Investment Rating - The report maintains a NEUTRAL rating for NIO Inc. with a current price of HK$46.82 and a target price of HK$50.02 [2][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant rebound in gross margin and a notable narrowing of losses in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching Rmb21.79 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase [4][12]. - Vehicle sales contributed Rmb19.20 billion, reflecting a 15% year-over-year growth, with quarterly deliveries hitting a record high of 87,000 units, up 41% year-over-year [4][12]. - The gross margin improved to 13.9%, supported by cost optimization and a higher contribution from premium-margin models [4][12]. - For Q4 2025, the company expects revenue between Rmb32.76 billion and Rmb34.04 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 66% to 73% [5][13]. - The company has outlined a roadmap for 2026, targeting a monthly delivery peak of 50,000 units and plans to launch three new large-sized models [6][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 revenue was Rmb21.79 billion, with a gross margin of 13.9% and a non-GAAP net loss of Rmb2.74 billion, narrowing by 38% year-over-year [4][12]. - The company anticipates a strong product cycle with five new SUVs launching in 2026, projecting revenues of Rmb84.2 billion, Rmb122.4 billion, and Rmb146.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][15]. - The report highlights that achieving profitability in Q4 requires stringent conditions, including a blended gross margin of at least 17% and monthly deliveries exceeding 60,000 units [5][13]. Market Position and Strategy - NIO is focusing on global expansion, with plans to introduce the Firefly model as a key export vehicle, followed by ONVO and NIO brands [6][14]. - The company is also advancing its in-house semiconductor strategy and exploring external commercialization of its ADAS chip platform [6][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining competitive pricing and product offerings in response to market demand fluctuations due to subsidy changes [5][13].

Market Performance - US stock market opened high and closed higher, with all three major indices rising for four consecutive days [1] - Dow Jones increased by 0.67% to 47,427.12 points, S&P 500 rose by 0.69% to 6,812.61 points, and Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.82% to 23,214.69 points [1] - Market volatility eased, with the S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) dropping approximately 35% over four days, marking the largest decline since mid-April [1] Technology Sector - Mixed performance among large tech stocks: Nvidia up 1.37%, Apple up 0.21%, Google C down 1.04%, Microsoft up 1.78%, Amazon down 0.22%, Broadcom up 3.26%, Meta down 0.41%, and Tesla up 1.71% [1] - Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 2.76%, with all 30 component stocks closing higher [1] - Notable gains in semiconductor stocks: Teradyne up 6.98%, Marvell Technology up 5.14%, AMD up 3.93%, ASML up 3.76%, and Micron Technology up 2.55% [1] Chinese Stocks - Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index slightly declined by 0.03% [2] - Most popular Chinese stocks saw gains: Vipshop up 2.54%, Pinduoduo up 1.58%, JD.com up 0.96%, Li Auto up 0.6%, New Oriental up 0.39%, and Alibaba up 0.38% [2] - Declines were noted in some Chinese stocks: Hesai down 7.37%, Tencent Music down 2.33%, Xpeng down 2.22%, Baidu down 1.31%, and NIO down 0.73% [3]

Group 1 - The author has been involved in the markets since elementary school and has a strong educational background in Finance and Accounting, with a focus on Investments and Financial Analysis [1] - The author has experience managing investment portfolios, including a long/short equity portfolio and two long-only portfolios as part of a student investment group [1] - The author has completed internships at a large bank and in managing a university endowment, indicating practical experience in investment management [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting due diligence before making any investment decisions and suggests consulting with financial advisers [3] - It is noted that past performance does not guarantee future results, highlighting the inherent uncertainties in investment [4] - The article clarifies that the views expressed may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole, indicating a diversity of opinions among contributors [4]

Core Insights - The report from CICC indicates that NIO's overall performance in Q3 surpassed industry expectations, with multiple key metrics aligning with market forecasts, showcasing the effectiveness of recent reforms and entering a strong product cycle [1] - Looking ahead to Q4, CICC is optimistic about NIO's continued positive operational momentum, with monthly delivery volumes expected to exceed previous highs [1] Company Performance - NIO's Q3 financial report revealed historic breakthroughs in delivery volumes, revenue capabilities, and overall gross margin [1] - The revenue guidance for Q4 is projected to reach between 32.76 billion to 34.04 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 66.3% to 72.8%, positioning NIO as a leader among new energy vehicle companies [1] Product Strategy - NIO currently has three clearly defined brands, and its product matrix is becoming increasingly comprehensive [1] - The company plans to launch three SUV models, ES9, ES7, and L80, by 2026 to further strengthen its competitiveness in the pure electric large vehicle segment [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. retail sales fell by 0.2% in September, primarily due to the expiration of electric vehicle tax incentives and a decline in auto sales, which may support a rate cut in December [1] - Nvidia's stock plummeted due to the rise of Google's TPU, breaking its uniqueness in the market. AMD also saw a decline, losing its position as a viable alternative to Nvidia. Nvidia reassured the market of its lead over TPU, but the loss of monopoly status could significantly reduce its premium [1] - Atour's Q3 revenue reached 2.63 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%, with a net profit of 490 million, up 27%. The average room revenue was 371.3 yuan, recovering to 97.8% of the same period last year, and the company raised its full-year revenue guidance. Compared to peers, Atour's performance stands out as Jinjiang's revenue declined, while Junting and Huazhu grew by 4% and 8%, respectively [1] Group 2 - NIO reported a Q3 loss of 2.74 billion, with CEO Li Bin stating that the company would achieve profitability in the next quarter, although the market remains skeptical, leading to a continued decline in stock price [2]

Key Takeaways NIO posted a Q3 loss of 21 cents per ADS with revenues rising 15.1% year over year.Deliveries hit 87,071 vehicles, boosting sales and lifting vehicle and gross margins.NIO sees Q4 deliveries of 120,000-125,000 and revenues of $4.60B-$4.78B.NIO Inc. (NIO) reported a loss per American Depositary Share (ADS) of 21 cents in the third quarter of 2025, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 24 cents. The company had incurred a loss of 36 cents in the year-ago quarter.This China-base ...

Core Viewpoint - NIO's Q3 2025 financial report shows significant improvement in performance, with revenue and gross margin steadily increasing, and losses narrowing. The founder and chairman expressed confidence in achieving profitability in Q4, supported by high-margin vehicle models [1][4]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 21.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [3] - Gross margin was 13.9%, up nearly 4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with vehicle gross margin at 14.7%, the highest in nearly three years [3] - Q3 net loss was 3.4805 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.2% year-on-year and 30.3% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Adjusted net loss (non-GAAP) was 2.7351 billion yuan, down 38% year-on-year and 33.7% quarter-on-quarter [3] Delivery and Sales - In Q3, NIO delivered 87,071 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 40.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.8% [3] - The average revenue per vehicle was approximately 220,500 yuan based on 19.2 billion yuan in automotive sales [3] - Q4 delivery guidance is set between 120,000 and 125,000 vehicles, a downward adjustment from the previous target of 150,000 vehicles [5] Cost Management and Efficiency - Sales, general, and administrative expenses for Q3 were 4.1847 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [3] - R&D expenses decreased by 28% year-on-year and 20.5% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to organizational optimization and cyclical adjustments in design and development costs [3] - The company aims to reduce sales, general, and administrative expenses to 10% of total revenue [6] Future Outlook - NIO plans to launch three large vehicles next year, relying on high-margin models to drive growth [6] - The target for Q4 is to achieve an 18% vehicle gross margin, with the new ES8 model expected to exceed a 20% gross margin [6] - The company is focusing on the high-end electric vehicle market and aims to capture market share in regions with significant growth potential [6][7] Strategic Challenges - The key challenge for NIO is balancing sales, production capacity, and strategy to ensure long-term sustainable development [7] - The company has a cash reserve of 36.7 billion yuan, which provides a buffer for strategic adjustments, but needs to accelerate the profitability of value-added services like battery swapping [7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley expresses a positive outlook on NIO's profitability prospects, expecting the company to achieve profitability in Q4 of this year driven by high-priced new model deliveries, ongoing cost control, and improved operational efficiency [1] Group 1: Profitability Outlook - NIO is anticipated to reach a profitability inflection point by 2026, supported by the launch of new models, strict cost management, and enhanced operational capabilities [1] - The current stock price adjustment presents a favorable entry point for investors, with the next key observation being the market response to new models during the April 2026 Beijing Auto Show [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - NIO's Q3 2025 financial report indicates record highs in delivery volume, revenue capacity, and overall gross margin [1] - The revenue guidance for Q4 is projected to be between 32.76 billion and 34.04 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 66.3% to 72.8%, setting a new record and leading among new car manufacturers [1]

NIO Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: NIO Inc. - **Industry**: Smart Electric Vehicles (EVs) Key Highlights Deliveries and Growth - NIO achieved record deliveries in Q3 2025, delivering **87,071 smart EVs**, a **40.8% year-over-year increase** [2][4] - October 2025 saw a **92.6% year-over-year increase** with **40,397 units** delivered, marking three consecutive months of record deliveries [2][4] - Q4 2025 deliveries are projected to reach between **120,000 to 125,000 vehicles**, representing a **65.1% to 72% year-over-year increase** [2][5] Financial Performance - Total revenues in Q3 2025 reached **RMB 21.8 billion**, a **60.7% year-over-year increase** [3][19] - Vehicle gross margin rose to **14.7%**, with overall gross margin at **13.9%**, the highest in nearly three years [2][6] - Non-GAAP operating loss narrowed by over **30% quarter-over-quarter**, with both operating and free cash flow turning positive [2][6][24] Product Launches and Demand - NIO launched several new products, including the **Umbo L90** and the all-new **ES8**, both experiencing strong demand [2][7] - The **ES6 SUV** reached a milestone of **300,000 cumulative deliveries** in October [2][10] - The **Umbo L90** delivered over **33,000 units** in three months, leading the large battery electric SUV segment [2][8] Strategic Commitments - NIO is committed to a battery electric vehicle roadmap featuring chargeable, swappable, and upgradable batteries [2][9] - The Omni brand has led the high-end small electric vehicle market in sales volume, expanding into global markets [2][11] - Advancements in smart driving technology include the introduction of the **new world model (NWM)**, featuring a closed-loop training system [2][12] Market Position and Future Outlook - NIO completed a **$1.16 billion equity financing**, strengthening its balance sheet for long-term R&D and user services [3][16] - The company anticipates a vehicle gross margin of around **18%** in Q4 2025, driven by strong demand for high-margin products like the ES8 [26][27] - NIO aims for full-year profitability on a non-GAAP basis in 2026, supported by increasing BEV penetration in the premium segment [35][40] Operational Efficiency - R&D expenses were **RMB 2.4 billion**, reflecting a decrease of **20-28% year-over-year** due to organizational optimization [22] - Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses were **RMB 4.2 billion**, up **1.8% year-over-year** [22] Global Expansion Plans - NIO is expanding its global market presence, transitioning from a direct-to-customer model to a partnership-based approach [49] - The **Firefly** product will lead global market entry, with plans to introduce additional models in various regions [49][50] Market Trends - The overall penetration rate for new energy vehicles reached **55%** in Q3 2025, with BEV sales growing by **26% year-over-year** [37] - NIO's strategy includes leveraging new models and enhancing operational efficiencies to capture market share in the growing BEV segment [36][40] Conclusion NIO's strong performance in Q3 2025, marked by record deliveries and improved financial metrics, positions the company favorably for future growth. The commitment to innovation, strategic product launches, and global expansion efforts are expected to drive continued success in the competitive smart EV market.

25 November 2025 | 7:49PM CST Equity Research NIO Inc. (NIO): 3Q25 First Take: Operating profit beat on higher vehicle margin, 4Q25 volume/revenue guidance below expectation Exhibit 1: Nio 3Q25 result summary Nio reported 3Q25 result with total revenue slightly below expectation but operating profit beat, mainly attributed to higher vehicle gross margin from greater-than-expected BOM cost reduction. However, 4Q25 volume and revenue guidance was below expectation, with vehicle sales volume of 120k-125k units ...