事件描述 公司发布2024 年年报以及2025 年一季报：2024 年公司实现营业收入248.82 亿元，同比增长6.05%；实 现归母净利润82.97 亿元，同比增长8.63%。2025 年一季度公司实现营业收入53.85 亿元，同比增长 21.84%；实现归母净利润15.08 亿元，同比增长41.56%。 事件评论 装机扩张电量提升，全年业绩稳健增长。2024 年全年来看，来水同比略有改善，叠加TB电站投产以及 新能源装机规模持续扩张的带动，公司全年完成发电量1120.12 亿千瓦时，同比增加4.62%。电价方 面，由于云南省电力供需持续趋紧，公司2024 年综合结算电价达到0.22257 元/千瓦时，同比增长 0.66%。在量价齐升的带动下，公司2024 年实现营业收入248.82 亿元，同比增长6.05%。但由于新机组 投产带动2024 年折旧费用同比提升，全年毛利率实现56.13%，同比减少0.23 个百分点。同时，公司持 续推进对高利率存量贷款的置换，综合融资成本较上年同比下降，财务费用进一步降低至26.75 亿元， 同比减少2.04%；此外，2024 年公司研发费用同比减少19.49%，投资收益 ...

1Q25 水电电量同比+31%，梯级蓄能调节增发，缓解电价压力。公司1Q25 水电电量显著提升，一方面 来自于年初澜沧江梯级蓄能同比增加释放蓄能，另一方面得益于托巴水电站的电量贡献。拆分来看，澜 上五厂发电量同比+8.6%，小湾/糯扎渡分别同比+12.5%/+76%。此外，我们测得1Q25 综合电价同 比-7%，电量增发缓解电价压力发展趋势 随着西藏项目开工，我们预计公司在2026-2030 年进入资本开支高峰期。我们预计公司在建硬梁包水电 站预计2025 年内完成投产；此外澜沧江上游西藏段的古水、班达、古学、班多等常规水电正在陆续核 准建设，我们预计2026-2030 年资本开支将持续增长，可能在2028 年后超过300 亿元。 盈利预测与估值 我们对于2025 年公司水电电价和汛期来水更加谨慎，因此下调2025E 归母净利润4.8%至93.3 亿元，同 比+12.5%。同时引入2026 年盈利预测，我们预计2026 年营业收入281 亿元，同比+2.8%，归母净利润 94.6 亿元，同比+1.4%。考虑到市场风险偏好变化提升估值，我们维持10.36 元目标价不变，较当前股 价上行空间为10%，维持"跑赢行 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 6.05% year-on-year, reaching 24.882 billion yuan, driven by a 4.62% increase in power generation and a 0.66% rise in electricity prices. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 8.297 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.63% year-on-year increase [2][6]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company anticipates a significant revenue increase of 21.84% year-on-year, amounting to 5.385 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.508 billion yuan, representing a 41.56% year-on-year growth [2][6]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with financial expenses decreasing by 2.04% in 2024 and 5.00% in the first quarter of 2025 [2][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a total revenue of 24.882 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 8.297 billion yuan. For Q1 2025, the revenue is 5.385 billion yuan, and the net profit is 1.508 billion yuan [6][12]. Power Generation and Pricing - The total power generation for 2024 is expected to be 112.012 billion kWh, a 4.62% increase year-on-year. The average electricity price is projected to reach 0.22257 yuan/kWh, up 0.66% from the previous year [12]. - In Q1 2025, the company anticipates a power generation increase of 31.22% year-on-year, totaling 21.292 billion kWh, driven by strong demand and optimized scheduling [12]. Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced financial expenses, with a decrease of 2.04% in 2024 and 5.00% in Q1 2025. R&D expenses also saw a reduction of 19.49% in 2024 [12][2]. Future Earnings Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.50 yuan, 0.52 yuan, and 0.54 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19.04, 18.27, and 17.62 [12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Recommended" due to sufficient growth potential in installed capacity and long-term value [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.88 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.30 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant revenue increase of 21.84% year-on-year, reaching 5.39 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.51 billion yuan, up 41.56% year-on-year [3]. - The growth in power generation is driven by new energy installed capacity, new hydropower stations coming online, optimized scheduling of the Lancang River cascade, and increased domestic electricity demand [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 24.88 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.30 billion yuan, with a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.46 yuan [3][7]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.93 billion yuan, 9.99 billion yuan, and 10.34 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.50 yuan, 0.55 yuan, and 0.57 yuan [6][7]. Installed Capacity and Generation - As of the end of 2024, the company had an installed capacity of 31.01 million kilowatts, including 27.31 million kilowatts from hydropower and 3.70 million kilowatts from new energy sources [4]. - The total power generation for 2024 was 112.01 billion kilowatt-hours, a 4.6% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from both large and small hydropower stations [4]. Future Growth Prospects - The TB hydropower station, with a total installed capacity of 1.4 million kilowatts, is expected to generate approximately 6.23 billion kilowatt-hours annually, contributing to future growth [5]. - The company plans to raise up to 6 billion yuan to fund the construction of new hydropower stations, indicating a positive outlook for long-term economic benefits [5]. Pricing and Cost Management - The average on-grid electricity price for Q1 2025 was 0.253 yuan per kilowatt-hour, reflecting a slight decline due to increased renewable energy capacity and market price fluctuations [6]. - The company has optimized its debt financing structure, resulting in a decrease in financial expenses and improved profitability [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Recommended" due to sufficient growth potential in installed capacity and long-term value [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.88 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.30 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant revenue increase of 21.84% year-on-year, reaching 5.39 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.51 billion yuan, up 41.56% year-on-year [3]. - The growth in power generation is driven by new energy installed capacity, new hydropower stations coming online, and increased electricity demand in Yunnan [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 24.88 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.30 billion yuan and a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.46 yuan [3][7]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.93 billion yuan, 9.99 billion yuan, and 10.34 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.50 yuan, 0.55 yuan, and 0.57 yuan [6][7]. Installed Capacity and Generation - As of the end of 2024, the company had an installed capacity of 31.01 million kilowatts, including 27.31 million kilowatts from hydropower and 3.70 million kilowatts from new energy sources [4]. - The total power generation in 2024 was 112.01 billion kilowatt-hours, a 4.6% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from new energy sources [4][5]. Future Growth Potential - The TB hydropower station, with a total installed capacity of 1.4 million kilowatts, is expected to generate approximately 6.23 billion kilowatt-hours annually, contributing to future growth [5]. - The company plans to raise up to 6 billion yuan for the construction of new hydropower stations, indicating a positive long-term economic outlook [5]. Pricing and Revenue Structure - The average on-grid electricity price for Q1 2025 was 0.253 yuan/kWh, reflecting a decrease of nearly 2 cents year-on-year, influenced by increased new energy capacity and market price fluctuations [6]. - The company's electricity revenue accounted for 99.15% of total revenue, highlighting its reliance on power generation for income [6].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 24.882 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.297 billion yuan, up 8.63% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.464 billion yuan, a 2.65% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.071 billion yuan, growing 14.68% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.385 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 21.84%, and a net profit of 1.508 billion yuan, up 41.56% year-on-year [1] Generation and Capacity - In 2024, the company generated 1120.12 billion kWh of electricity, a 4.62% increase year-on-year, with grid electricity reaching 1110.24 billion kWh, up 4.51% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the company generated 212.92 billion kWh, a substantial year-on-year increase of 31.22%, with grid electricity at 211.04 billion kWh, up 31.42% year-on-year [2] - The growth in generation was driven by an increase in new energy installations, full capacity operation of TB power station, optimized hydropower storage, and increased electricity demand in Yunnan province [2] Pricing and Dividends - In Q1 2025, the average grid electricity price slightly decreased to 0.255 yuan/kWh, down 2.01 cents from Q1 2024, representing a 7.3% year-on-year decline [3] - The net profit per kWh attributable to shareholders increased to 7.15 cents, up 0.51 cents from Q1 2024, marking a 7.71% year-on-year increase [3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.20 yuan per share for 2024, totaling 3.6 billion yuan, which is 43.39% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3] Profit Forecast - The company adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 9.304 billion yuan, 9.427 billion yuan, and 9.720 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.2, 18.0, and 17.5 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 11.48 RMB [7][10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.882 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.297 billion RMB, up 8.63% year-on-year [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.385 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.84%, and a net profit of 1.508 billion RMB, up 41.56% year-on-year, primarily due to increased energy storage release and the full capacity operation of TB hydropower station [1][2]. - The company’s dividend per share (DPS) for 2024 is 0.2 RMB, with a payout ratio of 43.39%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.97 percentage points [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's on-grid electricity volume increased by 4.51% year-on-year to 1,110.24 billion kWh in 2024, driven by favorable water conditions and increased photovoltaic capacity [2]. - The average on-grid electricity price (excluding tax) for 2024 is estimated at 0.222 RMB/kWh, a rise of 0.02 RMB/kWh year-on-year, attributed to the growth in market prices for clean energy in Yunnan province [2]. Q1 2025 Insights - The comprehensive on-grid electricity price (excluding tax) for Q1 2025 is estimated to have decreased by 0.02 RMB/kWh to 0.255 RMB/kWh, influenced by market price changes and the structure of electricity volume [3]. - The company’s electricity volume from lower-priced hydropower stations increased significantly, which affected the overall pricing structure [3]. Valuation and Forecast - The target price of 11.48 RMB is based on a revised PE ratio of 24.0x for 2025, reflecting a decrease from the previous target price of 11.82 RMB [4]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is adjusted down by 2.9% to 8.608 billion RMB, with further projections for 2026 and 2027 showing net profits of 9.342 billion RMB and 9.673 billion RMB, respectively [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.48 RMB [4][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 24.882 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.297 billion RMB, up 8.63% year-on-year [1][6]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 53.85 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.84%, and a net profit of 15.08 million RMB, which is a significant increase of 41.56% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the integrated development of hydropower, wind power, and solar energy, which is anticipated to enhance long-term value [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's electricity generation increased by 4.51% to 1110.24 billion kWh in 2024, driven by favorable water conditions and increased solar capacity [2]. - The average on-grid electricity price (excluding tax) for 2024 is estimated at 0.222 RMB/kWh, a rise of 2 cents compared to the previous year [2]. - The company’s financial expenses decreased by 2.04% year-on-year in 2024 [2]. Q1 2025 Insights - The comprehensive on-grid electricity price (excluding tax) for Q1 2025 is estimated to have decreased by 2 cents to 0.255 RMB/kWh, influenced by market price changes and electricity volume structure [3]. - The company’s electricity generation from lower-priced hydropower stations increased significantly, which may support overall pricing despite anticipated market price declines [3]. Valuation and Forecast - The target price of 11.48 RMB is based on a projected PE ratio of 24.0x for 2025, reflecting a downward adjustment from the previous target of 11.82 RMB [4]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is adjusted to 8.608 billion RMB, a decrease of 2.9% from previous estimates [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huaneng Hydropower [2] Core Views - The company reported a strong Q1 performance with significant revenue and profit growth, driven by improved water conditions and new power station contributions [7] - The financial outlook remains positive with projected revenue and profit growth in the coming years, supported by ongoing projects and cost management strategies [6][7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 24,882 million, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, and for Q1 2025, revenue reached 5,385 million, reflecting a 21.8% increase [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 8,297 million, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, while Q1 2025 net profit was 1,508 million, up 41.6% [6] - Earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 0.54, with a projected gross margin of 58.3% [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 12.1% for 2025 [6] Operational Highlights - The company experienced a 31.42% increase in electricity generation in Q1 2025, attributed to improved water storage and the commissioning of new power units [7] - The average on-grid electricity price for 2024 was 222.57 yuan per megawatt-hour, showing a slight increase from the previous year [7] - Financial expenses have decreased, contributing positively to the company's profitability [7] Growth Potential - The company is actively expanding its renewable energy capacity, with significant projects underway in the Lancang River basin [7] - A planned capital increase of 60 billion yuan aims to support ongoing construction projects, ensuring future growth in installed capacity [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.47, 0.47, and 0.49 for 2025 to 2027, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 20, and 19 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 24.88 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.3 billion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 5.38 billion yuan, reflecting a 21.8% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 1.51 billion yuan, up 41.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company's power generation increased by 4.6% in 2024 and 31.2% in Q1 2025, driven by favorable water conditions, increased storage capacity, new unit commissioning, and strong electricity demand [3]. - The average on-grid electricity price for Q1 2024 was approximately 0.255 yuan/kWh, a decrease of about 0.02 yuan/kWh year-on-year, primarily due to improved water conditions and increased renewable energy supply [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 24.88 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.3 billion yuan, with a planned cash dividend of 0.20 yuan per share, representing a 43.4% payout ratio [2]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.79 billion yuan, 8.88 billion yuan, and 9.24 billion yuan, respectively [5]. Power Generation - The company's hydropower generation in 2024 was 107.93 billion kWh, a 2.53% increase year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a hydropower generation of 19.73 billion kWh, up 30.5% year-on-year [3]. - The company added 1.8 GW of new renewable energy capacity in 2024, with wind and solar generation reaching 4.2 billion kWh and 36.7 billion kWh, respectively [3]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The company's operating costs increased by only 13.9% in Q1 2025, despite a 31.2% increase in power generation, leading to a net profit margin of 32.3%, up 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [4].