Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations and adjustments in Q4 2024, with public funds maintaining a stable equity position compared to Q3 2024 [1][2] - Ningde Times has become the top holding stock for public funds for the third consecutive time, followed by Tencent Holdings and Midea Group, while Kweichow Moutai has dropped to fourth place [1][4][6] Group 2 - The average equity position of all comparable funds was 80.28% at the end of 2024, remaining relatively stable compared to 80.3% at the end of Q3 2024 [2] - Stock funds had an average position of 88.19%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points from 89.13% in Q3 2024, while mixed funds saw a slight increase to 79.08% [2] Group 3 - Several equity funds significantly increased their stock positions in Q4 2024, with examples including E Fund Quality Momentum Fund, which raised its equity position to 93.15%, up 17.84 percentage points from Q3 2024 [2] - The top 50 heavy stocks in public funds are primarily concentrated in the consumer goods and services, and information technology sectors [4] Group 4 - The consumer goods and services sector includes 16 stocks in the top 50 heavy stocks, featuring major players like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Midea Group [4] - The information technology sector comprises 14 companies, including key players like Luxshare Precision and SMIC [4] Group 5 - Fund managers are optimistic about technology stocks, with a focus on AI, AR/VR, and smart driving technologies, indicating a potential shift in the economic landscape [7][8] - Funds are increasingly allocating resources to companies with innovative business models and products in the consumer sector [8][9]

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company achieved high-quality growth in 2024, with revenue reaching 1871.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, and profit totaling 1207.7 billion yuan, up 10.2% year-on-year [2] - The company completed eight key tasks in 2024, including strengthening the main business, improving production quality, and enhancing marketing strategies [2] - For 2025, the company aims for steady progress, focusing on nine major systems such as modern industrial development, enterprise governance, and product quality control [3] Financial Performance - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 68.23/73.33/79.65 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22/20/19 times [8] - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are expected to be 15.4%, 7.4%, and 8.1%, respectively, while net profit growth rates are forecasted at 14.7%, 7.5%, and 8.6% [10] - ROE is expected to increase from 33.4% in 2023 to 38.3% in 2026 [10] Market Performance - The current stock price is 1471.27 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 1848.2 billion yuan [4] - The 52-week price range is between 1261 and 1770 yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 5329.34 million yuan [4] Strategic Focus - The company plans to focus on three main businesses: liquor industry, liquor tourism and health, and industrial chain finance [3] - It aims to build a dual-circulation marketing system, integrating domestic and international markets [3] - The company will continue to invest in R&D, with a projected year-on-year increase of 10.2% in 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Kweichow Moutai [4][8] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai achieved high-quality growth in 2024, with revenue reaching 187.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, and a total profit of 120.77 billion yuan, up 10.2% [2] - The company aims for steady progress in 2025, focusing on maintaining excellent levels in key performance indicators such as labor productivity, profit margin, and return on equity [3] Summary by Sections 2024 Performance - Kweichow Moutai completed all tasks for 2024, achieving double-digit growth in major indicators [2] - Key achievements include a revenue of 187.19 billion yuan, profit of 120.77 billion yuan, and tax contributions of 81.74 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 13.3%, 10.2%, and 15.0% [2] - The company emphasized eight key areas of work, including strengthening the liquor industry value chain and enhancing quality management systems [2] 2025 Goals - The main targets for 2025 include stable progress in key indicators and a 10.2% increase in R&D investment [3] - The company plans to focus on nine major systems, including modern industrial development, corporate governance, product quality control, and risk management [3] Financial Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 68.23 yuan, 73.33 yuan, and 79.65 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22, 20, and 19 [8] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 173.81 billion yuan, 186.74 billion yuan, and 201.81 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.4%, 7.4%, and 8.1% [10]

2025 年 1 月 8 日，贵州茅台酒股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）以 直接送达或电子邮件的方式，向全体董事发出召开第四届董事会 2025 年度 第一次会议（以下简称"会议"）的通知，发出会议通知前全体董事一致 同意豁免了提前通知的要求。2025 年 1 月 8 日，会议以通讯表决方式召开， 会议应出席董事 7 人，实际出席董事 7 人。会议的召开符合《中华人民共 和国公司法》等法律、行政法规和《公司章程》的规定。 证券简称：贵州茅台 证券代码：600519 编号：临 2025－003 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司 第四届董事会 2025 年度第一次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重 大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 贵州茅台酒股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 1 月 9 日 1 二、董事会会议审议情况 议案名称：《关于向西藏自治区慈善总会捐赠 2000 万元用于西藏自治 区日喀则市定日县地震抗震救灾工作的议案》 同意：7 票；反对：0 票；弃权：0 票。议案获得通过。 会议决定，公司向西藏自治区慈善总会捐赠 2 ...

Company Updates - Kweichow Moutai launched the Year of the Snake commemorative product, priced at 2499 yuan per bottle, marking the completion of a full zodiac cycle for its commemorative series [1] - The company plans to repurchase 3.3862 million shares with a maximum amount of 6 billion yuan, the largest repurchase plan in the A-share food and beverage industry since July 2022 [5] - Moutai has already repurchased 209,000 shares for nearly 30 million yuan as of January 3 [5] - The repurchase price ceiling is set at 1771.9 yuan per share, representing a premium of over 20% to the current stock price [5] - Moutai's overseas business revenue proportion ranks first in the industry, with plans to become an international company by 2035 [7] Financial Performance - Moutai's 2024 net profit is expected to reach approximately 85.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 14.67% [3] - The company's net profit growth rate in 2024 is expected to decline by more than 4 percentage points compared to 2023's 19.16% growth [3] - Moutai's stock price fell 4.13% from December 30, 2024 to January 7, outperforming the broader liquor index which fell 6.85% during the same period [2] - Since December 2024, Moutai's decline has been less than half of the nearly 9% drop in the liquor index [2] Industry Trends - Nearly 80% of liquor companies may face performance pressure in 2024 [4] - Many well-known liquor companies are expected to see single-digit net profit growth in 2024, such as Shanxi Fenjiu (19.5%) and Luzhou Laojiao (8.26%) [4] - Some companies like Jinguizi Liquor may continue to experience losses in 2024 [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the liquor industry is below 19 times, significantly lower than the 10-year median of nearly 30 times [2] - The industry is transitioning from quantity expansion to quality development, with leading companies implementing measures to control volume and stabilize prices [7] Market Outlook - The liquor industry is expected to enter a stage of supply-demand balance, with companies focusing more on product quality [7] - Industry demand is predicted to gradually improve in 2025 under policy stimulus, with sales volume expected to recover moderately [8] - Price risks have been largely released and are expected to stabilize [8] - The industry is currently in a bottoming-out phase, with expectations of gradual improvement after Q2 2025 [8] - The sector remains at a low valuation level, with room for improvement in dividend payout ratios [8]

Market Performance of Moutai's Zodiac Wine - The terminal price of Moutai's Snake Zodiac Wine (Snake Moutai) has shown a more rational trend compared to previous years, with the current retail price at 2,850 RMB per bottle and 2,930 RMB per bottle with an invoice [1] - The pre-sale price of Snake Moutai once surged to over 4,000 RMB per bottle before its official release, but the price has since stabilized due to increased market supply [1] - Online platforms show that the price of Snake Moutai generally ranges between 2,700 RMB and 2,900 RMB per bottle [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Moutai has changed its previous limited-release strategy for zodiac wines, with the company releasing nearly 100,000 bottles of Snake Moutai daily for five consecutive days through its official e-commerce platform "i Moutai" before the official launch [2] - By the time of its official release on January 5th, nearly 500,000 bottles of Snake Moutai had been pre-ordered, significantly increasing market supply and reducing the likelihood of excessive price speculation [2] - The increased supply has met the genuine collection demand of Moutai enthusiasts, preventing a supply-demand imbalance and excessive price premiums [2] Industry and Company Strategy - The current price of Snake Moutai is considered reasonable, making it more accessible to genuine consumers while reducing speculative opportunities [3] - Moutai's management has shifted its focus from "channel-driven" to "consumer-driven" strategies, aiming to regulate price expectations through market mechanisms and benefit consumers with genuine collection, self-consumption, and social gifting needs [3] - The company's strategy aligns with its goal of addressing the fundamental issue of "supply-demand adaptation" and maintaining a healthy and orderly pricing system for its products [3] - Moutai's pricing strategy is seen as beneficial for the valuation system of the Chinese liquor industry, particularly in a market where many premium liquors face price inversion [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519 SH) with a target price of RMB 1,440 00 [1] - The sector rating is **Outperform** [1] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai achieved its 2024 targets with an estimated operating revenue of RMB 173 8 billion (+15 4% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 85 7 billion (+14 7% YoY) [3] - The company announced a "three-year dividend plan" with a payout ratio of no less than 75% for 2024-2026 and a mid-year dividend of RMB 23 882 per share (totaling over RMB 30 billion) [5] - A share buyback plan of RMB 3-6 billion was announced to enhance investor confidence [5] - The company is expected to achieve EPS of RMB 68 23, 74 46, and 81 19 for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21 1X, 19 3X, and 17 7X [5] Business Performance - In 2024, Moutai liquor revenue reached RMB 145 8 billion (+15 2% YoY), while series liquor revenue grew to RMB 24 6 billion (+19 2% YoY) [8] - Q4 2024 saw a slowdown in series liquor revenue growth to 3 4%, while Moutai liquor maintained double-digit growth at 13 6% [8] - The company produced 56 3k tons of Moutai base liquor (-1 6% YoY) and 48 1k tons of series liquor base liquor (+12 0% YoY) in 2024 [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on "three transformations" (customer base, consumption scenarios, and service) to adapt to market changes [8] - For 2025, Moutai plans to slightly increase domestic market allocation of Moutai liquor, reduce the allocation of 53-degree 500ml premium Moutai, and increase the allocation of 1000ml bottles to stabilize prices [8] - The company aims to build three RMB 10 billion business units for series liquor: Moutai 1935, Moutai Prince, and Han Sauce [8] Financial Projections - Operating revenue is projected to grow to RMB 187 6 billion (+10 0% YoY) in 2025 and RMB 207 0 billion (+10 3% YoY) in 2026 [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 93 5 billion (+9 1% YoY) in 2025 and RMB 102 0 billion (+9 0% YoY) in 2026 [7] - EBITDA is forecasted to grow to RMB 127 1 billion in 2025 and RMB 138 9 billion in 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of 1440 CNY [7] Core Views - The company held its 2025 distributor conference, emphasizing growth driven by volume increases [1] - The company aims to achieve a growth rate for its series liquor products that is not lower than the average growth rate of the top five listed companies [2] - The company plans to focus on three major product lines: **Moutai 1935**, **Prince**, and **Hanjiang**, aiming to create three 10-billion CNY business units [3] - The company will continue to optimize its product matrix and enhance brand value, with a focus on transitioning its customer base to target "new business" groups [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow by 15%, 9%, and 8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, reaching 1735 billion CNY, 1890 billion CNY, and 2047 billion CNY respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow by 15%, 9%, and 8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, reaching 858 billion CNY, 935 billion CNY, and 1013 billion CNY respectively [4] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 21X, 19X, and 18X for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4] Product Strategy - The company will focus on building a product cluster around **Moutai 1935**, aiming to develop it into a core product line [3] - **Prince** liquor will be developed into the second 10-billion CNY product within two years, with a focus on high-end and low-alcohol variants [3] - The company plans to reduce the market supply of **Hanjiang (Jiangxin Chuan)** in 2025 [3] Channel Strategy - The company will continue to develop a matrix-style channel strategy, with plans to expand its sales team to support a 20-billion CNY sales scale [3] - The company will adjust the product structure of its self-operated and social channels to ensure market stability [3] Market Activities - The company plans to increase market activity spending to approximately 675 million CNY in 2025, an 83% year-on-year increase [4] - New products, including the **Yisi Snake Year Zodiac Wine** and **Shengle Feitian Moutai**, will be launched on January 5, 2025 [4] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue in 2023 was 15056033 million CNY, with a growth rate of 1804% [6] - EBITDA for 2023 was 10396614 million CNY, with a projected growth to 11835591 million CNY in 2024 [6] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was 7473407 million CNY, with a projected growth to 8581185 million CNY in 2024 [6] Industry and Market Position - The company operates in the **Food & Beverage/Alcohol II** industry [7] - The company's A-share market capitalization is 180892483 million CNY, with a total share capital of 125620 million shares [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519) with a target price of —— yuan over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of approximately 1738 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 15.44%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 857 billion yuan, up by about 14.67% [6]. - The company successfully completed its annual targets for 2024 despite challenges in the macroeconomic environment and the liquor industry cycle, focusing on consumer needs and market challenges [6]. - For 2025, the company aims to address the "supply-demand mismatch" issue and plans to slightly increase the domestic market supply of Moutai liquor compared to 2024 [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Guizhou Moutai are as follows: - 2023A: 1505.60 billion yuan - 2024E: 1737.97 billion yuan (growth rate: 15.43%) - 2025E: 1912.10 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.02%) - 2026E: 2093.94 billion yuan (growth rate: 9.51%) [2][7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected as: - 2023A: 747.34 billion yuan - 2024E: 857.07 billion yuan (growth rate: 14.68%) - 2025E: 945.93 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.37%) - 2026E: 1044.39 billion yuan (growth rate: 10.41%) [2][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2023A: 59.49 yuan - 2024E: 68.23 yuan - 2025E: 75.30 yuan - 2026E: 83.14 yuan [2][7] Market Position and Strategy - The company plans to develop new product sizes for Moutai liquor, including 750ml and 400ml bottles aimed at the dining and international markets, while maintaining a focus on its core products [6]. - The company aims for a growth rate of no less than 14% for its series of liquors in 2025, aligning with its average growth over the past five years [6]. - Guizhou Moutai's market strategy includes enhancing its self-operated and social distribution systems to improve overall competitiveness and market reach [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519 SH) [4] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai achieved a total operating revenue of approximately 173 8 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15 44%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of approximately 85 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14 67% [1] - The company successfully met its annual revenue growth target of 15% in 2024, with Moutai liquor and series liquor revenues increasing by 15 17% and 19 24% respectively [2] - The company is actively transforming to address industry challenges, focusing on consumer-centric marketing and supply-demand balance, with plans to increase the投放量 of Moutai liquor in 2025 and refine the product structure [3] Financial Performance - Estimated Q4 2024 revenue was 506 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12 0%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 248 7 billion yuan, up 13 8% year-on-year [1] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 49 08%, an increase of 0 77 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company produced approximately 5 63 million tons of Moutai liquor base liquor in 2024, a decrease of 1 58% compared to 2023, while series liquor base liquor production increased by 12 0% to 4 81 million tons [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on挖掘新消费需求 and transforming its customer base, particularly targeting the "new business" demographic [3] - Moutai plans to adjust the投放结构 of aged and珍品 Moutai products, with large规格飞天茅台 and文创 products expected to contribute to增量 [3] - The series liquor strategy revolves around Moutai 1935 as the core product, supported by Moutai王子酒 and汉酱酒, with increased market费用投入 and营销队伍 [3] Valuation and Forecast - The report slightly下调 the 2024-2026 net profit forecasts to 856 7/944 9/1041 2 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 0 8%/2 1%/3 1% from previous estimates [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 22/20/18 times for 2024-2026 [4] - The company has announced a cash dividend ratio of no less than 75% for 2024-2026, with an interim dividend of approximately 30 billion yuan in 2024 and a share回购计划 of 3-6 billion yuan [4] Market Data - The total market capitalization of Kweichow Moutai is approximately 1 869 trillion yuan, with a total share capital of 1 256 billion shares [6] - The stock's one-year low/high range is 1 226 65/1 880 59 yuan, with a three-month turnover rate of 19 51% [6]