Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Securities projects that Lianbang Pharmaceutical (03933) will achieve revenues of 15.088 billion, 14.651 billion, and 16.036 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, -2.9%, and 9.5% respectively, and net profits attributable to the parent company of 2.758 billion, 2.638 billion, and 2.956 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 3.7%, -4.3%, and 12.1% [1] Company Overview - Lianbang Pharmaceutical is recognized as a leading full-industry chain pharmaceutical group in China, currently transforming into an innovative drug company focused on metabolic diseases, driven by its innovation pipeline [1] - The company maintains a strong competitive position in traditional businesses, particularly in penicillin intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients, leveraging vertical integration to enhance cost competitiveness [1] Business Segments - The insulin formulation and animal health businesses are experiencing steady growth, contributing to sustained performance momentum [1] - The innovative business segment has achieved significant milestones, including the authorization of UBT251 (a GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-target agonist), showcasing the company's research and development capabilities [1] Financial Projections - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11, 12, and 10 times respectively, reflecting the company's growth potential and market positioning [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) due to smooth commercialization progress and further updates on HARMONi data [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.412 billion RMB in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.75%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -570 million RMB [7]. - The commercialization of key products, namely Cadonilimab and Ivosidenib, has driven revenue growth, with product sales revenue increasing by 49.20% year-on-year [7]. - The HARMONi study presented at the WCLC 2025 conference showed improved overall survival (OS) data, with an OS hazard ratio (HR) of 0.78, indicating significant survival benefits [7]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 34.19 billion RMB, 55.98 billion RMB, and 85.77 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023, 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 4,526 million RMB, 2,124 million RMB, 3,419 million RMB, 5,598 million RMB, and 8,577 million RMB, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 440.3%, -53.1%, 61.0%, 63.7%, and 53.2% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2,028.30 million RMB in 2023, -514.52 million RMB in 2024, -29.64 million RMB in 2025E, 586.11 million RMB in 2026E, and 1,485.85 million RMB in 2027E, with growth rates of 273.6%, -125.4%, 94.2%, 2077.2%, and 153.5% respectively [6]. - The company's reasonable equity value is estimated at 187.5 billion HKD, assuming a perpetual growth rate of 3% and a WACC of 7.06% [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for CSPC Pharmaceutical Group [3][9][16] Core Insights - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group's revenue for the first half of 2025 decreased by 18.5% year-on-year to RMB 13.27 billion, and net profit fell by 15.6% to RMB 2.55 billion, which is in line with expectations [5][12] - The decline in performance is primarily due to the impact of centralized procurement on key oncology products, leading to a 60.8% drop in oncology product sales [6][13] - The company has made significant progress in business development (BD) collaborations, achieving four license-out agreements since February 2025, with total upfront payments of USD 260 million and milestone payments of USD 9.45 billion [7][14] Financial Performance - The finished drug sector saw a 24.4% decline in sales to RMB 10.25 billion, with oncology products contributing only 10.3% of total finished drug sales [6][13] - The gross margin decreased by 6.0 percentage points to 65.6%, while the selling expense ratio improved, decreasing by 6.4 percentage points to 23.0% [5][12] - R&D expenses increased by 5.5% year-on-year to RMB 2.68 billion, with a focus on innovative pipelines, including 27 key products in pivotal clinical trials [8][15] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been raised from RMB 0.44 to RMB 0.46, with further increases projected for 2026 and 2027 [9][16] - The target price has been adjusted from HKD 10.2 to HKD 12.7, indicating a potential upside of 31% [9][16]