Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO, with a target price raised to $7.0, representing a potential upside of 24% [2][5][12]. Core Insights - NIO is expected to achieve sales of 230,000 electric vehicles this year, driven by the delivery of high-margin "7778" models and the introduction of new sub-brands and models [2][3]. - The company anticipates significant growth in total vehicle sales due to the upcoming launch of the L60 model and other new models, which will enhance its product matrix and pricing coverage [2][3]. - NIO's gross margin improved to 12.2% in Q2 2024, exceeding previous expectations, and is projected to reach 15% in Q4 2024 [2][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from RMB 49,269 million in 2022 to RMB 133,560 million by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36% [4][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 10.4% in 2022 to 14.4% in 2026, reflecting ongoing cost optimization [4][10]. - The net loss is projected to decrease from RMB 14,559 million in 2022 to RMB 8,036 million by 2026, indicating a trend towards improved profitability [4][10]. Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a sales multiple of 1.2x for automotive sales and 3.8x for other sales, leading to a target price of $7.0 for NIO's U.S. shares [3][12]. - The target price corresponds to a price-to-sales ratio of 1.4x for 2024 and 0.9x for 2025, suggesting an attractive valuation [2][3]. Sales and Performance Metrics - In Q2 2024, NIO reported revenue of RMB 17,446 million, a 99% year-over-year increase, with a gross profit of RMB 1,689 million, reflecting a gross margin of 9.7% [9][10]. - Vehicle sales reached 57,373 units in Q2 2024, marking a 144% increase compared to the same quarter last year [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO Inc. with a target price of HKD 59.88, indicating a potential upside of 75.6% from the current price of HKD 34.10 [2][6]. Core Insights - NIO's automotive gross margin exceeded expectations, signaling a turning point for the company. The second quarter revenue was RMB 17.5 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 98.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 76.1%, slightly above expectations due to higher-than-expected sales volume. The automotive gross margin was 12.2%, higher than the anticipated 10-11% due to renegotiated supplier contracts leading to lower unit costs and a slight reduction in discounts and promotions [1][2][3]. - NIO expects third-quarter vehicle deliveries to be between 61,000 and 63,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 10.0% to 13.7%. Total revenue is projected to be between RMB 19.11 billion and RMB 19.67 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of about 0.2% to 3.2%, both figures being historical highs for the company [1][3]. - The report anticipates a sequential improvement in automotive gross margins in the second half of the year, driven by increased sales and reduced promotions. The launch of the new model, the ET5, is expected to further support sales growth and margin improvement [1][2]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for NIO are as follows: RMB 55.6 billion in 2023, RMB 62.8 billion in 2024, and RMB 86.4 billion in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.9%, 13.0%, and 37.5% respectively [3][7]. - The net loss is projected to decrease from RMB 20.8 billion in 2023 to RMB 16.9 billion in 2024, indicating a potential improvement in profitability over the next few years [3][7]. - The report highlights that the automotive gross margin is expected to improve further, with the new model, the L60, set to launch at a pre-sale price of RMB 219,900, which is anticipated to be the only option under RMB 200,000 for a swappable battery vehicle [1][2].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - NIO's 2024Q2 performance exceeded expectations with revenue reaching 17.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 76.1% [3] - Vehicle sales revenue in Q2 was 15.68 billion yuan, up 118.2% year-on-year and 87.1% quarter-on-quarter [3] - Gross margin improved to 9.7% in Q2, up 8.7 percentage points year-on-year and 4.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] - Operating loss in Q2 was 5.21 billion yuan, with adjusted net loss (non-GAAP) of 4.54 billion yuan, showing a reduction in losses compared to previous quarters [3] - NIO delivered 57,000 vehicles in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 143.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 90.9% [3] - The company expects Q3 vehicle deliveries to reach 61,000-63,000 units, potentially setting a new historical high [3] - NIO's new brand, Ledao, is expected to drive sales growth, with its first model L60 set to launch on September 19, 2024 [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 49.27 billion yuan in 2022 to 125.58 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.85% from 2024 to 2026 [2] - Net loss attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from -18.24 billion yuan in 2024 to -1.99 billion yuan in 2026 [2] - EPS is forecasted to improve from -8.80 yuan in 2024 to -0.96 yuan in 2026 [2] - Gross margin is expected to increase from 10.94% in 2024 to 18.00% in 2026 [8] Market Data - Closing price as of the report date was 38.55 HKD [5] - The stock's 52-week range was between 28.60 HKD and 85.25 HKD [5] - Market capitalization stood at 74.21 billion HKD [5] - Price-to-book ratio was 4.97x [5] Financial Ratios - ROIC is expected to improve from -35.53% in 2024 to -3.20% in 2026 [8] - ROE is projected to improve from -161.26% in 2024 to -23.44% in 2026 [8] - Net profit margin is forecasted to improve from -23.96% in 2024 to -1.59% in 2026 [8] - Asset-liability ratio is expected to remain high, ranging from 86.76% in 2024 to 91.76% in 2026 [8] New Brand Launch - Ledao, NIO's new brand targeting the mainstream family market, was officially launched on May 15, 2024 [4] - The first model, L60, is positioned as a mid-size SUV with key selling points including safety, space, comfort, charging system, driving experience, and intelligent driving features [4] - The L60 is expected to be a potential hit product, contributing significantly to NIO's sales growth [4]

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 09 09 年 月 日 蔚来-SW（09866.HK） 乐道即将上市，产品矩阵逐步完善 蔚来 Q2 业绩超预期、Q3 指引超预期。公司 Q2 交付 57373 辆车，5-6 月销量超过 2 万辆， 带动公司实现 174 亿人民币收入，同比大幅增长 99%。其中，车辆销售/其他销售收入分别 为 157/18 亿，同比增长 118%/11%。毛利率超出预期，Q2 公司整体毛利率为 9.7%（汽车 销售/其他销售的毛利率分别为 12.2%/-12.3%），同比/环比提升 8.7/4.8pct，主要受益于单 位物料成本下降、售后服务效率的提升。受益于规模经济，研发费用率和 SG&A 费用率均有 所收窄，Q2 GAAP 净亏损 51 亿人民币，non-GAAP 净亏损 45 亿，净亏损率 26%，同比/环 比改善 36/23pct，超出预期。展望 Q3，公司 7-8 月均实现超 2 万月销量，指引 Q3 交付 6.1- 6.3 万辆，同比增长 10%-13.7%，收入 191.09-196.69 亿元。我们采用收入和销量指引的中 值测算，在 Q3 较低价 ...

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q2 2024 reached RMB 17.446 billion (USD 2.4006 billion), an increase of 98.9% year-over-year and 76.1% quarter-over-quarter[2]. - Vehicle deliveries in Q2 2024 amounted to 57,373 units, representing a growth of 143.9% year-over-year and 90.9% quarter-over-quarter[3]. - The automotive sales revenue for Q2 2024 was RMB 15.6796 billion (USD 2.1576 billion), up 118.2% year-over-year and 87.1% quarter-over-quarter[6]. - Gross profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 1.6887 billion (USD 0.2324 billion), a significant increase of 1,841.0% year-over-year and 246.3% quarter-over-quarter[5]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 improved to 9.7%, compared to 1.0% in Q2 2023 and 4.9% in Q1 2024[5]. - Operating loss for Q2 2024 was RMB 5.2093 billion (USD 0.7168 billion), a decrease of 14.2% year-over-year and 3.4% quarter-over-quarter[5]. - Net loss for Q2 2024 was 5.046 billion RMB (694.4 million USD), down 16.7% year-over-year and 2.7% quarter-over-quarter[15]. - Total revenue for Q3 2024 is projected to be between 19.109 billion RMB (2.630 billion USD) and 19.669 billion RMB (2.707 billion USD), reflecting a year-over-year growth of approximately 0.2% to 3.2%[17]. - Total revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2024, reached RMB 27,354,604, an increase from RMB 19,448,206 for the same period in 2023, representing a growth of approximately 40%[30]. - The net loss for the six months ending June 30, 2024, was RMB 10,230,560, a slight improvement from RMB 10,795,284 in the same period of 2023, reflecting a reduction of approximately 5%[31]. - The total comprehensive loss for the six months ending June 30, 2024, was RMB 10,133,609, compared to RMB 10,522,417 for the same period in 2023, reflecting a decrease of approximately 4%[31]. Vehicle Deliveries and Market Position - In Q2 2024, NIO delivered a record 57,373 high-end smart electric vehicles, capturing over 40% market share in China's pure electric vehicle market priced above 300,000 RMB[10]. - Cumulative vehicle deliveries reached 577,694 units as of August 31, 2024, with July and August deliveries of 20,498 and 20,176 units respectively[7]. - For Q3 2024, NIO expects vehicle deliveries between 61,000 and 63,000 units, representing a year-over-year growth of approximately 10.0% to 13.7%[17]. Research and Development - R&D expenses for Q2 2024 were 3.2185 billion RMB (442.9 million USD), a decrease of 3.8% year-over-year but an increase of 12.4% quarter-over-quarter[13]. - Research and development expenses for the six months ending June 30, 2024, were RMB 6,082,738, a decrease from RMB 6,420,183 in the previous year, indicating a reduction of about 5%[30]. - The company reported a significant increase in research and development expenses compared to the previous period, indicating a focus on new product development[35]. Cash and Liquidity - As of June 30, 2024, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term deposits totaled RMB 41.6 billion (USD 5.7 billion)[5]. - Cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 24,652,488 thousand, down from RMB 32,935,111 thousand as of December 31, 2023, indicating a liquidity decrease[25]. - The total current assets decreased to RMB 55,511,925 thousand as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 70,380,233 thousand as of December 31, 2023, a decline of 21.2%[25]. Corporate Governance and Structure - The Nomination and ESG Committee, composed entirely of independent directors, has been established in compliance with the Hong Kong Listing Rules since March 10, 2022[59]. - The committee has confirmed that the company has taken sufficient governance measures to manage potential conflicts of interest between the group and different voting rights beneficiaries[60]. - The company has committed to ensuring that any transactions with different voting rights beneficiaries are disclosed and handled according to applicable regulations[60]. - The company maintains its secondary listing status on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange during the relevant period, which is defined as the time from the first listing date to the day before the delisting[61]. Future Outlook and Strategy - NIO's future outlook includes the development of attractive vehicles and the feasibility of its battery-as-a-service (BaaS) model[21]. - The company is actively pursuing market expansion and new technology development to enhance its competitive position in the industry[36]. - The company is focusing on improving its operational efficiency to reduce losses and enhance profitability in the upcoming quarters[40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a strong delivery volume with Q1 2024 achieving 30,053 units delivered, a year-on-year decrease of 3%, and revenue of 9.909 billion yuan, down 7.2% year-on-year. The Q1 gross margin was 4.9%, with an automotive gross margin of 9.2%, reflecting a decline due to increased discounts during product transitions [1]. - The company has provided strong guidance for Q2 2024, expecting sales between 54,000 to 56,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 130% to 138%, and revenue guidance of 16.587 to 17.135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89% to 95% [1]. - The company has adjusted its Battery as a Service (BaaS) plan, which has led to an 80% penetration rate, significantly boosting sales. Orders exceeded expectations, with May deliveries reaching 20,544 units, nearly at the monthly production capacity limit [1]. - The company is set to launch the L60 model under the new brand, with plans for a mid-large SUV next year, and aims for a long-term gross margin of over 15% for the Lada brand [1]. - The company has established partnerships for battery swapping with several brands and aims to have over 1,000 fourth-generation stations by the end of the year [1]. Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the company is projected to sell approximately 210,000, 330,000, and 440,000 vehicles, with total revenues reaching 63.4 billion, 88 billion, and 114.4 billion yuan respectively. The non-GAAP net profit margins are expected to be around -30%, -18%, and -13% [1][4]. - The report indicates a target market capitalization of approximately 13.1 billion USD (102.4 billion HKD), corresponding to about 1.5 times the estimated 2024 price-to-sales ratio [1].

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 蔚来-SW（09866.HK） 2024 一季报点评：业绩略低预期，品牌矩阵 2024年 06月 14日 完善 证券分析师 曾朵红 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 [ 盈Ta 利bl 预e_ 测EP 与S] 估 值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 黄细里 营业总收入（百万元） 49269 55618 76116 115668 125584 执业证书：S0600520010001 同比(%) 36.34 12.89 36.85 51.96 8.57 021-60199793 归母净利润（百万元） (14559) (21147) (18237) (8806) (1994) huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 同比(%) - - - - - 研究助理 孟璐 EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） (7.02) (10.20) (8.80) (4.25) (0.96) 执业证书：S0600122080033 P/E（现价&最新摊薄） - - - - - men ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 汽车 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年6月7日 港元41.60 港元59.88 +43.9% 蔚来汽车 (9866 HK) 1 季度业绩低于预期，但 2 季度指引强劲，维持买入  1季度收入略低于预期，但2季度指引强劲。2024年1 季度，蔚来汽车营的 个股评级 收 99 亿元（人民币，下同），同比降 7.2%，较我们/市场预期低约 5%； 买入 汽车交付量 30,053 辆，同比降3.2%；毛利率为 4.9%，其中汽车毛利率为 9.2%，较我们预期略低，环比下降2.7百分点，主要原因是产品转型期间 1年股价表现 加大了促销力度，导致平均销售价格下降，以及产品组合的变化。销售/ 9866 HK 研发费用同比分别下降 6.9%/上升22.5%，渠道扩张令销售费用增长较预 120% MSCI中国指数 期高。1季度公司净亏损 51.9 亿元，同比扩大9.4%，亏损高于我们/市场 100% 80% 预期约15%。蔚来持有现金及现金等价物453 亿元。 60% 40% 20%  蔚来2024年2季度交付指引为5.4万辆至5.6万辆，同比增长129.6%至 0% -20% 138.1%；营 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 根據不同投票權架構，我們的股本包括A類普通股及C類普通股。對於提呈我們股東大會的任 何決議案，A類普通股持有人每股可投一票，而C類普通股持有人則每股可投八票，惟法律或 《香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則》或我們的組織章程大綱及細則另行規定者除外。股東 及有意投資者務請留意投資不同投票權架構公司的潛在風險。我們的美國存託股（每股美國存 託股代表一股A類普通股）於美國紐約證券交易所上市，股份代號為NIO。 蔚來集團 （於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） （股份代號：9866） 2024年第一季度業績公告 我們謹此發佈我們截至2024 年第一季度的未經審計財務業績（「2024 年 第一季度業績」）。2024年第一季度業績可於香港聯合交易所有限公司網 站 www.hkexnews.hk 及本公司網站 ir.nio.com 查閱。 承董事會命 蔚來集團 創始人、董事長兼首席執行官 李斌 ...

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table2_0D2a4te年] 05月31日 [Table_Title] 乐道 L60 预售 21.99 万元起，强势分羹 20-30 万元主流家用市场 [蔚Tab来le_T-itSle2W]( 9866.HK) [ 评T 级ab ：le _DataInfo] 增持 股票代码： 9866 上次评级： 首次覆盖 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： 116.2/30.1 目标价格(港元)： 总市值(亿港元) 849.11 最新收盘价(港元)： 40.95 自由流通市值(亿港元) 788.30 自由流通股数(百万) 1,925.02 [ Table_Summary] 分析判断: 1、低风阻、大空间造型，最大化车内空间。乐道 L60 定位中型 SUV，车身尺寸 4828*1930*1616mm/轴距 1950mm；车身采用低风阻、大空间造型设计，风阻系数 0.229；满座状态下可容纳 5 个行李箱，储物空间充 足。 2、1000 座换电站加持，补能体验极具竞争力。换电 = 纯电版增程，城区小电池、长途租用大电池，可大幅降 低用户购车成本；乐道交付即有1000 座换电站，补能体验极具竞 ...