Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The penetration rate of domestic new energy passenger vehicles has reached 55%, and future sales growth is expected to slow down. However, the increase in battery capacity is anticipated to significantly impact demand, with a projected double-digit growth in battery demand for passenger vehicles by 2026 [2][4] - The domestic new energy passenger vehicle market has entered a consumption-driven growth phase since the end of 2020, with penetration rates increasing from around 10% to an expected 55% by the end of 2025. This growth is accompanied by a slowdown in sales growth due to a higher base [4][17] - The increase in battery capacity is expected to support the growth of battery installations, with single-vehicle battery capacity projected to rise from 52.8 kWh in April 2025 to 61.2 kWh by December 2025 for EVs, and from 23.3 kWh to 33.7 kWh for PHEVs during the same period [4][18] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The market for new energy passenger vehicles is projected to see a slight decline in total vehicle numbers, while new energy vehicles are expected to achieve small single-digit growth due to increased penetration rates. Battery capacity per vehicle is expected to increase by approximately 7%-8%, supporting a battery installation growth rate of around 12% [6][34] Policy and Economic Factors - Positive factors for battery capacity enhancement include changes in the old-for-new policy, which sets a subsidy cap at 8% of the vehicle price in 2026, and changes in purchase tax standards that require PHEVs to have a pure electric range of 100 kWh to qualify for tax exemptions [5][23] - The trend towards larger batteries in range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles is expected to continue, addressing consumer concerns about range anxiety and enhancing the perception of electric vehicles' convenience and cost-effectiveness [24] Product Development - Major manufacturers are launching new models with increased battery capacities. For instance, BYD and Geely are introducing models with capacities ranging from 20.79 kWh to 36.62 kWh for their 2026 versions [27][30] - The introduction of large-capacity EVs and PHEVs is expected to further enrich the market, with new models like the Wanjie M9 and NIO ES9 expected to have battery capacities around 100 kWh [31][33]

全球分区域新能源渗透率： 2025年12月东南亚、英国、俄罗斯、拉美和大洋洲地区新能源渗透 率环比提升，其中东南亚环比提升较多，主要来自vinfast贡献。 中国车企出口： 2025年12月中国车企出口乘用车64.1万辆，出口新能源乘用车24.5万辆，新能 源渗透率达38.2%。其中比亚迪12月出口表现超预期。 投资建议与风险提示 乘用车观点更新： 短期来看，行业补贴政策已落地，看好观望需求转化下26Q1乘用车景气度 复苏，坚定看好乘用车板块。全年维度来看：国内选抗波动+出口选确定性。 国内关注高端电 动化赛道中对政策扰动不敏感的个股江淮汽车，以及高端化有望放量的吉利汽车/长城汽车/北 汽蓝谷/赛力斯/理想等；出口主线优先配置海外体系成熟、执行能力已验证的头部车企，优选 比亚迪/长城汽车/奇瑞汽车，以及零跑/小鹏/上汽集团/长安汽车等。 风险提示： 贸易战升级进一步超出预期；全球经济复苏力度低于预期 未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 电动化数据跟踪：2025年12月行业景气度低于预期，2026年1月以旧换新政策落地 2025年12月多数省市以旧换新政策预算资金池告罄，消费者观望情绪严重，行业零售同比下滑 ...

昨日收涨3.92%的蔚来(NIO.US)今日美股盘前续涨2.52%，报4.89美元。消息面上，蔚来汽车近日宣 布，"蔚来世界模型NWM"新版本正式开启推送，首批将为超过46万辆"Banyan榕"车型推送。"Cedar雪 松"车型及"CedarS雪松"车型，也将于近期开启推送。据悉，此次新版本中，蔚来在国内首次将完整的 闭环强化学习应用于智能辅助驾驶研发，将城区与高速领航辅助全面模型化。此外，新版本新增城区领 航换电功能，可支持全国超过2000座二代及以上城区换电站。 蔚来创始人、董事长、CEO李斌曾表示，蔚来正迈入以高质量增长为核心目标的第三发展阶段。未来将 深化三品牌协同，在各细分市场持续提升份额，保持每年40%-50%的增长；同时将继续坚决投入基础设 施建设，目标到2030年充换电站均突破一万座。(格隆汇) | NIO 蔚来 | | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4.770 + +0.180 +3.92% | | 收盘价 01/29 16:00 美东 | | 4.890 t 0.120 +2.52% | | 盘前价 01/30 04:05 美东 | | 雪 5 24 4 8 9 月 ...

Overall Market - The total market for passenger vehicles in 2025 is projected to have a production of 29.67 million units, with a retail sales figure of 23.74 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [9][10]. - The market share of new energy vehicles (NEV) is expected to reach 53.9% in 2025, up from 47.6% in 2024, indicating a significant increase in consumer adoption [10][12]. Submarket Analysis - The breakdown of the total market shows that NEVs will account for 12.81 million units in retail sales, representing a 17.6% increase compared to 2024 [10][12]. - The retail sales of fuel vehicles are projected to decline by 14.0% year-on-year, highlighting a shift in consumer preference towards NEVs [9][10]. Export Market - The export of NEVs is expected to grow significantly, with a total of 5.74 million units exported in 2025, marking a 19.7% increase from the previous year [16][17]. - The penetration rate of NEVs in the export market is projected to reach 42.2% in 2025, up from 27.1% in 2024, indicating a strong demand for Chinese NEVs abroad [20][22]. Manufacturer Performance - BYD is leading the NEV market with a wholesale volume of 414,784 units, although this represents a decline of 18.6% year-on-year [25]. - Tesla China ranks third in wholesale sales with 97,171 units, showing a modest growth of 3.6% [25]. - The top ten manufacturers collectively account for 71.5% of the NEV market share, indicating a high concentration in the industry [25][26]. Vehicle Type Segmentation - In 2025, the retail sales of sedans, MPVs, and SUVs are projected to be 12.26 million, 1.30 million, and 10.18 million units respectively, with NEVs showing a positive growth trend across all categories [30][31]. - The retail sales of fuel vehicles in the sedan category are expected to decline by 30.3%, while NEVs in the same category are projected to grow by 2.6% [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the passenger car sector, particularly in the context of the new vehicle replacement policy and the resilience of exports [2][3]. Core Insights - The passenger car industry experienced a significant decline in retail sales in December 2025, with a year-on-year drop of 16% and a total retail volume of 227,000 units. The wholesale volume was 279,000 units, reflecting a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year [7][10]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 58.7% in December 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 10.9% [10][12]. - The report highlights the stability of the NEV market, with BYD holding a market share of 25% and Geely at 11% in December 2025 [16]. Electric Vehicle Data Tracking - The report indicates that the old-for-new vehicle replacement policy was implemented in January 2026, which is expected to stimulate demand in the passenger car market [2][3]. - In December 2025, the NEV wholesale volume was 156,300 units, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [12]. - The report notes a significant inventory reduction in the passenger car sector, with a total decrease of 69,000 units in December 2025, including 43,000 units of NEVs [13]. Globalization Data Tracking - The report tracks the performance of Chinese car manufacturers in international markets, noting that in December 2025, 641,000 passenger cars were exported, with 245,000 being NEVs, resulting in a penetration rate of 38.2% for NEVs [3][43]. - The report highlights the strong performance of BYD in exports, particularly in Southeast Asia, where the NEV penetration rate exceeded expectations [3][27]. - The market share of Chinese brands in various regions, including Southeast Asia and Europe, showed positive trends, with notable increases in the UK market [38][40].

每经AI快讯，蔚来-SW(09866.HK)午后涨近4%，截至发稿涨3.7%，报38.62港元，成交额1.62亿港元。 ...

蔚来-SW(09866)午后涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.7%，报38.62港元，成交额1.62亿港元。 蔚来创始人李斌此前公开表示，2026年将实施三次重大系统更新，并已特批增加云端训练算力投入。通 过大规模数据训练，系统在长尾场景的表现有望持续提升。 消息面上，蔚来汽车近日向Banyan系统用户推送了3.3.0版本更新，其中最引人注目的是全新升级的"蔚 来世界模型NWM2.0"正式上车。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，蔚来-SW(09866)午后涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.7%，报38.62港元，成交额1.62亿港 元。 蔚来创始人李斌此前公开表示，2026年将实施三次重大系统更新，并已特批增加云端训练算力投入。通 过大规模数据训练，系统在长尾场景的表现有望持续提升。 消息面上，蔚来汽车近日向Banyan系统用户推送了3.3.0版本更新，其中最引人注目的是全新升级的"蔚 来世界模型NWM 2.0"正式上车。 ...

1月30 日消息，上海蔚来汽车有限公司品牌与传播助理副总裁马麟发微博表示，收到车友反馈，有人拉 车友进群，收二百块钱一个人，说是能保证第一时间得到 es9 的信息，还说他已经试驾过了，能让车主 早提车。这都不是事实。大家千万不要在网络上轻信这样的信息，注意保护个人隐私，预防诈骗。 责任编辑：李思阳 责任编辑：李思阳 1月30 日消息，上海蔚来汽车有限公司品牌与传播助理副总裁马麟发微博表示，收到车友反馈，有人拉 车友进群，收二百块钱一个人，说是能保证第一时间得到 es9 的信息，还说他已经试驾过了，能让车主 早提车。这都不是事实。大家千万不要在网络上轻信这样的信息，注意保护个人隐私，预防诈骗。 ...

蔚来创始人李斌认为 ，尽管 2026 年 1 月销量表现不及预期，但2026 年纯电动汽车市场仍能实现 20% 的同比增长，其中售价超 30 万元的高端纯电动汽车将持续跑赢行业整体。 售后、金融、技术工程服务以及蔚来生活方式品牌等非汽车业务的利润，将持续抵消换电业务收窄的亏损。 管理层表示，受铜、铝、锂以及动态随机存取存储器价格上涨影响，每辆车的成本预计最多增加 5000 元。 管理层仍有信心通过规模效应和提升运营效率，来抵消上述成本上涨带来的压力。 蔚来的目标是到 2030 年实现海外销量占比达到 20% ，届时将先在海外市 场推出萤火虫品牌，随后推出乐道品牌，最后再推出蔚来主品牌。 蔚来创始人重申，未来两年交付量的复合年增长率将达到 40%-50%，这意味着凭借 ES9、ES7 以及乐道 L80 等新车型的加持，2026 年交付量有望达到 45.6 万 - 48.9 万辆。 管理层表示，ES9 将是提升利润率的关键车型，该车售价超 50 万元，单车利润有望突破 10 万元，能够与 宝马 X5、奔驰 GLE 以及问界 M9 等车型展开竞争。 长期战略规划 蔚来计划在长期内推出 2-3 款售价在 15 万 - ...