证 券 研 究 报 告 业绩稳健性凸显，引领银行价值回归 银行业2025年三季报综述 证券分析师： 郑庆明 A0230519090001 林颖颖 A0230522070004 冯思远 A0230522090005 李禹昊 A0230525070004 联系人： 冯思远 A0230522090005 2025.11.4 投资要点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 风险提示：实体需求不振，经济修复节奏低于预期；息差企稳不及预期；部分房企风险扰动、长尾客群风险暴露超预期。 ◼ 受三季度债市利率上行影响，上市银行营收增速小幅放缓符合预期，但利润延续正增。可以关注到，银行主动稳营收态度明确，这也为业 绩稳中有进奠定基础。9M25上市银行营收同比增长0.8%（1H25为1%），归母净利润同比增长1.5%（1H25为0.8%），核心源自三大驱 动，即"利息净收入企稳、中收低位修复、资产质量平稳确保利润可持续"；部分银行主动兑现债券浮盈以稳定营收表现（尤其国有行和 部分中小银行）。子板块看，国有行稳健性好于预期，股份行分化扩大，优质城商行业绩继续领跑，农商行则延续阶段性承压。 ◼ 三季度以国资和险 ...

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 重慶農村商業銀行股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年11月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03618 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,513,336,041 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 2,513,336,041 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,513,336,041 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 2,513,336,041 | ...

FF301 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601077 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 8,843,663,959 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 8,843,663,959 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | RMB | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 8,843,663,959 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 8,843,663,959 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： RMB 11,357,000,000 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 公司名稱: 重慶 ...

证券之星消息，11月3日农商行板块较上一交易日上涨1.58%，渝农商行领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3976.52，上涨0.55%。深证成指报收于13404.06，上涨0.19%。农商行板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601077 | 渝农商行 | 1337.54万 | 2.42% | 5130.09万 | 9.27% | -6467.63万 | -11.69% | | 601825 沪农商行 | | 953.53万 | 7.41% | -863.18万 | -6.71% | -90.35万 | -0.70% | | 002958 青农商行 | | 376.27万 | 2.76% | -885.53万 | -6.50% | - 509.26万 | 3.74% | | 002807 江阴银行 | | 246.76万 | 0.65% | -505.82万 | -1.33% | 259.06 ...

重庆一方面抓好央地战略合作，推动总部金融机构累计向重庆授信5.47万亿元，农行数字运营中心等区域性功能性总部设立运营，工行、农行、交行等金融 资产投资公司（AIC）基金有序落地。另一方面做强地方法人金融机构，重庆银行资产破万亿元，重庆农商行资产规模继续保持全国农商行领先地位，通过 整合国有地方金融组织，在消费金融、融资担保等领域加快形成一批头部机构，油气交易中心等交易场所已初步具备区域性定价功能。 在推动金融服务供给侧改革方面，重庆围绕服务"33618"现代制造业集群体系和"416"科技创新布局等任务，加大资金资源供给力度，先后出台金融支持产业 转型、民营经济、科技创新、中小微企业等专项政策举措。截至9月末，全市制造业中长期贷款、普惠小微贷款余额较2020年末实现翻倍增长，银行业机构 为成渝共建重大项目累计授信超1万亿元。 今年以来，重庆辖区境内上市公司再融资同比增长126%，市值同比增长近50%，上市公司并购重组交易金额同比增长637%，有效发挥资本市场的撬动作 用。其中，赛力斯正在开启港股招股工作，将成为全国首家"A+H"股两地上市的豪华新能源车企。同时，针对间接融资对于投早、投小、投硬科技等短板问 题， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has shown steady operational performance with improving asset quality and stable profit growth. As of Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 21.658 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.67%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 10.694 billion yuan, up 3.74% year-on-year. The non-performing loan ratio has decreased, indicating effective internal controls and risk management [8][6] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company outperformed the CSI 300 index with a 12-month performance of 25.9% compared to the index's 21.1% [4] - As of October 30, 2025, the company's stock price is 6.88 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 78.136 billion yuan [4] Financial Metrics - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported: - Operating revenue: 21.658 billion yuan, up 0.67% year-on-year - Net profit: 10.694 billion yuan, up 3.74% year-on-year - Net interest income: 17.85 billion yuan, up 6.88% year-on-year - The non-performing loan balance stood at 8.711 billion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.12%, down 5 basis points from H1 2025 [8] Risk Management - The company maintains a high provision coverage ratio of 364.82%, which has increased by 1.38 percentage points from the previous year, indicating strong risk resilience [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve the following revenues and net profits for 2025-2027: - Revenue: 28.91 billion yuan (2025), 29.78 billion yuan (2026), 31.26 billion yuan (2027) - Net profit: 12.144 billion yuan (2025), 12.747 billion yuan (2026), 13.314 billion yuan (2027) - The expected growth rates for revenue and net profit are 2.30% and 5.48% respectively for 2025 [9][20]

渝农商行 601077.SH 公司研究 | 季报点评 信贷有力投放，资产质量改善 经济复苏不及预期；信贷需求不及预期；资产质量恶化 渝农商行 25Q3 财报点评 核心观点 25Q3 净息差为 1.59%，较 25H1 仅-1BP，我们测算生息资产收益率较 25H1 仅小幅 下行 2bp，计息负债成本率-3BP。渝农商行存款定期化特征较为明显，后续负债成 本改善空间依然乐观，息差韧性十足。 ⚫ 资产质量改善，核心指标优化。截至 25Q3，渝农商行不良贷款率环比-5bp 至 1.12%，拨备覆盖率提升 9pct 至 365%，核心指标明显优化，风险抵补能力充足。 渝农商行加大不良确认和风险处置力度，为后续经营腾挪空间，或短期扰动利润表 现，展望后续，资产质量有望延续改善趋势。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根 据 25Q3 财报数据，预测公司 25/26/27 年 归 母 净 利 润 同 比 增 速 为 5.7%/8.3%/8.5%， BVPS 为 12.05/13.12/14.29 元（原预测值为 11.85/12.70/13.62 元，主要是适度调整息差及非息收入预期），当前股价对应 25/26/27 年 PB 为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the steady growth in revenue and profit for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank in the first three quarters of 2025, with a focus on the bank's income sources, loan and deposit growth, and asset quality improvements [1][2][3] Revenue and Profit Summary - In the first three quarters of 2025, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank achieved operating income of 21.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1] - Net interest income was 17.85 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year, accounting for 82.6% of total operating income [1] - Net fee income decreased by 16.7% year-on-year, while other non-interest income fell by 22.7% [1] Loan and Deposit Growth - As of Q3 2025, total loans amounted to 777.97 billion yuan, representing an 8.8% year-on-year increase [2] - The breakdown of loans includes corporate loans at 418.73 billion yuan (up 17.1%), personal loans at 303.68 billion yuan (up 3.6%), and bills at 55.56 billion yuan (down 14.0%) [2] - Total deposits reached 1.03 trillion yuan, a 9.3% year-on-year increase, with corporate deposits at 141.4 billion yuan (up 15.8%) and personal deposits at 883.02 billion yuan (up 8.9%) [2] Asset Quality Improvement - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.12%, a decrease of 5 basis points from the previous quarter [2] - The provision coverage ratio improved to 364.82%, an increase of 9.24 percentage points [2] Investment Recommendations - The bank is projected to have a price-to-book ratio of 0.61X in 2025, 0.57X in 2026, and 0.53X in 2027 [3] - Revenue growth is forecasted at 0.6% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, with net profit growth of 5.4%, 4.8%, and 4.0% respectively [3] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.07 yuan in 2025, 1.12 yuan in 2026, and 1.16 yuan in 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Insights - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (渝农商行) reported a slight increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with operating income at 21.658 billion yuan, up 0.67% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 10.694 billion yuan, up 3.74% year-on-year [2] - The bank's non-interest income, which had previously driven growth, saw a significant decline of 21% year-on-year, impacting overall revenue growth [2][6] - The bank's investment income decreased by 8% year-on-year to 3.495 billion yuan, with losses from fair value changes expanding to 807 million yuan [5][6] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank achieved operating income of 21.658 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.67% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.694 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.74% [2] - Non-interest net income for the bank was 3.808 billion yuan, down 21% year-on-year, with a quarterly decline observed: Q1 down 12%, Q2 down 20%, and Q3 down 34% [6] Non-Interest Income Analysis - The decline in non-interest income is attributed to a downturn in the bond market, with the bank's investment income falling by 8% year-on-year [4][6] - The bank's bond investments amounted to 514.5 billion yuan, representing 82% of its total financial investments, but faced challenges in the third quarter due to rising bond yields [4] - The bank's fair value losses increased significantly, indicating a challenging investment environment [5][6] Management and Governance - The bank's new chairman, Liu Xiaojun, has not yet received regulatory approval for his position, with the current president, Sui Jun, acting as chairman for over a year [7][8] - Liu Xiaojun has a strong background in finance, having held various positions in banking and trust companies prior to his current role [8]

证券研究报告 2024 年 10 月 29 日 湘财证券研究所 公司研究 渝农商行（601077.SH） 息差呈现趋稳态势 | 1. | 《业绩持续改善，资产加快增 | | --- | --- | | 长》 | 2024.04.16 | 公司评级：增持（维持） | % | 1 | 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 | 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | 4.6 | | -12.6 | | 8.7 | | 绝对收益 | 7.7 | | 0.9 | | 27.1 | 分析师：郭怡萍 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究： 核心要点： 业绩增长稳定，息差走势趋稳 渝农商行营收增速回升，主要得益于净利息收入修复。根据 2025 年三季报， 渝农商行营业收入同比增长 0.7%，营收增速较上半年提高 0.2 pct，归母净 利润增速为 3.7%，较上半年下降 0.9 pct。净利息收入增速为 6.9%，较上半 年提高 0.9 pct，主要是今年以来净息差降幅明显收窄。 证书编号：S ...