交银国际研究 公司更新 汽车 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年5月16日 港元42.20 港元59.88↑ +41.9% 蔚来汽车 (9866 HK) 上調至买入，乐道 L60 有望引领蔚来销量进入第二成长曲线  乐道L60发布，预售价21.99万元，定价具吸引力。蔚来昨晚发布子品牌 个股评级 乐道，首款 L60 定位家用智能电动 SUV，9 月开始交付。L60 车长宽高 买入↑ 4828mm*1930mm*1616mm，轴距2950mm，比 Model Y 更长、更宽、空 间更大。全系标配45项主动和智能安全辅助功能。空间表现方面，新车 拥有1046mm前排头部空间、1010mm后排头部空间和160mm后排净膝 1年股价表现 部空间。从官方公布的参数来看，乐道L60能耗表现确实不错，官方能耗 12.1kWh/100km。续航方面，乐道L60会提供三个电池包，续航分别为标 9866 HK 100% MSCI中国指数 准续航 555km（60kWh）、长续航 730+km（85kWh）及超长续航 80% 1000+km。预售价21.99万元（人民币，下同），按照我们估算L60 BOM 60% 40% 成本 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 汽车 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 2024年5月16日 港元42.20 港元59.88↑ +41.9% 蔚来汽车 (9866 HK) 上調至买入，乐道 L60 有望引领蔚来销量进入第二成长曲线  乐道L60发布，预售价21.99万元，定价具吸引力。蔚来昨晚发布子品牌 个股评级 乐道，首款 L60 定位家用智能电动 SUV，9 月开始交付。L60 车长宽高 买入↑ 4828mm*1930mm*1616mm，轴距2950mm，比 Model Y 更长、更宽、空 间更大。全系标配45项主动和智能安全辅助功能。空间表现方面，新车 拥有1046mm前排头部空间、1010mm后排头部空间和160mm后排净膝 1年股价表现 部空间。从官方公布的参数来看，乐道L60能耗表现确实不错，官方能耗 12.1kWh/100km。续航方面，乐道L60会提供三个电池包，续航分别为标 9866 HK 100% MSCI中国指数 准续航 555km（60kWh）、长续航 730+km（85kWh）及超长续航 80% 1000+km。预售价21.99万元（人民币，下同），按照我们估算L60 BOM 60% 40% 成本 ...

申万宏源研究 上海市南京东路99号 | +86 21 2329 7818 www.swsresearch.com 简单金融 成就梦想 汽车 | 公司研究 业绩符合预期，乐道+换电改善盈利能力 2024年4月22日 蔚来-SW (9866.HK) 持有 4月9日公司披露2023年年报，2023年蔚来交付了16.0万辆汽车，同比+30.7%，合计实现营 收556.2亿元，同比+12.9%；实现净亏损211.5亿元，同比增亏45.3%。 下调 公司2023年全年销量16.00万辆。2023年12月，蔚来交付新车18,012台，同比增长13.9%； 2023年四季度，蔚来共交付新车50,045台，同比增长25.0%，季度交付量超交付指引；2023年 全年，蔚来共交付新车160,038台，同比增长30.7%，其中包括5.7万辆ES6、4.1万辆ET5、2.1 市场数据：2024年4月19日 万辆ET5T、1.4万辆ES8、1.1万辆EC6、0.7万辆ES7、0.6万辆ET7、0.4万辆EC7。 收盘价（港币） 30.15 恒生中国企业指数 16,224 新车型蓄势待发，产品矩阵进一步完善。1）2023年12月23日NI ...

汽车行业忽然掀起“惊涛骇浪”的直播热潮。 前有蔚来汽车CEO李斌直播测试150度电池包续航，一口气开了1000公里，后有“保定车神”长城汽车董事长魏建军直播测试长城汽车最新一代智驾系统 Coffee Pilot Ultra。 据伯虎财经不完全统计，近期亲自下场直播的车企一把手还有奇瑞汽车董事长尹同跃、极越汽车CEO夏一平与百度CEO李彦宏、360创始人周鸿祎与哪吒汽车CEO张勇，吉利控股集团董事长李书福与东方甄选董事长俞敏洪等大佬等。 一号位纷纷亲自下场直播，首要原因当然是来自小米和华为的冲击。小米不用说，用一场全网参与的发布会给友商们上了一课。华为虽然不卖车，但也会为智选模式下的问界和智界办发布会。在这两家国民品牌海啸般的声量下，友商们的动作被埋在了汹涌的海水之下。 当然，更深层的原因还是新能源汽车的竞争更加激烈了。不止一家车企的掌门人表态，淘汰赛已经开始。即便是特斯拉也无法避免下滑的窘境。日前特斯拉宣布了全球裁员10%的消息，而在二级市场，今年一季度特斯拉累计跌幅高达29%。 如何与消费者建立更紧密的联系，培育消费心智是每个车企都需要去努力解决的问题。不过直播真的能成为车企营销的新常态吗？一些传统车企能否 ...

汽车行业忽然掀起“惊涛骇浪”的直播热潮。 前有蔚来汽车CEO李斌直播测试150度电池包续航，一口气开了1000公里，后有“保定车神”长城汽车董事长魏建军直播测试长城汽车最新一代智驾系统 Coffee Pilot Ultra。 据伯虎财经不完全统计，近期亲自下场直播的车企一把手还有奇瑞汽车董事长尹同跃、极越汽车CEO夏一平与百度CEO李彦宏、360创始人周鸿祎与哪吒汽车CEO张勇，吉利控股集团董事长李书福与东方甄选董事长俞敏洪等大佬等。 一号位纷纷亲自下场直播，首要原因当然是来自小米和华为的冲击。小米不用说，用一场全网参与的发布会给友商们上了一课。华为虽然不卖车，但也会为智选模式下的问界和智界办发布会。在这两家国民品牌海啸般的声量下，友商们的动作被埋在了汹涌的海水之下。 当然，更深层的原因还是新能源汽车的竞争更加激烈了。不止一家车企的掌门人表态，淘汰赛已经开始。即便是特斯拉也无法避免下滑的窘境。日前特斯拉宣布了全球裁员10%的消息，而在二级市场，今年一季度特斯拉累计跌幅高达29%。 如何与消费者建立更紧密的联系，培育消费心智是每个车企都需要去努力解决的问题。不过直播真的能成为车企营销的新常态吗？一些传统车企能否 ...

Share Structure and Listings - NIO has 1,932,063,749 Class A ordinary shares with a par value of $0.00025 per share outstanding as of December 31, 2023[3] - NIO has 148,500,000 Class C ordinary shares with a par value of $0.00025 per share outstanding as of December 31, 2023[3] - NIO's American Depositary Shares (ADS), each representing one Class A ordinary share, are listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "NIO"[3] - NIO's Class A ordinary shares are also listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (ticker: 9866) and the Singapore Exchange (ticker: NIO)[3] - NIO's A-class ordinary shares are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under the stock code "9866" and are subject to certain exemptions from the Hong Kong Listing Rules[169] - The company's A-class ordinary shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange traded between a low of HK$55.35 and a high of HK$122.60 in 2023[173] - The company's A-class ordinary shares on the Singapore Exchange traded between a low of $7.07 and a high of $15.78 in 2023[173] Regulatory Compliance and Financial Reporting - NIO is classified as a large accelerated filer according to the Securities Exchange Act of 1934[4] - NIO prepares its financial statements in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP)[4] - NIO has submitted the auditor's report on the effectiveness of internal control over financial reporting as required by Section 404(b) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act[4] - NIO is not a shell company as defined in the Securities Exchange Act of 1934[4] - NIO has not been involved in any bankruptcy proceedings in the past five years[4] - NIO has filed all required reports under Sections 12, 13, or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934[4] - Management believes the company's financial reporting internal controls were effective as of December 31, 2023, with independent auditors confirming this assessment[104] Variable Interest Entities (VIEs) and Contractual Arrangements - NIO's variable interest entities (VIEs) contributed negligible revenue of RMB 13.8 million (USD 2 million) in 2023, compared to zero in 2021 and 2022[11] - Internal services provided by VIEs to NIO's subsidiaries amounted to RMB 110.5 million (USD 15.6 million) in 2023, up from RMB 8.92 million in 2022 and RMB 600,000 in 2021[11] - NIO's VIEs, including Beijing NIO, Anhui NIO Zhixing, and Anhui NIO Data Tech, have no significant operations, assets, or liabilities as of December 31, 2023[11] - NIO relies on contractual arrangements with its VIEs to maintain financial control and consolidate their financial results under US GAAP[11] - NIO's VIE structure is designed to comply with Chinese regulations restricting foreign investment in certain sectors like value-added telecom services and autonomous driving[9] - NIO's contractual arrangements with VIEs include exclusive business cooperation agreements, exclusive purchase rights, equity pledge agreements, and loan agreements[11] - NIO's VIEs hold necessary licenses for value-added telecom services, insurance brokerage, and smart driving technology development[9] - NIO's VIE structure may pose risks, including potential conflicts of interest with nominee shareholders and challenges in maintaining control over VIEs[11] - NIO's VIE-related operations are insignificant to its total revenue and net loss as of the annual report date[9] - The company's Cayman Islands holding company faces significant uncertainty regarding the enforceability of contractual arrangements with its variable interest entities (VIEs) due to potential changes in Chinese laws and regulations, which could severely impact the company's financial performance[12] Regulatory and Legal Risks in China - The company's operations in China are subject to substantial regulatory oversight, and failure to comply with existing or future laws could result in severe penalties or forced divestment of business interests[12] - The company's Chinese subsidiaries and VIEs have obtained necessary licenses, including ICP and insurance brokerage licenses, but may require additional approvals in the future due to regulatory uncertainties[13] - The company has applied for and been included in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's catalog of automobile manufacturers for its pure electric passenger vehicle investment project in Anhui Province[13] - The Chinese government has increased oversight on overseas fundraising activities and foreign investments in Chinese issuers, with new regulations such as the Cybersecurity Review Measures and rules for overseas securities issuance and listing taking effect in 2023[14] - Failure to obtain or delay in obtaining necessary approvals for overseas fundraising or capital-raising activities could result in penalties, restrictions on repatriation of funds, and other adverse impacts on the company's operations and financial performance[14] - The company's restricted net assets for its Chinese subsidiaries and variable interest entities amounted to RMB 42.2562 billion (USD 5.9517 billion) as of December 31, 2023[16] - The company's variable interest entities and their subsidiaries had restricted net assets of RMB 54.7 million (USD 7.7 million) as of December 31, 2023[16] - The company's outstanding principal amount of loans to variable interest entities was RMB 86.9 million (USD 12.2 million) as of December 31, 2023[18] - The company's outstanding principal amount of loans to nominee shareholders of variable interest entities was RMB 50.1 million (USD 7.1 million) as of December 31, 2023[18] - The company paid RMB 700,000 (USD 100,000) in service fees to Beijing NIO for the year ended December 31, 2023[18] - Anhui Weilai Zhixing Technology paid RMB 70.1 million and RMB 58.4 million (USD 8.2 million) to Anhui Weilai Zhijia in 2022 and 2023 respectively for services provided under a separate service agreement[19] Financial Performance and Capital Structure - NIO Group has not declared or paid any cash dividends and currently plans to retain most or all available funds and future earnings for business operations and expansion[20] - The company has not been profitable since its inception and recorded net losses of RMB 4.0169 billion, RMB 14.4371 billion, and RMB 20.7198 billion (USD 2.9183 billion) for the years ending December 31, 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively[32] - The company experienced net operating cash outflows of RMB 3.866 billion and RMB 1.3815 billion (USD 194.6 million) in 2022 and 2023, respectively, despite a net operating cash inflow in 2021[32] - The company is heavily investing in R&D, energy networks, service networks, and sales and marketing to expand its business, but these investments may not lead to increased revenue or cash inflows[32] - The company is developing mass-market electric vehicles, smart assisted driving technology, and other core technologies, but faces challenges in maintaining gross margins due to aggressive pricing strategies in the EV market[32] - The company may face liquidity issues if it cannot generate sufficient revenue or secure adequate financing, which could negatively impact its operations and financial condition[33] - The company has a high level of debt to support its capital structure and shareholder cash flow needs, with total long-term borrowings of RMB 130.429 billion (USD 18.370 billion) as of December 31, 2023[95] - The company issued USD 750 million of 4.50% convertible senior notes due 2024, which were fully repaid in February 2024[95] - The company issued USD 750 million of 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2026 and USD 750 million of 0.50% convertible senior notes due 2027[95] - The company issued USD 575 million of 3.875% convertible senior notes due 2029 and USD 575 million of 4.625% convertible senior notes due 2030[95] - The company repurchased USD 192.9 million of 2026 notes in 2022 for a total cash consideration of USD 170.5 million[96] - The company repurchased USD 255.6 million of 2026 notes and USD 244.4 million of 2027 notes in September 2023 for total cash considerations of USD 249.9 million and USD 222.0 million, respectively[96] - The company completed a tender offer for USD 300.5 million of 2026 notes in February 2024[96] - The 2026 and 2027 notes are unsecured and can be converted into American Depositary Shares (ADS) at an initial conversion rate of 10.7458 ADS per USD 1,000 principal amount[96] - The 2029 and 2030 notes are unsecured and can be converted into ADS at an initial conversion rate of 89.9685 ADS per USD 1,000 principal amount[97] - The company may redeem the 2029 and 2030 notes under certain conditions, including changes in tax laws[97] Manufacturing and Production - The company acquired manufacturing equipment and assets from Jianghuai Automobile for a total consideration of approximately RMB 3.16 billion (excluding tax) in December 2023[36] - The company transitioned from cooperative manufacturing to independent manufacturing, now independently producing all existing models at F1 and F2 factories[36] - The company signed a manufacturing technical service agreement with Jianglai to provide technical support, including logistics, production quality control, and personnel training[36] - The company has limited experience in independent manufacturing, which could lead to delays in product launches, capacity expansion, and potential quality issues[34] - The transition from cooperative manufacturing to independent manufacturing introduces additional risks, including challenges in managing production efficiency and training staff[35] - The company may need to expand or renovate its manufacturing facilities, which could face delays or cost overruns, impacting production timelines and financial performance[35] - Delays in capacity expansion or the development, manufacturing, and launch of future vehicle models could result in customer complaints and harm the company's reputation and growth prospects[35] - The company's ability to attract and retain qualified personnel for manufacturing and production roles is uncertain, which could lead to production delays and inefficiencies[35] Government Policies and Subsidies - Government subsidies for new energy vehicles in China decreased by 10% in 2020 and further reduced by 30% in 2022 compared to 2021 standards[37] - The new energy vehicle purchase subsidy policy in China ended on December 31, 2022, affecting sales performance in 2021, 2022, and 2023[37] - Import tariffs on passenger vehicles in China were reduced to 15% starting July 1, 2018, potentially weakening the price advantage of domestic vehicles[37] - Foreign ownership restrictions for new energy vehicle manufacturers in China were lifted in 2018, allowing foreign competitors to establish wholly-owned facilities[37] - The 2021 Negative List for Foreign Investment Access removed foreign ownership restrictions for fuel passenger vehicle manufacturers, effective January 1, 2022[37] - The Chinese government has implemented a new energy vehicle (NEV) credit policy to incentivize automakers to increase production and sales of NEVs, effective from August 1, 2023[38] - NEV credits can be earned by manufacturing or importing NEVs, and excess credits can be traded through a credit trading system established by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology[38] - The NEV credit ratio for automakers is set at 18% for 2023, up from 16% in 2022 and 14% in 2021[38] - The company generated revenue from selling NEV credits of RMB 51.65 million in 2021, RMB 6.73 million in 2022, and RMB 1.06 million (USD 150,000) in 2023[38] - The NEV purchase tax exemption policy has been extended, with full exemption for NEVs purchased between January 1, 2024, and December 31, 2025, and a 50% reduction for NEVs purchased between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2027[39] Product Development and Technology - The company's future cars may not meet customer expectations, potentially leading to product defects, recalls, and negative impacts on brand reputation[40] - The company has delivered cars based on NIO Technology 2.0 (NT2.0) with some NAD features and plans to gradually enable more NAD functions, but there is no guarantee that NAD will meet expectations[40] - The company's cars rely heavily on software, which is complex and may contain defects or errors at launch, potentially leading to delays, recalls, and increased warranty costs[40] - The company currently offers two battery options: 75 kWh (standard range) and 100 kWh (long range), with plans to deliver a 150 kWh (ultra-long range) battery using next-generation technology in the near future[41] - The company faces challenges in deploying its energy service system, including delays, insufficient or excessive service in certain regions, safety risks, and potential damage to vehicles during charging services[41] - The company launched its official used car business in January 2021, establishing a nationwide network covering inspection, evaluation, acquisition, and sales services, and partnered with used car dealers to facilitate transactions through its NIO app[42] - The company relies heavily on single-source suppliers for many components, with limited geographic diversification, which could lead to increased costs and production delays[43] - The company faces potential risks from working with startup suppliers, including supply chain disruptions, inconsistent product quality, and financial instability, which could impact its ability to deliver high-quality products and services[44] - Semiconductor chip shortages led to a 5-day suspension of production at the F1 factory starting March 29, 2021, and caused delays in vehicle deliveries for several days in May 2021[45] - In April 2022, vehicle production was suspended due to component shortages, and in July 2022, ET7 and EC6 production was limited by a shortage of die-casting parts[45] - The company launched the Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) model on August 20, 2020, offering users a discount on vehicle purchases and monthly battery subscription fees[46] - The company holds approximately 19.4% equity in Wuhan Weineng Battery Asset Co., Ltd., which manages the BaaS operations[46] - The company provides guarantees for user subscription fee defaults to the battery asset company, with the maximum claimable guarantee amount not exceeding the cumulative service fees received from the battery asset company[47] - As of December 31, 2023, the company's guarantee liabilities to the battery asset company were not significant[47] - The company charges a non-refundable deposit of less than 2.0% of the manufacturer's suggested retail price for vehicle reservations, but cancellations still occur due to various reasons[48] - The company faces risks related to its Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and higher-level autonomous driving technologies, including potential regulatory restrictions and public safety concerns[49] - Accidents involving vehicles equipped with ADAS, including those from the company, could lead to negative publicity, regulatory investigations, and potential recalls[49] International Expansion and Risks - The company faces challenges in international expansion, including legal, regulatory, political, and economic risks, particularly in new markets like Norway, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden[50] - Potential EU investigation into punitive tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles could negatively impact the company's European business and expansion plans[50] - International expansion requires significant capital investment, which may strain resources and complicate current operations[50] - Compliance with foreign and Chinese laws, as well as potential sanctions for violations, poses risks to the company's reputation and business performance[50] - Challenges in localizing products, meeting regulatory requirements, and building brand awareness in new markets[50] - Risks related to international payment systems, logistics infrastructure, and data security laws across multiple jurisdictions[51] - Increasingly strict data transfer restrictions and barriers between different jurisdictions[51] - Potential impact of U.S. export controls on advanced computing chips and semiconductor manufacturing, limiting access to U.S. technology[52] - Uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade policies, including tariffs and retaliatory measures, which could affect the company's competitive position and demand for its products[52] - Political instability and economic conditions in specific regions, including trade disputes and territorial conflicts, may hinder international operations[51] - The US government's executive order on August 9, 2023, requires reporting or prohibiting US investments in sensitive technologies and products in China, including semiconductors, quantum information technology, and AI, which could negatively impact the company's business and financial performance[53] - The EU Commission announced in September 2023 an investigation into imposing punitive tariffs on low-priced electric vehicles, potentially leading to anti-subsidy or punitive tariffs that could negatively affect the company's operations and expansion in Europe[53] - The company faces challenges in expanding and operating subscription and leasing services in Europe, including potential losses, low fleet utilization, and higher-than-expected customer default rates, which could negatively impact its business[54] - The company's subscription service in Europe, launched in October 2022, requires significant capital and faces risks such as theft, damage, or operational difficulties of leasing partners, which could harm user experience and brand reputation[54] - The company faces risks of reduced residual value of used cars in its subscription service, which could lower asset value and increase future subscription pricing pressures[55] - Internal methods for calculating residual value may be uncertain, and if actual residual values are lower than estimated, it could lead to insufficient risk provisions and potential impairments on used car inventory[56] - A significant decline in used car values could create pricing pressure on the company's new car business if customers are unwilling to pay higher monthly subscription fees due to reduced residual values[56] Supply Chain and Raw Materials - The company faces risks from rising lithium prices, which could reduce demand for pure electric vehicles and negatively impact its business[57] - The company plans to upgrade and introduce new car models with the latest digital technologies, but this may require high costs and reduce returns on existing models[57] - The company relies heavily on the continuous supply of high-quality lithium batteries, with risks including supply disruptions and rising costs of raw materials like lithium, nickel, and cobalt[59] - The company plans to manufacture its own batteries to supplement supplier batteries, but this requires significant investment and may not be achieved within planned timelines[60] Data Security and Privacy - The company is subject to cybersecurity, privacy, and data protection regulations in China and other jurisdictions, with potential risks of data breaches and legal liabilities[61] - The company has implemented advanced encryption and security measures to protect customer data, but technological advancements and hacking risks could still compromise these measures[62] - In

“如果只是单纯的降车价，未免显得有些太缺乏技术含量了。” 在3月初的一场沟通会上，当被问及蔚来会不会降价时，该公司联合创始人兼总裁秦力洪这样对笔者说道。在此之前，包括比亚迪、小鹏、极氪、腾势等等主打电动汽车的车企已经纷纷发布了直接的降价方案。而蔚来仅仅对于2023款现车推出了“终端优惠”，但具体优惠额度并没有公开放出，显得“犹抱琵琶半遮面”。 几天后的3月14日，蔚来发布了新的BaaS（Battery as a Service 电池即服务）电池租用服务政策。其中，蔚来体系内两种规格的电池包价格进行了下调。针对老车主，该公司也提供了用于购买新车时可抵扣车价的礼券。总而言之，蔚来通过调整电池租用服务费，来引导更多用户使用BaaS方案。这样在用户上车时，车价就能大幅降低7万或12.8万元， 变相降价了属于。 相比较其他车企简单直给的促销，蔚来自打成立以来的数次“官降”全部都是以各类旗号为“遮掩”进行的。就在这一次电池租用服务费价格调整后，笔者的一位朋友*时间就发来私信笑称： “蔚来好像又在算计人了！” 蔚来，为啥又让人看不懂了 按照蔚来这一轮BaaS方案的调整：如果一位用户用满了5年，且享受了买四赠一的优惠，那么 ...

Core Viewpoint - The distribution of cross-border capital has become uneven due to global geopolitical influences, with developed regions like Europe and the US withdrawing capital from China, while Middle Eastern investors are emerging as a significant source of funding for Chinese enterprises and funds [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Trends and Opportunities - Chinese enterprises and fund managers are increasingly engaging with Middle Eastern markets, with numerous official and private delegations visiting the region [1]. - There is a mix of successful collaborations, such as NIO's partnership with Middle Eastern investors, and failures, like the delayed $5.6 billion investment in HiPhi [1]. - The relationship between China and the Middle East is warming on both political and market levels, with clear plans for increased investment and cooperation [1][2]. Group 2: Characteristics of Middle Eastern Sovereign Wealth Funds - Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) are primarily funded by oil revenues and are crucial for long-term growth, with many countries recognizing the need for economic diversification [3][5]. - The top sovereign wealth funds in 2023 include the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA), and Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF), with a combined asset under management (AuM) exceeding $4.1 trillion [5][7]. - These funds are increasingly focused on non-oil sectors, with PIF investing nearly 70% of its capital in non-oil industries within Saudi Arabia [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Preferences - In 2023, 42% of sovereign wealth funds investing in non-local assets are from the Middle East, with a significant portion allocated to listed equities and bonds [8]. - The allocation strategies vary, with some funds like ADIA focusing on overseas investments while others like PIF prioritize domestic investments [10]. - The investment preferences of Middle Eastern funds are shifting, with a notable decrease in technology sector investments and an increase in real estate, infrastructure, and energy sectors [16]. Group 4: Engagement with Chinese Markets - Middle Eastern sovereign funds are showing a growing interest in investing in Chinese markets, with several funds recently opening Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) accounts to facilitate investments in A-shares [12][13]. - Despite the overall cautious approach towards Chinese equities due to macroeconomic factors, some funds are increasing their exposure to the Chinese market [15]. - Understanding the specific investment strategies and regional allocations of these sovereign funds is crucial for Chinese enterprises seeking capital [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - NIO's CEO Li Bin has highlighted the industry's battery lifespan issues, revealing that current battery cycle lifespans are significantly lower than the vehicle's potential mileage, which can reach 1 million kilometers, while battery lifespans typically only cover 240,000 kilometers [1][2] Group 1: Battery Lifespan and Industry Reality - The collaboration between NIO and CATL aims to develop long-lifespan batteries that can last nearly twice the national warranty period, targeting a lifespan of 15 years with a state of health (SOH) of no less than 85% [2][3] - Over the past eight years, more than 19 million electric vehicles have been sold with batteries that meet national warranty requirements, many of which will soon exceed their warranty periods [2][3] - The number of electric vehicles reaching warranty expiration is expected to rise sharply, with projections indicating that by 2032, the number of "out of warranty" electric vehicles could reach 7.2 million [3] Group 2: Economic Implications and Market Dynamics - NIO's long-lifespan battery initiative is crucial for adjusting the Battery as a Service (BaaS) model, allowing for reduced operational costs and more refined operations [4] - The market price for power batteries has significantly decreased, with costs dropping from 800-1000 yuan per watt-hour to 400-600 yuan per watt-hour by the end of 2023 [4] - The high cost of battery replacement is a major concern for consumers, with replacement costs for electric vehicles often exceeding 100,000 yuan, which can deter potential buyers [6][7] Group 3: Second-Hand Market and Consumer Sentiment - The longevity of batteries is critical for the second-hand electric vehicle market, as improved battery lifespan could enhance resale values and facilitate market circulation [5][6] - Current data shows that electric vehicles depreciate significantly faster than traditional fuel vehicles, with electric vehicles retaining only about 30% of their value after three years compared to 60-70% for fuel vehicles [6] - Consumer anxiety regarding battery replacement costs, insufficient range, and safety concerns are major barriers to the adoption of electric vehicles [6][8] Group 4: Recycling and Environmental Considerations - The industry faces challenges in battery recycling, with only about 25% of retired batteries being recycled properly, despite projections that by 2030, the volume of retired batteries could reach 3.5 million tons [8][9] - The design of integrated battery systems complicates the recycling process, making it difficult for recycling companies to dismantle battery packs [8][9]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·汽车(HS) 蔚来-SW（09866.HK） 2023Q4 季报点评：Q4 业绩符合预期，静待 2024年 03月 10日 新品牌放量 证券分析师 曾朵红 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 [ 盈Ta 利bl 预e_ 测EP 与S] 估 值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 黄细里 营业总收入（百万元） 49,269 55,618 88,578 117,519 136,945 执业证书：S0600520010001 同比 36.34% 12.89% 59.26% 32.67% 16.53% 021-60199793 归母净利润（百万元） -14,559 -21,147 -13,172 -2,113 1,731 huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 同比 -% -% -% -% -% 研究助理 孟璐 EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） -8.67 -12.59 -7.84 -1.26 1.03 执业证书：S0600122080033 P/E（现价&最新摊薄） - - - ...