浆价涨价函陆续发布，当下时点如何看待造纸龙头竞争优 势 20251227 摘要 浆价进入上行周期，多家供应商提价，主要驱动因素包括海外新增产能 有限、国内木片供应缺口扩大导致成本支撑增强，以及国内自制浆企业 议价能力提升。人民币汇率短期强势缓解了进口成本压力。 文化纸价格已触及历史低点，中小企业面临生存困境。需求萎缩和供需 矛盾突出是主要原因。行业格局有望通过长期底部运行加速中小企业退 出，具备成本优势的龙头企业将坚守市场。 白卡纸价格自 2025 年八九月份开始反弹，四季度终端执行涨幅约 300 元/吨。驱动因素包括旺季需求、废纸禁令及行业联合挺价。预计 2026 年初价格将逐步回归合理区间，自制浆配套龙头企业将率先受益。 废纸系产品方面，上半年废纸价格坚挺但瓦楞箱板纸价格下跌，下半年 在成本推动和联合挺价下瓦楞箱板纸价格上涨。但 11 月至今因库存高 企抛售库存等原因废纸运价格回落，使原纸运承压。长期看，废纸运供 应偏紧格局未变，龙头企业受益更明显。 Q&A 近期全球商品浆市场的价格变化情况如何？其背后的驱动因素有哪些？ 从 2025 年末开始，全球商品浆市场迎来了集中的涨价函。巴西的苏丹诺宣布 12 月 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the waste paper purchase price has been increased by 30 yuan/ton, resulting in a new price of 1680 yuan/ton, indicating strong market demand likely driven by increased production needs in the paper products sector [1][4]. - The increase in waste paper prices is expected to directly boost the spot market trading prices and stimulate supply-side activity [2][5]. - The pricing model used by the company is based on big data and a pricing model, which serves as a trading guide price, known as the "Shengyi Price" [2][5]. Group 2 - The pricing formula for determining transaction settlement prices includes an adjustment coefficient (K) that accounts for factors such as account period costs [2][5]. - The additional costs (C) in the pricing formula include logistics costs, brand price differences, and regional price differences [3][6].

Industry Overview - The paper industry is experiencing a simultaneous "shutdown wave" and "price increase wave" from late 2025 to early 2026, with major packaging paper companies like Nine Dragons, Shanying, Lee & Man, and Rongcheng initiating large-scale maintenance and capacity reduction [1] - Major white card and cultural paper manufacturers, including Bohui, APP, and Universal Paper, have collectively announced price increases, highlighting differences in cost structures and supply-demand relationships among various paper types [1] Production and Pricing Dynamics - Nine Dragons Paper is expected to reduce production by approximately 310,000 tons in the first quarter, while Shanying International will halt 12 corrugated paper machines for 5-10 days in January [1] - Lee & Man Paper will conduct maintenance on five paper machines in Guangdong for 15-22 days in February, driven by a decline in waste paper prices, which have dropped by 260-400 RMB/ton since December [1] - Bohui Paper and APP will raise industrial paper prices by 200 RMB/ton starting January 1, 2026, while Universal Paper will increase prices for white and food card paper by the same amount in mid-December, due to high costs of wood pulp and energy [1] Currency Impact - The appreciation of the RMB is seen as an additional benefit for the industry, as it will lower the import costs of pulp, thereby enhancing company profits [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Datong Securities indicates that the paper industry is benefiting from a "price increase bonus, supply contraction, and policy regulation," which strengthens the supply-demand balance [2] - CICC anticipates a moderate recovery in consumer demand by 2026, with the capacity expansion of boxboard and corrugated paper nearing completion, potentially leading to a recovery in capacity utilization and price levels [2] - CITIC Securities notes that the appreciation of the RMB will decrease import costs for raw materials like pulp, improving gross margins in processing and trading sectors [2] Company Developments - Bohui Paper announced a price increase of 200 RMB/ton for industrial paper starting January 1, 2026, and plans to expand its chemical pulp production capacity from 95,000 tons to 320,000 tons with a total investment of 1.70066 billion RMB [3] - Sun Paper, a leading player in the domestic paper industry, is accelerating the construction of several projects, including a 400,000-ton specialty paper project and a 300,000-ton living paper project, expected to enter trial production in Q3-Q4 of 2025 [3]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.65%, gaining 165 points to close at 25,663 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.14%. The morning trading volume reached 97.5 billion HKD [1] - New listings in the Hong Kong stock market included Zhihui Mining (02546), which surged over 110% upon debut, and Xidi Zhijia (03881), which fell over 8% after its listing [1] - The U.S. Senate passed a revised version of the Biodefense Act as part of the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026, leading to a significant rebound in pharmaceutical stocks, with WuXi Biologics (02269) rising over 6% and 3SBio (01530) increasing by 3.7% [1] Group 2 - HAP Pharmaceuticals-B (02142) saw a nearly 7% increase after signing a business development deal worth over 1 billion USD with Bristol-Myers Squibb [2] - China Duty Free Group (601888) (01880) rebounded nearly 7% after winning bids for two major duty-free projects at Shanghai airports, with market attention on the results of the Capital Airport tender [2] - Youjia Innovation (02431) surged over 12% as L3 large-scale deployment approaches, with the company having made forward-looking arrangements for L2+ and L4 [2] - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) rose over 3% as the industry leader announced a series of shutdown plans to support price and inventory levels before the Spring Festival [2] Group 3 - South Manganese (01091) increased by over 9% due to multiple factors driving the continuous rise in electrolytic manganese prices [3] Group 4 - Yangtze Optical Fibre (601869) (06869) rose over 10%, with a cumulative increase of over 30% in the past three days, driven by sustained demand for optical fibers and cables from AI [4] Group 5 - Ganwan (09890) increased by over 5% after issuing zero-coupon convertible bonds at a premium, raising 450 million HKD to enhance its "AI + gaming" strategy [5] Group 6 - Liqin Resources (02245) rose over 9% as Indonesia plans to significantly reduce its nickel ore production targets by 2026 [6] Group 7 - Shenzhou International (02313) fell over 3% as its major client Nike reported a 32% year-on-year decline in net profit for the second fiscal quarter [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that leading paper manufacturers are continuing their trend of price increases, although the actual implementation of these price hikes has slowed down. Additionally, major manufacturers have announced maintenance plans that could reduce production by over 300,000 tons, which may help stabilize prices and inventory levels before the Spring Festival [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Nine Dragons Paper (玖龙纸业) shares rose over 4%, currently trading at HKD 8.51 with a transaction volume of HKD 10.4884 million [1]. - CICC is optimistic about the improvement in profit per ton for the fourth quarter, with differences among companies primarily depending on product structure [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The sensitivity of corrugated box paper to consumer demand is highlighted, with the current supply expansion phase nearing its end. From 2023 to 2025, over 15 million tons of new capacity is expected to be added, with four leading companies accounting for approximately 40% of this capacity [1]. - Future expansions by leading companies are expected to be relatively restrained, with Nine Dragons pausing expansion plans starting in 2024, and other companies like Shanying and Lee & Man also showing limited expansion intentions [1]. - The industry is anticipated to see a recovery in capacity utilization rates and price levels by 2026, as the expansion phase concludes [1].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (02689) has shown a significant increase, with a rise of 3.15% to HKD 8.51, driven by market expectations regarding price adjustments and production plans in the paper industry [1] Industry Summary - Major paper manufacturers have continued the trend of price increases observed in previous months, although the actual implementation of these price hikes has slowed down [1] - Leading paper manufacturers have announced maintenance plans for December and the first two months of the following year, estimating a production reduction of over 300,000 tons, which may effectively regulate supply and support price and inventory levels before the Spring Festival [1] - The industry is expected to see an improvement in profit per ton in Q4, with differences among companies primarily based on product structure [1] Company Summary - Nine Dragons Paper is expected to pause capacity expansion starting in 2024, while other leading companies like Shanying and Lee & Man have limited short-term expansion plans [1] - The current phase of supply expansion in the industry is nearing its end, with a total of over 15 million tons of new capacity expected to be operational between 2023 and 2025, of which four leading companies account for approximately 40% [1] - By 2026, the industry is anticipated to experience a recovery in capacity utilization rates and price levels compared to previous years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that leading paper manufacturers are continuing the trend of price increases observed in the previous months, although the actual implementation of these price hikes has slowed down [1] Company Summary - Nine Dragons Paper (玖龙纸业) shares rose over 4%, currently trading at HKD 8.51 with a transaction volume of HKD 10.4884 million [1] - The company is expected to see an improvement in profit per ton in Q4 2025, with differences among companies primarily based on product structure [1] Industry Summary - Leading paper manufacturers have announced maintenance plans for December and the first two months of next year, estimating a production cut of over 300,000 tons, which may effectively regulate supply and support price and inventory levels before the Spring Festival [1] - The sensitivity of corrugated box paper to consumer demand is highlighted, with the current supply expansion phase nearing its end [1] - From 2023 to 2025, the total new capacity added exceeds 15 million tons, with four leading companies accounting for approximately 40% of this capacity [1] - Future expansions by existing leaders are expected to be relatively restrained, with Nine Dragons pausing expansion from 2024, and other companies like Shanying and Lee & Man also showing limited expansion plans [1] - The industry is anticipated to see a recovery in capacity utilization rates and price levels by 2026, as the expansion phase concludes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that leading paper manufacturers are continuing their trend of price increases, although the actual implementation of these price hikes has slowed down. Additionally, major manufacturers have announced maintenance plans that could reduce production by over 300,000 tons, which may help stabilize prices and inventory levels before the Spring Festival [1] Group 1: Company Insights - Nine Dragons Paper (玖龙纸业) shares rose over 4%, currently trading at HKD 8.51 with a transaction volume of HKD 10.4884 million [1] - The company is expected to see an improvement in profit per ton in Q4 2025, with differences among companies primarily based on product structure [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The sensitivity of corrugated box paper to consumer demand is highlighted, with the current supply expansion phase nearing its end. From 2023 to 2025, over 15 million tons of new capacity is expected to be added, with four leading companies accounting for approximately 40% of this capacity [1] - Future expansions by leading companies are expected to be relatively restrained, with Nine Dragons pausing expansion plans starting in 2024, and other companies like Shanying and Lee & Man also showing limited expansion intentions [1] - The industry is anticipated to see a recovery in capacity utilization rates and price levels by 2026, as the expansion phase concludes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 8% to HKD 5.73, with a trading volume of HKD 101 million [1] Company Summary - Nine Dragons Paper has reduced the prices of its products: the price of corrugated paper and recycled paper has been lowered by HKD 70 per ton, while the price of corrugated cardboard has been reduced by HKD 120 per ton [1] - The company is facing increased pressure on domestic demand for finished paper products as reported by Zhi Chuang Information [1] Industry Summary - The overall demand for finished paper in China has shown signs of slowing down, particularly entering December [1] - Inventory levels for corrugated paper and boxboard have risen significantly, with a reported increase of 10.03% to 262,200 tons as of the week ending December 11, indicating a growing inventory trend compared to the previous week [1][1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Limited (玖龙纸业) experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping over 8% to HKD 5.73, with a trading volume of HKD 101 million [1] - Recent reports suggest that Nine Dragons Paper has reduced prices for various paper products, including a decrease of 70 CNY/ton for corrugated cardboard and recycled paper, and a reduction of 120 CNY/ton for corrugated paper [1] - According to industry data, there is an increasing pressure on domestic finished paper demand as it slows down entering December, with a notable rise in inventory levels for corrugated paper and boxboard [1] Group 2 - As of the week ending December 11, the inventory of corrugated paper among sampled enterprises reached 262,200 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 10.03%, with the growth rate accelerating by 3.93 percentage points compared to the previous week [1]