Group 1 - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association held a meeting to analyze the operational status of key enterprises in the nonferrous metals industry for Q3, emphasizing the need to maintain industry confidence and prevent unhealthy competition [1] - Rare earths, referred to as "industrial vitamins," consist of 17 chemical elements and are widely used in high-end manufacturing sectors such as new energy and semiconductors [1] - Recent price increases for lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolytes were noted, with electrolyte prices reaching 25,500 yuan/ton (up 25.62%) and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices at 98,000 yuan/ton (up 63.33%) due to supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 2 - The Democratic Republic of Congo adjusted its export policy, limiting export quotas to 48% of 2024 production, contributing to a significant increase in cobalt prices from 170,000 yuan/ton to 410,000 yuan/ton (a 140% rise) [2] - Australia is restricting rare earth exports and establishing a critical minerals fund to support project development [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries, which is expected to drive technological breakthroughs and industrialization in related materials sectors [2] Group 3 - As of October 29, 2025, the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index rose by 2.52%, with the Rare Metals ETF (159608) increasing by 2.69%, indicating strong market performance [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 59.91%, with significant gains observed in companies like Tungsten High-Tech and Shengxin Lithium Energy [3] - The Rare Metals ETF has seen a scale increase of 331 million yuan over the past month, reflecting substantial capital inflow [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong performance, with notable increases in stock prices for companies such as China Aluminum, which rose over 5%, and others like Luoyang Molybdenum, Shandong Gold, and Ganfeng Lithium, which saw increases of over 3% [1] - The mining ETF also showed a significant rise, increasing by over 3% due to the positive market sentiment [1] Group 2 - A brokerage firm indicated that the non-ferrous metal sector will continue to face high market volatility risks in 2025, influenced by uncertainties from both demand and supply sides [2] - However, emerging demand in the downstream structure of copper and aluminum has shifted from quantitative to qualitative changes, which is expected to support a long-term upward adjustment in the price center of non-ferrous metals [2]

Core Insights - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. has seen a significant stock price increase of 169.03% year-to-date, with a recent 10.75% rise over the last five trading days [2] - The company reported a revenue of 1454.85 billion yuan for the period from January to September 2025, a decrease of 5.99% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.61% to 142.80 billion yuan [3] Stock Performance - As of October 29, the stock price reached 17.21 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 4.95 billion yuan and a market capitalization of 3681.96 billion yuan [1] - The stock has experienced a 37.46% increase over the last 20 days and an 86.05% increase over the last 60 days [2] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 304,200, up by 28.08% from the previous period [3] - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 695 million shares, an increase of 47.47 million shares [4] Business Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum primarily engages in the mining, selection, deep processing, and trading of rare metals such as molybdenum, tungsten, and gold [3] - The revenue composition includes refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), and other metals such as copper (27.14%) and cobalt (6.04%) [3] Dividend Information - The company has distributed a total of 215.62 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 105.76 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the third quarter of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 96.4%, reaching 56.08 billion yuan, despite a slight decline in total revenue [5] - The production of copper and cobalt has shown a steady increase, with copper production reaching 543,000 tons, up 14.1% year-on-year, and cobalt production at 88,000 tons, up 3.8% [8] - The KFM Phase II project is expected to be completed and operational by 2027, with an investment of 1.084 billion USD, which will enhance the company's production capacity [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, total revenue was 50.713 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.36% year-on-year, while net profit for the first three quarters reached 142.8 billion yuan, an increase of 72.61% [5] - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 192.65 billion, 224.57 billion, and 247.08 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on performance [8] Production and Pricing - The average price of copper in Q3 was 79,500 yuan per ton, up 2.34% from the previous quarter, while cobalt prices rose by 11.42% to 266,800 yuan per ton [8] - The gross margin for cobalt reached 63.46%, an increase of 26.97 percentage points year-on-year, while copper's gross margin was 54.07%, up 1.73 percentage points [8] Future Outlook - The expansion of overseas copper and cobalt mining projects is expected to steadily increase production, enhancing the company's growth potential [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from higher metal prices due to its cost advantages, which may lead to greater earnings elasticity [8]

Core Insights - CMOC Group reported record high results for 3Q25, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing 73% YoY to Rmb14.3 billion, driven by increased sales volume and prices of metal products [1] Financial Performance - In 1–3Q25, revenue decreased by 6% YoY to Rmb145.5 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 73% YoY to Rmb14.3 billion [1] - For 3Q25, revenue fell 2% YoY but rose 4% QoQ to Rmb50.7 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing 96% YoY and 19% QoQ to Rmb5.6 billion [1] - Copper and cobalt output rose 14% and 4% YoY, respectively, in 1–3Q25, meeting 86% and 80% of the firm's annual guidance [1] Sales and Pricing - Copper sales volume increased by 11% YoY, while cobalt sales volume fell by 36% YoY in 1–3Q25, primarily due to a cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of the Congo [1] - Average prices for copper, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and phosphorus rose by 4%, 15%, 7%, 30%, 8%, and 20% YoY, respectively, in 1–3Q25 [1] Strategic Developments - The firm announced the Phase II KFM project, targeting an annual copper production capacity of 800,000 to 1 million tons, expected to start production in 2027 [2] - A significant equity incentive plan was proposed to issue 393 million H shares to retain core talent [3] Market Dynamics - Tightening supply and demand dynamics are expected to push up cobalt prices, with the DRC's cobalt quota for 2026/27 accounting for 44% of its 2024 output [4] - The company holds the highest local market quota for cobalt, which is projected to account for 32% of the total local quota and 29% of its 2024 sales volume [4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 26.6% and 32.0%, respectively, to Rmb20.67 billion and Rmb27.25 billion [5] - A-share stock is trading at 17.4x 2025e and 13.2x 2026e P/E, while H-share stock is trading at 15.4x 2025e and 11.5x 2026e P/E [5] - Target prices for A-shares and H-shares have been raised by 41% to Rmb20.4 and HK$19.7, respectively, implying a 21.6% upside [5]

+4%/+15%/+7%/+30%/+8%/+20%。 发展趋势 KFM 二期规划发布，组织升级叠加股权激励，剑指世界一流矿企。据公告，一是公司围绕80-100 万吨 的铜年产能目标，发布KFM 二期项目规划，公司预计于2027 年投产，达产后新增年平均10 万吨铜金 属。二是继今年4 月份4 位新高管的任命后，公司此次任命先进制造业资深高管彭旭辉先生担任总裁及 CEO，组织升级落下关键一子。三是公司于9 月23 日晚发布重磅股权激励计划，拟推出涵盖3.93 亿港股 的激励计划，绑定核心人才。 机构：中金公司 研究员：何曼文/齐丁/陈彦 3Q25 业绩创同期历史新高，超出我们预期 公司公布3Q25 业绩：1-3Q25 实现营业收入1455 亿元，同比-6%，归母净利润143 亿元，同比+73%。 3Q25 实现营业收入507 亿元，同/环比-2%/+4%；归母净利润56 亿元，同/环比+96%/+19%。业绩超出我 们预期主要系多数金属产品量价齐升。 产量方面，前三季度铜/钴产量同比+14%/+4%，占年度指引中值为86%/80%；其他产品产量占年度指引 中值均超75%。销量方面，前三季度铜/钴销量同比+11 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance has been positively impacted by the significant increase in copper and cobalt prices, leading to a rise in overall profitability [3] - The gross profit margin for the mining segment reached 53%, with copper and cobalt contributing 70% and 13% to the gross profit, respectively [3] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 73% [3] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards due to the rise in copper and cobalt prices, with net profits projected at 18.8 billion, 25.5 billion, and 29.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company reported total revenue of 145.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, while the net profit for Q3 2025 was 5.61 billion yuan, up 96.4% year-on-year [8][3] - The company’s copper production reached 543,000 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, achieving 86% of its annual target [8][3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.88 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.06 [1][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 145.49 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.6% to 14.28 billion yuan [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 50.71 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 5.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 96.4% [1]. - The company has exceeded its production targets for copper and other products, with copper production reaching 540,000 tons, a 14% increase year-on-year [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company’s operating income was 145.49 billion yuan, with a net profit of 14.28 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 14.54 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company’s operating costs decreased by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, and the overall recovery rate improved from approximately 88% to 91% [2]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 19.5 billion yuan, 23.7 billion yuan, and 25.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.91, 1.10, and 1.17 [7]. Production and Pricing Insights - The company’s copper production in Q3 2025 was 190,000 tons, a 4% increase from the previous quarter, while diamond production decreased by 12% to 27,000 tons [2]. - The LME copper price in Q3 2025 increased by 4% to 9,864 USD/ton, while domestic prices for other products also saw significant increases [2]. - The company is actively expanding its copper production capacity with ongoing projects, including the TFM and KFM expansions, which are expected to significantly boost future output [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 145.49 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 72.6% to 14.28 billion yuan [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 50.71 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 5.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 96.4% [1]. - The company has exceeded production targets for copper and other products, with copper production reaching 540,000 tons, a 14% increase year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-3 2025, the company reported a net profit of 14.28 billion yuan, a 72.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.61 billion yuan in Q3, a 96.4% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company’s revenue for Q1-3 2025 was 145.49 billion yuan, with a Q3 revenue of 50.71 billion yuan [1]. Production and Sales - The company’s copper production in Q3 2025 was 190,000 tons, a 4% increase from the previous quarter, while diamond production decreased by 12% to 27,000 tons [2]. - The company achieved a production completion rate of 80% for copper and 79% for diamonds in the first three quarters [2]. Pricing and Cost Management - The LME copper price increased by 4% to 9,864 USD/ton in Q3 2025, while domestic tungsten prices surged by 40% to 330,000 yuan/ton [2]. - The company successfully reduced operating costs by 0.5% in Q3 2025, with overall recovery rates improving from approximately 88% to 91% [2]. Future Growth Prospects - The company is advancing new projects, including the expansion of TFM and KFM copper production, with an investment of 1.084 billion USD for KFM's second phase, expected to be operational by 2027 [7]. - The company anticipates net profits of 19.5 billion yuan, 23.7 billion yuan, and 25.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.91, 1.10, and 1.17 [7].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's long position in Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum Group Co., Ltd. - H shares decreased from 6.1% to 5.98% on October 23, 2025 [1]