消息面上，12月29日早间，贵金属市场在短线冲高后直线跳水，其中，现货黄金一度失守4480美元/盎 司，COMEX黄金则一度跌破4500美元关口。东吴证券指出，短期来看，26Q1美国的宽财政（政府停摆 结束）、宽货币（近期75bps降息）与季节性（1-2月非农初值与CPI易超预期）易延缓美联储的降息节 奏，从而抬升利率预期。叠加特朗普计划的2026年4月访华行程，市场风险偏好或进一步改善，从而构 成对金价的利空逻辑。但从中长期来看，特朗普对美联储独立性的干预及美国债务可持续性问题带来的 美元信用风险，仍将令全球央行的购金潮持续。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股普遍走低，截至发稿，紫金黄金国际(02259)跌5.41%，报145.2港元；山东黄 金(01787)跌4.47%，报35.5港元；中国黄金国际(02099)跌4.14%，报155.2港元；赤峰黄金(06693)跌 4.15%，报30.52港元。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant rise in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the index and various stocks experiencing notable gains, particularly in silver and copper prices reaching historical highs [1][2]. - The non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) increased by 0.56%, with key stocks such as Silver Holdings (601212) up by 10.05% and Jiangxi Copper (600362) up by 4.68% [1]. - The surge in precious metals, especially silver, is attributed to lower-than-expected inflation data, which has fueled expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 52.34% of the index, with major players including Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [3]. - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index and includes 50 prominent securities from the sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal industry [2][4].

截至12月24日，中证申万有色金属指数年内涨幅高达88%，创下近年来罕见的年度涨幅纪录。伦敦现货 黄金站上4500美元/盎司，LME铜价突破1.21万美元/吨，纽约银年内涨幅翻倍，钴价从年初16万元/吨反 弹至年末超40万元/吨，一系列核心品种价格屡破历史新高。 这场行情早已超越传统供需驱动的周期逻辑，成为全球产业链重构、AI浪潮崛起与央行资产配置调整 共同作用的必然结果。有色金属行业正从"被动跟随周期的工业原料"，向"主动定义价值的战略核心资 源"完成深刻转型。 头部企业凭借资源卡位与产业链一体化优势，实现股价与业绩的"戴维斯双击"，而AI、新能源等新兴领 域的需求爆发，更让钨、钽、钴等品种迎来价值重估。 华夏时报记者 张蓓 见习记者 黄指南 深圳报道 周期迭代藏机遇，资源重估启新程。 2025年资本市场的收官钟声临近，有色金属板块以领涨主线姿态贯穿全年，勾勒出全年资本市场的景气 主线。 在全球经济转型与技术革命的交汇点上，2025年的金属牛市不仅是价格的狂欢，更是行业高质量发展的 新起点，其背后的供需重构与企业转型逻辑，正重塑全球有色金属产业格局。 有色牛市下 金属行情分化与共性 供需两端的双向发力，是本 ...

信任命 2025 年 12 月 28 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 会属价格强势突破,看好春季行情 金属&新材料行业周报 20251222-20251226 本期投资提示: 我研究报 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 波段人分出品 申万宏源研究微信服务号 o 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 1.88%，深证成指上涨 3.53%，沪深 300 上涨 1.95%，有色金属（申 万) 指数上涨 6.43%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.48 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属上涨 4.06%，铝上涨 6.33%， 能源金属上涨 6.66%，小金属上涨 6.16%，铜上涨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals and new materials industry, indicating a favorable spring market [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the metals sector, with significant price increases across various metals, particularly copper, which saw an 8.15% increase week-on-week. The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals index outperformed the broader market indices [4][10]. - The report suggests that the recent trends in monetary policy, including expectations of interest rate cuts, will support the upward movement of metal prices, particularly gold and silver, which are expected to attract more investment [4][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-demand dynamics in the metals market, with specific recommendations for companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [4][16]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.53%. The non-ferrous metals index surged by 6.43%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.48 percentage points [5]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 93.94%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 by 75.59 percentage points [9]. Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals saw notable price changes, with copper prices increasing by 2.37% week-on-week. Gold prices rose by 4.42%, and silver prices surged by 18.22% [4][16]. - Lithium prices also experienced significant increases, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 15.38% [4][20]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Copper supply is under pressure, with domestic social inventory increasing to 194,000 tons, while demand remains stable with operating rates for copper products around 60% [33]. - The aluminum sector is facing a tightening supply-demand balance, with domestic aluminum production showing a slight increase, but downstream processing rates declining [48]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and favorable positioning in the current market environment, such as Zijin Mining, Yunnan Tin, and China Molybdenum [21][22]. - Specific companies in the precious metals sector, such as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold, are highlighted for their potential to benefit from rising gold prices [4][24].

Core Viewpoint - The conference focused on promoting the integration of technological innovation and industrial development among state-owned enterprises in Shandong Province, emphasizing the establishment of collaborative innovation ecosystems [1]. Group 1: Establishment of Innovation Alliances - The first batch of innovation alliances among Shandong state-owned enterprises was officially established, led by ten companies including Shandong Gold and Inspur Group, aiming to strengthen core technology breakthroughs through collaboration with universities and research institutions [3]. - Ten major innovative achievements from state-owned enterprises were announced, covering advanced equipment, new energy, new materials, and biomedicine, showcasing the province's commitment to innovation in strategic emerging industries [3]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - Shandong Steel Group's technology for rapid transition and stable rolling of high-strength steel has improved specification switching efficiency by 28.6%, generating direct economic benefits exceeding 220 million yuan [3]. - Shandong Gold Group's third-generation tailings filling technology has reduced energy consumption by 70% and established a comprehensive data collection and intelligent control platform, addressing key challenges in tailings disposal and achieving international leading standards [3]. Group 3: Integration of Innovation Chains - The deep integration of the "four chains" (talent, education, industry, and innovation) is crucial for unlocking innovation potential and enhancing systemic capabilities, with exemplary cases presented at the conference [4]. - State-owned enterprises are integrating artificial intelligence into production and operations to reduce costs and innovate production models, with typical application scenarios in steel, mining, transportation, and equipment manufacturing being showcased [4]. Group 4: AI and Resource Sharing Platform - The provincial state-owned assets supervision and administration commission launched an "AI+" industry and innovation resource sharing service platform, developed by Inspur, to enhance AI application scenarios and promote resource sharing [5]. - The platform aims to support the digital transformation and collaborative innovation of state-owned enterprises by providing high-quality services and facilitating cooperation opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises [5].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market in 2025 has experienced an unprecedented surge, with international gold prices rising from $2,600 per ounce at the beginning of the year to $4,500 per ounce by December, marking an increase of over 70% [2][4]. Price Surge - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also seen significant increases, with prices per gram rising from around 800 yuan to over 1,400 yuan, and some high-end products exceeding 2,000 yuan per gram [2]. - The gold price has shown a remarkable increase of nearly 72% within a year, leading to a consumer rush driven by the mentality of "buying on the rise" [2]. Historical Context - The last time gold experienced such a dramatic annual increase was in the 1970s, but the current market dynamics are influenced by different factors, including geopolitical uncertainties and a weakening dollar [4]. - The World Gold Council attributes the strong performance of gold in 2025 to a combination of geopolitical and economic uncertainties, a weaker dollar, and the momentum of rising gold prices [4]. Consumer Behavior - The low-interest-rate environment has led to a shift in consumer behavior, with younger generations adopting new investment strategies, such as the "new three gold" model, which includes gold ETFs [5]. - There is a growing trend towards smaller gold items and high-premium ancient gold products, reflecting a change in consumer preferences [6]. Industry Dynamics - The continuous rise in gold prices has created challenges for downstream retail businesses, leading to high inventory levels and increased operational pressures [8]. - Upstream mining companies have benefited from the price surge, with major firms reporting significant profit increases, prompting them to expand resource acquisitions through mergers and acquisitions [7]. Retail Challenges - Retailers are facing multiple pressures, including high inventory levels and the need to close down franchise stores, as seen with major brands like Chow Tai Fook [8]. - Banks are also adjusting their gold investment thresholds in response to market risks, raising minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation plans [9]. Investment Risks - The surge in gold prices has led to risky investment behaviors, such as using consumer loans to purchase gold, which poses significant risks to investors [10]. - The phenomenon of bidding on judicial auction platforms for gold bars has created both opportunities and risks, with some investors experiencing significant losses due to impulsive bidding [10].

Group 1 - The Shandong Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting in Jinan to promote the construction of a technological innovation ecosystem for provincial enterprises [1] - Ten major innovative achievements from provincial enterprises were announced, including companies such as Shandong Commercial Group, Shandong Steel Group, and Shandong Gold [3] - The innovations cover advanced equipment, new energy, new materials, and biomedicine, reflecting significant breakthroughs in core technology and independent innovation capabilities over the past two years [3] Group 2 - The achievements demonstrate the innovative strength of provincial enterprises and highlight their commitment to supporting broader development goals [3]

Market Overview - The precious metals sector experienced a decline of 2.83% compared to the previous trading day, with Hunan Silver leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3959.62, up 0.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13531.41, up 0.33% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Hunan Silver (002716) closed at 6.48, down 4.00% with a trading volume of 1.72 million shares and a transaction value of 1.116 billion yuan [2] - Other notable declines include: - Hunan Gold (002155) down 2.54% with a transaction value of 888 million yuan [2] - Sichuan Gold (001337) down 2.29% with a transaction value of 324 million yuan [2] - Shandong Gold (600547) down 2.77% with a transaction value of 1.377 billion yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The precious metals sector saw a net outflow of 534 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 242 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks shows significant outflows for: - Hunan Silver with a net outflow of 89.75 million yuan [3] - Hunan Gold with a net outflow of 1.21 billion yuan [3] - Shandong Gold with a net outflow of 330.27 million yuan [3]

来源：环球网 【环球网消费报道 记者 刘晓旭】南海之滨，椰风轻拂。2025年12月12日，一场关乎黄金产业未来的思想盛宴在三亚拉开帷幕。由世界黄金协会与中国黄金 协会联合主办的"2025黄金行业可持续发展大会"在此隆重举行。在全球ESG浪潮奔涌与"双碳"目标深入推进的时代背景下，本次大会汇聚国内外行业领袖、 顶尖学者与资深媒体，共同探讨黄金行业可持续增长的新路径，共建负责任的黄金产业生态，推动整个产业链向善而行。 大会伊始，主持人世界黄金协会中国区CEO王立新便点明了会议的深远意义。他提到，2025年是挑战与机遇并存的关键之年，可持续发展已从行业共识上升 为全球行动，这一议题正深刻重塑着全球黄金产业的格局。 在随后的主旨演讲环节，中国黄金、山东黄金、紫金矿业、山东招金四大黄金巨头的领军人物联袂登场，奉献了一场关于战略、实践与未来的深度对话，为 中国黄金产业的可持续发展之路提供了清晰的路线图和生动的实践样本。 作为行业的压舱石和领航者，四大黄金集团从各自企业的实践出发，系统阐述了对可持续发展的深刻理解与战略布局，展现了新时代中国黄金企业的责任与 担当。 0:00 战略引领，合规筑基：中金黄金的"新篇章"之道 中 ...