Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its Q1 2025 performance, with a notable increase in non-recurring net profit by 112.75% compared to Q4 2024, driven by cost reductions and a recovery in product prices [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable refining environment and the gradual exit of marginal refining capacities due to increased fuel oil import tariffs, which will support high-quality development in the refining industry [7] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 57.024 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.051 billion yuan, down 4.13% year-on-year [5] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 9.142 billion, 11.395 billion, and 12.324 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.30, 1.62, and 1.75 yuan [5][8] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 10.6% in 2025 to 10.8% in 2026 and 2027, while net margin is expected to rise from 3.7% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 2027 [8][11] Sales and Pricing - In Q1 2025, the sales volumes for refining products, PTA, and new materials were 5.4309 million, 4.1067 million, and 1.3354 million tons respectively, with varying changes in sales prices across segments [6] - The average selling prices for refining products, PTA, and new materials in Q1 2025 were 5,181.99, 4,391.90, and 6,963.22 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase compared to the previous quarter [6] Cost and Debt Management - The company’s average prices for key raw materials such as coal, butanediol, crude oil, and PX in Q1 2025 were 603.72, 7,018.05, 4,056.30, and 6,219.78 yuan per ton, indicating a decrease in coal and crude oil prices [6] - As of Q1 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio stood at 76.55%, with expectations for continued optimization in the future [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hengli Petrochemical is maintained as "Buy" [1][9]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in the company's performance, with a notable increase in non-recurring net profit in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, driven by cost reductions and a recovery in product prices [6][7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the refining sector, benefiting from cost advantages and operational flexibility, which supports the optimistic profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][9]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 57.024 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.051 billion yuan, down 4.13% year-on-year [5]. - The non-recurring net profit for Q1 2025 was 1.239 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 112.75% [6]. - Sales volumes for refining products, PTA, and new materials in Q1 2025 were 5.4309 million tons, 4.1067 million tons, and 1.3354 million tons, respectively [6]. - The average selling prices for refining products, PTA, and new materials were 5,181.99 yuan/ton, 4,391.90 yuan/ton, and 6,963.22 yuan/ton, reflecting a positive trend [6]. Profit Forecasts - The profit forecasts for Hengli Petrochemical for 2025-2027 are as follows: net profit of 9.142 billion yuan in 2025, 11.395 billion yuan in 2026, and 12.324 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.30 yuan, 1.62 yuan, and 1.75 yuan [5][8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12.0 for 2025, 9.6 for 2026, and 8.9 for 2027 [5][8]. Industry Outlook - The refining sector is expected to see continued improvement in market conditions, with a notable increase in refining margins since Q4 2024 [7]. - The recent increase in fuel oil import tariffs is anticipated to reduce the operational capacity of less efficient refineries, benefiting the overall quality development of the refining industry [7].

石油石化 上 市 公 司 2025 年 04 月 24 日 恒力石化 (600346) ——业绩环比提升，炼油景气有所修复 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 23 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 15.57 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 17.23/12.13 | | 市净率 | 1.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.53 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 109,599 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,296.36/9,935.80 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.28 | | 资产负债率% | 76.55 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 7,039/7,039 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-23 05-23 06-23 07-23 08-23 09-23 10-23 11-23 12-23 01- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a previous rating also being "Buy" [2][5]. Core Views - The company has shown steady operational performance, with a significant increase in new material sales. The actual controller's commitment to increasing shareholding enhances market confidence [5][10]. - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 236.40 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 7.04 billion, up 2.01% year-on-year [11]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of RMB 57.05 billion, a decrease of 2.34% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 2.05 billion, down 4.13% year-on-year [13]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are as follows: - Net profit estimates: RMB 8.56 billion (2025), RMB 9.16 billion (2026), RMB 10.72 billion (2027) [7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates: RMB 1.22 (2025), RMB 1.30 (2026), RMB 1.52 (2027) [7]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2025 is projected to be RMB 26.76 billion, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12.8 times [7]. - The company’s total assets as of the end of 2024 were RMB 273.08 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 76.78% [10][16]. Operational Highlights - The company’s production for 2024 included 25.50 million tons of refining products, 16.84 million tons of PTA, and 6.51 million tons of new materials, with significant year-on-year growth in new materials [10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 0.45 per share for 2024, totaling RMB 3.17 billion, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 44.97% [10]. Market Position - The company is positioned in the petrochemical sector, with a market capitalization of approximately RMB 109.67 billion and a strong performance relative to the Shanghai Composite Index [4][2].

Core Viewpoint - The China Oil and Gas Industry Index has shown mixed performance, with a recent increase but a decline over the past month, three months, and year-to-date [1][2] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Oil and Gas Industry Index rose by 1.05% to 1713.36 points, with a trading volume of 15.536 billion yuan [1] - Over the past month, the index has decreased by 6.82%, down 4.76% over the last three months, and down 8.39% year-to-date [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The index includes companies involved in oil and gas exploration, equipment manufacturing, transportation, sales, refining, and primary petrochemical production [1] - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: China National Petroleum (10.5%), China National Offshore Oil (10.09%), Sinopec (9.72%), Guanghui Energy (4.84%), China Merchants Energy (3.68%), Jereh Group (3.56%), Hengli Petrochemical (3.28%), Satellite Chemical (2.77%), COSCO Shipping Energy (2.69%), and Dongfang Shenghong (2.66%) [1] - The index is primarily composed of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (71.86%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (28.14%) [1] Group 3: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the index shows that energy accounts for 62.08%, materials for 20.17%, industrials for 14.79%, finance for 1.86%, and utilities for 1.10% [2] Group 4: Index Adjustment and Fund Tracking - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Public funds tracking the oil and gas industry include: Guotai China Oil and Gas Industry Link A, Guotai China Oil and Gas Industry Link C, and Guotai China Oil and Gas Industry ETF [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next six months [9][11]. Core Views - The company's earnings are expected to show resilience, with a projected EPS of 1.10 yuan for 2025, 1.57 yuan for 2026, and 1.83 yuan for 2027, reflecting a PE ratio of 14.15, 9.90, and 8.52 respectively based on the closing price as of April 22, 2025 [7][9]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a new cycle of refining industry prosperity due to its integrated cost advantages and strong market position as a leading private refining enterprise [7][9]. - The report highlights the company's robust cash flow and reduced capital expenditures, which support its long-term dividend-paying capability [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 236.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit of 7.04 billion yuan, up 2.01% year-on-year [9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 57.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.34% year-on-year, but a sequential improvement in net profit by 5.78% [9]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The report notes a decline in energy costs, with Brent crude oil averaging $80 per barrel in 2024, down 2.8% year-on-year, which enhances the company's cost advantages [9]. - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of oil and coal, with a continued favorable supply-demand balance in the coal market [9]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company has successfully launched several new polyester materials, with sales reaching 5.64 million tons in 2024, a 38% increase year-on-year, contributing significantly to revenue [9]. - Ongoing projects in functional film production and lithium battery separators are expected to further enhance the company's market position and profitability [9]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company maintained a dividend payout ratio of 44.97% in 2024, with a total dividend amounting to 3.168 billion yuan, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next six months [7][9]. Core Insights - The company's earnings are expected to show resilience, with a projected EPS of 1.10 yuan for 2025, 1.57 yuan for 2026, and 1.83 yuan for 2027, reflecting a PE ratio of 14.15, 9.90, and 8.52 respectively [7][9]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a new cycle of refining industry prosperity due to its integrated cost advantages and strong market position as a leading private refining enterprise [7][9]. - The report highlights the company's ability to enhance dividends, reinforcing its status as a leading player in the industry [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 236.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit of 7.04 billion yuan, up 2.01% year-on-year [9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 57.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.34% year-on-year, but a sequential improvement in net profit by 5.78% [9]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The report notes a decline in energy costs, which enhances the company's integrated cost advantages in the "oil-coal-chemical" sector [9]. - The average Brent crude oil price in 2024 was $80 per barrel, down 2.8% year-on-year, while coal prices continued to decline due to a relaxed supply-demand balance [9]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company has successfully launched several new polyester material projects, with sales volume reaching 5.64 million tons in 2024, a 38% increase year-on-year [9]. - The report anticipates that the company will become a leading global producer of functional membrane materials as new production lines are gradually put into operation [9]. Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The company reported a robust operating cash flow of 22.73 billion yuan in 2024, indicating strong operational resilience [9]. - With a dividend payout ratio of 44.97% in 2024, the company is expected to continue its trend of increasing dividends as capital expenditures decrease [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates resilience in performance, aiming to build a "growth + return" type of listed enterprise [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 236.3 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.044 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year [5] - The company continues to implement a high dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 0.45 yuan per share for 2024, which is approximately 31.7 billion yuan, accounting for about 44.97% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [8] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 58.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, but a net profit of 1.939 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 61% year-on-year [5] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 57 billion yuan, down 2.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.051 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year [6] Production Capacity and Growth - The company has successfully launched several new production capacities, including a 1.6 million tons/year high-performance resin and new materials project, and a 400,000 tons/year high-performance industrial yarn project [7] - The company is expected to gradually launch additional projects, enhancing its position in the high-value-added new materials industry [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9.228 billion yuan, 10.538 billion yuan, and 11.606 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.31 yuan, 1.50 yuan, and 1.65 yuan [9][10] - The report maintains the profit forecast for 2025-2026 and adds a new forecast for 2027, indicating sustained growth potential [9]

Summary of Hengli Petrochemical Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hengli Petrochemical - **Industry**: Petrochemical and Refining Key Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Hengli Petrochemical reported revenue of 57 billion CNY and a net profit of 2.05 billion CNY, with operating cash flow of 7.75 billion CNY, indicating a recovery trend [1][2] - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 236.3 billion CNY and a net profit of 7.044 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2] - The construction projects in progress decreased from 56.6 billion CNY in Q1 2024 to 38 billion CNY, signaling the nearing end of capital expenditures [2][3] - The debt-to-asset ratio improved from 78% to 76.5%, reflecting enhanced financial stability [1][2] Industry Trends - The petrochemical industry began a gradual recovery in 2023, with coal prices dropping from 1,000 CNY/ton to 600 CNY/ton, and oil prices returning to rational levels [1][4] - Domestic demand has shown seasonal fluctuations, but government policies have been implemented to stimulate demand recovery [1][4] - In Q4 2025, the company recorded an impairment loss of over 1.1 billion CNY due to falling oil prices, but Q1 2025 showed improved operational conditions [1][4] Competitive Advantages - Hengli Petrochemical benefits from a comprehensive cost advantage, product structure advantage, and operational mechanism advantage [5] - The integration of oil and coal reduces costs significantly; a 100 CNY decrease in coal price can save 1.6 to 1.7 billion CNY in costs [5] - The company has a refining capacity of 20 million tons and is focusing on high-value-added products through resource investment and product optimization [6] Future Outlook - The peak of capital expenditures is expected to end in 2025, with ongoing projects projected to decrease to around 10 billion CNY [3][7] - The company plans to maintain stable dividends while reducing high-cost short-term financing [3][7] - The impact of tariffs on imported raw materials is expected to support the profitability of the company, despite the ongoing trade tensions [8][11] Market Conditions - The market for polyester filament and industrial yarn has shown signs of pressure due to decreased operating rates and increased caution among end customers [12][13] - The company has approximately 2 million tons of polyester filament capacity, with stable profitability from its Suzhou project [12] - The overall performance of the industrial yarn segment is positive, contributing to the company's profitability [13] Strategic Adjustments - Hengli Petrochemical is actively adjusting its product structure in response to market challenges, focusing on optimizing production based on profitability [14] - The company is closely monitoring the effects of the tariff war and is prepared to adapt its product lines accordingly [14] Tax and Financial Management - The total tax and additional charges for 2024 were approximately 6.4 billion CNY, a reduction of about 3 billion CNY from the previous year [17] - Hengli Petrochemical benefits from tax rebates under specific policies, with approximately 6 billion CNY owed to the company by Dalian City [18] Conclusion - Hengli Petrochemical is positioned to navigate the complexities of the current market environment, leveraging its competitive advantages and strategic adjustments to enhance profitability and shareholder returns [1][5][6][7]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 57.024 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.34% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.051 billion yuan, down 4.13% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.239 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 31.88% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Refining and Chemical Products - The apparent consumption of refined oil in Q1 2025 was 92.82 million tons, a decrease of 4.38% year-on-year, indicating stable overall demand [2] - The average crack spreads for diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene were 1,001 yuan, 1,523 yuan, and 1,434 yuan per ton, showing a mixed trend with diesel and aviation kerosene spreads narrowing [2] - The average PX-crude oil crack spread was 2,354 yuan per ton, down 25.99% year-on-year, leading to a decline in product profitability [2] - The average crack spread for polyolefins was 3,267 yuan per ton, an increase of 14.32% year-on-year, but still in a bottoming phase [2] - The average PTA-PX crack spread was 256 yuan per ton, down 20.27% year-on-year, indicating pressure on chemical product profitability [2] Group 3: Cost Advantages - The average coal price in Q1 2025 was 724 yuan per ton, a decrease of 19.71% year-on-year and 12.28% quarter-on-quarter, enhancing the company's cost advantage [3] - The company has a coal chemical capacity of 5 million tons per year, benefiting from low coal prices for its heating and power generation needs [3] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is expected to see improved performance as the economy gradually recovers, with projected net profits of 7.4 billion yuan, 8.3 billion yuan, and 9.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [4] - Corresponding EPS estimates are 1.05 yuan, 1.17 yuan, and 1.31 yuan, with PE ratios of 14.9X, 13.3X, and 11.9X respectively [4]