Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **107.09 CNY** [2] Core Views - The company, Wanhua Chemical, plans to jointly invest with ADNOC in a **1.6 million tons/year special polyolefin integrated project** in Fuzhou, marking a new chapter for both companies [1] - The project leverages ADNOC's domestic investment significance, long-term trust, and Wanhua's efficient chemical industry capabilities, along with green energy resources [1] - The project's profitability is expected to be comparable to Borouge, with **gross margins of 48%, 44%, and 37% in 2021-2023** respectively, driven by product differentiation and ethane resource advantages [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be **5.82, 6.89, and 8.00 CNY** respectively [2] - A **15% valuation premium** is applied due to the company's superior long-term ROE and historical growth, resulting in a **18x PE multiple** for 2024 [2] ADNOC's Strategic Expansion - ADNOC's development aligns with the UAE's national strategy, focusing on **sustainable assets** to hedge against future declines in oil and gas revenues [13] - ADNOC has been actively expanding its chemical assets, including **5 million tons of polyolefin capacity** in Ruwais and a **1 million tons ethane cracker** in the US [13][14] - ADNOC's recent capital operations, such as acquiring stakes in OMV and Fertiglobe, indicate a shift towards **large-scale industrial investments in China** [13][15] Wanhua Chemical's Strategic Shift - The collaboration with ADNOC represents a shift from **dominance to partnership** for Wanhua, marking a new phase in its international development [21] - The project will utilize **Borstar technology** from Borealis, with Wanhua providing industrial support and green energy solutions [22] - The project is expected to benefit from **low carbon emissions** due to the use of green electricity, with a **310MW offshore wind power project** already approved [22] Economic Assessment - The project's economic viability is supported by **Borstar technology** and **ethane resource advantages**, similar to Borouge's operations [25] - Borouge's **product premium** contributed **19% and 15% to gross margins in 2022 and 2023** respectively, which is expected to be replicated in the Fuzhou project [26] - Despite higher ethane transportation costs in China, Wanhua's operational efficiency and joint ethane fleet with ADNOC are expected to offset these disadvantages [27][29] Comparative Analysis - Borouge's **investment intensity** for its ethane cracker projects is significantly higher than that of domestic companies like Satellite Chemical, with **single-ton ethylene investment intensity** exceeding **2.45 million CNY** [20] - Satellite Chemical's Lianyungang project demonstrates that **domestic efficiency** can offset resource disadvantages, with **net margins** comparable to Borouge after adjusting for product premiums [29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10][20] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 97.067 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.77%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.60% year-on-year to 8.174 billion yuan [4][5] - The company is progressing with new projects, including a joint venture to build a 1.6 million ton specialty polyolefin project, indicating a move towards internationalization [3][10] - The company is expected to experience high growth in the future as new capacities come online, with projected revenues of 190.616 billion yuan, 230.538 billion yuan, and 261.770 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10][18] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 50.906 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.42%, but a net profit of 4.017 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 11.03% year-on-year [1][4] - The operating cash flow for Q2 2024 was 7.208 billion yuan, an increase of 1.53 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 was 15.31%, a slight decrease compared to the previous year [1] Segment Performance - The petrochemical segment generated a revenue of 39.575 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, with a gross margin of 4.52%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.22 percentage points [2] - The polyurethane segment saw a revenue of 12.979 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 16.99%, although it decreased by 5.06 percentage points year-on-year [6][12] - The company’s MDI production capacity is set to double, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [10][18] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 5.20 yuan per 10 shares for the first half of 2024 [8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 6.06 yuan, 8.12 yuan, and 10.01 yuan respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [11][20] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain stable at around 19% for 2024, increasing to 22% by 2026 [11][20]

证券代码：600309 证券简称：万华化学 公告编号：临 2024-43 号 万华化学集团股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年半年度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 副总裁兼董事会秘书、财务负责人：李立民 重要内容提示： 投资者可于 2024 年 8 月 16 日(星期五) 至 8 月 22 日(星期四)16:00 前登录上证路演中心 网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过公司邮箱 stocks@whchem.com 进行提问。公司将在说 明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 万华化学集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 8 月 13 日发布 公司 2024 年半年度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2024 年半年 度经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于 2024 年 8 月 23 日 下午 16:00-17:00 举行 2024 年半年度业绩说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 一、 说明会类型 本次投资者说明会以网络互动形式召开，公司将针对 2024 年半年度的 ...

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 8 月 15 日 600309.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 70.80 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (28%) (22%) (16%) (9%) (3%) 4% Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24 万华化学 上证综指 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (6.4) (15.0) (21.0) (25.0) 相对上证综指 (2.7) (11.0) (11.7) (14.7) | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|------------| | 发行股数 (百万) | 3,139.75 | | 流通股 (百万) | 3,139.75 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 222,294.06 | | 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 956.37 | | 主要股东 | | | 烟台国丰投资控股集团有限公司 | 21.59 | | 资料来源 ...

二季度业绩符合预期，重点项目持续推进 万华化学（600309.SH）/化工 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 8 月 14 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|----------------------------------|--------------|-------------|-------------|--------------|-------------| | 市场价格：70.80 元 | 指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：孙颖 | 营业收入（百万元） | 165,565 | 175,361 | 191,239 | 215,486 | 247,311 | | 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 | 增长率 yoy% 归母净利润（百万元） | 13.8% 16,234 ...

基础化工/化学制品 多项目稳步推进，看好公司长期成长潜力 万华化学（600309.SH） 2024 年 08 月 14 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 日期 2024/8/13 当前股价(元) 73.01 一年最高最低(元) 99.10/66.78 总市值(亿元) 2,292.33 流通市值(亿元) 2,292.33 总股本(亿股) 31.40 流通股本(亿股) 31.40 近 3 个月换手率(%) 23.8 金益腾（分析师） 龚道琳（分析师） 李思佳（联系人） gongdaolin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522010001 lisijia@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070026 jinyiteng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020002 公司 Q2 业绩环比略降，看好公司长期价值和成长，维持"买入"评级 2024H1 公司实现营收 970.67 亿元，同比+10.77%；实现归母净利润 81.74 亿元， 同比-4.60%。其中，2024Q2 实现营收 509.06 亿元，同比+11.42%，环比+10.28%； 实现归母净利润 40.17 亿元，同比-11. ...

万华化学 24 中报交流 240813CJ_导读 2024 年 08 月 13 日 17:02 摘要 化工行业龙头企业近期发布的 2024 年中期报告显示，尽管营业总收入略有下降但仍保持稳定，显示出 公司强大的全球竞争力。公司继续在技术和工艺上进行创新，保持行业领先的能耗和成本优势。面对全 球经济下行压力和市场竞争加剧，公司通过优化产品结构和加大研发投入来应对，特别是在新兴材料领 域进行了大量投资，同时注重社会责任和人才培养。此外，公司通过精细化管理和全球市场布局，尽管 面临着原材料价格波动和国际贸易壁垒等挑战，但仍维持了一定的增长势头，并对市场复苏持乐观态度 未来，公司将着重于产业升级和产品创新，以实现可持续发展和市场领导地位。 问答 发言人 2 问：导致公司上半年净利润下降的主要原因有哪些？ 发言人 3 答：净利润下降主要有两大原因。一是全球经济形势的变化，包括欧洲因能源价格高涨和通 胀带来的消费需求不足以及投资放缓；二是能源结构和成本上升的压力，特别是欧洲化工企业面临较大 挑战。此外，美洲市场需求相对低迷，加上产品价格偏低导致获利减少。在国内，虽然整体需求保持增 长，但由于产能过剩加剧价格竞争，形成增量 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call pertains to **Wanhua Chemical**, a company in the chemical industry, specifically focusing on its mid-year financial report. Core Points and Arguments - The call was led by **Ma Tai**, the Chief Analyst of Changjiang Securities, along with his partner **Wang Ming**. They welcomed participants to the conference call for the mid-year report interpretation of Wanhua Chemical [1]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call emphasized the legal responsibilities that may arise from the information shared during the meeting, indicating that any consequences or legal liabilities would be borne by the respective institutions or individuals involved [1].

证 券 研 究 报 告 万华化学（600309）2024 年中报点评 强推（维持） Q2 利润环比微降，产能释放带来长期成长动能 目标价：101.85 元 事项： 公司发布 2024 年中报，24Q2 实现收入 509.06 亿元，同比/环比分别 +11.42%/+10.28%；实现归母净利润 40.17 亿元，同比/环比分别-11.03%/-3.38%； 实现扣非归母净利润 39.72 亿元，同比/环比分别-8.09%/-3.76%。公司计划每 股派发中期现金红利人民币 0.52 元（含税），共计分配利润总额约 16.33 亿元。 分板块来看，24Q2 公司实现聚氨酯、石化、精细化工品及新材料业务收入 180/211/69 亿元，环比分别+3%/+14%/+13%；实现销量 138/141/48 万吨，环 比分别+5%/+5%/+9%；实现平均售价 13010/14937/14320 元/吨，环比分别 -3%/+8%/+3%。 评论： 三大板块持续贡献增量，新材料板块景气修复。得益于福建基地 MDI 装置的 技改扩能，TDI 装置有效产能增加以及烟台聚醚新装置的投产，24Q2 公司三 大板块持续贡献量增。从 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain Buy rating on Wanhua Chemical Group (600309 SS) with a revised 12-month target price of Rmb106 0 per share, up from Rmb103 0 [2][5] Core Thesis - The polyurethane cycle is bottoming out, with volume recovery across major players and sequentially improved pricing, although spread recovery was delayed due to high raw material prices [3] - Wanhua Chemical is well-positioned for cyclical recovery, with a leading position in one of the most consolidated commodity chemical supply chains and long-term structural growth opportunities [8] - The company is expected to grow earnings at a +c 20% CAGR over 2023-26E, driven by new capacity projects for high-margin specialty chemicals and normalization of petrochemical earnings [6][8] Financial Estimates - 2024E-26E EPS estimates reduced by 5-9% to reflect weaker-than-expected margins in performance chemicals and new materials segment, higher opex, impairment losses, and finance expenses [2] - 2024E revenue estimate revised to Rmb198 310mn (from Rmb199 624mn), 2025E to Rmb228 460mn (from Rmb231 413mn), and 2026E to Rmb261 360mn (from Rmb262 856mn) [5] - 2024E net profit estimate revised to Rmb16 670mn (from Rmb18 227mn), 2025E to Rmb22 071mn (from Rmb24 199mn), and 2026E to Rmb26 748mn (from Rmb28 149mn) [5] Valuation and Catalysts - Target EV/EBITDA multiple slightly lowered to 10 5x (from 11 0x) to reflect reduced growth forecasts, but valuation base year rolled forward to average 2024E-25E [2] - Potential catalysts include US rate cuts and improving construction activities in Europe in early-mid 2025, which should support recovery in polyurethane demand and drive pricing/margin upside [2] - Strong pipeline of new capacity projects for high-margin specialty chemicals (e g , polyolefin elastomers and flavor and fragrance) scheduled to come on stream in 2H24 [3] Industry Position - Wanhua Chemical is the largest global producer of MDI (30% share of 2023 global capacity) and TDI (25% share of 2022 capacity) [6] - The company accounts for ~80% of global new polyurethane supply over 2023-25E, with continued volume share gains expected [6]