2024年重点城市代建渗透率达6.6%创四年新高, 结合代建发展长远前景来看，仍有继续提升的空间。 ◎ 文 / 谢杨春、吴嘉茗 随着房地产市场进入深度调整期，代建凭借其轻资产、专业化的优势，呈现快速发展的趋势。根据CRIC数据，2023年以来重点城市 新开盘（首开 同下）中代建项目透率迅速提升，尤其是二线城市格外明显。结合代建发展长远前景来看，仍有继续提升的空间。 2024年代建渗透率达6.6%创四年峰值 01 2025一季度因供应紧缺回落至3.3% 近期CRIC统计了32个城市销售项目的代建情况，整体来看，重点城市代建渗透率保持逐年攀升态势，与发达国家较高的代建渗透率 相比，我们认为未来还大有可提升空间。 值得注意的是，一线城市不仅代建比例低，且项目多以远郊刚需盘为主，而代建方基本是头部的代建企业。诸如2024年广州开盘的 典型代建项目绿城·揽江印月来看，代建方是绿城管理，委托方为广州市番禺交通建设投资有限公司。位置上，绿城·揽江印月则在环 城高速外，是板块内刚需项目。 实际上，2023年正是代建项目集中入市的分水岭。 2020年及以前代建项目渗透率极低，不超过0.5%。2021年、2022年比例也低于1% ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction agency industry is transitioning from a "blue ocean" to a "red ocean," indicating increased competition and a potential shakeout in 2025, characterized by low prices, low profits, and high elimination rates [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The construction agency industry experienced a "high-speed growth period" from 2022 to 2024, with new area additions reaching 1.1 million square meters in 2022, 1.7 million square meters in 2023 (a 53% increase), and 2.2 million square meters in 2024, although growth rates are declining [2] - Predictions for 2025 suggest a shift to a "low growth" phase, with some leaders forecasting stagnation or slight declines compared to 2024 [2] - The top 20 construction agencies saw a mere 6% increase in new signed areas in Q1 2025, a significant drop from the 17% growth in 2024 [2] Group 2: Profitability Challenges - Increased competition has led to a decline in profit margins, with agency fees dropping from 5-6% to 2-3%, and some projects even going below 2% [3][4] - The overall demand for construction services is slowing due to a downturn in the real estate market, with land transfer areas decreasing and new construction area growth slowing to 3% in 2024 [3] - The rising proportion of low-fee government construction orders is further compressing industry profit margins [4] Group 3: Market Segmentation and Competition - The industry is experiencing significant segmentation, with a saturation of over 100 players, leading to a "head slowdown, middle acceleration, and tail elimination" dynamic [5][6] - In 2024, the top five agencies signed 1.783 million square meters (up 3.5%), while the middle tier (6-20) grew by 21.9% [6] - The tail end of the market is under severe pressure, with some agencies failing to secure new projects in Q1 2025 [6] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite current challenges, the construction agency market is not saturated, with a potential growth space of 50% as the market recovers from a downturn [7] - The penetration rate of construction agencies in China is around 12%, significantly lower than the 25-30% in mature markets, indicating room for growth [7] - The future of the industry may mirror that of mature markets, with a focus on separating investment and development, and a potential for higher market concentration among leading firms [8] Group 5: Future Survivors in the Industry - The future landscape will likely favor three types of survivors: comprehensive leading firms, specialized niche players, and regionally focused companies [16][18] - The head agencies are expected to thrive due to their comprehensive capabilities and national reach, while mid-tier firms face a binary choice of either rising to the top or being marginalized [19] - The leading firms are projected to increase their market share to around 50% in the long term, despite short-term fluctuations [20][24]

Core Insights - Greentown Management Holdings Limited, known as the "first stock in construction agency," reported a revenue of 3.441 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [2] - The company's gross profit was 1.706 billion yuan, showing a decline of 1.0% compared to the previous year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 800 million yuan, down 17.7% year-on-year [2] Business Performance - As of the end of 2024, Greentown Management has established construction agency projects in 130 major cities across 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China [2] - The total contracted project area reached 12.56 million square meters, an increase of 5.0% from the previous year [2] - The area under construction was 53.96 million square meters, up 2.9% year-on-year [2] - The estimated total saleable value of contracted projects was 720.1 billion yuan, accounting for 77.3% of the overall saleable value, remaining stable compared to the previous year [2] Revenue Breakdown - Commercial construction agency services were the largest source of revenue and profit for Greentown Management, generating 2.753 billion yuan, a rise of 17.3% year-on-year, and accounting for 80% of total revenue [2] - Government construction agency revenue reached 626 million yuan, making up 18.2% of total revenue [2] New Project Development - In 2024, Greentown Management expanded its new project contracted area to 36.5 million square meters, reflecting a growth of approximately 3.4% compared to 2023 [3] - The estimated construction fees for new projects were 9.32 billion yuan, which is a decrease of about 10.1% year-on-year [3] - The company noted that despite a 5% decline in new contract area across the construction agency industry, it managed to maintain positive growth [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that private enterprises are gradually regaining confidence in the real estate market, as evidenced by a 10% increase in land acquisition share over the past three years and the initiation of over nine major projects in the construction service sector [1][4][8] - In the recent land auction, private real estate companies have shown a strong presence, with local firm Dongyu Development acquiring residential land in the Leiliu East Expansion Area, indicating a trend of private enterprises returning to the market [1][4] - The data shows that from 2022 to 2024, the number of land acquisitions by private enterprises in the city has increased significantly, contributing to the innovation of residential products in Foshan [1][4] Group 2 - The private sector is not only active in land acquisition but is also making strides in the emerging construction service sector, with seven out of nine recent projects being awarded to private firms, highlighting their dominance in this area [4][5] - Green City Management has emerged as the leading company in terms of the number of projects won in the construction service sector, reflecting the growing trend of private enterprises engaging in this business model [4][5] - The construction service model is seen as a light-asset development approach that helps private firms mitigate market cycle pressures, with a net profit margin of over 25% compared to the traditional real estate development model's average gross profit margin of around 10% [5][8] Group 3 - The real estate market in Foshan is showing signs of recovery, with a peak in transactions in March that surpassed last year's "golden September" levels, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [8][11] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 17% increase in land supply in Foshan, with high-quality land parcels being made available, which could lead to the development of high-premium products [8][11] - Current real estate policies are favorable, with adjustments in down payment ratios and public housing loan policies, creating a conducive environment for market growth [8][11]

绿城管理在新拓项目、总订单储备、交付规模、代建收入等指标中始终保持行业龙头地位。布局加速向高能级城市倾斜、订单结构优化进一步提升企业抗 风险能力。 竞争加剧下，企业净利润、利润率有所下滑，盈利难度攀升。下半年绿城管理采取一系列改革和能力提升，部分经营指标有了明显止跌回稳趋势。 ◎ 作者 / 谢杨春、吴嘉茗 核 心 观 点 【 规模稳中有进稳固龙头地位，结构升维驱动市占率扩张】 代建行业整体规模增速放缓、竞争加剧的背景下，绿城管理新拓规模仍稳中有进，维持行业领 先地位。2024年新拓代建项目总面积3649万平方米，同比微涨3.4%，新拓项目代建费用（估算）为93.05亿元，同比下降10.3%；顺应市场周期变化， 2024年绿城管理新拓结构较2023年发生了明显的变化，私营企业首次超过政府和国企，成为了第一大委托方。 【 订单底仓充实保障未来业绩增长，项目运营与交付效率双提升】 绿城管理2024年末在建面积53.96百万平方米，同比增加3%；可售货值9321亿元，订 单底仓充实；一二线城市占总建筑面积的44.0%，四大核心城市圈占比76.6%，抗风险能力进一步提升；商业代建建筑面积9570万平方米，占比达 76. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.44 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 17.7% to 801 million yuan [1][4]. - The competitive landscape in the construction agency industry is intensifying, leading to a decrease in construction fees and profit margins [1][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company retains a market share of 22.1% in new contracts, maintaining its leading position in the construction agency market [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue is projected at 3.44 billion yuan, with commercial construction revenue at 2.75 billion yuan (up 17.3%) and government construction revenue at 626 million yuan (down 20.6%) [1]. - The gross profit margin for commercial construction is expected to be 51.2% (down 1.1 percentage points), while for government construction, it is projected at 40.1% (down 5.1 percentage points), leading to an overall gross margin of 49.6% (down 2.6 percentage points) [1][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company signed new construction contracts covering an area of 36.5 million square meters in 2024, a 3.4% increase, but the new contract value decreased by 10.1% to 9.32 billion yuan, with a new contract price of 255 yuan per square meter (down 13.1%) [2]. - The company’s project distribution is increasingly focused on first- and second-tier cities, which now account for 58% of new projects [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 60%, with a proposed final dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, totaling 482 million yuan [3][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.57 billion yuan, 3.65 billion yuan, and 3.59 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 768 million yuan, 812 million yuan, and 866 million yuan [4][5].

2024 年公司营收同比+4.2%，归母净利润同比-17.7%。2024 年公司实现 营收 34.4 亿元（+4.2%，同比变化，下同），其中商业代建收入 27.5 亿元 （+17.3%），政府代建收入 6.26 亿元（-20.6%）。公司 2024 年实现归母净利 润 8.01 亿元（-17.7%）。主要由于代建行业竞争加剧，代建费率下行，期内公 司商业代建毛利率为 51.2%（-1.1pct），政府代建毛利率为 40.1%（-5.1pct）， 拖累公司整体毛利率至 49.6%（-2.6pct）。同时，因房地产行业持续调整，公 司委托方销售受到影响，进而影响项目建设速度与公司账款回收的情况，公司 期末合同资产为 13.4 亿元（+51.0%），贸易及其他应收款为 11.2 亿元 （+35.9%）。 公司新拓金额、单价出现一定下滑，区域结构、委托方结构有所优化。2024 年公司新拓代建合约面积 3650 万方（+3.4%），新拓代建项目代建费 93.2 亿 元（-10.1%），新拓单价 255 元/平方米（-13.1%）。虽然新拓金额、单价下 滑，但公司 2024 年新签市占率 22.1%，继续保持代建市场龙 ...

1、一季度新增TOP20总量同比增6%，绿城管理、旭辉建管、润地管理领跑 | ◎ 克而瑞研究中心 | | --- | | PART1 榜单发布 | 新拓规模TOP5集中度超过五成，较去年同期下降7个百分点 0 2 2、新拓规模TOP5集中度超过五成，较去年同期下降7个百分点 3、超过半数企业新拓面积同比增长，呈现"头部稳健、腰部发力"格局 4、品牌传播力保持强者恒强，AI、科技赋能代建业务成各家企业突破口 一季度新增TOP20总量同比增6%，绿城管理、旭辉建管、润地管理领跑 0 1 PART2 榜单解读 2025年一季度，代建新增规模TOP20企业新增签约建面4534万平方米，同比增加6%，较2024年全行业17% 的增速进一步放缓，竞争仍十分激烈，代建项目获取难度不断增加。 按一季度新增建面分布来看，绿城管理仍然以"断层"优势保持龙头地位，一季度新拓面积几乎是第二名2 倍。有3家企业新增建面超过300万平方米，分别是旭辉建管、润地管理、蓝城集团，基本以政府代建项目 新拓为主，其中旭辉建管一季度政府代建比例达到56%，润地管理政府新签规模约301万平方米。另，有6 家房企新增建面位于200-300万区间，包括 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 18% to 800 million yuan due to a decrease in gross margin and credit impairment provisions of approximately 100 million yuan [1][3][9] - The company has seen a 17% increase in commercial construction revenue, which now accounts for 80% of total revenue, while government construction revenue has decreased by 21% [1][9] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 49.6%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous year, with commercial and government construction margins at 51% and 40%, respectively [1][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 800 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 18% [1][3][4] - The gross margin is projected to be 49.6%, with a decrease in both commercial and government construction margins [1][9] Market Position and Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company operates in 130 cities with a total contracted construction area of 130 million square meters, a 5% year-on-year increase [2][13] - The new signed construction area for 2024 is 36.49 million square meters, with a market share of 22.1%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous year [2][13] Investment Recommendations - Due to the shrinking demand for government construction and increased competition in the construction industry, revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 3.6 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan, and 800 million yuan for both years, respectively [3][18] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 is 0.41 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.7 and 6.5 times [3][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, with a focus on financially stable and well-performing leading companies [2]. Core Views - Recent government policies have been implemented to support the real estate market, including the cancellation of sales restrictions in Nanjing and adjustments to down payment ratios in Tianjin, which are expected to stimulate demand [7][17]. - The real estate market is experiencing structural differentiation, with new home sales declining while second-hand home sales show slight resilience [7][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading real estate companies that can effectively navigate market fluctuations, such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Mixc Life [7][19]. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.9%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.37%, indicating that the sector outperformed the broader market by 0.47% [3][13]. - The total market capitalization of the real estate sector is approximately 1,034.3 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 995.5 billion yuan [8]. Industry Fundamentals Primary Market Analysis - In the week of March 28 to April 3, a total of 31,221 new homes were sold across 38 key cities, representing a year-on-year decline of 33.7% and a month-on-month decline of 15% [5][21]. - The total transaction area for new homes was 3.821 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 27.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 5.9% [5][21]. Secondary Market Analysis - During the same week, 22,398 second-hand homes were sold in 16 key cities, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 10.7% [32]. - The total transaction area for second-hand homes was 2.178 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.5% [32]. Inventory Situation - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 186.291 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% and a depletion cycle of 156.6 weeks [45][52]. Land Market Analysis - In the week of March 24 to March 30, land supply reached 21.186 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, while the average supply price was 2,715 yuan per square meter, up 223.2% year-on-year [53]. - Land transactions totaled 23.359 million square meters, with a transaction amount of 62.15 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.4% [53].