智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，下调对小鹏汽车-W(09868)的2025年销量预测1%，但将2026 及27年预测分别上调3%及5%; 将2025年非通用会计准则净亏损预测由10.94亿元下调至8.84亿元，同时 将2026及27年非通用会计准则净利润分别下调20%及9%。该行对小鹏港股目标价由105港元升至109港 元，美股(XPEV.US)目标价由27美元升至28美元，反映销量预测上调，重申"买入"评级，看好2026年强 劲的产品布局。 小鹏第三季收入达200亿元人民币(下同)，同比及按季分别增长102%及12%，大致符合该行预期。综合 毛利率为20.1%，同比及按季上升4.8及2.8个百分点，好过该行预期的17.7%。整车利润率为13.1%，同 比升4.5个百分点，按季跌1.2个百分点，主要因清库存而进行促销。期内非通用会计准则净亏损1.52亿 元，好过该行预期的净亏损3.98亿元。展望第四季，小鹏管理层预期交付量为12.5万至13.2万辆，同比 增长37%至44%，收入为215亿至230亿元，同比增长34%至43%。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 122.71 [6][14]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of RMB 20.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 120%, and a net loss of RMB 3.8 billion, narrowing losses by 79% year-on-year [1][4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 reached 20.1%, marking a significant improvement due to scale effects and cost control measures [2][4]. - The company is optimistic about its growth prospects in Q4 2025 and 2026, driven by multiple growth avenues including "dual energy + AI + robotics + external collaborations" [1][4]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was RMB 20.4 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% and a year-on-year increase of 102% [1][19]. - The gross margin improved to 20.1%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, with vehicle gross margin at 13.1% [2][19]. - The company expects Q4 2025 deliveries to be between 125,000 and 132,000 units, projecting revenue of RMB 21.5 to 23 billion [2][19]. Business Segments - The automotive sales segment is projected to generate RMB 118 billion in revenue for 2026, with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.95x [4][11]. - The humanoid robot business is valued at approximately RMB 40 billion, with significant advancements in humanoid capabilities expected by the end of 2026 [4][11]. - The Robotaxi business is estimated to be worth RMB 33 billion, with plans to launch three models by 2026 [4][11]. Market Position and Collaborations - The company is set to launch the new X9 super range extender vehicle, which is expected to achieve high sales volumes due to its advanced features [2][4]. - Collaboration with Volkswagen is anticipated to enhance revenue through technology service fees and new model launches [4][13]. Valuation - The overall market capitalization of the company is estimated at approximately RMB 215 billion, with a target price adjustment to HKD 122.71 [4][14]. - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, considering automotive sales, robotics, and Robotaxi businesses [4][11].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced declines, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 0.69%, reaching a new low since early September. The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.38% and 0.26%, respectively [1][2]. Technology Sector - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with Xiaomi dropping nearly 5%, Kuaishou down over 1%, and slight declines in JD.com, Meituan, Baidu, and Tencent. Alibaba saw an increase of over 1% [2][4][5]. New Energy Vehicle Sector - Stocks in the new energy vehicle sector fell, including Li Auto, NIO, Chery, Beijing Automotive, BYD, and Leap Motor [6]. Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks experienced declines, with companies like Shanghai Fudan, Jingmen Semiconductor, and Zhongxing Communications reporting losses [7][8]. Gold Sector - Gold stocks led the market gains, with China Gold International rising over 8%. Other gold-related stocks also saw increases, driven by expectations of significant gold purchases by global central banks [9][10]. Military Industry - Military stocks performed well, with China Shipbuilding Industry rising over 9%. Analysts expect the military industry to enter an upward cycle, supported by recent quarterly reports indicating a narrowing decline in performance [11][12]. Oil Sector - Oil stocks saw an uptick, with China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation increasing nearly 3%. This rise is attributed to recent increases in crude oil futures prices [13]. Lithium Battery Sector - Lithium battery stocks gained, with Tianqi Lithium rising nearly 3%. The market for lithium carbonate has shown significant recovery, with prices expected to rise further due to increasing demand [15][16]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market due to weak macro liquidity and corporate earnings forecasts. Investors are advised to wait for clearer signals from U.S. monetary policy and mainland economic data before seeking rebound opportunities [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with total revenue reaching 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [8] - The automotive sales revenue was 18.05 billion yuan, up 105.3% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter, driven by the growth in new model deliveries [8] - The net loss for Q3 narrowed to 380 million yuan from 480 million yuan in Q2, with a non-GAAP net loss of 150 million yuan [8] - The overall gross margin improved to 20.1%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8] - The company is advancing its AI business across four dimensions, including smart driving, Robotaxi, robotics, and flying cars, with clear implementation timelines [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 78.5 billion, 140.2 billion, and 201.0 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 92%, 79%, and 43% respectively [8] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised to -1.4 billion, 5.4 billion, and 9.5 billion yuan [8] - The EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be -0.71, 2.81, and 4.99 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26 and 15 times for 2026 and 2027 respectively [8]

Core Insights - The recent performance of electric vehicle manufacturers, particularly Xiaopeng and Li Auto, has raised concerns in the market, leading to significant stock price declines following their earnings reports [1][2][4] - The automotive industry is expected to undergo changes due to the reintroduction of vehicle purchase tax for electric vehicles starting in 2026, which may affect consumer choices and market dynamics [5][6][7] Company Performance - Xiaopeng Motors reported a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan for Q3, a year-on-year increase of nearly 100%, but incurred a net loss of 380 million yuan, although this loss narrowed compared to previous periods [2][3] - Li Auto achieved a revenue of 19.45 billion yuan in Q3, nearly doubling year-on-year, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, but experienced an 8% decline in net profit compared to the previous quarter [2][3] - Geely's Q3 revenue reached 89.2 billion yuan, a 27% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.82 billion yuan, up 59% year-on-year, and total sales of 761,000 units, a 43% increase [3] Market Dynamics - Xiaopeng's stock price fell by 10.47% to 85.85 HKD, marking a cumulative decline of over 20% since November 12, while Geely's stock fell by 1.16% to 17 HKD, resulting in a market capitalization of 172 billion HKD [2] - The average selling price of Xiaopeng vehicles decreased by 0.8 million yuan to 156,000 yuan, with a gross margin of 13.1%, slightly below market expectations [3] - The automotive sector is experiencing a weak performance overall, with concerns about declining sales data and the impact of upcoming policy changes on growth rates [4][6] Future Outlook - The reintroduction of the vehicle purchase tax in 2026 is expected to slow down the growth of the passenger vehicle market, potentially leading to increased promotional activities among electric vehicle manufacturers [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the automotive industry will see a differentiation among companies, with stronger competitors likely to emerge as the market adjusts to the new tax environment [6][7]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 11 19 年 月 日 小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） 看好强势产品周期，物理 AI 商业化推进中 25Q3 主业盈利承压，技术合作超预期。公司 Q3 交付 11.6 万辆汽车，同比大增 149%，带动收入同比增长 102% 至 203.8 亿元。其中，汽车销售收入/服务及其他销售收入分别为 181/23 亿元，同比增长 105%/78%。服务及其 他收入增长主要系：1）售后服务收入增长；2）向汽车 OEM 提供的技术研发服务收入增长，根据协议，Q3 已成 功达成若干里程碑。盈利性方面，公司 Q3 整体实现了 20.1%的毛利率，同比/环比分别提升 4.9pct/2.8pct。其 中，汽车销售/服务及其他毛利率分别为 13.1%/74.6%。汽车毛利率环比下降 1.2pct，主要是由于 1）低毛利率 的 Mona M03 销售占比提升，2）产品换代。公司 Q3 研发/销管费用分别为 24.3/24.9 亿元，同比和环比均有所 增加，主要是由于扩充产品组合、与新车型及技术开发相关的开支增加、销量上升带动特许经营店支付的佣金增 加、营销及广告开支增 ...

大和发表报告指，受惠新车销售与技术服务的强劲增长，小鹏汽车第三季营收按年增长102%至204亿 元；毛利率达20.1%，较去年同期提升4.8个百分点，较上季提升2.8个百分点，净利润为3.81亿元。公司 目标于2025年第四季达成盈亏平衡。由于毛利率持续改善，且在无人驾驶出租车与类人机器人领域竞争 力增强，该行将其评级由"持有"升至"买入"，美股目标价由24美元上调至29美元。 ...

11月18日，刚刚发布了三季度财报的小鹏汽车（9868.HK）公布了一则人事任命，董事会宣布陈玉东将 出任公司独立非执行董事，该项任命自2026年1月1日起正式生效。 公告显示，陈玉东于1998年加入德尔福汽车零部件集团，历任大中华区总工程师、商务总监及事业部中 国区总经理。2007年加入博世集团，曾任汽油机系统部高级副总裁，并于2008年5月至2023年12月先后 担任博世（中国）投资有限公司的执行副总裁及总裁。目前，他担任福然德股份有限公司独立董事，并 曾担任无锡威孚高科技集团股份有限公司董事。 （文章来源：中国经营报） 彼时，陈玉东在朋友圈发文回应表示："刀是真的，送刀的人是好兄弟，不是为降价，当时他觉得我太 多事太纠结，叫我快刀斩乱麻。" 此外，技术出身的陈玉东常在接受媒体采访时输出独到观点：流血"掀桌子"不可取，未来10年中国将出 现本土的"博世"；我一直给公司和董事会建议，不要小瞧中国的本土供应商；汽车零部件竞争非常激烈 残酷，是一个哪怕一分钱都要争的产业。陈玉东还曾表示，由于竞争太残酷，市场份额要远远重要于盈 利，特别是在中国市场。 值得一提的是，陈玉东曾收到吉利零部件采购公司总经理送的一把刻有 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xpeng Motors (09868, XPEV.US) reported a record high gross margin of 20.1% in Q3 this year, benefiting from an increase in service and technology revenue share and economies of scale [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company maintained a target price of HKD 134.69 and a "Buy" investment rating [1] - The anticipated high growth in sales is supported by new vehicle upgrades, mass production of the dual-energy platform, and the widespread adoption of intelligent driving features [1] - The company is expected to achieve profitability in Q4, with improvements in average selling price and gross margin projected to outperform peers over the next two years [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Xpeng Motors is actively investing in AI chips, autonomous driving, low-altitude economy, RoboTaxi, and humanoid robots to enhance its valuation and long-term growth potential [1]

随着新车换代、一车双能平台量产以及智驾功能的全面普及，该行预计集团销量有望维持高位增长，第 四季盈利具可实现性。该行同时预计，小鹏汽车今明两年平均单价及毛利的改善弹性将优于同业。集团 亦在AI晶片、自主智驾、低空经济、RoboTaxi及人形机器人方向持续布局，提升估值中枢与长期增长 性。 交银国际发布研报称，小鹏汽车-W(09868,XPEV.US)今年第三季受惠于服务及技术收入占比提升与规模 效应，集团综合毛利率录得20.1%，创历史新高。该行维持对小鹏汽车目标价134.69港元及"买入"的投 资评级。 ...