恒生科技指数盘初持续走强涨超1%，蔚来汽车(09866.HK)涨超4%领涨成分股。 ...

( 於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司 ) 股份代號 : 9866 年報 2024 | 目錄 | | --- | | 簡介 | | 5 | | --- | --- | --- | | 前瞻性資料 | | 7 | | 第一部分. | | 9 | | 第1項. | 董事、高級管理層及顧問的身份 | 10 | | 第2項. | 發售統計數據及預期時間表 | 10 | | 第3項. | 主要資料 | 10 | | 第4項. | 有關本公司的資料 | 122 | | 第4A項. | 未解決的員工意見 | 191 | | 第5項. | 經營及財務回顧與前景 | 192 | | 第6項. | 董事、高級管理層及僱員 | 216 | | 第7項. | 主要股東及關聯方交易 | 234 | | 第8項. | 財務資料 | 238 | | 第9項. | 發售及上市 | 240 | | 第10項. | 其他資料 | 241 | | 第11項. | 關於市場風險的定量及定性披露 | 268 | | 第12項. | 股本證券以外的證券描述 | 270 | | 第二部分. | | 285 | | 第13項. | 違約、拖欠 ...

Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the total revenue reached RMB 19.703 billion (USD 2.699 billion), representing a 15.2% increase year-over-year and a 5.5% increase quarter-over-quarter[13]. - For the full year 2024, total revenue was RMB 65.732 billion (USD 9.005 billion), an 18.2% increase from the previous year[16]. - In Q4 2024, vehicle sales amounted to RMB 17.4756 billion (USD 2.3941 billion), up 13.2% year-over-year and 4.7% quarter-over-quarter[25]. - In 2024, total revenue reached RMB 65.7316 billion (USD 9.0052 billion), representing an 18.2% increase from the previous year[25]. - Total revenue for 2023 was RMB 55,617,933, an increase of 12.5% compared to RMB 49,257,270 in 2022[56]. Vehicle Deliveries - The total vehicle deliveries in Q4 2024 amounted to 72,689 units, a 45.2% increase compared to Q4 2023 and a 17.5% increase compared to Q3 2024[11]. - In January 2025, the company delivered 13,863 vehicles, and in February 2025, it delivered 13,192 vehicles, totaling 27,055 vehicles delivered in 2025, with cumulative deliveries reaching 698,619 vehicles[19]. - Vehicle deliveries are expected to be between 41,000 and 43,000 units in Q1 2025, representing an increase of approximately 36.4% to 43.1% year-over-year[36]. Profitability and Losses - The gross profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 2.309 billion (USD 316 million), an 80.5% increase year-over-year[13]. - The operating loss for Q4 2024 was RMB 6.033 billion (USD 826 million), a decrease of 8.9% compared to Q4 2023[13]. - The net loss for Q4 2024 was RMB 7.112 billion (USD 974 million), an increase of 32.5% year-over-year[13]. - The adjusted net loss for the full year 2024 was RMB 20.473 billion (USD 2.805 billion), an increase of 11.6% compared to the previous year[17]. - Total net loss for 2024 was RMB 22.4017 billion ($3.069 billion), compared to RMB 20.7198 billion in 2023[32]. Cash and Assets - The cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term deposits as of December 31, 2024, totaled RMB 41.9 billion (USD 5.7 billion)[13]. - NIO Group reported cash and cash equivalents of RMB 32,935,111 thousand as of December 31, 2023, down from RMB 19,328,920 thousand in 2024[49]. - NIO's total assets amounted to RMB 117,383,202 thousand as of December 31, 2023, decreasing to RMB 107,604,612 thousand in 2024[49]. Research and Development - R&D expenses for Q4 2024 were RMB 3.6358 billion ($498.1 million), a decrease of 8.5% year-over-year and an increase of 9.6% from Q3 2024[30]. - Research and development expenses for Q4 2023 were RMB 3,972,127, compared to RMB 3,318,740 in Q3 2023, reflecting an increase of approximately 19.7%[53]. - Research and development expenses for 2023 were RMB 13,431,399, accounting for 24.1% of total revenue[56]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to enhance profitability in 2025 by focusing on cost reduction through technological advancements and operational efficiency[23]. - The new Firefly brand models are set to launch in April, playing a crucial role in the company's future international market expansion[23]. - The company aims to enhance its manufacturing capacity and expand its market presence through strategic partnerships and technological innovations[41]. - NIO is focused on developing new energy solutions, including battery swapping and subscription services, to meet evolving market demands[41]. Market Outlook - Total revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to be between RMB 12.367 billion ($1.694 billion) and RMB 12.859 billion ($1.762 billion), reflecting a year-over-year growth of approximately 24.8% to 29.8%[36]. - The company plans to continue investing in new product development and market expansion strategies to enhance future performance[56]. - NIO aims to improve its operational efficiency and reduce costs in the upcoming fiscal year[56].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious optimism regarding the market performance of the Firefly model in 2025, indicating a hold rating for the stock [1]. Core Insights - The Firefly, positioned as a compact EV priced at Rmb148,800, targets younger consumers but faces intense competition from established brands like BYD, Geely, and Aion, as well as an upcoming Tesla model in a similar price range [1][63]. - NIO's sub-brand ONVO is struggling with production constraints, which may affect the Firefly's delivery ramp-up when it launches in April 2025 [1][63]. - The design of the Firefly has received mixed reviews, with some consumers appreciating its unique look while others find it too extravagant [1][63]. - The pre-sale price of the Firefly does not offer a significant value advantage compared to traditional ICE vehicles or competing EVs, necessitating more flexible production and pricing strategies to succeed in the competitive market [1][63]. Summary by Sections Market Competition - The compact EV market is becoming increasingly competitive, with established players already dominating the segment and new entrants expected to intensify the competition [1][63]. Production and Delivery Challenges - ONVO's production challenges and the uncertain delivery timeline for the Firefly could hinder its market entry and performance [1][63]. Consumer Perception - The Firefly's design has polarized consumer opinions, which could impact its acceptance in the market [1][63]. Pricing Strategy - The pricing of the Firefly is not significantly lower than that of traditional vehicles, which may limit its appeal unless accompanied by strong marketing and brand positioning [1][63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" investment rating for NIO Inc. [4] Core Views - The third-quarter results of NIO Inc. met expectations, with new brand launches driving positive sales momentum [4] - Total sales for the first three quarters reached 149,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.7% [4] - Total revenue for the same period was 46.03 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [4] - The gross margin improved to 9.1%, an increase of 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 15.53 billion yuan, a reduction in loss by 30 million yuan year-on-year [4] Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In Q3 2024, total sales were 62,000 units, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 11.6% and 7.8% respectively [4] - Total revenue for Q3 was 18.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.0% [4] Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 was 10.7%, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 2.7 and 1.0 percentage points respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was a loss of 5.14 billion yuan, with an increase in loss of 510 million yuan year-on-year and 20 million yuan quarter-on-quarter [4] Product and Market Dynamics - The average revenue per vehicle decreased to 273,000 yuan for the first three quarters, down 11.2% year-on-year [5] - The sales mix shifted towards lower-priced models, with the proportion of sales from models priced below 400,000 yuan increasing from 82.5% in Q3 2023 to 89.8% in Q3 2024 [5] - The launch of the new brand, Ladao, is expected to significantly contribute to sales growth, with the Ladao L60 model receiving 65,000 orders shortly after its launch [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards due to strong demand for new models, with projected revenues of 66.51 billion yuan, 93.90 billion yuan, and 116.39 billion yuan respectively [6] - The net profit forecast for 2024 has been revised down to a loss of 19.3 billion yuan, while the forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to losses of 13.6 billion yuan and 9.1 billion yuan respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO-SW (09866 HK) with a target price of HK$47 9 and a target market cap of $12 8 billion [3][5] Core Views - NIO's Q3 2024 performance showed strong delivery numbers with 61 855 vehicles delivered including 61 023 NIO brand and 832 Onvo brand vehicles Revenue declined 2 1% YoY but increased 7% QoQ to RMB18 67 billion with gross margin improving to 10 7% [3] - The company expects Q4 2024 revenue to be between RMB19 68-20 38 billion representing 15%-19 2% YoY growth driven by the Onvo brand despite potential softness in NIO brand sales [3] - NIO is rapidly expanding its product matrix with the NT3 0 platform's first model ET9 set for launch in December 2024 and delivery in March 2025 priced at RMB800 000 The Onvo brand is expected to drive growth with new SUV models launching in 2025 [3] - The company aims to double its 2025 sales compared to 2024 supported by its expanding product portfolio and charging infrastructure with 2 737 battery swap stations and 24 282 charging piles globally as of November 20 2024 [3] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 gross margin improved by 2 8pct YoY and 1 1pct QoQ to 10 7% with automotive gross margin reaching 13 1% due to lower BOM costs Non-GAAP net loss narrowed to RMB4 4 billion with a loss margin of 23 6% [3] - For 2024-2026 the report forecasts sales of 220 000 400 000 and 490 000 vehicles respectively with total revenues of RMB66 1 billion RMB102 8 billion and RMB122 1 billion Non-GAAP net loss margins are expected to improve from -27% in 2024 to -11% in 2026 [3] - The company's financials show a strong cash position with RMB32 94 billion in cash and equivalents as of Q3 2024 and total assets of RMB117 38 billion [9] Product and Market Strategy - NIO's product strategy includes the launch of the ET9 under the NIO brand new SUV models under the Onvo brand and the debut of the Firefly brand targeting the compact car market in 2025 [3] - The company plans to expand its charging network significantly in 2025 to support its sales growth aiming for county-level coverage of battery swap stations [3] - NIO maintains a leading position in China's premium EV market with over 40% market share in the RMB300 000+ pure EV segment [3] Valuation and Forecast - The report values NIO at 0 9X 2025e P/S with a target market cap of $12 8 billion and a target price of HK$47 9 for the HK-listed shares and $6 2 for the US-listed shares [3] - Sales are expected to grow from 222 886 units in 2024 to 492 297 units in 2026 with the Onvo and Firefly brands contributing significantly to the growth [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO, with a target price adjusted to $5.5 for the US stock and HKD 42.6 for the Hong Kong stock, corresponding to potential upside of 18% and 17% respectively [3][5][7]. Core Insights - NIO is expected to enter a significant year for new product sales, with the introduction of the second brand, ONVO, and the third brand, Firefly, which will enhance the product matrix and broaden price coverage [3][4]. - The company is focusing on maintaining the high-end brand positioning of its main brand, NIO, and has reduced promotional efforts to improve profit margins. The gross margin for NIO is projected to continue increasing [3][4]. - Operating leverage is anticipated to manifest gradually, with operating and net losses expected to narrow over the coming quarters [3][4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - In Q3 2023, NIO's gross margin reached 13.1%, a year-on-year increase of 2 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9 percentage points, driven by cost optimization and improved manufacturing efficiency [4][10]. - The company aims to double its vehicle sales in 2024, with production capacity for the ONVO L60 expected to ramp up to 20,000 units per month by March 2024 [4][10]. - The gross margin target for the NIO brand is set to reach 15% in Q4 2023 and gradually increase to 20% in 2024, while the ONVO brand aims for a gross margin of 10% [4][10]. - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted, with expected revenues of RMB 66.1 billion and RMB 102.0 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 19% and 54% [6][12]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a sales multiple of 0.8x to NIO's 2025 automotive and other sales, leading to a target price of $5.5 for the US stock and HKD 42.6 for the Hong Kong stock [5][15]. - The current price-to-sales ratio for NIO is 0.7x, indicating an attractive valuation [3][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for NIO is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - NIO's main brand requires a boost in sales momentum, with expectations for significant contributions from its budget sub-brands in 2025. Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards to 65.9 billion, 87.6 billion, and 93.4 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 33%, and 7% respectively. Non-GAAP net losses for the same period are projected to be -18.8 billion, -15.8 billion, and -14.5 billion CNY, with adjusted EPS of -9.2, -7.6, and -6.9 CNY [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, NIO reported revenue of 18.67 billion CNY, a 7% quarter-on-quarter increase, but below Bloomberg consensus expectations of 19.19 billion CNY. The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles decreased by 1.2% to 270,000 CNY due to increased promotions. Gross margin improved by 1.0 percentage points to 10.7%, driven by a 0.9 percentage point increase in automotive gross margin to 13.1% due to lower material costs [7] Sales and Delivery Outlook - NIO's guidance for Q4 2024 indicates a delivery target of 72,000 to 75,000 vehicles. The delivery of the budget sub-brand L60 is expected to ramp up, with 4,300 units delivered in October and a target of 10,000 units in December. The main brand's sales momentum is anticipated to rely on the refresh of older models, while the budget sub-brand is expected to drive overall sales growth in 2025 [8] Market Positioning - The product lineup for NIO in 2025 will include the luxury sedan ET9, two family SUVs from the L60 sub-brand, and the first model from the new budget brand Firefly. This comprehensive product matrix aims to cover price ranges from 150,000 to 800,000 CNY. The main brand's sales are expected to rebound with the refresh of existing models, while the new sub-brands are projected to stabilize production and increase volume [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO Inc. (蔚来汽车) with a target price of HKD 59.88, indicating a potential upside of 64.5% from the current price of HKD 36.40 [4][12]. Core Insights - NIO's fourth-quarter sales guidance is below expectations, with anticipated deliveries of 72,000 to 75,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.9% to 49.9%. Revenue guidance for the fourth quarter is set between RMB 196.8 billion and RMB 203.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.0% to 19.2% [2][3]. - The decline in average selling price (ASP) is more significant than expected, with the ASP dropping to RMB 270,000, below market expectations and previous guidance of RMB 280,000 for the third quarter. This is attributed to increased promotional efforts by NIO [1][2]. - The report highlights that revenue for the third quarter is expected to be RMB 18.7 billion, slightly below expectations, with a gross margin of 10.7%, which is slightly above market expectations. The automotive gross margin improved to 13.1% due to lower battery costs and increased sales volume [1][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, NIO's revenue is projected to reach RMB 62.847 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.0%. However, net losses are expected to be RMB 16.867 billion, with a core loss per share of RMB 9.92 [7][15]. - The report indicates that NIO's sales and R&D expenses increased by 9.4% and 3.1% respectively, with sales expenses surpassing RMB 40 billion for the first time due to channel expansion and promotional activities [1][3]. - The report anticipates that the growth in sales volume next year will primarily come from the launch of new models under the NIO brand and the introduction of the lower-priced sub-brand, Firefly [2][3].

Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2024 reached RMB 18.6735 billion (USD 2.661 billion), a decrease of 2.1% year-over-year and an increase of 7.0% quarter-over-quarter[9]. - Automotive sales revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 16.6976 billion (USD 2.3794 billion), down 4.1% year-over-year and up 6.5% quarter-over-quarter[12]. - Gross profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 2.0074 billion (USD 286 million), an increase of 31.8% year-over-year and 18.9% quarter-over-quarter[12]. - Operating loss for Q3 2024 was RMB 5.2378 billion (USD 746 million), an increase of 8.1% year-over-year and 0.5% quarter-over-quarter[11]. - The net loss for Q3 2024 was 5.0597 billion RMB (721 million USD), up 11.0% year-over-year and 0.3% from Q2 2024[25]. - R&D expenses for Q3 2024 were 3.3187 billion RMB (472.9 million USD), up 9.2% year-over-year and 3.1% from Q2 2024[23]. - The adjusted net loss (non-GAAP) for the quarter was RMB 4,412,622, compared to RMB 4,535,230 in the previous quarter[55]. Vehicle Deliveries - Vehicle deliveries in Q3 2024 amounted to 61,855 units, representing an 11.6% increase compared to Q3 2023 and a 7.8% increase compared to Q2 2024[7]. - In October 2024, the company delivered 20,976 vehicles, bringing total deliveries for the year to 170,257 units[13]. - The company expects Q4 2024 vehicle deliveries to be between 72,000 and 75,000 units, representing a year-over-year growth of approximately 43.9% to 49.9%[29]. - In Q3 2024, the company delivered a record 61,855 smart electric vehicles, maintaining over 40% market share in China's electric vehicle market priced above 300,000 RMB[17]. Gross Margin and Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 10.7%, compared to 8.0% in Q3 2023 and 9.7% in Q2 2024[9]. - The automotive gross margin for Q3 2024 improved to 13.1%, compared to 11.0% in Q3 2023 and 12.2% in Q2 2024[21]. - The total sales cost for the quarter was RMB 16,666,155, compared to RMB 15,757,253 in the previous quarter[55]. Strategic Developments - A strategic investment agreement was signed on September 29, 2024, involving a total cash injection of RMB 330 million from strategic investors into NIO China[16]. - The launch of the L60 model under the LeTao brand occurred on September 19, 2024, with production and delivery steadily increasing since late September[14]. - NIO's strategic focus includes maintaining sufficient vehicle bookings and sales while controlling operational costs[33]. Future Outlook - NIO's future outlook includes ongoing technological innovations and product development to meet evolving market demands[33]. - The company aims to expand its manufacturing capacity and enhance customer energy solutions, including battery swapping and subscription services[33]. - The company will hold an earnings conference call on November 20, 2024, to discuss performance and future guidance[30]. Cash and Assets - As of September 30, 2024, cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term deposits totaled RMB 42.2 billion (USD 6 billion)[11]. - As of September 30, 2024, the unaudited consolidated balance sheet shows total assets in RMB, with specific figures to be disclosed in the earnings call[41]. - Total assets increased to RMB 117,383,202, up from RMB 103,989,017, indicating strong asset growth[45]. - Cash and cash equivalents stood at RMB 32,935,111, compared to RMB 23,791,903 in the previous quarter, reflecting improved liquidity[45]. Company Overview - NIO Group is a pioneer and leader in the global smart electric vehicle market, established in November 2014, with a mission to create a sustainable and better future[32]. - The company focuses on high-end smart electric vehicles under the NIO brand and family-oriented smart electric vehicles under the Lada brand[32]. - NIO utilizes non-GAAP financial metrics such as adjusted operating loss and adjusted net loss to assess operational performance and inform financial decisions[35]. - The company emphasizes the importance of understanding non-GAAP financial indicators alongside GAAP metrics for a comprehensive evaluation of its performance[36].