Core Viewpoint - The raw sugar market is experiencing a downward trend, with low participation from both bulls and bears, indicating significant selling pressure [1] Market Analysis - The March contract for raw sugar has shown a doji candlestick pattern, suggesting indecision in the market, with trading range narrowing compared to the previous day [1] - Domestic spot prices continue to decline, driven by ongoing negative sentiment in the market, with no signs of a bottom yet [1] - The market is assessing the production and sales dynamics in Northern China and the accumulation of sugar content in Southern China, indicating a need for dynamic balance [1] Trading Insights - In the Liuzhou market, the contract 26013 opened high but closed lower, indicating strong selling pressure with increasing transaction and order volumes [1] - The focus is on the resistance level at 5405; if this level holds, a test of the support at 5375 may occur, potentially leading to a short-term rebound [1] - The 2601 contract is showing strong bearish sentiment, with no significant rebound despite being oversold, indicating a strong will to sell among bears [1] - A potential short-term reversal may form if the price can hold above 5355, despite the current pressure at 5390 [1]

Market Overview - China's General Administration of Customs reported that in October, palm oil imports decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to 220,000 tons, while the cumulative imports from January to October fell by 15.3% to 1.96 million tons [1] - In contrast, soybean oil imports in October increased by 38.2% year-on-year to 20,000 tons, with a total of 290,000 tons imported from January to October, marking a 7.3% increase [1] - Canola oil and rapeseed oil imports in October dropped by 10.1% year-on-year to 140,000 tons, but the total imports from January to October rose by 18.7% to 1.74 million tons [1] Soybean Processing - The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that member companies crushed 227.647 million bushels of soybeans in October, a 15.1% increase from September's 197.863 million bushels and a 13.9% increase from October 2024's 199.943 million bushels [1] Palm Oil Exports - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1-15 were 702,692 tons, a decrease of 10% compared to the same period last month, and from November 1-20, exports were 828,680 tons, down 14.1% from the previous month [2] Oil Production Forecast - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia's oil production forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 510 million tons, and the country does not plan to actively reduce oil production, adhering to the OPEC+ agreement [2] Market Trends - The biodiesel theme's support appears to be short-lived, with palm oil prices in Malaysia significantly retreating to around 4,150. Domestic palm oil and soybean oil also declined, indicating a return to industry-driven market logic [4]

Core Insights - The Tianhong Science and Technology Bond ETF (551580.SH) experienced a slight increase on November 20, 2025, with a net inflow of 246 million yuan from major funds (transactions over 1 million yuan), ranking it among the top tier in the market [1] - The latest trading volume for the fund reached 12.71 million units, with a total transaction value of 1.276 billion yuan, also placing it in the top tier of the market [1]

Core Insights - The Aerospace ETF (159227.SZ) experienced a 1.25% increase in its share price on November 19, 2025, indicating positive market sentiment towards the aerospace sector [1] - The fund attracted a net inflow of 28.35 million yuan from major investors (transactions over 1 million yuan), leading the comparable funds in this category [1] - The latest trading volume for the fund reached 153 million shares, with a total transaction value exceeding 170 million yuan, also ranking first among comparable funds [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the non-ferrous metal ETF (159871.SZ) experienced a rise of 2.60% on November 19, 2025 [1] - The main capital flow, defined as transactions over 1 million yuan, saw a net outflow of 10.94 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The latest trading volume for the fund reached 30.41 million shares, with a total transaction amount of 53.63 million yuan, indicating that the net outflow of main capital accounted for 20.42% of the total transaction amount on that day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The raw sugar market is experiencing a contraction in trading volume, with the March contract showing a downward trend and facing resistance at 14.80 cents per pound [1] Market Analysis - Domestic spot prices are declining slightly due to high sugar extraction rates in northern production areas and the commencement of new sugar production in the south, increasing supply pressure [1] - The market in Liuzhou saw a decrease in the order volume for contract 26013, with effective resistance at 5480 leading to a downward trend, breaking through support levels at 5455 and 5435 [1] - The focus is on whether the 5440 level can act as a strong selling resistance; if it holds, panic selling may continue [1] Trading Activity - The 2601 sugar futures contract experienced a significant drop, closing with a long bearish candle, but the decline is slowing near the 5400 support level with an increase in open interest, indicating short-term bullish participation [1] - Attention is drawn to potential profit-taking in the 5420-5430 range as the market looks for signs of a rebound [1]

Market Overview - As of the week ending November 14, the profit from self-breeding and self-raising of pigs is a loss of 114.81 yuan per head, compared to a loss of 89.21 yuan per head the previous week. The profit from purchasing piglets is a loss of 205.64 yuan per head, up from a loss of 175.54 yuan per head the previous week [1] - The planned pig output for November in key provinces is 13.90 million heads, a decrease of 2.54% compared to the actual output in October. Jiangsu shows the most significant increase, exceeding 7%, while Fujian shows the largest decrease, exceeding 11% [1] - The national pig price as of November 12 is 12.44 yuan per kilogram, down 0.80% from November 5. The corn price is 2.26 yuan per kilogram, down 0.89%, and the pig-to-grain ratio is 5.50, down 1.79% [1] Feed Industry Insights - According to the China Feed Industry Association, the national industrial feed output in October 2025 is 29.07 million tons, a decrease of 4.2% month-on-month but an increase of 3.6% year-on-year. The output prices of major feed products have decreased year-on-year, with compound feed and concentrated feed prices mainly declining month-on-month [2] - The corn usage ratio in compound feed is 38.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the soybean meal usage ratio is 13.9%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month [2] Pig Price Trends - The current pig prices are weak due to the lack of demand as the cured meat season has not yet started. Many enterprises are still at a break-even point, and the market has not formed expectations for rapid capacity reduction and price stabilization [5] - The cost of soybean meal has seen a slight pullback but remains generally strong, raising questions about whether this cost support will lead to a quicker formation of a price bottom [5]

Market Overview - The USDA's November supply and demand report indicates that the expected soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season is 81.1 million acres, with a harvest area of 80.3 million acres and a yield of 53 bushels per acre, leading to an estimated production of 4.253 billion bushels, a decrease from the previous month's estimate of 4.301 billion bushels [1] - NOPA's monthly report predicts that U.S. soybean processing in October will reach 209.522 million bushels, a 5.9% increase from September and a 4.8% increase from October 2024, potentially setting a new monthly record [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports for the first half of November are reported to have decreased significantly, with AmSpec reporting a 10% drop and SGS reporting a 44.9% decrease compared to the previous month [2][3] Production and Export Forecasts - Industry analyst Thomas Mielke forecasts Indonesia's palm oil production for 2026 to be 49 million tons, slightly down from 49.4 million tons in 2025, while Malaysia's production is expected to decrease from 19.86 million tons in 2025 to 19.5 million tons in 2026 [3] - Dorab Mistry anticipates a global palm oil production increase of 1.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with total vegetable oil supply rising by 4.2 million tons and demand increasing by 6 million tons [3] - Canada's canola seed exports have decreased by 35.67% to 121,200 tons as of November 9, with a year-on-year decline of 54.10% [3] Pricing and Market Dynamics - Malaysia has set the reference price for palm oil at 4,206.38 ringgit per ton for December, with an export tax rate of 10% [3] - The market for soybean oil remains strong, driven by the performance of canola oil and high import costs, which support soybean oil prices despite a pullback in soybean prices [6]

Group 1 - Raw sugar has rebounded from a five-week decline, with attention on the 15-cent resistance level this week. If this resistance holds, it may indicate a short-term exhaustion of short positions, leading to a potential pullback towards the 14.70-cent support level [1] - The domestic market is currently weak as old sugar needs to be digested before new sugar enters the market. Prices are not high enough to encourage downstream replenishment, resulting in a continued consolidation phase [1] - The market in Liuzhou shows a cautious trading environment, with the contract displaying four consecutive doji candlesticks after a low of 5426, indicating indecision among buyers and sellers [1] Group 2 - The 2601 sugar futures contract shows a high and then a pullback, forming a shooting star pattern on the weekly chart, with 5460 as a key support level to watch [2] - Short-term indicators suggest a potential for oscillation within the range of 5460 to 5504, indicating a cautious trading approach [2]

Market Focus - The Trump administration has lifted restrictions on oil extraction in the Alaska National Petroleum Reserve, reversing a ban imposed by former President Biden that designated approximately 87 billion barrels of extractable oil as off-limits. This policy change officially took effect on Thursday [1] - Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) forecasts that soybean production for the 2025/26 season will reach 177.6016 million tons, an increase of 6.1199 million tons or 3.6% year-on-year. The soybean planting area is expected to rise to 49.0634 million hectares, also up 3.6% year-on-year [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1-10 were reported at 448,328 tons, a decrease of 9.5% compared to the same period last month. However, palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time in 2025, driven by favorable weather conditions and improved labor supply [1] - India's palm oil imports for the 2024/25 marketing year are projected to decline by 15.9% to 7.58 million tons, the lowest level since the 2019/20 marketing year. In contrast, soybean oil imports surged by 59% to a record 5.47 million tons [2] - Following seasonal maintenance, most processing plants in the U.S. resumed operations in October, leading to a rapid increase in soybean supply. Analysts predict that U.S. soybean crush in October may reach a record high of 209.522 million bushels, a 5.9% increase from September [3] Daily Oilseed Market Data - The average price for refined soybean oil in various markets shows slight variations, with prices ranging from 8,440 to 8,850 [4] Market Review - The market sentiment for Canadian canola has improved due to easing trade relations, pushing domestic canola oil contracts above the 10,000-point mark within four trading days. The price spread between canola oil and soybean oil has widened significantly, approaching 1,700 points [5]