Core Viewpoint - Under the backdrop of domestic and international monetary policy easing, foreign capital and southbound funds are expected to continue their net inflow trend, leading to a substantial improvement in the profitability of Hong Kong-listed companies, resulting in a market environment of rising profits and valuations [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market largely depend on the domestic macroeconomic environment, with stable macro policies expected to maintain economic resilience and inflation likely to recover from low levels [2] - For 2026, the earnings growth forecast for major indices includes a 9.64% year-on-year increase in the Hang Seng Index, a 34.63% increase in the Hang Seng Tech Index, and a 9.9% increase in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [2] Group 2: Capital Flow - As of December 19, 2025, the market value of Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings accounted for approximately 13.1%, while international intermediaries held about 40.1%, indicating a net increase in domestic capital holdings compared to foreign capital [3] - From the beginning of the year to December 19, 2025, the cumulative net inflow into the Hong Kong stock market via Stock Connect reached HKD 1.4 trillion, a 74% year-on-year increase [3] - Cumulative net inflow from foreign capital into the Hong Kong market from early 2025 to December 17, 2025, was USD 17.689 billion, with expectations of a continued low interest rate environment encouraging further inflows [3] Group 3: Market Performance - As of December 19, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Tech Index was 23.1 times, an 11.91% increase from the end of 2024, indicating significant room for valuation recovery compared to historical highs [5] - The Hang Seng Tech Index's earnings per share increased by 9.58% compared to the end of the previous year, and its valuation is notably lower than other major global tech indices [5] Group 4: Investment Themes - The technology innovation theme is expected to be a major investment focus, with significant valuation recovery potential for the Hang Seng Tech Index and strong performance anticipated from leading companies [6] - In the context of supply-side reform, sectors such as steel, building materials, electrical equipment, and paper are expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics and rising profit margins [6] - Under the strategy of expanding domestic demand, sectors with growth potential and historically low valuations, particularly in service consumption and new consumption models, are expected to perform well [6]

智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，展望未来，在多重积极因素共振下，港股市场交投活跃 度有望持续上升，预计港股整体震荡上行。配置方面，建议关注以下板块：（1）科技板块仍是中长期 投资主线，在产业链涨价、并购重组、国产化替代等多重利好共振下，有望震荡上行。（2）消费板块 有望持续受益于政策支持，且当前估值处于相对低位，中长期上涨空间较大，后续需关注政策落地力度 及消费数据改善情况。 港股估值与风险偏好方面 （1）截至2026年1月2日，恒生指数的市盈率、市净率分别为12.09倍、1.23倍，分别较上周五上涨 2.36%、2.36%，分别处于2010年以来79%、56%分位数水平。恒生科技指数的市盈率、市净率分别为 23.8倍、3.15倍，分别处于2010年以来 36%、66%分位数水平。（2）10年期美国国债到期收益率较上周 五上行5个基点至4.19%，港股恒生指数的风险溢价率为4.08%，为3年滚动均值负1.82倍标准差，处于 2010年以来4%分位。10年期中国国债到期收益率较上周五上行0.97个基点至1.8473%，从而港股恒生指 数的风险溢价率为6.42%，为均值（3年滚动）负1.71倍标准差， ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|证券Ⅱ [Table_Title] 证券Ⅱ行业 公募销售费改平稳落地，框架完善兼顾市场关切 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-04 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 12/25 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 [分析师： Table_Author]陈福 SAC 执证号：S0260517050001 SFC CE No. BOB667 0755-82535901 chenfu@gf.com.cn 分析师： 严漪澜 SAC 执证号：S0260524070005 0755-82544248 yanyilan@gf.com.cn 请注意，严漪澜并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | DocReport] [Table_ 相关研究： | | | --- | --- | | 证券行业 2026 年投资策略: | 2025-12-04 | | 本 ...

来源：中国银河策略 核心观点 本周港股行情表现：（1）本周（2025年12月29日至2026年1月2日），全球主要股指多数上涨。其中， 恒生指数涨2.01%，恒生科技指数涨4.31%，恒生中国企业指数涨2.85%。（2）港股行业层面：一级行 业中，本周7个行业上涨，4个行业下跌。其中，信息技术、能源、材料行业指数分别上涨4.54%、 3.97%、2.98%；日常消费、公用事业、医疗保健行业指数跌幅居前，分别下跌2.25%、1.60%、0.59%。 从二级行业来看，本周半导体、国防军工、石油石化、软件服务、造纸与包装行业指数涨幅居前，家庭 用品、耐用消费品、消费者服务、日常消费零售、纺织服装行业指数跌幅居前。 本周港股流动性：（1）本周港交所日均成交额1711.9亿港元，较上周增加312.64亿港元。日均沽空金额 为199.27亿港元，较上周增加29.61亿港元；沽空金额占成交额比例的日均值为11.78%，较上周下降0.22 个百分点。（2）本周南向资金累计净流出38.1亿港元，较上周净流入额减少63.71亿港元。 风险提示 国内政策力度及效果不及预期风险；海外降息不及预期风险；市场情绪不稳定风险。 正文 一、 ...

中国银河证券研究表示，中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。全国财政工作会议 对2026年财政政策进行了进一步部署。当前，国内经济底层逻辑正在从土地财政全面转向因地制宜发展 新质生产力，这个过程中财政政策的重要性愈发显现。从2023年内增发国债到2024年发行超长期特别国 债再到2025年提高狭义赤字率，财政政策在新旧动能转换过程中发挥了重要作用。展望2026年，中国银 河证券认为财政政策呈现以下特征：一是扩大支出盘子，保持必要支出强度，预计广义赤字率与2025年 基本持平；二是优化支出方向，尤其加大对于内需和科技的支持力度，灵活运用超长期特别国债和财政 贴息等工具；三是财政靠前发力，保持"早发快用"节奏，力争"十五五"元年取得良好开局。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The mission of the securities industry is to strengthen overseas layout, enhance competitiveness in global financial markets, and build a world-class investment bank, which has become an inevitable choice for Chinese securities firms due to fluctuations in domestic business income and the growing demand for cross-border investment and financing [1][3]. Group 1: Challenges in Overseas Expansion - Chinese securities firms have been expanding internationally for over 30 years, but they now face significant challenges due to stricter capital flow regulations and increased compliance risks amid global economic turmoil [2][3]. - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by frequent adjustments in U.S. trade and economic policies, has led to market volatility, posing challenges to the development of overseas businesses for Chinese securities firms [3]. - Structural challenges, including geopolitical conflicts and slowing global economic growth, are reshaping the competitive landscape of global financial markets, testing the internationalization strategies of Chinese securities firms [3]. Group 2: Opportunities for Growth - Despite challenges, there are opportunities for Chinese securities firms, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the firm aims to enhance its comprehensive financial service capabilities and international competitiveness [4][6]. - The firm emphasizes the importance of cooperation with ASEAN countries, highlighting the strong willingness of various partners to engage in bilateral investment and capital flow [5][6]. Group 3: Constraints on Overseas Subsidiaries - The operational capabilities of overseas subsidiaries of Chinese securities firms are constrained by factors such as capital, management, talent, and culture [2][7]. - Capital constraints are significant, as the capital scale of Chinese securities firms is considerably lower than that of international peers, affecting their ability to develop capital business and electronic trading platforms [7]. - Management challenges arise from differences in management philosophies and decision-making processes between headquarters and local teams, impacting operational efficiency [7][8]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - To navigate internationalization successfully, firms should leverage their strengths, focus on core regions and businesses, and enhance their service capabilities for Chinese enterprises going abroad [9]. - Maintaining strict compliance with risk management and understanding financial market risk hedging tools is crucial for managing market, credit, and liquidity risks [9]. - Strengthening cultural integration and business collaboration between domestic and overseas teams is essential for optimizing profit models and improving market adaptability [9].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國銀河證券股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年12月31日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06881 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,690,984,633 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 3,690,984,633 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,690,984,633 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 3,690,984,633 | | 2 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年12月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國銀河證券股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年12月31日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： RMB 10,934,402,256 備註： 第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 因本公司於中華人民共和國註冊成立，"法定/註冊股本"之概念不適用於本公司。在上述第I部顯示「法定/註冊股本」的資料即本公司的已發行股本。 FF301 第 2 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06881 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,6 ...

Group 1 - The steel industry has shown significant improvement in profitability, with effective cost control measures in place [1] - The demand side is adjusting due to real estate sector changes, while new infrastructure and renewable energy are supporting the demand for manufacturing steel [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a plan for the steel industry, targeting an average annual value-added growth of around 4% from 2025 to 2026 [1] Group 2 - In the first three quarters of 2025, the steel sector achieved a net profit of 20.147 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year turnaround [2] - The average sales gross margin for the industry increased to 12.35%, up 1.33 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1][2] - The third quarter of 2025 saw the steel sector achieve a net profit of 8.716 billion yuan, marking a 12.16% quarter-on-quarter increase and a significant year-on-year recovery [2] Group 3 - Leading steel companies have demonstrated stable revenue and a faster recovery in profitability, with Shougang Corporation reporting a net profit increase of 368.13% year-on-year [3] - The profitability improvement is broadening, with several companies in the sector achieving a turnaround in net profit [3] - Fangda Special Steel reported a sales gross margin of 10.44% and a net profit margin of 5.97%, highlighting the profitability advantages of high-end special steel products [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the successful completion of the first counter bond transaction between China and Singapore, marking a significant step in cross-border financial connectivity and the opening of the capital market [1][2] - China Galaxy Securities' overseas subsidiary, Galaxy Overseas, has become the first institution to participate in the newly established counter bond market between China and Singapore, showcasing its execution and innovation capabilities [1] - The transaction is part of a broader initiative to enhance financial cooperation between China and Singapore, as outlined in the 2025 financial cooperation document, which emphasizes the interconnectivity of the bond markets [1][2] Group 2 - Bank of China, as the only authorized Chinese bank for the counter bond project, has created an efficient channel for qualified foreign investors to access the Chinese interbank bond market, providing comprehensive services including account opening, trading, registration, and settlement [2] - The initiative aligns with China's Belt and Road strategy, promoting cross-border financial innovation and market connectivity, while supporting the internationalization of the Renminbi [2] - China Galaxy Securities aims to leverage its international presence to actively participate in Belt and Road projects, contributing to the dual opening of financial markets and the establishment of a higher-level open economy [2]