股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 聯邦制藥國際控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03933 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,800,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 | HKD | | 38,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,800,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 | HKD | | 38,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊 ...

Group 1 - The company achieved revenue of 7.519 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.61%, with a net profit of 1.894 billion yuan, up 27.02% [1] - The company's gross margin improved to 52.19%, an increase of 5.58 percentage points, while the net profit margin rose to 25.18%, up 4.44 percentage points [1] - The company maintains a positive long-term outlook, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 2.839 billion, 2.452 billion, and 2.705 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 8.98, 10.4, and 9.43 times [1] Group 2 - The formulation segment led growth with a revenue increase of 65.9% to 3.979 billion yuan, accounting for 52.9% of total external sales, driven by a 74.5% increase in insulin series revenue [2] - The intermediate segment saw a decline of 23.1% to 1.011 billion yuan, while the raw materials segment decreased by 27.0% to 2.530 billion yuan, representing 13.5% and 33.6% of total external sales respectively [2] - The animal health segment reported a revenue of 565 million yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, while the health segment is in the early stages of development with revenue of 11.2 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] Group 3 - The company has made significant progress in its formulation product pipeline, with multiple products receiving key approvals, including liraglutide injection and polyethylene glycol eye drops [2] - The animal health segment has obtained registration approvals for six products in Vietnam and Australia, and is advancing the construction of new production facilities expected to generate over 5 billion yuan in annual output once operational [3] - The company has 61 ongoing research projects covering various animal health areas, including treatments for pets, livestock, poultry, and aquaculture [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has lowered the sales forecast for China National Pharmaceutical Group (03933) for the years 2023 to 2027 by 17.7% to 17.8% [1] - The earnings forecast has been reduced by 28.4% to 35.6% [1] - The firm expects a weak price cycle for antibiotic active pharmaceutical ingredients over the next two years [1] Group 2 - The sales of the company in the first half of the year increased by 5% year-on-year to 7.5 billion RMB [1] - Core business revenue decreased by 15% year-on-year to 6.1 billion RMB, which was below the firm's expectation of 6.5 billion RMB [1] - Profit increased by 27% year-on-year to 1.9 billion RMB, but core profit declined and was below the firm's expectations [1] Group 3 - The firm has raised the target price for the stock from 15.29 HKD to 16.07 HKD, maintaining a "neutral" rating [1] - The sales forecast for high-margin insulin products has been increased by 27% to 30%, benefiting from incremental sales due to exports [1] - The company's gross margin for intermediates and bulk pharmaceuticals has been eroded, and increased administrative expenses due to business expansion consulting fees have been noted [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the sales forecast for China National Pharmaceutical Group (03933) for the years 2023 to 2027 by 17.7% to 17.8%, and the earnings forecast has been reduced by 28.4% to 35.6% due to expected weak pricing cycles for antibiotic active pharmaceutical ingredients [1] Group 1: Sales and Earnings Forecast - The sales forecast for the company has been reduced significantly, reflecting a challenging market environment for its products [1] - The earnings forecast has been adjusted downward, indicating a more pessimistic outlook for profitability in the coming years [1] Group 2: Product Performance - The company is expected to see a 27% to 30% increase in sales of high-margin insulin products, benefiting from incremental sales driven by exports [1] - The sales revenue for the first half of the year increased by 5% year-on-year to 7.5 billion RMB, but core business revenue fell by 15% year-on-year to 6.1 billion RMB, which was below Goldman Sachs' expectation of 6.5 billion RMB [1] Group 3: Profitability and Costs - The company's profit increased by 27% year-on-year to 1.9 billion RMB, but core profit declined and fell short of expectations [1] - The gross margin for intermediates and bulk pharmaceuticals has been eroded, and increased administrative expenses due to business expansion consulting fees have impacted profitability [1] Group 4: Stock Target and Rating - Goldman Sachs has raised the target price for the stock from 15.29 HKD to 16.07 HKD, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the recent surge in the stock prices of innovative pharmaceutical companies in China, with notable increases in companies such as Four Seasons Pharmaceutical, Hengrui Medicine, and WuXi AppTec [1] - Foreign investments have intensified in Chinese innovative drug companies, with significant share purchases by entities like the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) and BlackRock [1] - GIC increased its stake in Hengrui Medicine by acquiring 40.22 million shares at an average price of 12.7133 HKD per share, raising its ownership from 1.62% to 6.37% [1] Group 2 - The domestic innovative drug sector has experienced rapid growth, with 83 licensing agreements reached this year, totaling approximately 84.53 billion USD, including upfront payments of 4.32 billion USD [2] - The upcoming World Conference on Lung Cancer (WCLC) from September 6-9, 2025, is expected to showcase 35 oral presentations by Chinese scholars, highlighting the clinical data of domestic new drugs [2] - There is optimism regarding the value recovery of core assets in the second half of the year, as noted by Zhongyou Securities [2]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stocks - Photovoltaic stocks rose in the morning, with Xinyi Solar (00968) up over 3%, Fuyao Glass (03606) up over 3%, and GCL-Poly Energy (00451) up over 3%. Domestic leading polysilicon companies have raised prices, and the market is focused on the restructuring progress in the polysilicon industry [1] - Heng Rui Medicine (01276) increased by over 5% after announcing the approval of HRS-7172 tablets for clinical trials by the National Medical Products Administration on September 2 [1] - Qingdao Bank (03866) rose over 2% as its major shareholder plans to increase holdings by 233 million to 291 million shares, recognizing the long-term investment value of the bank's stock [1] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) increased by over 1%, with a total market value exceeding HKD 100 billion, and the company is accelerating overseas project construction, indicating future growth potential [1] - Zhongsheng Holdings (00881) rose over 4%, with management optimistic about the new car market and smooth progress in the company's new energy business [1] - Innovent Biologics (09969) increased by over 5% after disclosing its interim performance report, with core products driving growth and accelerating multiple self-immune phase III clinical trials [1] - United Laboratories (03933) rose over 6% after announcing a 27% year-on-year increase in profit attributable to shareholders in its half-year results, with key progress in several products in the formulation segment [1] Group 2: U.S. Stocks - NIO (NIO.US) rose 3.13%, with vehicle deliveries in August 2025 reaching 31,305 units, a year-on-year increase of 55.2%, and total deliveries since 2025 reaching 166,472 units, up 30.0% [3] - Hesai Technology (HSAI.US) fell 2.91% as it plans to list in Hong Kong after passing the hearing [3] - Eli Lilly (LLY.US) rose 0.36% after Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug Wegovy outperformed it in a real-world comparative study [3] - Zai Lab (ZLAB.US) increased by 0.73% after announcing that its drug was approved in Hong Kong for treating recurrent or metastatic cervical cancer [3] - Beike (BEKE.US) rose 4.89% after reporting a 11.3% year-on-year increase in net income for the second quarter, leading multiple institutions to reaffirm a "buy" rating [3] - Gold stocks rose against the trend, with Gold Resource (GORO.US) up 15.80%, Harmony Gold (HMY.US) up 7.53%, and Kinross Gold (KGC.US) up 2.68%, driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and a weak dollar [3] - Corning (GLW.US) rose 2.15% after UBS raised its target price from $65 to $84 and upgraded its rating from "neutral" to "buy" [4] - Li Auto (LI.US) rose 4.50% as the founder announced plans to fully enter the high-end pure electric SUV market [4]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Pharmaceutical (03933) reported a positive performance for the first half of 2025, driven by a one-time contribution from the UBT251 licensing fee and increased sales of insulin products [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for H1 2025 reached 7.519 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] - Gross profit amounted to 3.924 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 52.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6 percentage points [1] - Pre-tax profit was 2.420 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 27.24% [1] - Net profit stood at 1.894 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.02% [1] Product Development and Collaborations - The company has made significant progress in its research projects, with several formulation products achieving key milestones [1] - Liraglutide injection has been approved for market launch, and polyethylene glycol eye drops have passed approval [1] - The application for semaglutide injection has been accepted, and ceftriaxone sodium for injection has passed the consistency evaluation for generic drugs [1] - The licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for UBT251 further enhances the company's innovative drug collaboration strategy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Pharmaceutical (03933) reported a strong performance for the first half of 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by licensing fees and increased sales of insulin products [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 7.519 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] - Gross profit reached 3.924 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 52.2%, up by 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Pre-tax profit was 2.420 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 27.24% [1] - Net profit amounted to 1.894 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.02% [1] Project Development - The company has made significant progress in its research projects, with multiple formulation products achieving key milestones [1] - Liraglutide injection has been approved for market launch, and polyethylene glycol eye drops have passed approval [1] - The application for semaglutide injection has been accepted, and ceftriaxone sodium for injection has passed the consistency evaluation for generic drugs [1] - The licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for UBT251 further enhances the company's innovative drug collaboration strategy [1]

Summary of Key Points Overall Market Trends - The overall market shows a rebound in institutional attention, particularly in the mechanical, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors [5][6][7] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices have shown varied performance across different sectors, with banking and utilities leading in gains [1][2] Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is witnessing significant advancements in the small molecule GLP-1RA space, with Orforglipron leading globally and domestic pipelines gaining value [28][30][31] - The mechanical industry is focusing on unmanned intelligent equipment, highlighted by the upcoming military parade showcasing new technologies [35][36][38] Company-Specific Updates - **Old Phoenix (老凤祥)**: The company reported a 10.5% year-on-year increase in Q2 revenue, with a focus on brand rejuvenation and product upgrades [42][44] - **Federation Pharmaceutical (联邦制药)**: The company achieved a 4.61% increase in revenue for H1 2025, with significant growth in its formulation segment [46][48] - **Giant Star Agriculture (巨星农牧)**: The company experienced a 66.49% increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by a substantial rise in pig sales [51][52] - **China Shenhua (中国神华)**: The company reported a decline in revenue but maintained strong integrated operations, with a focus on asset injection and sustainable dividends [56][58] Investment Recommendations - The small molecule GLP-1RA market is expected to provide new growth opportunities, with several domestic companies positioned to benefit from international expansion [33] - Companies involved in the mechanical sector, particularly those developing robotic technologies, are recommended for investment due to their innovative potential [39][40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.519 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.61%. The net profit reached 1.894 billion yuan, up by 27.02%, with a non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.894 billion yuan, increasing by 37.37%. The gross margin was 52.19%, up by 5.58 percentage points, and the net margin was 25.18%, up by 4.44 percentage points. The long-term development of the company is viewed positively, maintaining profit forecasts for 2025-2027 with expected net profits of 2.839 billion, 2.452 billion, and 2.705 billion yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.98, 10.4, and 9.43 times for the years 2025-2027 [7][8] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the formulation segment led growth with a revenue increase of 65.9% to 3.979 billion yuan, accounting for 52.9% of total external sales. The insulin series showed outstanding performance with a revenue growth of 74.5% and a sales volume increase of 90.4%. The revenue from external licensing reached 1.434 billion yuan, mainly from the UBT251 licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk. However, the intermediate and raw material drug segments faced revenue declines of 23.1% and 27.0%, respectively [8][9] Research and Development Progress - The company has made significant progress in its R&D projects, with multiple products in the formulation segment receiving key approvals, including liraglutide injection and polyethylene glycol eye drops. The animal health segment is expanding with six product registrations in Vietnam and Australia, and 19 overseas registrations initiated. The new production facilities are expected to add over 5 billion yuan in annual output once fully operational, with 61 ongoing R&D projects covering various animal health areas [9][8]