股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國銀河證券股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年8月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 因本公司於中華人民共和國註冊成立，"法定/註冊股本"之概念不適用於本公司。在上述第I部顯示「法定/註冊股本」的資料即本公司的已發行股本。 FF301 第 2 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06881 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,690,984,633 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 3,690,9 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年7月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | A 股份類別 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 601881 | 說明 | | 於上海證券交易所上市 | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 7,243,417,623 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 7,243,417,623 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 7,243,417,623 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 7,243,417,623 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： RMB 10,934,402,256 備註： 第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The long-term demand growth for polyester filament is relatively stable, with the peak of industry production capacity expansion having passed, leading to a more orderly supply in the future under the self-discipline of leading companies. The current price spread of polyester filament remains at a historically low level, indicating potential for upward correction [1] Supply - The capacity growth of polyester filament is gradually slowing, with the market share of leading companies increasing. The industry saw significant capacity expansion in recent years, particularly among leading enterprises, with the CR4 reaching 60.2% in 2024, an increase of 18.3 percentage points since 2019. The actual capacity is expected to decline for the first time in 2024, indicating a more orderly supply increase in the future [2] Demand - The demand for textiles and apparel is expected to grow steadily, with retail sales of clothing and textiles in China increasing by 3.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. The export volume of polyester filament is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.6% from 2017 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8% in the first half of 2025. The demand is anticipated to strengthen seasonally as the peak season begins in August [3] Cost - The supply and demand outlook for raw materials is weak, with the prices of PX and PTA closely linked to oil prices. The import dependence of PX is expected to decrease from 60.8% in 2018 to 20.0% in 2024, while PTA is shifting from net importer to net exporter. Although oil prices are supported by seasonal demand and geopolitical uncertainties, the expectation of global oil inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter of 2025 may limit upward price movement [4] Profitability - The polyester filament industry has a solid foundation of self-discipline, with leading companies implementing measures such as "production limits to maintain prices" and "coordinated operating rates" since May 2024. The price spread of polyester filament has rebounded from the lows of 2023, demonstrating strong profitability resilience, especially amid complex international trade conditions [5] Investment Targets - Companies to watch include Xin Fengming (603225.SH), Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH), and Hengyi Petrochemical (000703.SZ) [6]

Core Viewpoint - The majority of the 26 listed securities firms have reported significant profit growth for the first half of 2025, with some firms achieving tenfold increases in net profit, indicating a strong recovery in the sector [2][3][5]. Group 1: Performance Highlights - Huaxi Securities expects a net profit of 4.45 billion to 5.75 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 1025.19% to 1353.90% [5][6]. - Guolian Minsheng anticipates a net profit of 11.29 billion RMB, marking an increase of approximately 1183% compared to the previous year [5][6]. - Among the 26 firms, Guotai Haitong stands out with an expected net profit between 152.83 billion and 159.57 billion RMB, significantly higher than its competitors [3][4]. Group 2: Sector Growth Drivers - The overall net profit growth for the securities sector is attributed to increased trading activity, regulatory optimization, and supply-side reforms, which enhance long-term growth potential and investment value [8][9]. - The sector's main revenue sources, including proprietary trading, brokerage, and investment banking, have shown substantial year-on-year increases, contributing to the overall performance [7][8]. - The integration of Guolian Minsheng with Minsheng Securities has also played a role in boosting its financial results, alongside a general recovery in various business lines [6][8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict a dual boost in valuation and profitability for securities stocks, driven by increased market activity and improved operational efficiency within firms [8][9]. - The recent approval of virtual asset trading licenses for firms like Guotai Junan International is expected to further stimulate interest and investment in the securities sector [9].

人民财讯8月1日电，银河证券表示，7月份的PMI一方面展现了我国经济的韧性，生产端在季节的负面 影响下依然保持扩张区间；内需虽然下滑，不过有前期"618"透支的因素，未来在以旧换新以及生育补 贴等扩内需政策的带动下或继续回升。另一方面，外需在长期"抢出口"的影响下已经开始边际下滑；企 业对长期的经营信心仍没有恢复，生产、采购和库存水平均以即期订单为锚。7月中央政治局会议做出 了部署，即巩固经济回升向好态势，并解决经济运行过程中的突出问题。又加速培育新兴支柱产业，不 走债务驱动增长的老路。同时会议提到了"巩固资本市场回稳向好势头"，银河证券仍然看好权益市场， 重点关注政策支持的科技、消费以及"反内卷"领域。 ...

Key Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need to consolidate the economic recovery while addressing prominent issues such as boosting consumption and breaking the cycle of internal competition, which is crucial for promoting domestic and international dual circulation [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of accelerating the cultivation of emerging pillar industries and advancing high-quality urban renewal, avoiding the old path of debt-driven growth [2][3] - The upcoming 14th Central Committee meeting in October will focus on drafting the 15th Five-Year Plan, which is seen as pivotal for achieving the long-term goal of socialist modernization [2][11] Macroeconomic Analysis - The meeting acknowledged the strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with GDP growth reaching 5.3%, and emphasized the need for a bottom-line thinking approach to safeguard employment and livelihoods [3][4] - The macroeconomic policy is set to maintain continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, indicating that supportive policies will continue to be implemented [13][20] - The focus on fiscal policy will be on timely and effective implementation, with an emphasis on increasing the efficiency of fund usage and accelerating the issuance of government bonds [4][19] Real Estate Sector - The importance of urban renewal was reiterated, with a focus on high-quality implementation in line with the Central Urban Work Conference's spirit [26][28] - The transition of urbanization from rapid growth to stable development is expected to enhance the role of urban renewal as a key driver for improving living conditions and urban quality [27][28] - The potential for city renovation projects, particularly in urban villages and dilapidated housing, is anticipated to stimulate housing demand and improve the overall real estate market [27][28] Investment Strategy - The A-share market is expected to experience a gradual rise amid increasing volatility, driven by favorable policies, moderate economic recovery, and the upcoming mid-year performance reports [31][32] - Investment recommendations include focusing on sectors such as technology, consumption, and cyclical stocks, particularly those with strong value propositions [31][32] - The emphasis on new quality productivity and the potential for structural reforms in the economy are seen as key areas for investment opportunities [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights Haida Group's strong performance in H1 2025, with a significant increase in feed sales and revenue growth, leading to a "buy" rating for the company [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Haida Group reported revenue of 58.831 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%, with contributions from feed, agricultural products, raw material trading, and animal health products [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.639 billion yuan, up 24.16% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 2.654 billion yuan, reflecting a 30.57% increase [2]. - In Q2 2025, revenue reached 33.202 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.356 billion yuan, up 7.26% [2]. Feed Sales and Growth - Total feed sales in H1 2025 increased by 25% year-on-year, reaching 14.7 million tons, with internal consumption at 1.05 million tons (up 7%) and external sales at 13.65 million tons (up 26%) [3]. - The feed business generated revenue of 47.139 billion yuan, accounting for 80.13% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 9.79% [3]. - The company aims for a total feed sales target of 51.5 million tons by 2030, with a mid-term goal of 7.2 million tons in overseas markets [3]. Agricultural Products and Livestock - Agricultural product sales reached 9.735 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 15.59% increase, with a gross margin of 20.26% [4]. - The company is adopting a light-asset and risk-controlled breeding model, leading to significant profitability in pig farming [4]. - The company is also focusing on specialized aquaculture, particularly shrimp farming, to enhance competitive advantages [4]. Investment Outlook - Haida Group is positioned as a leading player in the feed industry, with significant growth in production capacity and stable growth across its value chain, including animal health and breeding [5]. - EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 2.96 yuan and 3.43 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19 times and 16 times [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The current market is active, but the home appliance sector lacks imagination and is relatively stagnant, with investment opportunities arising from leading companies' competitive advantages and stable domestic sales patterns [1] - As of July 25, the home appliance index SW increased by 3.07%, but the market value share of the home appliance sector decreased in Q2 2025 due to concerns over the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" policy and declining export data [1][2] Group 2: Policy and Retail Trends - The central government allocated 300 billion yuan for a consumption upgrade program, with 162 billion yuan already distributed, but a policy gap emerged in June, leading to a forecasted slowdown in retail growth for home appliances starting in July [2] - The expected retail growth slowdown is compounded by high base effects from last year's subsidies, with production data indicating varying performance across major appliances [2] Group 3: Product Performance - The air conditioning sector benefited from hot weather, with June sales reaching 12.31 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, although this was below expectations [3] - The average price of air conditioners began to recover post-618 shopping festival, with a 0.7% increase in offline prices and a 15.6% increase in online prices in late July [3] Group 4: Export Dynamics - Home appliance exports have been negatively impacted, with April, May, and June showing year-on-year declines of 2.7%, 8.8%, and 9.0% respectively, reflecting the effects of US-China trade tensions [6] - Companies with production capacity in Southeast Asia are gaining competitive advantages, while others face challenges in shifting production away from the US market [6][7] Group 5: Company-Specific Insights - TCL Electronics is expected to see a significant increase in mid-year profits, with a projected net profit of 950 to 1,080 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45-65% [4] - Ecovacs has exceeded performance expectations in the cleaning appliance sector, while DJI is set to launch a new robot vacuum, although its market performance remains uncertain [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the CSI 300 Index by more than 5% over the next six months [42]. Core Insights - The predetermined interest rate for life insurance products has decreased to 1.99%, which will help insurance companies in prudent pricing and managing interest rate risks [4][11]. - Securities firms are expected to see significant profit growth in their mid-2025 reports, with 23 out of 25 firms forecasting profit increases [4][15]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products has been set at 1.99% as of July 25, 2025, following a meeting by the China Insurance Industry Association [4][11]. - This adjustment aims to guide insurance companies in scientific pricing and enhance risk control related to interest rates [12][11]. Securities - As of July 27, 2025, 23 out of 25 securities firms have forecasted profit increases for their mid-2025 reports, with notable firms like Guotai Junan and China Galaxy leading in expected net profit [4][15]. - Guotai Junan anticipates a net profit of approximately CNY 15.283 billion to CNY 15.957 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 205% to 218% [4][15]. Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a meeting on July 24, 2025, to summarize the first half of the year and outline key tasks for the second half, focusing on stabilizing the market and enhancing regulatory effectiveness [20][21]. Market Performance - The banking, securities, insurance, and fintech indices experienced changes of -2.87%, +4.82%, +1.83%, and +0.01% respectively, with the CSI 300 Index rising by 1.69% during the same period [10][24]. - The average daily trading volume for stock funds reached CNY 23.151 billion, reflecting a 19.5% increase from the previous week [33][35].

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Securities expects the market to maintain a fluctuating trend with a bias towards a high center of gravity, driven by liquidity and market expectations in the absence of established profit signals [1] Market Dynamics - Since the end of June, the financing balance has continued to rise, surpassing 1.9 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [1] - The upward movement in the stock market has led to an expansion of the market's profit-making effect, further promoting opportunities for growth and creating positive feedback [1] Future Outlook - Attention will be focused on the market's support strength near key levels, with expectations of continued fluctuations around a high center of gravity [1]