中国银河证券|CGS 全景东盟双周报（2025 年第 5 期） : "黄金签证"助力制度型开放实践 首席经济学家：章俊 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 "黄金签证"助力制度型开放实践 2025年7月4日 核心观点 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 ☎：010-8092 8096 网: zhangjun_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070003 研究助理 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 全景东盟双周报 刘小逸 网: liuxiaoyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 田冀霖 网: tianjilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 风险提示 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 随着美国"对等关税"90天暂缓期进入最后倒计时(7月9日),东南亚地区 ● 超 30%的平均加征税率生效在即。区域内国家正采取"多线并进"的应对方 案:在贸易端加速"窗口期"出口冲刺,马来西亚单月对美出口额增长超四成; 在外交层面稳步推进对华经贸合作并密集开展对美游说与协商,争取在暂缓 期内签订关税协议,其中,越 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of top investment advisors in the A-share market, with significant excess returns compared to the market average, showcasing their capabilities in a volatile market environment [1][3]. Performance Overview - The average return of the top 300 advisors in the stock trading group reached 27.19%, while the top 10 advisors achieved an impressive average return of 47.41% [2][3]. - In June, the three major indices in the A-share market all showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.23%, and the ChiNext Index by 8.02% [3]. ETF Group Performance - The average return for the top 200 advisors in the ETF group was 17.34%, with the top 10 achieving an average return of 30.93% [10][11]. - Compared to the benchmark indices, the top advisors significantly outperformed, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 5.04% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.71% during the same period [11]. Advisor Strategies - Advisors from leading firms like Guangfa Securities and CITIC Securities shared their strategies, focusing on growth stocks and utilizing models like "5+30" to identify high-potential sectors [13][14]. - Risk management strategies were emphasized, including controlling drawdowns and diversifying portfolios to mitigate risks during market fluctuations [15][20]. Institutional Strength - Guangfa Securities, CITIC Securities, and China Galaxy Securities led the rankings in terms of the number of advisors participating in the evaluation, indicating their strong institutional capabilities [23][28]. - The competition among institutions reflects a shift towards a client-centric approach in wealth management, emphasizing the importance of professional capabilities [39]. Future Outlook - Advisors are focusing on sectors with high growth potential, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and aerospace, while also considering macroeconomic factors like Federal Reserve policies [17][22]. - The article suggests that as market volatility becomes the norm, the ability of professional advisors to create value will be crucial for their competitive edge [39].

Core Insights - The China Securities Association conducted a special data survey on the performance of securities firms in promoting financial "five major articles" for 2025, revealing the ranking of firms in terms of personal pension product distribution [1] Summary by Category Securities Firms Ranking - The ranking of securities firms based on the scale of personal pension product distribution (in ten thousand yuan) is as follows: - China International Capital Corporation: 248,276 - Galaxy Securities: 180,620 - GF Securities: 171,836 - China Merchants Securities: 139,135 - Guosen Securities: 137,794 - Industrial Securities: 114,222 - Guotai Junan Securities: 71,553 - CITIC Securities: 53,185 - Huatai Securities: 40,565 - Ping An Securities: 34,479 - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities: 25,942 - Dongfang Securities: 21,668 - Zhongtai Securities: 21,320 - CITIC Jianan Securities: 13,698 - Changjiang Securities: 9,807 - Dongfang Fortune Securities: 4,552 - Guotou Securities: 2,649 - Everbright Securities: 2,315 [1]

科创债新规以来，券商除了自身发行科创债以外，还在积极发挥中介机构作用，帮助各类企业发行科创 债。 "作为宁波轨交科创债牵头主承销商，我们深度挖掘客户亮点，吸引银行机构、保险公司、基金公司等 多家投资机构踊跃参与。"中信建投证券称。 证券时报记者了解到，一方面，券商在承销科创债过程中第一时间响应政策，论证客户的科创属性，并 通过广泛推介询价，充分挖掘市场需求及资源，引入基石投资者；另一方面，券商还积极开展科创债的 做市报价服务，提升科创债市场流动性。 同时，监管对于券商的展业评价也将进一步完善。近日，中国人民银行、中国证监会就支持发行科技创 新债券有关事宜公告称，"建立科技创新债券专项承销评价体系和做市机制，组织做市商为科技创新债 券提供专门做市报价服务，建立承销、做市联动机制。提高科技创新债券承销、做市在承销商、做市商 评价体系中的权重。" 5月8日，中信建投作为牵头主承销商及簿记管理人，助力中国石化集团资本有限公司（下称"石化资 本"）成功发行新一期科技创新公司债券。 "我们与石化资本持续密切关注政策走向，第一时间响应政策号召，最终成功发行了相关支持政策发布 后的首单央企科技创新公司债券。"中信建投证券表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a more dovish stance on interest rate cuts, which may support an increase in gold prices [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed that tariffs are unlikely to significantly raise U.S. inflation, suggesting a potential interest rate cut as early as July [1] - Chairman Powell's remarks in Congress indicated that inflation and employment conditions may lead to earlier interest rate cuts [1] - The recent dovish comments from key Federal Reserve officials have contributed to rising market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The anticipated interest rate cuts could bolster gold prices due to increased market confidence in lower rates [1]

Group 1 - The fund name is Bosera SSE AAA Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, which has been approved for fundraising by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [14][15] - The fund is a bond-type open-ended index fund, with an initial share value of 1.00 RMB [15][22] - The maximum fundraising scale for the fund is set at 3 billion RMB, excluding interest and subscription fees [30][31] Group 2 - The fund will be publicly offered on July 7, 2025, with three subscription methods: online cash subscription, offline cash subscription, and offline bond subscription [6][18] - Investors must have a Shanghai Stock Exchange A-share account or a fund account to subscribe to the fund [32][34] - The fund management company is Bosera Fund Management Co., Ltd., and the custodian is CITIC Bank [1][3] Group 3 - The fund will accept offline bond subscriptions only for bonds that are components of the SSE AAA Technology Innovation Corporate Bond Index [4][28] - The minimum subscription amount for offline cash subscription through the fund management company is 50,000 shares, while for other agents, it is 1,000 shares [3][26] - The fund will allow multiple subscriptions, and there is no upper limit on the cumulative subscription amount [3][26] Group 4 - The fund's subscription fees will be calculated based on the subscription amount and the applicable fee rate [23][24] - Investors can cancel their online cash subscription requests within the same trading day [39] - The fund will undergo a verification process to confirm the total subscription amount and ensure it meets the regulatory requirements [67][68]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年6月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國銀河證券股份有限公司 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 H | | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06881 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,690,984,633 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 3,690,984,633 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,690,984,633 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 3,690,984,633 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | A 股份 ...

Core Insights - The securities industry is experiencing accelerated personnel turnover and structural changes as of the first half of 2025, with a total of 323,900 practitioners, a decrease of 6,870 or 2.12% since the beginning of the year [1] Personnel Changes - The number of general securities business personnel decreased by 5,521, a decline of 2.74% - Securities sponsors saw a reduction of 330, representing a 3.90% drop - Securities brokers experienced a decrease of 2,264, which is an 8.75% decline - Conversely, investment advisors increased by 1,264, marking a growth of 1.55% - Securities analysts saw a net increase of 50, reflecting a growth of 0.89% [1] Firm-Specific Changes - Among 42 listed securities firms, 35 reported a reduction in employee numbers, indicating a high attrition rate of 83.33% - Major firms like Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, CITIC Construction Investment, and GF Securities saw significant reductions in personnel, with decreases of 421, 401, 337, and 305 respectively - Smaller firms, while having lower absolute reductions, exhibited significant percentage declines, with Tianfeng Securities experiencing a reduction of over 5%, specifically 6.36% [1] Detailed Personnel Data - Guotai Haitong: 11,346 to 18,654, an increase of 7,308 or 39.18% - CITIC Securities: 14,216 to 13,815, a decrease of 401 or 2.90% - CITIC Construction Investment: 11,350 to 11,013, a decrease of 337 or 3.06% - China Galaxy: 11,248 to 11,004, a decrease of 244 or 2.22% - GF Securities: 10,790 to 10,485, a decrease of 305 or 2.91% - Guotai Securities: 9,924 to 9,503, a decrease of 421 or 4.43% [2] Investment Advisor Changes - Notable reductions in investment advisors include: - Industrial Securities: decreased by 40 to 1,041, a drop of 3.84% - CITIC Securities: decreased by 32 to 4,431, a drop of 0.72% - Guotai Securities: decreased by 19 to 3,745, a drop of 0.51% - Caida Securities: decreased by 12 to 726, a drop of 1.65% [3] Securities Sponsor Changes - The number of securities sponsors decreased significantly, with notable firms such as: - CITIC Construction Investment: decreased by 53 to 540, a drop of 9.81% - Oriental Securities: decreased by 35 to 208, a drop of 16.83% - CITIC Securities: decreased by 32 to 588, a drop of 5.44% [4] Analyst Changes - A total of 16 listed securities firms had more than 100 analysts, with CICC leading at 340 analysts, followed by Guotai Junan (287) and CITIC Securities (268) - However, firms like CITIC Construction Investment, Zhejiang Securities, CICC, and GF Securities experienced varying degrees of analyst reductions [5]

Core Viewpoint - China Galaxy Securities indicates that based on the value of breeding sows and farming efficiency, pig prices in 2025 may show a downward trend year-on-year, while remaining relatively stable throughout the year. Additionally, profit expectations are exceeded due to declining costs, with a focus on high-quality pig companies that exhibit significant changes in marginal costs and have a good financial position [1]. Group 1 - The analysis suggests a potential year-on-year decline in pig prices for 2025 [1] - The pig market is expected to operate relatively steadily within the year [1] - Profit expectations are anticipated to exceed due to a decrease in costs [1] Group 2 - There is an emphasis on monitoring high-quality pig companies with significant changes in marginal costs [1] - Companies with a good financial position are highlighted as key areas of focus [1]

Company Overview - Tianma Microelectronics Co., Ltd. is a leading innovative technology enterprise providing customized display solutions globally, focusing on small and medium-sized displays [5][6] - The company has a registered capital of approximately RMB 2.46 billion and was established on November 8, 1983 [4][5] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 3,349.43 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.79% from RMB 3,227.13 million in 2023 [7][8] - The total assets as of December 31, 2024, were RMB 8,123.52 million, showing a slight decrease of 0.90% compared to RMB 8,197.63 million in 2023 [7] - The total liabilities were RMB 5,206.21 million, down 1.74% from RMB 5,298.26 million in the previous year [7] Business Segments - The revenue structure for 2024 indicates that display screens and modules accounted for 99.10% of total revenue, amounting to RMB 3,319.17 million, while other revenues contributed 0.90% [6] - The company continues to strengthen its core businesses in mobile displays and automotive displays, while also expanding into IT displays and other value-added services [5][6] Market Position - In 2024, Tianma Microelectronics achieved the highest global shipment volume in several display application markets, including automotive TFT-LCD and HUD displays, as well as LTPS smartphone displays [6] - The company maintained a strong competitive position in flexible AMOLED smartphone displays, ranking third globally in shipment volume [6] Debt and Financing - The company has issued bonds totaling RMB 30 billion, with the first phase of the bond issuance completed in 2020 [3][4] - The bond "21 Tianma 01" has a fixed interest rate of 3.95% and is set to pay interest annually [3][4] Credit Rating - The company's credit rating is assessed as AAA with a stable outlook, indicating strong creditworthiness [4][14] Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was RMB 575.19 million, an increase from RMB 395.77 million in 2023 [8][12] - The company reported a net cash outflow from investing activities of RMB 438.05 million, which is an improvement of 19.30% compared to the previous year [8][12] Debt Servicing - The company has successfully met its debt servicing obligations, with interest payments for "21 Tianma 01" made on time [11][12] - The company's liquidity ratios, including a current ratio of 0.88 and a quick ratio of 0.72, indicate a slight decline compared to the previous year [12]