Core Viewpoint - Jinzhongzi Liquor has shifted from profit to loss, with a projected net profit loss of 60 million to 90 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a continued downward trend in performance after four consecutive years of losses [1][2]. Group 1: Management Changes - He Xiuxia, a senior executive from China Resources, has submitted her resignation, marking a significant leadership change just four months before her term was set to end [2][3]. - He was appointed as the new general manager in July 2022, tasked with reversing the company's declining performance, but failed to do so over three years [2][4]. Group 2: Sales and Product Strategy - The company has faced a continuous cycle of declining sales and increased losses, exacerbated by a failed price increase strategy that led to reduced sales and lower distributor engagement [4][5]. - Jinzhongzi's key product line, Fuhuo Xiang, has been suspended from shipment due to poor sales performance, despite significant investment in marketing and consumer education [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Jinzhongzi Liquor has reported a significant drop in revenue, with low-end products accounting for 67% of total income in 2024, reflecting a shift in product structure that has not yielded positive results [6][7]. - The overall gross margin for the liquor business has declined to 38.4% in 2024, the lowest in its history, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability compared to industry peers [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - After three years under the control of China Resources, Jinzhongzi Liquor has not yet escaped its loss situation, with an expected net profit loss of 60 to 90 million yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a profit of 11.1 million yuan in the same period last year [1][11] Group 1: Financial Performance - Jinzhongzi Liquor's expected net profit loss for the first half of 2025 is between 60 million and 90 million yuan, a significant decline from the previous year's profit of 11.1 million yuan [1] - The company reported a revenue of 9.25 billion yuan in 2024, achieving only 18.5% of its 50 billion yuan target for that year [11] - From 2020 to 2023, Jinzhongzi's revenue figures were 1.038 billion yuan, 1.211 billion yuan, 1.186 billion yuan, and 1.469 billion yuan, indicating a failure to meet growth targets [11][12] Group 2: Strategic Changes - Jinzhongzi Liquor has shifted its strategy from aggressively launching new products to restructuring its distribution channels, indicating a focus on internal strengthening [7][10] - The company has issued a suspension notice for the delivery of its high-end products, reflecting a strategic adjustment to address channel issues [1][2] - The previous strategy under former General Manager He Xiuxia emphasized product innovation, but the current focus is on channel management to improve sales performance [9][10] Group 3: Product and Market Dynamics - The company has faced challenges in the market, with the high-end Fuhuo Xiang series being a key focus for adjustments, as evidenced by multiple supply suspensions due to inventory pressures [2][8] - Despite significant marketing investments, including a 25.38% increase in sales expenses, the sales performance of new products has been disappointing, with some products showing minimal sales [6][8] - The Fuhuo Xiang series had a sales target of 500 million yuan for 2024 but only achieved 31.36 million yuan, representing just 6% of the goal [8][12] Group 4: Future Outlook - Jinzhongzi Liquor aims to achieve a sales scale of 50 billion yuan by 2025, but current performance indicates a significant gap to this target [11][12] - The company is expected to leverage China Resources' channel advantages to enhance market penetration and operational efficiency [10][12] - Long-term strategies include optimizing product structure and increasing the proportion of mid-to-high-end products to improve profitability [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, is facing unprecedented challenges, including plummeting profits, inventory buildup, and price inversion, raising concerns about the potential bursting of the industry's bubble [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Four listed baijiu companies have issued profit warnings, indicating a significant decline in earnings, with net profits expected to drop by 90.08% to 93.39% compared to the previous year [1] - The company Jiu Gui Jiu is projected to report a net profit of only 8 million to 12 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a staggering 93% decrease year-on-year, with revenue down 43% to 560 million yuan [1] - Water Well Square, despite a 14.54% increase in sales volume, saw revenue decline by 12.84% to 150 million yuan, and net profit halved by 57% to 10 million yuan [2] Group 2: Inventory and Distribution Challenges - Jiu Gui Jiu's dealer network expanded from 528 to 1,774 from 2019 to 2023, leading to severe inventory issues, with a backlog of 1.67 billion yuan and an average turnover period of 1,300 days, significantly higher than the industry average of 800 days [2] - The overall baijiu industry is facing a massive inventory buildup of 150 billion yuan, with 60% of companies experiencing price inversion [5] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The baijiu market is witnessing a structural shift in consumption, with a sharp decline in demand for high-end products and a growing preference for lower-priced options, particularly in the 300-500 yuan range [5] - Young consumers are increasingly abandoning baijiu, with only 19% of those born in the 1990s and 2000s expressing a preference for it, compared to 52% for beer [5] - The traditional sales channels are struggling, with e-commerce now accounting for 18% of sales, and live streaming driving price transparency [8] Group 4: Strategic Responses - Companies are attempting to adapt to the downturn; for instance, Jiu Gui Jiu launched a new product in collaboration with a popular retailer, but concerns remain about the effectiveness of such strategies [7] - Water Well Square is focusing on banquet promotions and cashback offers, yet continues to face significant losses [7] - Major brands like Wuliangye and Moutai are introducing new products aimed at younger consumers, but the effectiveness of these initiatives is still uncertain [7]

证券代码：600199 证券简称：金种子酒 公告编号：临 2025-030 安徽金种子酒业股份有限公司 关于变更持续督导保荐代表人的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 本次变更后，国元证券负责公司非公开发行股票项目的持续督导保荐代表 人为刘依然先生、吴杰先生。 特此公告。 安徽金种子酒业股份有限公司 董事会 2025 年 7 月 16 日 附件：吴杰先生简历 吴杰先生，国元证券投资银行总部高级项目经理，保荐代表人、注册会计 师。曾负责或参与的项目主要有：黄山谷捷 IPO 项目、交建股份 IPO 项目、劲 旅环境 IPO 项目、佳先股份精选层挂牌项目等。 近日，安徽金种子酒业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）收到国元证券 股份有限公司（以下简称"国元证券"）出具的《关于变更安徽金种子酒业股 份有限公司持续督导工作保荐代表人的函》。国元证券作为公司 2017 年度非 公开发行股票的保荐和持续督导机构，原指派孙彬先生、刘依然先生担任保荐 代表人负责持续督导工作，持续督导期至 2020 年 12 月 31 日止。鉴于公 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple liquor companies have reported significant declines in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, leading to a collective drop in stock prices for these companies [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Companies such as Jiu Gui Jiu, Jin Zhong Zi Jiu, Shun Xin Agriculture, and Shui Jing Fang have all issued profit warnings, indicating substantial losses or declines in earnings [1][4]. - Jiu Gui Jiu expects a net profit of only 8 million to 12 million yuan, a year-on-year drop of 90.1% to 93.4%, with revenue around 560 million yuan, down 43% [5][6]. - Shun Xin Agriculture anticipates a net profit of 155 million to 195 million yuan, a decrease of 53.85% to 63.32% year-on-year [6][7]. - Shui Jing Fang projects a net profit of 105 million yuan, down 56.52%, with revenue of 1.498 billion yuan, a 12.84% decline [6][7]. - Jin Zhong Zi Jiu forecasts a net loss of 90 million to 60 million yuan, indicating a challenging financial situation [6][7]. - *ST Yan Shi expects a net loss of 50 million to 75 million yuan, showing a slight improvement compared to the previous year [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcements, liquor stocks collectively fell, with Jin Zhong Zi Jiu and Jiu Gui Jiu dropping over 4%, and other companies like Shui Jing Fang and Shun Xin Agriculture also experiencing declines [1][2]. - The overall liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with weak demand in consumption scenarios such as business banquets [4][8]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Despite the current downturn, some analysts suggest that the liquor sector may have limited downside potential and could present mid-term investment opportunities [8]. - Factors supporting this view include sufficient pre-receipts for leading liquor companies, which may limit the extent of profit declines, and an increasing dividend rate that enhances the attractiveness of leading companies' stock yields [8].

Core Viewpoint - Jinzhongzi Liquor is expected to report a significant net loss for the first half of 2025, continuing a trend of financial struggles over the past four years [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between -90 million to -60 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net profit excluding non-recurring items expected to be between -95 million to -65 million yuan [1]. - In Q1 2025, Jinzhongzi Liquor reported an operating income of 296 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -38.93 million yuan, a decline of 320.62% [5]. - Cumulatively, from 2021 to 2024, the company has recorded net losses of -166 million, -187 million, -22 million, and -258 million yuan, totaling over 600 million yuan in losses [5]. Industry Context - The liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment in 2025, with a continued decline in production and significant changes in consumer behavior and preferences [5]. - Jinzhongzi Liquor faces intense competition from regional brands like Guqingong Liquor and Kouzi Jiao, making it difficult to increase market share [6]. - The company has struggled to find a suitable transformation strategy despite multiple internal adjustments and the involvement of China Resources Group as a major shareholder [6]. Management Changes - Following the acquisition of a 49% stake by China Resources Group, there have been significant management changes, including the resignation of General Manager He Xiuxia [6]. - Analysts suggest that the operational strategies employed by China Resources, such as channel flattening and data control, have not been effective in the liquor market [6].

[Anhui Jinzizao Wine Co., Ltd. 2025 Semi-Annual Performance Pre-Loss Announcement Analysis](index=1&type=section&id=Anhui%20Jinzizao%20Wine%20Co.%2C%20Ltd.%202025%20Semi-Annual%20Performance%20Pre-Loss%20Announcement) [Current Period Performance Forecast](index=1&type=section&id=One.%20Current%20Period%20Performance%20Forecast%20Situation) The company anticipates a shift from profit to loss in H1 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be a loss of RMB 60 million to RMB 90 million, and non-recurring net profit loss expanding to RMB 65 million to RMB 95 million 2025 H1 Performance Forecast | Forecast Metric (2025 H1) | Estimated Amount (RMB million) | | :--- | :--- | | Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders | -90 to -60 | | Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders (Excluding Non-Recurring Items) | -95 to -65 | - This performance forecast has not been audited by a certified public accountant[3](index=3&type=chunk) [Prior Period Performance Review](index=1&type=section&id=Two.%20Prior%20Period%20Operating%20Performance%20and%20Financial%20Status) In contrast to the current period's projected loss, the company achieved profitability in the prior period (H1 2024), with net profit attributable to shareholders of **RMB 11.10 million** and non-recurring net profit of **RMB 3.65 million**, indicating a significant performance decline 2024 H1 Operating Performance | Metric (2024 H1) | Amount (RMB million) | | :--- | :--- | | Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders | 11.10 | | Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders (Excluding Non-Recurring Items) | 3.65 | | Earnings Per Share | 0.0169 RMB | [Analysis of Performance Pre-Loss Reasons](index=1&type=section&id=Three.%20Main%20Reasons%20for%20Current%20Period%20Performance%20Pre-Loss) The pre-loss is primarily due to dual internal and external pressures, including the deep adjustment phase and declining output in the baijiu industry, coupled with increased brand and market investment for the new 'Fuhexiang' series which is still in its market cultivation stage and has not yet achieved economies of scale - External factors include the baijiu industry undergoing deep adjustment in H1 2025, with continued production decline and significant changes in consumption patterns[6](index=6&type=chunk) - Internal factors include the company's new 'Fuhexiang' series being in its market cultivation period, not yet achieving economies of scale, and increased investment in quality expression, advertising, and consumer cultivation to enhance brand performance, thereby pressuring current period profits[6](index=6&type=chunk) [Risk Warning](index=2&type=section&id=Four.%20Risk%20Warning) The company states that as of the announcement date, there are no significant uncertainties affecting the accuracy of this performance forecast, but emphasizes that the forecast data remains unaudited by a certified public accountant - The company confirms no significant uncertainties exist that would affect the accuracy of this performance forecast[6](index=6&type=chunk) - This performance forecast has not been audited by a certified public accountant[6](index=6&type=chunk) [Other Explanations](index=2&type=section&id=Five.%20Other%20Explanations) The company advises investors that the disclosed data is preliminary, and the final accurate financial figures will be based on the officially released 2025 semi-annual report, urging caution regarding investment risks - The forecast data represents preliminary calculations, with final accurate figures subject to the company's officially disclosed 2025 semi-annual report, and investors are advised to exercise caution regarding investment risks[7](index=7&type=chunk)

Group 1 - The company Jinzhongzi Liquor (stock code: 600199) announced an expected net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 to be between -90 million and -60 million yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between -95 million and -65 million yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share liquor industry has experienced a short-term rise, with several stocks, including Huangtai Liquor, hitting the daily limit, and others like Jinzhongzi Liquor increasing nearly 4% [1] Industry Summary - Huangtai Liquor has reached the daily limit, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the stock [1] - Jinzhongzi Liquor has seen an increase of nearly 4%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the liquor sector [1] - Other notable stocks such as Jiu Gui Jiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, and Kweichow Moutai have also followed suit with upward movements [1] Price Movement Summary - The price of the 25-year-old Feitian Moutai has reported a batch price of 1870 yuan per bottle, which is an increase of 20 yuan compared to the previous day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor stocks have experienced significant upward movement, with Huangtai Liquor (000995) hitting the daily limit, and Jinzhongzi Liquor (600199) rising over 4% [1] Company Performance - Huangtai Liquor (000995) reached its daily limit, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Jinzhongzi Liquor (600199) saw an increase of more than 4%, reflecting positive market sentiment [1] - Other companies such as Laobai Gan Liquor (600559), Wuliangye (000858), and Shuijingfang (600779) also experienced upward movement, suggesting a broader trend in the sector [1] Market Activity - There is a notable influx of dark pool funds into these liquor stocks, indicating increased trading activity and potential investor confidence [1]