Core Viewpoint - The company, China International Capital Corporation (CICC), is experiencing a decline in stock price while projecting significant profit growth for the upcoming year, driven by its core business in investment banking and asset management [2][8]. Financial Performance - CICC's estimated net profit for the period from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025, is projected to be between 3.453 billion yuan and 3.966 billion yuan, representing a growth of 55% to 78% compared to the previous year's net profit of 2.228 billion yuan [2]. - As of September 30, 2025, CICC reported a net profit of 6.567 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 129.75% [8]. Company Overview - CICC, established on July 31, 1995, operates in various sectors including investment banking, equity sales and trading, fixed income, wealth management, and asset management [7]. - The company's revenue composition includes wealth management (32.58%), equity business (25.78%), fixed income (13.38%), investment banking (11.26%), and other services [7]. Shareholder and Market Activity - As of September 30, 2025, CICC had 118,900 shareholders, a decrease of 4.10% from the previous period, with an average of 24,662 shares held per shareholder, an increase of 4.28% [8]. - The stock has seen a net outflow of 56.3 million yuan today, with a total market capitalization of 170.933 billion yuan [1][5]. Institutional Holdings - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 123 million shares, an increase of 51.425 million shares from the previous period [10].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the recent trading performance and financial metrics of China International Capital Corporation (CICC), indicating a strong net buying position in margin trading and significant growth in net profit year-on-year. Group 1: Trading Performance - On November 13, CICC's stock rose by 1.13% with a trading volume of 565 million yuan [1] - The margin trading data shows that CICC had a financing buy-in of 117 million yuan and a repayment of 113 million yuan, resulting in a net buying of 3.64 million yuan [1] - As of November 13, the total margin trading balance for CICC was 2.957 billion yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 2.82% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level compared to the past year [1] Group 2: Shareholder and Financial Metrics - As of September 30, CICC had 118,900 shareholders, a decrease of 4.10% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 4.28% to 24,662 shares [3] - For the period from January to September 2025, CICC reported a net profit of 6.567 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 129.75% [3] - CICC has distributed a total of 4.924 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.607 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [4] Group 3: Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders of CICC included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 51.425 million shares to 123 million shares [4] - The Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF ranked as the fourth largest circulating shareholder, increasing its holdings by 12.167 million shares to 30.2098 million shares [4] - The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, ranked fifth, saw a decrease in holdings by 869,400 shares to 19.9163 million shares [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise funds for the development of an ASIC chip testing system, with a total fundraising amount not exceeding RMB 74,947.51 million [2][3]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Details - The company intends to issue up to 7,494,751 convertible bonds, each with a face value of RMB 100, and a maturity period of six years from the date of issuance [2]. - The initial conversion price will be determined based on the average trading price of the company's stock over the twenty trading days prior to the announcement of the prospectus, adjusted for any stock splits or dividends [2]. - The specific issuance method will be determined by the board of directors and authorized personnel in consultation with the lead underwriter [3]. Group 2: Fund Utilization - The net proceeds from the bond issuance will be allocated to the research and innovation project based on the self-developed ASIC chip testing system, with a total investment amount of RMB 75,888 million [4]. - The company will prioritize the allocation of convertible bonds to existing shareholders [4]. Group 3: Regulatory and Advisory Aspects - The company will engage a credit rating agency to provide a credit rating report for the bond issuance, and the bonds will not be guaranteed [4]. - The lead underwriter for this issuance is China International Capital Corporation, with designated representatives [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the high-quality development of the capital market will provide critical support for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enabling Chinese securities firms to embark on a journey towards becoming first-class investment banks [9][10]. Group 1: High-Quality Development of Capital Markets - The capital market is positioned as a crucial hub for modern economy and finance, facilitating precise resource allocation to strategic sectors, promoting technological innovation, and enhancing wealth accumulation for residents [3][4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the need for a financial powerhouse, advocating for the development of technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [3][4]. - The focus during the "14th Five-Year Plan" will be on three main directions: the dual expansion of quality assets and funds, steady advancement of high-level institutional openness, and continuous optimization of market ecology under strong regulation [4][5]. Group 2: Asset and Fund Expansion - The article notes that the demand for quality investment and financing tools will continue to grow, with a focus on nurturing a group of quality listed companies and enhancing the direct financing of equity and bonds [5][6]. - Specific measures include deepening reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, improving the identification and pricing mechanisms for technology innovation enterprises, and developing private equity and venture capital funds [5][6]. Group 3: High-Level Institutional Openness - The article discusses the ongoing emphasis on openness in China's capital market, with significant achievements during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, such as the removal of foreign ownership limits and the optimization of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor system [6][7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to further expand institutional openness, supporting the coordinated development of onshore and offshore markets and enhancing the international competitiveness of China's capital market [6][7]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The article highlights that a precise and efficient regulatory framework is essential for the stable operation of the capital market, with a focus on enhancing financial regulation and risk prevention mechanisms [7][8]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes a comprehensive strengthening of financial regulation, emphasizing the need for collaboration between central and local regulatory bodies [7][8]. Group 5: Opportunities for Securities Firms - The high-quality development of the capital market is expected to provide significant opportunities for Chinese securities firms, enabling them to transform their business models and expand their operational scope [9][10]. - The article suggests that the dual expansion of quality assets and funds will drive the transformation of securities firms, while high-level openness will help them break through local boundaries [9][10].

Core Insights - The article outlines the ten major trends expected in the banking sector during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing a shift towards high-quality economic development and a more balanced credit supply-demand relationship [2][9]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Credit Allocation - The focus will shift from traditional quantity-based monetary control to a more nuanced approach, with M2 growth expected to decline from 9.4% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" to 6%-8% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2]. - There will be a significant decrease in the proportion of real estate loans, dropping from approximately 40% in 2017 to around 0% by 2025, while loans for infrastructure, manufacturing, and green finance are expected to rise to over 70% of new credit [2][3]. Group 2: Policy Coordination and Risk Management - Enhanced coordination with fiscal and industrial policies is anticipated, utilizing policy tools to stimulate credit demand and mitigate credit costs for banks [3]. - The banking sector will focus on combating "involution" in competition, moving away from price wars to risk pricing and comprehensive service offerings [4]. Group 3: Profitability and Risk Control - The pressure to maintain reasonable interest margins and profits is expected to increase, with banks needing to balance loan volume and pricing while addressing credit costs [5]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will see a push for debt restructuring among real estate companies, with banks facing pressure to write down debts for problematic firms [6]. Group 4: Support for New Real Estate Models and Local Debt Resolution - The banking sector will explore financing systems for current housing sales, focusing on urban renewal and rental housing to meet demand [6]. - A significant issuance of local government bonds, estimated at 10 trillion yuan, is planned to replace hidden debts, with banks expected to participate in this process [7]. Group 5: Financial Stability and Capital Supplementation - A comprehensive financial safety net will be developed, with a focus on reducing the number of high-risk financial institutions [9]. - External capital supplementation will be necessary due to declining profit margins, with state-owned banks and smaller banks likely to receive fiscal injections [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - Securities firms are optimistic about the industry outlook for 2026, focusing on valuation recovery and structural opportunities, with a shift in market drivers from valuation to earnings fundamentals [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Development Trends - The securities industry is expected to see core growth areas in wealth management, investment banking, internationalization, and technology empowerment [2]. - Wealth management is entering an upward trend, with strong new account openings and record-high financing balances, while A-share daily trading volume is projected to stabilize at 2 trillion yuan [2]. - The construction of product platforms is crucial for the transformation of wealth management, requiring alignment of product supply and sales channels [2]. Group 2: International Business Development - Developing international business is essential for securities firms to become leading investment banks, driven by increasing demand from overseas investors for Chinese assets [3]. - The international business revenue of securities firms has seen significant growth, with historical highs in the first half of 2025, supported by strong cross-border investment demand [3]. - The focus on AI technology applications and cross-border business will enhance service efficiency and asset pricing capabilities, helping to escape the homogenization of competition [3]. Group 3: Valuation Recovery Potential - The current valuation of the securities sector remains relatively low, with a projected net asset return of around 7.2% for 2026, indicating significant room for valuation recovery [4]. - The capital market is undergoing profound changes, with increased attractiveness of equity assets in a low-interest-rate environment, suggesting a positive development cycle ahead [4]. - Improved liquidity and favorable policies are expected to further enhance the valuation of securities stocks as the market improves [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The securities sector is anticipated to undergo a reshaping of its landscape, with a focus on leading firms with international capabilities and comprehensive service advantages [5]. - Mid-sized and large securities firms that can achieve leapfrog development through mergers and acquisitions are also expected to present investment opportunities [5].

Group 1 - The core concept of the report is the establishment of the CICC Wealth Public Fund 50 Selection Pool, which aims to identify approximately 50 outstanding fund managers and around 20 industry-themed funds through a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis since its launch in July 2021 [2][65] - The selection pool covers various asset classes and investment strategies, including value stock selection, growth stock selection, and industry themes, aiming to provide a diversified investment approach [2] Group 2 - The performance of the Public Fund 50 Selection Pool (equity category) has consistently generated positive alpha, outperforming the average performance of mixed equity funds and ordinary stock funds since its inception [7][65] - The average performance of the Public Fund 50 Selection Pool (equity category) over the past three years is 38.7%, compared to 31.0% for the CSI 300 Index [8][9] - As of the end of October, the year-to-date average return for the Public Fund 50 Selection Pool (equity category) is 29.4%, outperforming the average return of other equity funds [13][14] Group 3 - In October, the market experienced a rotation in style, with traditional defensive assets outperforming previously leading growth sectors, indicating a shift towards value stock selection [18] - The industry theme performance showed a rotation, with previously strong sectors like pharmaceuticals and technology experiencing pullbacks, while cyclical sectors began to see opportunities [24] Group 4 - The top 10 fund managers in the Public Fund 50 Selection Pool achieved an average performance of 67.4% year-to-date, with notable performances from managers focusing on sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, and energy [30][33] - The report highlights specific fund managers' strategies, such as focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals and AI-driven technology sectors, indicating a strong belief in the growth potential of these areas [45][51][61] Group 5 - The performance of the Public Fund 50 Selection Pool (debt category) has been influenced by rising risk aversion and declining long-term interest rates, with pure debt funds performing better in the current market environment [37] - The report suggests that for investors seeking stable returns, the value of debt market allocations is increasing, particularly in mixed debt funds and primary and secondary debt funds [37][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry, particularly focusing on equity wealth management [1]. Core Insights - The equity market in China is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth in the issuance of equity mutual funds, indicating a robust development in equity wealth management [4][9]. - The demand for wealth preservation and appreciation among residents is strong, suggesting a shift in asset allocation towards equities, which presents substantial potential for the equity wealth management market [25][30]. - Securities firms are positioned as key players in equity wealth management, benefiting from the sector's growth due to their inherent advantages in market investment capabilities, asset acquisition, research capabilities, and customer base [30][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Equity Market Recovery - As of September 2025, the total market capitalization of the Chinese stock market reached 105 trillion yuan, accounting for 78% of GDP, marking a high since 2022 [9]. - The average monthly new account openings reached 2.9 million from October 2024 to September 2025, a 48% increase from 2023 [9]. - Daily average trading volumes for stock funds hit historical highs, with a peak of 3.6 trillion yuan [9][18]. 2. Future of Equity Wealth Management - The report emphasizes the strong potential for equity wealth management, driven by structural upgrades in the economy, declining interest rates, and supportive policies [25][30]. - The shift in asset allocation from real estate to equities is anticipated, with a growing focus on equity wealth management services [25][30]. 3. Securities Firms' Role - Securities firms are transitioning from traditional brokerage services to wealth management, with a significant reduction in brokerage income share from 70.5% in 2008 to 27% in 2025 [31][32]. - The firms are enhancing their product offerings and investment advisory services, with 29 firms approved for fund advisory business trials [30][35]. - The market share of securities firms in mutual fund distribution has increased from 6% in 2017 to 11% in 2023, with a notable advantage in ETF sales [41][47].

Core Viewpoint - Major brokerage firms are optimistic about the securities industry in 2026, anticipating a "Davis Double Play" due to recovering market conditions and improving fundamentals, while current valuations remain at historical lows [1] Group 1: Performance Growth - The A-share market's upward trend has significantly boosted brokerage firms' performance, with a total margin balance nearing 2.4 trillion yuan and a record high trading volume of 301.56 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - Listed brokerages achieved a net profit of 169.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 63% year-on-year increase, with the third quarter alone reaching a record 72.5 billion yuan [2] - Core business segments such as brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest income, and investment returns saw year-on-year growth rates of 74%, 23%, 2%, 56%, and 43% respectively, indicating a broad-based recovery [2] Group 2: Valuation Discrepancy - Despite strong performance, the brokerage sector's stock prices have lagged, with the Wind brokerage index rising only 6.02% year-to-date compared to significant gains in major indices [3] - The industry is expected to see a return on equity (ROE) of approximately 7.2% in 2026, which is above the 70th percentile since 2016, while current valuations are at the 40th percentile, indicating substantial room for future growth [3] - Institutional holdings in the brokerage sector are at a historical low, with the sector accounting for only 0.86% of actively managed fund holdings as of Q3 2025, underweighting the standard allocation by 3.21 percentage points [3] Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - Wealth management, institutional business, and internationalization are identified as the three main growth engines for the brokerage industry moving forward [6] - The wealth management sector is expected to see a clear upward trend, with daily trading volumes in A-shares potentially stabilizing at 2 trillion yuan, and a recovery in financial product distribution [6] - The investment banking market is recovering, and the international business is benefiting from improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market, with major brokerages increasing their overseas revenue contributions [6] - Mergers and acquisitions, along with the application of AI technology, are anticipated to catalyze further growth in the sector, with policies encouraging consolidation among quality brokerages [6]

来源：瑞恩资本RyanbenCapital 01等 香港今年IPO表现亮眼。 中金公司董事总经理、资本市场部执行负责人施琦在周二(11月11日)举行的「媒体工作坊」上表示，今 年IPO融资规模已经突破300亿美元，较之于去年的100亿美元，与前年的不足60亿，无论从规模、主 题、以及参与度都振奋人心。 施琦透露，目前中金公司在手的IPO储备项目已超100家，其中不乏A股头部企业的港股上市计划。 美股公司回港助纾风险 美股中概股回港潮，则为香港IPO市场提供额外支撑。近期许多在美国上市的中概股，回港双重主要上 市，对于中概股本身也具有提振作用，相信可纾缓一部分退市的风险。 施琦又提及，部分中概股在港上市后，带动美股股价造好，相信可以鼓励更多中概股积极考虑来港双重 上市。 不过近期亦有新股破发，施琦认为或是因行业定位，在港股未算具备稀缺性，但最终的股价表现，相信 仍会是对业绩的兑现。 长线外资参与基石投资更活跃 施琦强调，今年国际长线投资者、主权基金都更加活跃，甚至罕见成为基石投资者。其相信IPO强劲的 势头可以在2026年延续。 年内的基石投资总额约为120亿美元，按照区域口径划分，其中外资占比高达42%。 她 ...