Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the trading performance of glass futures, with the main contract 2509 experiencing a price increase of 7.12% as of July 21, 2025, and a total trading volume of 4.83 million contracts [1][3] - The total trading volume for all glass futures contracts reached 4.83 million contracts, with an increase of 1.99 million contracts compared to the previous day [1][4] - The top 20 positions in the glass futures market show a net short position, with a difference of 199,388 contracts [1][3] Group 2 - The top three long positions are held by Guotai Junan with a total holding of 92,492 contracts, followed by Fangzheng Futures with 71,301 contracts, and CITIC Futures with 64,371 contracts [1][4] - The top three short positions are also led by Guotai Junan with 210,469 contracts, followed by Yong'an Futures with 115,224 contracts, and CITIC Futures with 113,332 contracts [1][4] - The long positions in the top 20 show a decrease of 74,200 contracts, while the short positions decreased by 14,270 contracts compared to the previous day [1][3]

金十数据7月21日讯，国泰海通发布研报称，产品创新是新消费的重要方向，医美、化妆品品类对成分 技术更加强调，上游产品线不断完善，新品加速落地推动行业出新。整体来看，美护板块成长属性明 显，基本面维度品牌分化加剧，建议自下而上优选存在产品及渠道变化、具备弹性的标的。 国泰海通：美护板块成长属性明显，基本面维度品牌分化加剧 ...

据交通部，2025年1-5月全国主要港口外贸货物吞吐量同比增长2%，其中外贸集装箱吞吐量同比增长 8%，展现中国制造优势与出口韧性。1)大宗商品进口同比承压。1-6月铁矿和煤及褐煤进口同比分 别-3%/-11%;受益中东增产及油价下降，原油进口量同比增长1.4%。2)新三样出口继续保持高增。1-6月 电动车、太阳能电池、锂电池等出口货量同比增长分别达45%/53%/18%。3)美国/欧盟/东盟/非洲1-6月 出口金额同比分别同比-10%/3%/8%/13%，其中东盟与非洲较高增有效对冲美国关税摩擦影响。该行认 为，年内美线集装箱出口货量将继续受关税政策变化与美国经济消费影响，中长期贸易重构与东盟增长 有望持续，为亚洲内集运市场带来结构性机会。 风险提示 经济波动、关税、地缘形势、油价汇率、安全事故等。 油运：欧盟对俄实施第18轮制裁，制裁效果有待观察 国泰海通发布研报称，维持航空油运增持评级。暑运再迎客流高峰，近期预售票价有所下调，预售出票 及客座率上升。旺季博弈风险逐步释放，建议布局长逻辑。油运方面，欧盟对俄实施第18轮制裁，制裁 效果有待观察，若执行有效将有望利好合规市场供需。下半年原油增产效应值得期待。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term coal and coke prices may show a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall due to frequent disturbances in the news and fundamental support. After the coke price increase, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking enthusiasm. The supply will be more focused on stable production and environmental safety inspections in the second half of the year, and the supply increase will be affected. With healthy steel mill profits and high - level hot metal production, coal and coke prices are supported. The market is in a positive feedback trading logic, and the short - term trend is regarded as oscillating upward [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Coal**: Domestic coal supply has slightly decreased. The production of some previously overhauled and accident - halted mines in the main producing areas has gradually recovered, while some mines have reduced production due to factors such as underground working face replacement. The weekly sample coal mine raw coal output decreased by 26,500 tons to 12.2788 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.18% to 85.43%. Overseas, the port was closed for 5 days during the Nadam Fair (July 11 - 15) and resumed customs clearance on the 16th. The customs clearance volume has gradually recovered in the past two days. The average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port from July 14 - 17 was 779 vehicles [6] - **Coke**: The supply of coke production areas has gradually increased, but the growth rate is limited. The daily average output of independent coking plants is 642,000 tons (+1,000 tons), and that of steel mills and coking enterprises is 471,000 tons (-1,000 tons) [3][9] 3.2 Demand - **Coal**: Coke enterprises and intermediate links are actively purchasing, and coal mines have booming orders. Some resources at the mine mouth are in short supply, but the overall arrival of coke enterprises has not improved significantly, and some have difficulty increasing inventory and even experience passive inventory reduction [6] - **Coke**: After the blast furnace overhaul, the hot metal production has increased month - on - month, and the demand for coke has strengthened. The hot metal output is 2.4244 million tons (+26,300 tons) [6][9] 3.3 Inventory - **Coal**: The total MS inventory of coking coal decreased by 776,000 tons. Mine inventory decreased by 503,000 tons, independent coking plant inventory increased by 368,000 tons, steel mill coking plant inventory increased by 82,000 tons, port inventory decreased by 66,000 tons, and port - related inventory decreased by 688,000 tons [9] - **Coke**: The total MS inventory of coke decreased by 73,000 tons. Independent coking plant inventory decreased by 55,000 tons, steel mill inventory increased by 12,000 tons, and port inventory decreased by 30,000 tons. The available days of coke inventory in the monitored steel enterprises are 10.85 days, a decrease of 0.18 days compared with the same period last week [4][9] 3.4 Investment Outlook - Not provided in the document 3.5 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data - **Coking Coal**: FW raw coal is 8.6656 million tons (-15,600 tons), FW clean coal is 4.4244 million tons (-10,500 tons), hot metal output is 2.4244 million tons (+26,300 tons), the profit of commercial coal is 326 yuan/ton (+36 yuan/ton), and there are different warehouse receipt prices [9] - **Coke**: The daily average output of independent coking plants is 642,000 tons (+1,000 tons), that of steel mills and coking enterprises is 471,000 tons (-1,000 tons), hot metal output is 2.4244 million tons (+26,300 tons), the average profit of coking enterprises is - 65 yuan/ton (-35 yuan/ton), and the warehouse receipt price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke is 1,384 yuan/ton [9] 3.6 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2509 and 2601 futures contracts have changed. For example, on July 18, 2025, the closing price of coking coal 2509 was 926 yuan/ton, with a change of 7.5 yuan [60] - **Coke Futures**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2509 and 2601 futures contracts have also changed. On July 18, 2025, the closing price of coke 2509 was 1,518 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan [63] - **Spot Prices**: Different types of coking coal and coke have corresponding spot prices, and the basis of coking coal and coke is also provided. For example, on July 18, the basis of coking coal was 14, and that of coke was - 134 [70][74]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates a resurgence in thematic trading, with optical communication and innovative pharmaceuticals leading the charge, while the overall market remains stable with strong thematic differentiation and new catalysts driving accelerated rotation in themes [1] Group 1: Thematic Trading Insights - Thematic trading heat continues to rise, with optical communication and innovative pharmaceuticals at the forefront, while themes like photovoltaic and stablecoins have seen a pullback [1] - Average daily trading volume for hot themes reached 545 million yuan, with an average turnover rate of 3.35%, indicating a sustained increase in thematic trading since June [1] - The market is characterized by strong thematic differentiation, with optimistic performance guidance from overseas cloud companies and significant capital inflow into AI-related themes [1] Group 2: Urban Renewal - The Central Urban Work Conference emphasizes urban renewal as a key strategy for building modern, livable cities, with a focus on improving existing urban areas rather than expanding [2] - Urbanization rate in China has increased from 53.1% in 2012 to an expected 67% in 2024, with urban population rising from 720 million to 940 million [2] - Investment opportunities include upgrades to old residential areas and smart city projects benefiting from high-quality urban development [2] Group 3: Yarlung Tsangpo River Hydropower Project - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan for the construction of five tiered power stations [3] - The project is expected to stimulate investments in related industries such as engineering, transportation, and electricity due to its significant scale [3] - The hydropower resources are abundant, but the geological complexity of the middle and lower sections poses high construction challenges [3] Group 4: Production Limits and Price Stabilization - The State Council's executive meeting aims to regulate competition in the new energy vehicle industry, addressing issues of low-price disorder [4] - Policies to curb excessive competition are expected to stabilize price expectations in industries like photovoltaic and new energy vehicles, as well as in cyclical sectors such as steel and chemicals [4] - Investment opportunities arise in sectors facing concentrated production releases and those benefiting from improved supply-side expectations [4] Group 5: AI New Infrastructure - Nvidia's founder Jensen Huang's visit to China and the announcement of H20 chip export licenses signal positive developments in the US-China computing chip trade [5] - Domestic internet companies constrained by computing chip supply are likely to accelerate capital expenditure, benefiting the domestic intelligent computing center industry chain [5] - The optimistic performance guidance from overseas cloud vendors, combined with rising expectations for domestic computing infrastructure investments, supports growth in this sector [5]

日期期间申购（亿份）期间赎回（亿份）期末总份额（亿份）期末净资产（亿元）净资产变动率2025- 06-300.000.010.020.02-24.80%2025-03-310.000.000.020.02-2.54%2024-12-310.000.020.020.02-47.96%2024- 09-300.000.020.040.04-27.77% 数据显示，该基金近3个月收益率0.61%，近一年收益率2.06%，成立以来收益率为11.73%。 天眼查商业履历信息显示，上海国泰君安证券资产管理有限公司成立于2010年8月，位于上海市，是一 家以从事资本市场服务为主的企业。注册资本200000万人民币，法定代表人为陶耿。 截至2025年6月30日，国泰君安资管旗下国泰君安30天滚动持有中短债C（013282）期末净资产13.90亿 元，比上期减少13.01%，该基金经理为杜浩然。 简历显示，杜浩然先生:复旦大学金融硕士,2014年7月入职上海国泰君安证券资产管理有限公司,历任固 定收益投资部助理研究员、投资经理;基金投资部基金经理;现任固定收益投资部(公募)副总经理,主要负 责固定收益类产品的投资研究工作。自2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced fluctuations since the end of June due to tariffs and exchange rate impacts, but is expected to outperform the A-share market in the second half of the year as positive factors accumulate [1][3][13]. Market Performance - Since the end of June, the Hong Kong stock market has shown weaker performance compared to the A-share market, primarily influenced by U.S. tariff policies and the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate [4][7]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 20% in the first half of the year, outperforming major global indices, including the S&P 500 (5.5%) and the Shanghai Composite Index (2.8%) [3][4]. Sector Analysis - The technology and dividend sectors in Hong Kong are currently less active compared to A-shares, with the overall market heat slightly below historical averages [7][8]. - The healthcare and consumer sectors in Hong Kong show higher activity levels compared to A-shares, with the healthcare sector's heat at 91%, significantly above A-shares' 77% [9][8]. Investment Opportunities - The easing of U.S. chip export restrictions and the acceleration of AI applications are expected to benefit the Hong Kong technology sector, which is well-positioned to capitalize on the AI industry transformation [17]. - The dividend sector in Hong Kong, despite lower heat compared to A-shares, still holds value due to high dividend yields relative to risk-free rates, making it an attractive option for long-term investors [18]. Future Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a favorable allocation period, with expectations of continued upward movement in the second half of the year driven by supportive policies and improved capital inflows [13][14]. - The anticipated increase in capital expenditure by Hong Kong internet giants in AI infrastructure is expected to enhance the performance of the technology sector [17].

Group 1 - The net asset of the Guotai Junan Asset Management's Guotai Junan CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment Index Fund (QDII) A reached 0.08 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025, representing a 35.55% increase compared to the previous period [1] - The fund manager, Zhang Jing, has a background in finance with a bachelor's degree from the University of International Business and Economics and an MBA from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has extensive international experience in asset management since 2006 [1] - The fund's recent performance shows a 16.68% return over the last three months and a 17.16% return over the past year, with a cumulative return of 17.16% since inception [2] Group 2 - The fund's top ten stock holdings include China COSCO Shipping, Yancoal Australia, and China Petroleum, with a total holding percentage of 46.43% [2] - The Shanghai Guotai Junan Securities Asset Management Company was established in August 2010, focusing on capital market services, with a registered capital of 2 billion yuan [2]

Global Macro Environment - The US economy shows positive data, but inflation risks remain, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025 at a slower pace [2] - China's economic recovery is weak, with limited effects from policy stimulus, facing challenges from a real estate market crisis and external tariff pressures [3] - Other countries, including the EU and emerging economies, are following the Fed's rate cuts but must balance the pressure from a strengthening dollar, while geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine persist [3] Vietnam Economic and Stock Market Outlook - Vietnam's economic growth is projected at 7% for 2024 and between 6.0%-6.5% for 2025, driven by trade, FDI, manufacturing, and consumption, with significant long-term potential from government reforms and infrastructure projects like the North-South high-speed railway [4] - The VN-Index has opportunities for breakthroughs amid volatility, with a positive scenario potentially pushing it above 1450 points, supported by GDP growth, an expected 20% increase in EPS, market upgrade expectations (such as FTSE potentially upgrading Vietnam to emerging market status), and easing geopolitical risks [4]

根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓48064、华泰期货，总持仓46033、国泰君安，总持仓40345；空头前三席位 为国泰君安，总持仓77206、中信期货，总持仓69392、银河期货，总持仓46137； 新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至7月18日收盘主力合约焦煤2509,涨跌+2.55%,成交量131.65万手，持仓数据显示前20席位呈现净 空，差额头寸为46898手。 焦煤期货全合约总计成交163.52万手，比上一日新增35.48万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓43.29万手，比上一日减少1.94万手。全 合约前20席位空头持仓51.67万手，比上一日增加2442手。 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：招商期货、持仓9368、增仓1966，中辉期货、持仓11123、增仓1657，方正中期、 持仓17863、增仓634；多头减仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓24747、减仓-7532，中信期货、持仓36687、减仓-4649，东吴期 货、持仓8149、减仓-3794； 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓18528、增仓2253， ...