地集团、保利发展、绿地控股等跟涨。港股万科企业一度大涨超19%。 那么，究竟发生了什么？行业层面，关于房贷贴息的消息此前已经多次在市场上传播。另外，涉及万科债务重 组和纾困等消息于近期频繁传出，万科境内债集体大涨，多只涨超30%，并触发临停。 地产股爆发 上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 以关注更大范围推出的可能性。 方正证券认为，房地产行业整体仍处于调整期，2025年1—10月新房销售中房贷首付比例达68.22%，显示居 民购房杠杆率偏高。行业利润总额为负，平均PE达141.01，估值偏高，但市场预期逐步企稳。 房贷贴息政策有望分步推进，优先覆盖新增首套房贷，逐步向高风险存量贷款延伸。政策目标是通过财政贴息 收敛房贷利率与租金回报率利差，稳定房价预期，带动刚需和改善型需求温和释放，而非强刺激销量。银行息 差压力缓解，资产质量有望改善。 方正证券表示，当前，财政空间充足，超长期特别国债扩容及央行购债操作为政策落地提供资金支持；政策 ...

此外，彭博社的报道进一步勾勒了纾困框架，提及中金公司正协助深圳方面制定包含债务重组、资产出 售、引入政策性资金等在内的综合方案。这并非无先例可循，此前深圳国资已通过收购项目、提供贷款 等方式支持万科，龙岗区也曾以类似模式化解其他大型项目的困境。虽然方案强调市场化原则，但地方 政府与中央的协调路径已清晰可见。 因此，本次地产股的异动，本质上是信用债市场情绪"180度逆转"在股票市场的映射。它向市场传递出 一个清晰信号：对于具备系统重要性的优质房企，其流动性困境的解决已进入由政府协调、市场化方式 执行的"攻坚阶段"。这显著降低了行业的尾部风险，从而引发了基于风险重估的板块性修复。 不过，今日行情的最大看点，还是海南自贸港相关概念的全面爆发。其驱动逻辑是多维且坚实的：首先 是政策预期步入兑现阶段，全岛封关运作这一里程碑事件临近，提升了市场对制度红利释放的想象力。 其次是产业逻辑契合年末主线，海南作为免税消费和文旅复苏的前沿，与正在走强的商贸零售、社会服 务板块形成共振。最后是资金层面的印证，近期宽基ETF持续吸金，表明机构资金正在对包括区域战略 龙头在内的核心资产进行系统性配置。 在我看来，比单一热点更值得深入探讨 ...

贵金属商品方面，现货白银午后继续发力，再度刷新历史新高，盘中最高触及61.607美元/盎司。现货 白银今年以来涨幅已高达112%，而现货黄金的涨幅为60%，白银涨幅几乎是黄金的两倍。 12月10日，A股三大指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，沪指跌0.23%，深成指涨0.29%，创业板指跌0.02%。全 市场成交额1.79万亿元，较上一个交易日缩量1261亿元，超2800只个股下跌。 板块方面，海南板块持续走强，海南发展（002163）、罗牛山（000735）、海南瑞泽（002596）等多股 涨停。零售概念表现活跃，永辉超市（601933）3连板，茂业商业（600828）、中央商场（600280）2连 板。房地产板块涨幅居前，世联行（002285）、万科A涨停。CPO板块走势强劲，立昂微（605358）、 中瓷电子（003031）、长飞光纤（601869）等多股涨停，CPO概念龙头新易盛（300502）午后一度涨近 5%，再创历史新高，总市值突破4300亿元，收盘涨幅超3%，最新市值4297亿元。下跌方面，银行板块 走弱，招商银行、农业银行下挫。 其他热门个股方面，摩尔线程午后涨幅一度达到27%，截至收盘回落至16.98 ...

Core Viewpoint - Vanke's domestic bonds have seen significant price increases, indicating strong market performance and investor confidence in the company's financial health [1] Group 1: Bond Performance - Vanke's bond "21 Vanke 06" rose over 42% [1] - Bond "23 Vanke 01" increased by more than 40% [1] - Bond "21 Vanke 04" saw a rise of over 35% [1] - Bond "22 Vanke 02" increased by more than 30% [1] - Bond "21 Vanke 02" rose by over 28% [1] - Bond "22 Vanke 04" increased by more than 24% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown significant recovery, particularly with Vanke bonds experiencing substantial rebounds in their prices [1] Group 1: Vanke Bonds - Vanke bonds such as "21 Vanke 06" increased by over 42% [1] - "23 Vanke 01" rose by more than 40% [1] - "21 Vanke 04" saw an increase of over 35% [1] - "22 Vanke 02" grew by more than 30% [1] - "21 Vanke 02" increased by over 28% [1] - "22 Vanke 04" rose by more than 24% [1] Group 2: Industrial and Financial Bonds - Industrial and financial bonds like "24 Industrial Finance 04" increased by over 4% [1] - "23 Industrial Finance 08", "24 Industrial Finance 02", and "24 Industrial Finance 06" each rose by more than 2% [1]

Core Points - The Xinhua 500 Index closed at 5067.19 points on December 10, with a slight decline of 0.04% [1] - The index experienced minor adjustments during the day, reaching a high of 5075.65 points and a low of 5017.86 points, with a total trading volume of 552 billion yuan [1][3] Component Stocks - Notable gainers among component stocks included Yonghui Supermarket, Vanke A, Lianang Micro, and Zhonggong Education, all of which hit the daily limit [3] - Conversely, Zhongke Shuguang faced a limit down, with Hongyuan Green Energy and Sunshine Power also experiencing significant declines [3] Index Information - The Xinhua 500 Index is published by the National Financial Information Platform and is maintained by Xinhua Index (Beijing) Co., Ltd., measuring the price levels of major large and medium-cap stocks in the A-share market [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.29%. The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.02%, and the Northbound 50 Index dropped by 0.85% [1] - The total market turnover was 1.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 126 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - Real estate stocks saw significant afternoon gains, with Vanke A hitting the daily limit [1] - Education, CPO, and semiconductor sectors experienced afternoon rallies, while the Hainan Free Trade Zone and retail sectors remained strong throughout the day [1] - The photovoltaic, superhard materials, server, and banking sectors underwent adjustments [1] ETF Movements - Real estate ETFs showed strong performance, with the Yinhua Fund Real Estate ETF, Huabao Fund Real Estate ETF, and Southern Fund Real Estate ETF rising by 3.79%, 3.73%, and 3.09% respectively [1] - Cross-border QDII funds also increased, with Invesco Great Wall Fund NASDAQ Technology ETF and Invesco Great Wall Fund S&P Consumer ETF rising by 2.18% and 1.7% respectively [1] - The engineering machinery sector saw gains, with the Dacheng Fund Engineering Machinery ETF increasing by 2.23% [1] - The satellite sector rose again, with the China Merchants Fund Satellite Industry ETF up by 1.69% [1] - The big data sector weakened, with the Big Data ETF falling by 2% [1] - The banking sector declined, with the China Securities Bank ETF dropping by 1.92% [1] - The Hong Kong dividend index continued to decline, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF and the other Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF both down by 1.6% [1]

Group 1 - Vanke's bonds experienced a strong rebound on December 10, with five domestic bonds triggering temporary suspension of trading; "22 Vanke 04" rose over 42%, while "22 Vanke 02", "21 Vanke 06", and "21 Vanke 04" increased by over 30%, and "22 Vanke 06" rose by 29.99% [2] - Vanke A and H shares also saw significant gains, with Vanke A (000002.SZ) trading at 5.25 CNY per share, up 10.06%, and Vanke Enterprises (02202.HK) rising by 13.77% to 3.8 HKD per share [2] - Recent developments regarding Vanke's bond extension have emerged, with a summary of proposals for the "22 Vanke MTN004" first bondholder meeting released on December 5 [2] Group 2 - Proposal one suggests extending the principal repayment period by 12 months, with the adjusted repayment date set for December 15, 2026, and no compound interest during the extension period; the coupon rate remains unchanged during the extension [3] - Proposal two requires normal payment of interest accrued before the extension and additional credit enhancement measures, including guarantees from Shenzhen Metro Group or other acceptable Shenzhen state-owned enterprises [3] - Proposal three is similar to proposal two regarding interest payments but has different credit enhancement requirements, stating that corresponding credit enhancement measures must be provided for the bond extension [3]

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 10 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 联系人 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 发改委支持 REITs 底层资产扩围，成交继续边际走弱 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（25/11/29-25/12/5） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数上升 0.4%、深证成指上升 1.3%、创业板指上升 1.9%、沪深 300 上升 1.3%、房地产（申万）下跌 2.2%。个股方面，涨跌幅 前五的分别为：中国武夷(+10.2%)、华联控股(+7.4%)、华夏幸福(+7.1%)、 宁波富达(+5.7%)、财信发展(+5.6%)，涨跌幅后五的分别为：三湘印象 (-12.9%)、ST 中迪(-11.5%)、沙河股份(-8.7%)、深振业 A(-8.4%)、新华 联(-8.3%)。 板块表现： 数据跟 ...