山东黄金公告，山金国际拟以自有资金对其全资子公司海南盛蔚增资14亿元，全部计入资本公积，不增 加其注册资本。本次增资后，山金国际仍直接持有海南盛蔚100%股权。增资目的是为了增强海南盛蔚 经营实力和推动其境外子公司项目建设。增资事项已经公司董事会审议通过，无需提交股东会审议。本 次增资不构成重大资产重组，亦不构成关联交易。 ...

山东黄金公告称，为满足全资子公司山东黄金香港公司资金需求，公司拟为其向银团及招商银行伦敦分 行申请的2.5亿美元融资提供连带责任保证担保，无反担保。公司2025年度为该子公司提供的担保额度 不超18亿美元，本次担保前余额为9.61亿美元，担保后为12.11亿美元，剩余可用额度5.89亿美元。截至 公告日，公司对外担保总额95.47亿元，占最近一期经审计净资产的25.26%，无逾期担保。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks collectively declined ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, indicating market sensitivity to upcoming monetary policy announcements [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Zijin Mining International (02259) fell by 4.07%, trading at 141.5 HKD - Shandong Gold (01787) decreased by 3.68%, trading at 33.52 HKD - China Silver Group (00815) dropped by 2.82%, trading at 0.69 HKD - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) declined by 1.84%, trading at 29.84 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures noted that the long-term logic for rising precious metal prices remains solid, but short-term market pricing may be overly optimistic, with potential risks of a market correction if the Fed's dovish stance is less than expected [1] - Xinda Futures projected that gold prices are likely to continue a high-level oscillation in the short term, with the true direction depending on the upcoming interest rate meeting [1] - Current market expectations for a rate cut in December are well-formed, which may limit upward price movement, while downward support is provided by weak economic data and expectations of a long-term easing path [1]

消息面上，北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储将公布12月利率决议，随后美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发 布会。铜冠金源期货认为，贵金属价格长期上涨的逻辑依然坚实，但短期市场对于利多的定价已较为充 分，也需警惕降息靴子落地后，或者鲍威尔会后降息鸽派不及预期而导致市场情绪变化出现的回调风 险。 信达期货指出，展望未来，短期来看，金价大概率延续高位震荡格局，但真正的方向选择将取决于本周 议息会议。市场当前对于12月降息已形成较充分预期，价格上行空间受到一定压制，而下方支撑来自经 济数据偏弱与中长期宽松路径的预期。重点关注鲍威尔的前瞻指引是否重塑市场对明年利率路径的预 期，这将决定金价能否摆脱区间格局、迎来新的趋势方向。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股集体走低，截至发稿，紫金黄金国际(02259)跌4.07%，报141.5港元；山东黄 金(01787)跌3.68%，报33.52港元；中国白银集团(00815)跌2.82%，报0.69港元；赤峰黄金(06693)跌 1.84%，报29.84港元。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold - The weakening of the US dollar credit remains the core logic for gold pricing in 2025, with a notable negative correlation between gold prices and the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves [11][12] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle into 2026, which may support gold prices, especially with concerns over the independence of monetary policy due to potential changes in leadership [13][15] - The long-term trend of weakening US dollar credit is not expected to change, with the US fiscal deficit projected to reach 6.9% of GDP in 2024, indicating ongoing structural issues in the US fiscal system [16][17] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Supply constraints for copper are expected to intensify, with significant disruptions in overseas copper mining projects leading to a projected decrease in output by over 100,000 tons in 2025 [23][24] - The demand for copper is anticipated to grow significantly due to the rise of AI and data centers, with each MW of installed capacity requiring approximately 27 tons of copper [27][28] - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by a weak dollar and continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to drive copper prices upward [29][31] Group 3: Energy Metals - The supply of lithium and cobalt is expected to improve significantly due to the end of overseas capacity clearances and the implementation of supply constraint policies by major producing countries [33] - The demand for energy metals is projected to benefit from the resilience of battery technologies and the growth of the energy storage sector, leading to a positive supply-demand dynamic [33][34] Group 4: Tin - The supply of tin is tightening due to regulatory changes in Indonesia and ongoing production disruptions in Myanmar, with exports from Indonesia declining by approximately 20% year-on-year [45][46] - The global demand for refined tin is expected to grow, particularly in the electronics sector, driven by high semiconductor sales and the increasing use of tin solder in AI and high-performance computing applications [51]

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 - 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 供应格局趋紧，工业金属价格大幅 上行 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 行 业 点 评 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 有色金属 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37% ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall materials index (000987) experienced a rise of 2.13% on December 5, closing at 4681.4 points, with a total trading volume of 125.67 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.57% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The index saw 137 stocks increase in value, with International Composite Materials leading the gainers at a 20.03% increase, while 24 stocks declined, with Multi-Fluorine leading the losses at a 2.46% decrease [1] - The top ten constituent stocks of the index include Zijin Mining, Wanhua Chemical, and others, with Zijin Mining holding the largest weight at 11.36% and a price increase of 2.05% [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds into the index's constituent stocks totaled 3.025 billion yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 488 million yuan [3] - The detailed capital flow indicates that Zijin Mining had a net inflow of 731 million yuan from main funds, while it faced a net outflow of 2.01 billion yuan from retail investors [3] Group 3: Index Adjustments - Recent adjustments to the index included the addition of 16 new stocks and the removal of 5 stocks, effective December 15, 2025 [4] - Newly added stocks include companies like Shangwei New Materials and Lianrui New Materials, while stocks such as Jinhui Co. and Sanyou Chemical were removed from the index [4]

Core Insights - The precious metals sector experienced a slight increase of 0.12% on December 5, with Xiaocheng Technology leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3902.81, up 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13147.68, up 1.08% [1] Precious Metals Sector Performance - Xiaocheng Technology (300139) saw a significant rise of 14.62%, closing at 27.28 with a trading volume of 905,700 shares and a transaction value of 2.424 billion [1] - Sichuan Gold (001337) increased by 4.16%, closing at 28.03 with a trading volume of 161,100 shares [1] - Other notable performers included Hengbang Shares (002237) up 3.56%, Western Gold (601069) up 3.53%, and Zhongjin Gold (600489) up 3.25% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The precious metals sector saw a net inflow of 464 million in main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 28.84 million [1] - Xiaocheng Technology had a main fund net inflow of 2.441 billion, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 16.54 million [2] - Other companies like Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Gold also experienced mixed capital flows, with varying levels of net inflow and outflow from main and retail investors [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the non-ferrous metal industry index is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by rising prices of industrial metals like copper and aluminum, with expectations of sustained price increases in the long term [1] - As of December 5, 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) rose by 1.10%, with notable increases in stocks such as Zhongfu Industrial (600595) up 8.21%, Nanshan Aluminum (600219) up 6.72%, and Shenhuo Co. (000933) up 4.42% [1] - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) also saw an increase of 0.79%, marking its third consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 1.79 yuan [1] Group 2 - Factors such as the demand from new energy vehicles, data centers, and the renewal of power grids in Europe and the US are expected to significantly increase the demand for copper and aluminum [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index as of November 28, 2025, include Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Northern Rare Earth (600111), collectively accounting for 52.34% of the index [2] - The non-ferrous ETF fund closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1]

Group 1 - Precious metals sector is leading the market with gold showing significant strength, particularly with Xiaocheng Technology surging over 13% [1] - Other companies in the gold sector such as Western Gold, Sichuan Gold, and China Gold are also experiencing gains [1] Group 2 - Xiaocheng Technology's stock price increased by 13.45%, reaching 27.00 [2] - Western Gold's stock rose by 1.67%, with a current price of 26.24 [2] - Sichuan Gold's stock saw a 1.45% increase, now priced at 27.30 [2] - Other notable companies include Hengbang Shares (+1.34% to 12.82), China Gold (+0.68% to 22.28), and Hunan Gold (+0.48% to 21.12) [2]