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【招银研究】关税主导预期,关注政策对冲——宏观与策略周度前瞻(2025.04.21-04.25)
招商银行研究· 2025-04-21 09:53
海外策略:关税主导预期,降息高度谨慎 美债方面,受益于关税政策的暂缓、贝森特表明会在必要时支持美债市场,美债市场的悲观情绪有所缓和,美 债利率高位回落。从基本面的角度来看,我们认为美国经济滞胀风险正在升高,美联储受制于通胀担忧,短期 内降息概率不高,美债利率走势或为宽幅震荡,维持高配中短久期美债的观点不变。 美元方面,短期看,美元有可能进一步向下。中期看,美元基本面的优势正在明显下降。一方面德国财政立场 由保守转为扩张令"美强欧弱"叙事遭遇挑战。另一方面,市场对关税政策的担忧更多集中在了"衰退"层面,美 国经济下行风险增大,对美元不利。 人民币方面,汇率依然面临中美利差倒挂、关税等客观压力。但是自美国推出对等关税以来,CNY中间价仅 缓慢抬升,稳汇率信号较强,叠加美元下行,未来人民币走势预计将以双向波动为主。 黄金方面,中性偏多。第一,美国滞胀风险上升。第二,关税政策不确定性升高,有利于强化央行购金逻辑。 第三,市场避险情绪仍然偏强。 关税博弈主导预期走势,特朗普与美联储的矛盾持续激化。 特朗普关税政策转向缓和,不仅对除中国以外国家暂缓关税90天,而且公开表示将在3-4周内与中国达成协 议。美国经济继续处于非 ...
小招喵发饭票啦!新户办卡达标送饿了么年卡和60元外卖券,还可周三5折吃大餐!
招商银行App· 2025-04-21 06:16
2 招商 银行 信用卡 饿了么联名卡焕新上市 达标免费领超级吃货年卡及60元外卖券包 C·TETZ : 招商 银行 点击办卡 美团联名卡 A 招商银行 新户达标领88.88元美团 消费立减券等好礼多选一 点击申请 星座守护卡(HOT 新户达标领品牌拉杆箱 等好礼多选一 M 招商 很 有 京东 其它热门卡片 星巴克联名卡 新户达标领6杯星巴克咖啡 或定制杯一个(颜色随机) 新户达标领京东PLUS会员 年卡 已持卡人加办信用卡 京东联名卡 点击申请 点击申请 点击申请 宝可梦粉丝卡 新户达标领创意甜简杯 等好礼多选一 点击申请 查看更多卡片 持卡精彩权益 吃大餐 周三5折起享美食 享好礼 积分可兑缤纷好礼 若您已持有招商银行信用卡,可戳此链接加办。加办的信用卡,额度 与已持有的信用卡共享,且不享有新户礼。 查看活动细则 想申请其他信用卡? 点击"阅读原文"即可快速浏览 长按识别 招商银行App官方微信 支付、理财、借钱,一个App "收藏"也点下 点点"赞" 点点"分享" (四 ...
中证香港上市可交易内地银行指数报1059.57点,前十大权重包含中信银行等
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-04-18 15:21
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the China Securities Index for Hong Kong-listed mainland banks has shown a mixed performance, with a recent decline of 5.22% over the past month, but an increase of 10.24% over the last three months and a year-to-date rise of 5.40% [1] - The index, which reflects the performance of high liquidity and easy short-selling securities in the Hong Kong market, includes three thematic indices: HKT Hong Kong Real Estate, HKT Mainland Consumption, and HKT Mainland Banks [1] - The index is based on a reference date of December 31, 2007, with a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 2 - The top ten holdings in the index are dominated by major banks, with China Construction Bank at 28.87%, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at 22.76%, and Bank of China at 18.2% [1] - The index's holdings are entirely composed of financial sector stocks, with 100% representation from the financial industry [1] - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]
香港交易所信息显示,贝莱德在招商银行的持股比例于04月14日从5.01%降至4.97%。
news flash· 2025-04-17 09:08
香港交易所信息显示, 贝莱德在 招商银行的持股比例于04月14日从5.01%降至4.97%。 ...
商业银行频频调整积存金起购门槛 “黄金+”理财产品营销升温
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-04-16 16:41
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching a record high of $3300 per ounce, has prompted multiple commercial banks to adjust the minimum subscription amounts for their gold accumulation business, reflecting increased interest in gold investments [1][2]. Group 1: Bank Adjustments - More than five banks have announced adjustments to their gold accumulation business minimum subscription amounts since March, indicating a trend among major banks to raise these thresholds [1][2]. - China Merchants Bank has raised its gold account subscription minimum from 750 yuan to 800 yuan, marking the third increase this year, with an adjustment exceeding 20% [2]. - Other banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank, have also raised their minimum subscription amounts, which now range from 750 yuan to 1000 yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in minimum subscription amounts is primarily driven by risk management considerations, aiming to curb irrational trading behaviors among small investors amid rising gold prices [3]. - The adjustments also reflect a compliance strategy, ensuring that banks operate within regulatory frameworks while promoting prudent investment practices among clients [3]. Group 3: Investment Products - In addition to gold accumulation services, banks are actively marketing "gold+" wealth management products, with 63 such products available as of April 16, 2023 [4]. - These products include a mix of fixed income, gold ETFs, and other strategies, indicating a diversified approach to gold investment [4]. - The overall gold price has increased by over 25% since the beginning of the year, further driving interest in these financial products [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while short-term adjustments in gold prices may occur, the long-term fundamentals remain strong due to global economic uncertainties and central bank demand for gold [4]. - Investors are advised to approach gold investments with a long-term perspective, considering their risk tolerance and market dynamics [5].
招商银行:2024年净利润1483.91亿元 同比增长1.22% 拟每股派息2元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-16 14:50
001 900 80 78°54 72021 70 69.6 65:09 60 51-96 54065 50 44019 40 30 20 12698 10 0 2019-12-37 1 1-12-37 J-72-37 J6-30 2n- 制图数据来自恒生聚源数据库 市净率(LF)历史分位(%) 001 900 80 73x62 70 65.22 63 55 60 -59-03 50 44:02 40 40.14 33d6 30 20 10 9 38 0 2019-12-37 1 -1-12-37 <- 12-37 5-30 < - - - 1-OF 2n- 制图数据来自恒生聚源数据库 中证智能财讯 招商银行(03968)4月16日披露2024年度报告。报告期内,公司实现营业总收入3344.89亿元,同比下降0.63%;归母净利润1483.91亿元,同 比增长1.22%;经营活动产生的现金流量净额为4470.23亿元,同比增长24.95%;据报告显示,招商银行基本每股收益为5.66元,加权平均净资产收益率为 14.49%。公司2024年分配预案为:每股派息2元。 以4月16日收盘价计算,招商银行目前市盈率(T ...
“孙悟空都得卖金箍棒!”金价飙涨,多银行上调积存金起购点
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-04-16 13:20
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has reached historical highs, prompting banks to adjust their gold account minimum investment amounts and raising concerns among investors about market volatility [2][4][14]. Gold Price Surge - On April 16, gold prices exceeded $3,300 per ounce in London and COMEX futures, while Shanghai's spot gold reached 782 RMB per gram, marking a new high [2][9]. - The increase in gold prices has led to a rise in offline gold jewelry prices, with several domestic jewelry brands reporting prices over 1,000 RMB per gram for pure gold [2][12]. Bank Adjustments - Several banks, including China Merchants Bank, have raised the minimum investment amount for gold accounts, with the threshold increasing from 750 RMB to 800 RMB [4][5]. - Other banks, such as Everbright Bank and Bank of China, have also adjusted their minimum purchase amounts for gold accumulation products, reflecting the broader trend in the banking sector [6][9]. Market Volatility - The fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to various factors, including macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy changes, and geopolitical events [4][14]. - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility was exacerbated by unexpected policy announcements, leading to significant market reactions and liquidity demands [14][15]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, with potential increases of 10% to 16% in the near term due to ongoing demand for safe-haven assets and central bank gold reserves [15]. - The market is closely monitoring the impact of U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve policies, which could further influence gold price movements [14][15].
招商银行(03968) - 2024 - 年度财报
2025-04-16 08:31
Financial Performance - The average return on equity (ROAE) for the year reached 14.49%[7] - Operating net income reached CNY 337.12 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 1.22% to CNY 148.39 billion[19] - The company's operating income for 2024 was RMB 337,121 million, a decrease of 0.58% compared to RMB 339,078 million in 2023[43] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was RMB 148,391 million, reflecting a growth of 1.22% from RMB 146,602 million in 2023[43] - The average return on total assets (ROAA) was 1.28%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points year-on-year[49] - The average return on total assets decreased to 1.28% in 2024, down from 1.39% in 2023, a decline of 0.11 percentage points[45] - The company achieved a net interest income of RMB 211.28 billion, a decrease of 1.58% year-on-year[49] - The total operating income for the year was RMB 337.12 billion, down 0.58% compared to the previous year[49] Asset and Deposit Growth - Total assets exceeded RMB 12 trillion, with deposits surpassing RMB 9 trillion, both growing by over 10% year-on-year[7] - Total assets reached RMB 12,152.04 billion, representing a growth of 10.19% from the previous year[49] - Customer deposits rose by 11.54% to RMB 9,096,587 million in 2024, compared to RMB 8,155,438 million in 2023[43] - The average daily balance of demand deposits accounted for 50.34% of total customer deposits, a decrease of 6.74 percentage points year-over-year, indicating a shift in customer investment preferences towards time deposits[99] - As of December 31, 2024, total customer deposits reached RMB 909,658.7 million, an increase of 11.54% year-over-year, accounting for 83.31% of total liabilities[97] Loan and Financing Activities - The total financing amount (FPA) for corporate clients surpassed RMB 6 trillion, with increased loan proportions in key sectors such as technology, green finance, and manufacturing[8] - The total amount of loans and advances was RMB 688,831.5 million, with a non-performing loan (NPL) balance of RMB 656.10 million, maintaining an NPL ratio of 0.95%[103] - Corporate loans amounted to RMB 2,863,740 million, representing 41.57% of total loans, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.06%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points year-over-year[104] - Retail loans reached RMB 3,644,625 million, accounting for 52.91% of total loans, with a non-performing loan balance of RMB 351.35 million, an increase of 45.48 million year-over-year[106] - The total amount of loans to the top ten single borrowers was RMB 143.59 billion, accounting for 10.95% of the group's net capital under the advanced method[116] Risk Management and Asset Quality - The company maintained a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and provision coverage ratio at a competitive level among listed banks[7] - Non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.95%, with a provision coverage ratio of 411.98%[19] - The company has strengthened comprehensive risk management to mitigate risks in key areas and maintain systemic stability[7] - The company has implemented a comprehensive risk management system, enhancing the identification and monitoring of various risks, including credit and market risks[152] - The company aims to strengthen risk management in key areas such as personal housing loans and small micro loans, ensuring overall asset quality remains stable[171] Capital Adequacy and Financial Stability - Core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved by 1.13 percentage points to 14.86%, while total capital adequacy ratio reached 19.05%[19] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 14.86%, up 1.13 percentage points from the previous year, while the total capital adequacy ratio was 19.05%, up 1.17 percentage points[123] - The company's net core Tier 1 capital was RMB 914,275 million, up 14.06% from RMB 801,565 million at the end of the previous year[130] - The risk-weighted assets (RWA) not considering capital floor requirements were RMB 6,160,977 million, an increase of 16.35% from RMB 5,295,085 million at the end of the previous year[127] Customer Base and Engagement - Retail customer base exceeded 200 million, with total assets under management (AUM) approaching CNY 15 trillion[9] - The total number of retail customers reached 210 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.60%[140] - The total number of corporate customers served reached 3.1664 million, up by 12.26% year-on-year[141] - The number of wealth management product holding customers reached 58.22 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.31%, reflecting enhanced service capabilities[186] Digital Transformation and Innovation - The bank launched the first open-source financial model with 100 billion parameters in the domestic banking sector[9] - The bank plans to strengthen AI and financial integration, expanding its digital capabilities and ecosystem[14] - The company aims to enhance digital capabilities and improve operational efficiency through the application of financial technology and AI[192] - The "Kaiyang Portal" open operation service platform has completed intelligent transformation for over 730 operational processes, improving the efficiency of key business processes by 58.32% compared to the end of the previous year[149] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 2.000 per share for the 2024 fiscal year, pending shareholder approval[6] - The bank's capital growth trend remains strong, maintaining a leading dividend payout ratio[9] Awards and Recognition - The company received multiple awards in 2024, including "Best Wealth Management Bank in Asia-Pacific" and "Best Retail Bank in China" from The Asian Banker[42]
招商银行:自4月21日起,黄金账户活期及黄金账户定投起点金额由750元上调为800元
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-04-16 02:41
4月15日,招商银行发布公告,近期国际金融市场环境复杂多变,黄金价格呈现较大幅度波动。现就相关事宜通告如 下: 一、黄金账户认购起点金额调整 根据黄金积存业务相关监管规定,该行将对零售黄金账户业务进行调整,具体如下: 自2025年4月21日(周一)起,黄金账户活期及黄金账户定投按金额认购的起点由750元调整为800元。调整前已设置 成功的定投计划(含普通定投与智能定投)将继续执行,不受影响。调整后新发起的定投计划金额须满足该行最新起 点要求。 (3)保值看涨金 为保持一致性,从2025年4月23日(周三)起,保值看涨金的赎回时间从交易日北京时间9:00-22:00调整为9:10-22:00。 (招商银行) 为优化客户体验,该行将进行系统升级,黄金账户业务主动购买或赎回黄金份额的服务时段将由交易日北京时间9:00- 24:00调整为9:10-次日02:00。本次调整将分为两个阶段进行: 第一阶段,自2025年4月23日(周三)起,黄金账户业务主动购买或赎回黄金份额的服务时段将由交易日北京时间 9:00-24:00调整为9:10-24:00(交易日与上海黄金交易所交易日保持一致)。 第二阶段,黄金账户业务主动购买 ...
招商银行(600036) - [H股公告]招商银行股份有限公司董事会会议召开日期
2025-04-15 09:16
香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責,對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明,並明確表示,概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 招商銀行股份有限公司 CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO., LTD. (於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司) (H股股票代碼:03968) 董事會會議召開日期 招商銀行股份有限公司(「本公司」)董事會(「董事會」)茲通告謹定於2025年4月29 日(星期二)舉行董事會會議,藉以審議及批准刊發本公司截至2025年3月31日止 三個月之第一季度業績公告。 招商銀行股份有限公司董事會 2025年4月15日 於本公告日期,本公司的執行董事為王良、鍾德勝及朱江濤;本公司的非執行 董事為繆建民、石岱、孫雲飛、朱立偉及黃堅;及本公司的獨立非執行董事為 李孟剛、劉俏、田宏啟、李朝鮮、史永東及李健。 ...