AI基金富达悦享红利优选混合A（020493）披露2025年一季报，第一季度基金利润268.05万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0271元。报告期内，基金净值 增长率为2.74%，截至一季度末，基金规模为8352.86万元。 该基金属于偏股混合型基金。截至4月21日，单位净值为0.971元。基金经理是聂毅翔和周文群。 基金管理人在一季报中表示，我们对权益市场的长期前景保持乐观，特别是随着宏观政策转向，我们看到国家稳增长的决心非常大，执行力也非常强，后续 政策将持续落地直至经济基本面出现有效改观。我们认为在国际宏观不确定性增加以及中国经济增长模式转型的背景下，高质量分红公司将展现出明显的跨 周期风险收益优势，给投资者带来长期更好的投资体验。 我们非常看好红利资产在一个完整市场周期中的总体表现，特别是随着中国进入低利率时代，红利资产的稀缺性将会凸显。我们认为低利率环境将持续，以 支持实体经济的修复。随着无风险利率持续趋势性下行，可提供确定性股息收入的高质量红利资产将继续受到投资者青睐。我们将持续跟踪宏观数据与组合 持仓上市公司的基本面变化。 截至4月21日，富达悦享红利优选混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为-0 ...

Group 1 - The core index, the China Securities Hong Kong-Shenzhen New Generation Consumption Theme Index, opened at 1719.01 points and has seen a decline of 16.03% over the past month, an increase of 9.98% over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 5.99% [1][2] - The index consists of 50 listed companies from the food and beverage, apparel, leisure, and other consumer goods and services sectors that meet the characteristics of new generation consumption, reflecting the overall performance of these companies in the mainland and Hong Kong markets [1][2] - The index's top ten holdings include Xiaomi Group-W (13.43%), Tencent Holdings (10.83%), Meituan-W (7.87%), Kuaishou-W (7.48%), Pop Mart (6.56%), Yum China (6.43%), Anta Sports (6.29%), China Duty Free Group (3.33%), GoerTek (2.64%), and Shenzhou International (2.23%) [1][2] Group 2 - The market segment distribution of the index shows that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange accounts for 71.66%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for 18.41%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange for 9.93% [1][2] - In terms of industry composition, discretionary consumption accounts for 41.55%, communication services for 33.35%, information technology for 19.59%, staple consumption for 3.85%, and healthcare for 1.64% [2] - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year, and special adjustments may occur under certain circumstances [2]

证 券 研 究 报 告 申洲国际（02313）2024 年报点评 强推（维持） 2024 年顺利收官，收入利润表现亮眼 目标价：82.50 港元 事项： ❖ 公司公布 2024 年年报。2024 年，公司实现营收 286.6 亿元，同比+14.8%，归 母净利润 62.4 亿元，同比+36.9%。公司 24 年末派息 1.28 港元/股，考虑中期 股息，全年累计派息 2.53 港元/股，派息比例为 55.8%，按 4 月 11 日收盘价 计，对应股息率 5.2%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 28,663 | 32,147 | 35,564 | 38,825 | | 同比增速(%) | 14.7% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 9.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 6,241 | 6,631 | 7,431 | 8,231 | | 同比增速(%) | 36.9% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6][5]. Core Views - The controlling shareholder, Mr. Ma, has increased his stake in the company by 450,000 shares, bringing his total holdings to 637 million shares, which represents 42.39% of the company [1]. - The changes in tariffs are seen as a potential opportunity for the company to enhance its market share, with a short-term impact on the supply chain [2][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a high capacity utilization rate and continue its positive development momentum, with plans to optimize its overseas production bases and improve supply chain efficiency [4]. Summary by Sections - **Shareholder Activity**: Mr. Ma Jianrong has increased his holdings by 450,000 shares, totaling 637 million shares, or 42.39% of the company [1]. - **Tariff Impact**: The report suggests that while the supply chain may bear some tariff costs in the short term, the long-term outlook for leading supply chains is positive, with potential for increased market share and profitability [2][3]. - **Operational Strategy**: The company plans to enhance its production capabilities and market responsiveness by optimizing its overseas bases, investing in new materials, and diversifying its product offerings to meet consumer demand [4]. - **Financial Forecast**: The report maintains its earnings forecast, projecting revenues of 32.4 billion RMB, 36.6 billion RMB, and 41.3 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with net profits of 6.6 billion RMB, 7.4 billion RMB, and 8.4 billion RMB respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 65.17 based on a PE of 14 times for 2025, which is considered the lowest level in the past decade [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is one of the largest vertically integrated knitwear manufacturers globally, with strong profitability driven by several advantages, including robust R&D capabilities, integrated production efficiency, and diversified overseas factory layout [2]. - The company has a manageable risk profile regarding tariffs, with only 16% of its exports going to the U.S., and potential tariff impacts on overall orders estimated to be less than 3% [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of major clients, with positive trends in orders from Uniqlo, Adidas, and Nike, indicating a favorable short-term outlook [4]. Summary by Sections Company Highlights - The company has established long-term partnerships with major global brands such as Nike, Uniqlo, and Adidas, enhancing its market position [15]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 28.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.79%, and a net profit of CNY 6.24 billion, up 36.94% [15]. Investment Logic - The company’s diversified production capacity and collaboration with major clients provide a competitive edge, with the potential to increase market share amid industry disruptions [3]. - The company's management has shown confidence in its future by increasing their shareholdings during recent market fluctuations [3][4]. Short-term Orders - The company is expected to see improved order conditions due to the recovery of its core clients, with Uniqlo and Adidas showing positive sales trends [4]. - The long-term market share is anticipated to grow as major clients focus on core suppliers, reducing the number of suppliers they work with [4]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company’s EPS is projected to be CNY 4.39, CNY 4.91, and CNY 5.48 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE ratio of 11 times for 2025 [5]. - The report indicates that the company’s recent stock price decline presents a buying opportunity, with a target valuation based on a PE of 14 times for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 65.17 based on a PE of 14 times for 2025, which is considered the lowest level in the past decade [5]. Core Views - The company is recognized as one of the largest vertically integrated knitwear manufacturers globally, with a strong client base including Nike, Uniqlo, and Adidas. Its high profitability is attributed to several advantages, including strong R&D capabilities, integrated production efficiency, and diversified overseas factory locations [2][15]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of major clients, leading to improved order conditions. The long-term market share is anticipated to grow as major clients focus on core suppliers, reducing the number of suppliers [4][11]. Summary by Sections Company Highlights - The company has established itself as a leading vertically integrated knitwear manufacturer, with a significant portion of its production in China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, accounting for 47%, 27%, and 26% of capacity respectively [2][55]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 28.66 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.79%, and a net profit of RMB 6.24 billion, up 36.94% [15][25]. Investment Logic - The company has a manageable risk profile compared to its peers, with only 16% of its exports going to the U.S. The potential impact of tariffs is estimated to be less than 3% on overall orders [3][63]. - The recent tariff situation is expected to accelerate the exit of smaller competitors, allowing the company to capture additional market share due to its stronger financial and operational resilience [3][64]. Short-term Orders - The company is optimistic about order improvements from its four major clients, with Uniqlo and Adidas showing positive trends. Adidas is expected to recover its brand strength, which will benefit the company [4][11]. - The long-term market share is projected to increase as major clients reduce their supplier base, enhancing operational efficiency [4][11]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company’s EPS is forecasted to be RMB 4.39, RMB 4.91, and RMB 5.48 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE of 11 times for 2025, indicating a significant valuation opportunity [5][9]. - The report suggests that the recent stock price decline presents a buying opportunity, with a target price set at HKD 65.17 [5].

美国耶鲁大学预算实验室4月10日发布的最新研究估算显示，美国的关税政策将使美国家庭平均每年损 失4700美元。报告显示，关税对服装和纺织品的影响尤为显著，短期内消费者将面临服装价格上涨64% 的局面。长期来看，服装价格将上涨27%。 据统计，目前美国只有2.5%的服装和1%的鞋类为本土制造，越南等亚洲国家则是美国服装鞋帽的主要 进口来源地。越南纺织服装协会的数据显示，2024年越南纺织品服装出口额达440亿美元，美国是其最 大市场，耐克、露露乐蒙等服装品牌超过35%的产能聚集在越南。随着美国所谓"对等关税"措施即将实 施，这些服装品牌将被迫提价。 智通财经APP获悉，4月11日，工业和信息化部办公厅发布关于开展纺织服装特色产业集群建设工作的 通知。 对重点培育的纺织服装特色产业集群，工业和信息化部统筹推动集群建设工作，加强集群间产业对接， 推动集群数字化转型升级，强化产业集群创意设计能力，提升特色产品附加值，提高特色产业集群的竞 争优势。 银河证券发布行业周报称，国内制造业服企布局从产能规模增长逐步向高质量增长转变，发力高质量客 户和中高端产品，而高价值产品价格具有一定的调控空间。纺织服企的国际化产能布局优势 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the textile and apparel industry, highlighting the potential for recovery and growth in domestic demand in 2025 [5][12]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector has underperformed the market recently, with the SW textile and apparel index dropping by 5.7% from April 7 to April 11, lagging behind the SW All A index by 1.3 percentage points [6]. - Anta's acquisition of the German brand Jack Wolfskin is seen as a strategic move to enhance its outdoor segment, with the brand expected to complement Anta's existing portfolio [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery as a key investment theme for 2025, particularly in light of changing international trade dynamics [12]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector has shown weakness, with significant declines in both the apparel and textile manufacturing indices [6][9]. - Recent data indicates a 3.3% year-on-year increase in retail sales for clothing and textiles, totaling 262.4 billion yuan in January and February [30]. Company Developments - Anta's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with a notable increase in sales across its brands, including a 70% increase in other brands [11]. - The report highlights the strong financial performance of Huayi Group, which reported a 19.35% increase in revenue for 2024, reaching 24 billion yuan [11]. Industry Trends - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the textile supply chain, noting a significant imbalance in global tariff structures, particularly affecting Chinese exports [13][14]. - The cross-border e-commerce sector is adapting to tariff challenges, with companies focusing on diversifying supply chains and reducing costs [16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in quality domestic brands that are poised for recovery, particularly in the sports and outdoor segments, as well as in home textiles and children's clothing [5][12]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Anta Sports, Bosideng, and Huayi Group, among others [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that major US consumer companies are cautious about future fiscal year expectations, primarily due to tariff pressures and consumer downgrading trends in the US market. However, companies like Walmart and Lululemon express a more optimistic outlook for the Chinese market [3][23] - Recommendations include buying leading sportswear brand Anta Sports (02020), and considering Li Ning (02331), Xtep International (01368), and Tabo (06110) for buying or holding. Additionally, long-term prospects are favorable for resilient leading manufacturers such as Shenzhou International (02313), Weixing Co., Ltd. (002003), and Huali Group (300979) [3][23] Summary by Sections US Consumer Giants Performance - Walmart's FY26 revenue growth guidance is 3-4%, with a same-store sales increase of 23.1% in FY25Q4, driven by strong e-commerce and new store openings [10][13] - Target expects FY25 revenue growth of about 1%, with same-store sales remaining flat, facing pressure from tariffs and operational costs [14][15] - Dollar General anticipates FY25 revenue growth of 3.4-4.4%, with core consumers facing economic challenges and a notable trend of consumer downgrading [17][18] - Nike projects a mid-double-digit revenue decline for FY25Q4, with significant inventory issues and a 15% revenue drop in the Greater China region [19][20] - Lululemon expects FY25 revenue growth of 5-7%, with a strong growth forecast of 25-30% in the Greater China region [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach towards US consumer giants due to tariff pressures and consumer behavior changes, while highlighting positive growth prospects in China for certain brands [3][23]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for leading sports brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning, indicating strong operational resilience and growth potential in a challenging retail environment [5][27]. Core Insights - The sports industry demonstrated strong operational resilience in 2024, with major companies like Anta Sports, Li Ning, Xtep International, and 361 Degrees showing varied revenue growth rates of +13.58%, +3.90%, -5.36%, and +19.59% respectively [1][7]. - The report anticipates continued stable growth for leading sports brands in 2025, with projections for Anta's main brand to maintain high single-digit growth and FILA to achieve mid-single-digit growth [13][14]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - Anta Sports and FILA maintained steady operations, with revenue reaching 70.826 billion CNY, while 361 Degrees capitalized on lower-tier markets, achieving a revenue increase of 19.59% to 10.074 billion CNY [1][10]. - Li Ning's revenue remained stable, with a focus on e-commerce and product diversification, leading to a 10.3% increase in online sales [9]. Marketing and Inventory Management - Anta Sports increased its sales expense ratio to 36.21%, reflecting higher investments in new product promotions and channel expansion [2][16]. - Inventory turnover days improved for Xtep International, decreasing by 10 days to 79 days, while 361 Degrees saw an increase in turnover days due to strategic inventory buildup for e-commerce [2][17]. Manufacturing Sector - Major manufacturers like Wah Lee Group and Shenzhou International reported revenue growth of 19.35% and 14.79% respectively, driven by increased demand and efficient operations [3][22]. - The overall profitability of the manufacturing sector improved, with Wah Lee's net profit margin at 15.36% and Shenzhou's gross margin increasing to 28.10% [20][21]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading sports brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning are well-positioned to outperform the industry due to their operational strengths and market strategies [5][27]. - For the manufacturing sector, Wah Lee Group is recommended as a strong player, with potential for increased market share amid industry consolidation due to external pressures [5][27].