Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and the delay in the release of November non-farm payroll data have significantly narrowed market expectations for a rate cut in December, leading to a substantial pullback in U.S. stocks. Concerns over the AI bubble and other factors have also contributed to this decline. However, the weak non-farm data from September and the tightening of financial conditions due to the stock market adjustment have rekindled expectations for a rate cut. Looking ahead, in the absence of important data, the company leans towards the Fed pausing rate cuts in December, but this pause is more of a "skip" rather than a cancellation, with a high probability of a rate cut in January next year if the December pause occurs [1]. Major Assets - The combination of the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals, concerns over the AI bubble, and weak year-end buying has led to a significant drop in U.S. stocks, with global markets also retreating. The minutes from the Fed's October meeting indicated caution regarding a December rate cut, and the announcement from the BLS about the delay in the November non-farm data release until December 16 (after the December FOMC meeting) caused market expectations for a rate cut to plummet to as low as 25%. However, the release of better-than-expected September non-farm data later in the week, despite an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate, slightly increased rate cut expectations. Overall, during the week of November 17 to November 21, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 1.9% and 2.7%, respectively, while the MSCI global index dropped by 2.5% [2][3]. Overseas Economy - The September non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, but the previous value was revised downwards, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, leading to a slight increase in December rate cut expectations. The BLS delayed the release of the September non-farm employment data. In total, the September non-farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs, significantly above the expected 51,000, while the August figure was revised down from 22,000 to -4,000. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. The structural weakness in the non-farm data persists and has worsened, with the majority of new jobs in education and healthcare. Following the data release, the market's interpretation was weak, leading to renewed bets on a soft labor market and Fed rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut rising from a low of 25% to 40% [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The expectations for a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve have fluctuated, with the absence of economic data likely leading to a high probability of a "skip" rather than a cancellation of the rate cut. The combination of hawkish signals from the Fed, the BLS's announcement of delayed data, and the significant drop in the stock market has caused the federal funds futures market to experience volatility in December rate cut expectations, which fell to around 25% mid-week but later rose to 63% [4][5].

与此同时，该基金最新成交量为2.92亿份，最新成交额突破3.20亿元，居可比基金首位。 2025年11月24日，航空航天ETF（159227.SZ）收涨5.01%，主力资金（单笔成交额100万元以上）净流 入6904.38万元，居可比基金首位。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the government bond ETF (511580.SH), which saw a slight increase of 0.03% on November 24, 2025 [1] - The fund attracted a net inflow of 335 million yuan from major investors (transactions over 1 million yuan), ranking it at the top tier of the market [1] - The latest trading volume for the fund reached 13.76 million units, with a total transaction value exceeding 1.492 billion yuan, also placing it in the top tier of the market [1]

AmSpec：马来西亚11月1-20日棕榈油出口量为828680吨，较上月同期出口的965066吨减少14.1%。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：南京玛合雅） 一、【市场关注】 1、加拿大谷物委员会发布的数据显示，截至11月16日当周，加拿大油菜籽出口量较前周增加134.8%至 28.46万吨，之前一周为12.12万吨。自2025年8月1日至2025年11月16日，加拿大油菜籽出口量为182.91 万吨，较上一年度同期的356.4万吨减少48.7%。 2、SGS：马来西亚11月1-20日棕榈油出口量为471222吨，较上月同期出口的793571吨减少40.6%。 注：其他关于大豆与豆粕资讯可看公众号第一篇《豆粕晚评》 二、【每日豆油现货报价】 | 市场 | 昌名 | 零报 | 包装方式 | RUARE | 演 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ઝ્રિસ | 成品大豆油 | ■ -- 级 | 原流 | 8370 | -20 | | 天津 | 成昌大豆油 | 国际一级 | 散装 | 8360 | -20 | | 北京 | 成品大豆油 | 国标一级 | 散装 | 834 ...

Group 1 - The National Bureau of Statistics of China will announce the prices of important production materials in circulation as of mid-November, covering nine categories and 50 products [1] - The People's Bank of China is expected to roll over 900 billion MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) on November 25, with the specific amount depending on market demand [2] - The U.S. Labor Department will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September, with expectations of a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly up from the previous value of 2.6% [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Commerce Department will announce the PCE price index for September, with expectations for the year-on-year rate to remain at 2.7% and a slight increase in the month-on-month rate to 0.3% [4] - The U.S. Commerce Department will also release the revised GDP for the third quarter, with expectations of a downward revision to 3.0% from the initial estimate of 3.8% [5] - The Federal Reserve will publish its Beige Book on economic conditions, which will be closely monitored for its impact on related futures prices [6] Group 3 - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced the listing of platinum and palladium futures and options, with trading set to begin on November 27 and 28, 2025, respectively [7] - The National Bureau of Statistics and the China Logistics Purchasing Federation will release the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for November, with expectations of slight declines in both indices [8][9] - The 40th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting will take place on November 30, with attention on the outcomes and their potential impact on oil and related commodity futures prices [9]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of dividend strategies in the current volatile investment environment, highlighting their role in providing stable cash flow and long-term compounding potential [1][3]. Summary by Categories Investment Strategy - Dividend strategies focus on high-dividend, cash flow-stable quality companies, serving as a foundational asset for wealth building [1]. - The S&P Dividend ETF (562060) exemplifies this strategy with its unique characteristics of "dividend + small-cap + industry diversification," making it stand out in uncertain markets [1][3]. Performance Metrics - The S&P Dividend ETF boasts a leading dividend yield of 5.18% among mainstream dividend indices, with a year-to-date increase of 14.95%, ranking first in performance [1][3]. - The ETF's median market capitalization is 21 billion, providing growth elasticity, while its industry diversification (top three sectors: banking 16.58%, machinery 11.02%, light industry manufacturing 8.68%) enhances its defensive qualities [1][3]. Cash Flow and Risk Management - The ETF's linked funds (Class A: 501029; Class C: 005125) have consistently paid dividends for four consecutive quarters, averaging approximately 1.25% per quarter, ensuring predictable cash flow [1]. - This combination of features allows the S&P Dividend ETF to withstand downside risks while being poised for rapid gains during market recoveries, making it a strong choice for investors seeking a balanced approach [1][3].

Core Insights - The main inflows in commodity futures on November 21 were observed in gold, crude oil, rapeseed oil, nickel, and copper, with inflows of 12.914 billion, 0.136 billion, 0.109 billion, 0.070 billion, and 0.062 billion respectively [1] - Major outflows were seen in lithium carbonate, aluminum, coking coal, glass, and silver, with outflows of 1.062 billion, 0.370 billion, 0.360 billion, 0.271 billion, and 0.240 billion respectively [1] - The non-ferrous metals and financial sectors experienced inflows, while agricultural products, chemicals, and black metals showed outflows [1] Commodity Futures Analysis - Significant inflows were noted in non-ferrous metals, particularly in gold, nickel, and copper, indicating strong market interest [1] - Conversely, lithium carbonate, aluminum, silicon, and silver experienced notable outflows, suggesting potential market weakness in these commodities [1] - Agricultural products, chemicals, and black metals showed outflows, with particular attention to coking coal, glass, and apples, while crude oil, rapeseed oil, and caustic soda saw inflows [1] Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector highlighted a focus on the 10-year treasury futures and the CSI 1000 stock index futures, indicating strategic investment interests [1]

Group 1 - The short-term bond ETF (511360.SH) experienced a slight decline, with a net outflow of 1.261 billion yuan from major funds (transactions over 1 million yuan), ranking among the top three in the market [1] - The latest trading volume for the fund reached 176 million units, with a total transaction value of 19.771 billion yuan, indicating that the net outflow of major funds accounted for 6.38% of the total transaction value on that day [1]

Group 1 - The 城投债ETF (511220.SH) closed flat on November 21, 2025, with a net outflow of 126 million yuan from major funds (transactions over 1 million yuan), ranking first in the market [1] - The latest trading volume of the fund reached 13.3 million units, with a total transaction value of 1.359 billion yuan, indicating that the net outflow of major funds accounted for 9.29% of the total transaction value on that day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the capital flow in various commodities as of November 20, highlighting significant inflows and outflows across different sectors, indicating market trends and potential investment opportunities [1]. Capital Flow Summary - The top commodities with positive capital inflow include: - Palm Oil (P): 3.06 billion - Apple (AP): 2.00 billion - Iron Ore: 0.88 billion - White Sugar (SR): 0.83 billion - Ethylene Glycol (EG): 0.70 billion [1]. - The commodities with the largest negative capital outflow include: - Rubber (RU): -0.54 billion - Hot Rolled Coil (HC): -0.65 billion - Rebar (RB): -0.82 billion - Pulp (SP): -0.77 billion - Tin (SN): -1.04 billion [1]. Price and Futures Data - The report includes current prices and futures data for various commodities, such as: - Copper (CU): Current price 86,420, Futures price 86,130 - Aluminum (AL): Current price 21,580, Futures price 21,530 - Zinc (ZN): Current price 22,570, Futures price 22,385 [5]. - Notable price changes include: - Iron Ore (I): Current price 790, Futures price 788.5, change of 1.5 - Rebar (RB): Current price 3,210, Futures price 3,050, change of 160 [5]. Company Overview - Guangzhou Jin控 Futures Co., Ltd. was established in 2003 and is a subsidiary of Guangzhou Jin控 Group, with a registered capital of 800 million RMB. The company is involved in commodity futures brokerage, financial futures brokerage, futures trading consulting, and asset management [3][6].