Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent capital inflows and outflows in various commodity futures, indicating a mixed sentiment across different sectors, with a notable focus on lithium carbonate, gold, silver, and copper experiencing significant inflows, while sectors like agricultural products and black metals faced outflows [1]. Group 1: Capital Inflows - The main commodities with significant capital inflows include lithium carbonate (1.606 billion), gold (1.273 billion), silver (634 million), polysilicon (318 million), and copper (225 million) [1]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is in a state of inflow, particularly focusing on lithium carbonate, gold, silver, and copper, while aluminum is noted for its counter-trend outflow [1]. Group 2: Capital Outflows - The commodities experiencing major capital outflows include coking coal (244 million), rebar (221 million), palm oil (156 million), hot-rolled coil (151 million), and iron ore (151 million) [1]. - The agricultural, chemical, and black metal sectors are showing outflows, with particular attention to coking coal, rebar, palm oil, and iron ore, while apples, caustic soda, and ferrosilicon are noted for their counter-trend inflows [1]. Group 3: Financial Futures - The financial sector is highlighted with a focus on the CSI 1000 index futures and 30-year treasury futures, indicating areas of interest for investors [1].

Core Insights - The article highlights the recent capital inflows and outflows in commodity futures, indicating a mixed market sentiment with specific focus on various sectors [1] Group 1: Capital Inflows - Major inflows were observed in gold (2.725 billion), tin (0.784 billion), silver (0.728 billion), copper (0.313 billion), and corn (0.081 billion) [1] - The non-ferrous metals and financial sectors showed a positive inflow trend, particularly in gold, tin, silver, copper, and polysilicon [1] Group 2: Capital Outflows - Significant outflows were noted in lithium carbonate (1.148 billion), rebar (0.269 billion), rapeseed oil (0.196 billion), hot-rolled coil (0.178 billion), and glass (0.161 billion) [1] - The agricultural, chemical, and black metal sectors experienced outflows, with a focus on rebar, glass, methanol, and live pigs, while corn, fuel oil, and ferrosilicon saw contrary inflows [1] Group 3: Overall Market Sentiment - The overall commodity futures market experienced moderate inflows, with a notable emphasis on the non-ferrous metals sector and financial futures such as the CSI 1000 index futures and 10-year treasury futures [1]

Group 1 - A500ETF Rongtong (159379.SZ) closed up by 1.15% on November 25, 2025 [1] - The fund experienced a net outflow of 13.35 million yuan from major funds (single transaction amount over 1 million yuan), ranking first in the market [1] - The latest trading volume of the fund was 27.62 million units, with a total transaction amount of 34.05 million yuan, placing it at the tail end among comparable funds [1]

与此同时，该基金最新成交量为3319.07万份，最新成交额跌破34.00亿元，居可比基金倒数前3。 2025年11月25日，科创债ETF中银（551060.SH）收跌0.03%，主力资金（单笔成交额100万元以上）净 流出3.42亿元，居可比基金首位。（数据来源：Wind） ...

Group 1 - The home appliance ETF (515730.SH) closed up by 0.70% on November 25, 2025, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The fund experienced a net inflow of 38.1429 million yuan from major funds (transactions over 1 million yuan), ranking it first in the market [1] - The latest trading volume for the fund reached 139 million shares, with a total transaction value of 139 million yuan, marking a historical high [1]

Market Overview - As of November 21, the profit from self-bred pigs is a loss of 135.90 CNY per head, compared to a loss of 114.81 CNY the previous week. The profit from purchased piglets is a loss of 234.63 CNY per head, up from a loss of 205.64 CNY the previous week [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on November 18-19, indicating that the livestock industry has maintained steady development this year, with the total number of breeding sows falling below 40 million heads by the end of October [1] - The national pig price as of November 19 is 12.24 CNY per kilogram, down 1.61% from November 12, while the corn price has increased by 0.88% to 2.28 CNY per kilogram [1] Daily Market Prices - The average price of pigs in various provinces shows a downward trend, with prices in regions like Heilongjiang at 11.35 CNY/kg, down 0.02 CNY from the previous day, and a year-on-year decrease of 29.44% [1] - The pig-to-grain ratio is reported at 5.37, a decrease of 2.36% from November 12 [1] Industry Dynamics - The number of breeding sows has rapidly decreased to 39.90 million heads, leading to a divergence in market opinions regarding capacity reduction. Some advocate for accelerated capacity reduction to prevent further losses, while others with strong financial backing may seek to capitalize on the exit of smaller producers [2] - There are concerns that some companies may have inflated their actual breeding stock numbers to qualify for subsidies [2]

Market Overview - As of the week ending November 21, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.73 per bushel, a decrease of 12.2% from the previous week. The average crushing profit for 2024 is projected at $2.44 per bushel, down from $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1-25 were 987,978 tons, a decrease of 16.4% compared to 1,182,216 tons in the same period last month [1] - Brazil's soybean planting rate reached 78% as of November 22, 2025, up from 69% the previous week but down from 83.3% year-on-year [1] Inventory Data - The total commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in key regions of China was 2.224 million tons, an increase of 0.1 thousand tons week-on-week, and up 253,000 tons or 12.84% year-on-year [1] - The commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.1799 million tons, up 31,400 tons or 2.73% from the previous week, and up 114,000 tons or 10.70% year-on-year [1] - The commercial inventory of palm oil was 667,100 tons, an increase of 13,900 tons or 2.13% week-on-week, and up 159,200 tons or 31.34% year-on-year [2] - The total rapeseed oil inventory in major regions was 377,000 tons, down 44,300 tons week-on-week [2] Price Trends - The market for palm oil is under pressure due to weak export data, with prices falling below the critical psychological level of 4,000 ringgit per ton amid concerns over inventory accumulation [4]

Group 1 - The main inflows in commodity futures (main contracts) yesterday were in gold, lithium carbonate, zinc, LPG, and copper, with inflows of 579 million, 452 million, 380 million, 312 million, and 88 million respectively [1] - The main outflows were in palm oil, rebar, aluminum, nickel, and soda ash, with outflows of 200 million, 149 million, 146 million, 143 million, and 112 million respectively [1] - Overall, commodity futures experienced a slight outflow yesterday, with agricultural products, black metals, and chemical sectors showing outflows, particularly in palm oil, rebar, soda ash, and PVC [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metals sector showed an inflow, with significant attention on gold, lithium carbonate, and zinc, while aluminum, nickel, and silver experienced outflows [1] - Financial futures to focus on include the CSI 1000 index futures and 2-year government bond futures [1] - The sectors with notable inflows included LPG, corn, live pigs, and butadiene rubber, despite the overall outflow trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and the delay in the release of November non-farm payroll data have significantly narrowed market expectations for a rate cut in December, leading to a substantial pullback in U.S. stocks. Concerns over the AI bubble and other factors have also contributed to this decline. However, the weak non-farm data from September and the tightening of financial conditions due to the stock market adjustment have rekindled expectations for a rate cut. Looking ahead, in the absence of important data, the company leans towards the Fed pausing rate cuts in December, but this pause is more of a "skip" rather than a cancellation, with a high probability of a rate cut in January next year if the December pause occurs [1]. Major Assets - The combination of the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals, concerns over the AI bubble, and weak year-end buying has led to a significant drop in U.S. stocks, with global markets also retreating. The minutes from the Fed's October meeting indicated caution regarding a December rate cut, and the announcement from the BLS about the delay in the November non-farm data release until December 16 (after the December FOMC meeting) caused market expectations for a rate cut to plummet to as low as 25%. However, the release of better-than-expected September non-farm data later in the week, despite an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate, slightly increased rate cut expectations. Overall, during the week of November 17 to November 21, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 1.9% and 2.7%, respectively, while the MSCI global index dropped by 2.5% [2][3]. Overseas Economy - The September non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, but the previous value was revised downwards, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, leading to a slight increase in December rate cut expectations. The BLS delayed the release of the September non-farm employment data. In total, the September non-farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs, significantly above the expected 51,000, while the August figure was revised down from 22,000 to -4,000. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. The structural weakness in the non-farm data persists and has worsened, with the majority of new jobs in education and healthcare. Following the data release, the market's interpretation was weak, leading to renewed bets on a soft labor market and Fed rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut rising from a low of 25% to 40% [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The expectations for a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve have fluctuated, with the absence of economic data likely leading to a high probability of a "skip" rather than a cancellation of the rate cut. The combination of hawkish signals from the Fed, the BLS's announcement of delayed data, and the significant drop in the stock market has caused the federal funds futures market to experience volatility in December rate cut expectations, which fell to around 25% mid-week but later rose to 63% [4][5].

Group 1 - The Aerospace ETF (159227.SZ) experienced a significant increase of 5.01% on November 24, 2025 [1] - The fund attracted a net inflow of 69.04 million yuan from major investors (transactions over 1 million yuan), leading among comparable funds [1] - The latest trading volume for the fund reached 292 million shares, with a total transaction value exceeding 320 million yuan, also ranking first among comparable funds [1]